The midpoint of the 2024 season gives us the perfect chance to reflect and forecast.
What was rightfully billed as a historic season, because of mass realignment and the 12-team College Football Playoff, has blown away expectations so far. There have been thrilling games at the top, like Georgia-Alabama and Ohio State-Oregon. The nation's top team is a conference newbie in Texas, which has its eyes set on its first national title in 19 years. The season also has delivered stars such as Boise State's Ashton Jeanty and Colorado's Travis Hunter who don't play for blue blood programs, as well as Heisman-contending quarterbacks at powerhouses like Miami's Cam Ward and Oregon's Dillon Gabriel. Indiana and Vanderbilt are among the nation's best storylines, and so is Louisiana-Monroe. Army and Navy are 6-0 and 5-0, respectively, for the first time since 1945, and ranked in the same AP Poll for the first time since 1960. Other unbeatens include BYU, Pitt and Iowa State.
The playoff possibilities are plentiful, and not only in the SEC and Big Ten.
There's also a lot to look forward to, beginning in Week 8. The SEC will be front and center as top-ranked Texas hosts No. 5 Georgia, while South Dakota natives Kalen DeBoer and Josh Heupel lead their Alabama and Tennessee teams into a rivalry with plenty of CFP implications. Indiana will try to stay perfect against a Nebraska squad seeking bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016. The slate also includes sneaky good matchups like Miami at Louisville, Notre Dame at Georgia Tech and LSU at Arkansas.
As always, college football insiders Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg have been talking to sources to get their reactions to what unfolded last week, and the storylines to watch in Week 8.
Jump to a section:
National title contenders
Which conference has benefitted most from realignment
Breakout coaches
This weekend's SEC matchups
Emptying the notebook
Midway through the season, who are the national title contenders?
Dinich: This is why the 12-team field is so much fun ... according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are seven teams with at least an 11% chance to reach the national championship game (Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State and Miami). Given how many upsets have already occurred, I'd add Clemson to the list of possibilities because of its likely path to the ACC championship game. As to who can actually WIN it? I think there are three -- Texas, Oregon and Ohio State. I still think the Buckeyes will win the Big Ten title -- it's so hard to beat a team twice -- and I'm still not convinced Penn State is as good as its ranking. Ohio State's one-point loss on the road was also in part a result of Oregon's cunning use of 12 defenders on the field with 10 seconds left on the clock. What happened in Eugene doesn't detract from Ohio State's talent -- it only fuels the fire.
Rittenberg: Oregon really needed the Ohio State win -- especially in a seesaw game where margins became so thin -- to validate itself as a title contender and a program that can thrive in the biggest moments. "They played every second of this game," Oregon coach Dan Lanning told me. "They didn't leave any of it on the table, gave it their all, and that's always good to see." Lanning added that Oregon has trimmed its self-inflicted errors since the start of the season. Other than wide receiver Traeshon Holden being ejected for spitting, Oregon had just two other penalties, as opposed to eight for Ohio State. After drawing 17 penalties in its first two games, Oregon has 17 total in its past four games. "We eliminated those for the most part on Saturday, and then we eliminated explosive plays on defense," Lanning said. "The combination of those two things creates success."
What stands out about your list, HD, is only one true title contender from the SEC in Texas. Georgia still could enter that top tier, especially as it faces the Longhorns this week, but the Bulldogs aren't nearly as sharp on defense as they looked early in the season. Could we view the Alabama-Tennessee winner differently come Saturday night? It's certainly possible.
Which conference has benefited most from an offseason of realignment?
Rittenberg: Although the SEC added a program in Texas that is ready-made for national championship contention, the Big Ten's total haul might be more beneficial, even as USC and Washington are going through degrees of transition. Oregon is legitimate and gave Ohio State the type of challenge it rarely saw from previous Big Ten teams other than Michigan and Penn State. USC isn't going to the CFP but really pushed Penn State in last week's game. As a Penn State source told me this week: "We needed to win a game like that so bad." While the total output of CFP teams from the Big Ten might not be that high, the contenders, including Oregon, are benefiting from the league's new structure.
"We use it all the time in recruiting, it's just an exciting time," Illinois coach Bret Bielema, whose team visits Oregon next week, told ESPN. "As these games pop up, everybody's like, 'What? That's a conference game?' People get used to it. You can turn on Penn State-USC and see it's a conference game and a little bit later, watch Ohio State play Oregon. I mean, how great is that?"
Dinich: The SEC struck gold with Texas. The Longhorns are the No. 1 team in the country and have already made history less than two months into their debut. Texas became the first SEC team to score at least 250 points and allow fewer than 40 through the first six games of a season. The transfer of the Red River Rivalry game to the SEC was enhanced by its connection to the SEC race, and while the SEC didn't add as many teams as the Big Ten, it added one of the nation's best rivalries and renewed others like Texas-Arkansas and Texas-Texas A&M. Of the four teams that the Big Ten added, so far only Oregon is boosting the league's playoff depth, as Washington, USC and UCLA are in different places as programs right now. That doesn't mean it won't eventually pay dividends, but right now it's all sky miles.
Rittenberg: The thing we can't ignore is that Oklahoma, a CFP regular not long ago, seems miles behind Texas and the SEC's top group. The Big 12 also continues to benefit from its new additions, especially after losing its two mega brands. Colorado is bringing a brighter spotlight to the league, largely because of coach Deion Sanders and the team's superstars, Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, but also an improved team. BYU has found its groove in its second year in the league, helping to offset what likely will be a down year for Utah. Arizona State also is on the rise under 34-year-old coach Kenny Dillingham. The depth in the Big 12 has been enhanced, and helps increase the week-to-week drama and intrigue.
Dinich: No discounting the Big 12's depth and exciting race, BUT ... that league still needs a brand-name playoff contender to emerge and do it consistently. That's what it lost when OU and Texas left. What happened to Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy? Utah's Kyle Whittingham has one foot out the door to retirement. Can it be Colorado? Sure, as long as Deion Sanders sticks around to be the face of the program -- and the league.
Which first-year coach looks like a home run?
Dinich: It has to be Indiana's Curt Cignetti. The blue-collar Pittsburgh native is confident but not cocky, does it his way and his way works -- everywhere he's been.
"It's pretty simple," he says of his recruiting pitch, "I win. Google me."
Over the span of a 41-year coaching career, Cignetti came to IU with a 119-35 record, having won 77.3% of his games -- above the required .600 College of Football Hall of Fame. Now he's the only Indiana head coach to start 6-0. The Hoosiers' six-game winning streak is the longest since an eight-game stretch during the 1967 season.
"He has done absolutely everything he said he would do during our discussions while interviewing him," Indiana athletic director Scott Dolson told ESPN. "He is completely authentic, which is why I believe our students, alumni and fans have immediately connected with him."
He's not only winning, he's entertaining, he's blunt and it started at Big Ten media days when he took the big stage and spoke about expectations for this season.
"You can't put self-imposed limitations," he said. "Oh, if we got to a bowl it's a great year. Bulls---. That ain't the goal. The goal is to be the best."
Three months later, he's undefeated, and while IU might not be the best in the country -- Dolson's hire is proving to be.
Rittenberg: HD, I've already ordered these T-shirts for you and the rest of the family. Cignetti has changed the mood around Indiana football, but he has some company in the national coach of the year race.
People need to take notice of what Bryant Vincent is doing at Louisiana-Monroe, which for years had been at or near the bottom of FBS programs in resources and performance. ULM is 5-1 with its only loss coming at Texas. The team hasn't made a bowl game since 2012, also the last time it finished with a winning record in the Sun Belt. ULM went 10-36 in the four seasons before Vincent arrived. Vincent has spent his career rebuilding teams, from high schools in Alabama to South Alabama to UAB, where he twice served as offensive coordinator and was interim head coach in 2022, going 7-6 with a bowl win, but didn't get the permanent job.
"I walked in Day 1 and I was comfortable, because I was fully aware of what I was getting myself into," Vincent told ESPN. "I knew that we were going to have to make things happen. The program had been down for a lot of years. You have to establish discipline and toughness, first and foremost, and relationships. You've got to get into the heart and the soul of a player, before you can get them to be an elite player."
Vincent sought out "captain-type players" and conducted grueling "House of Pain" 6 a.m. workouts each Friday during the offseason. The result is a team that wins with defense (ULM has allowed only 13.8 points per game in its five wins) and a solid run game led by Ahmad Hardy. Vincent said ULM had its best practice week after being drubbed 51-3 at Texas, and then continued to elevate its preparation following a 21-19 win against James Madison that made the Warhawks 4-1 for the first time as an FBS team.
"Our kids are texting me at 2:30 in the morning saying, 'Coach, don't take anything off of us. Don't let up, we want it, let's go,'" Vincent said. "For that to happen, I went, 'Maybe this is different.' They've been resilient, they are hungry, they have really continued to surpass what I thought we would get."
Who will we learn the most about this Saturday in the SEC?
Rittenberg: Tennessee feels like it has reached an inflection point. The Vols have looked like two different offenses, scoring 191 points in their first three games and 62 points in their three SEC contests. Tennessee's defense has been consistently strong, ranking second nationally in yards allowed (249.8 ypg), yards per play allowed (4.04) and third-down conversions allowed (24.1%), and fourth in points allowed (10.7 ppg). But the Vols haven't seen an offense like Alabama's, which is tied for 15th nationally in plays of 20 yards or longer (37). Tennessee just lost standout linebacker Keenan Pili for the season and will need strong performances from a secondary that features several sophomores and freshmen at cornerback, including Oregon State transfer Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III.
"Those guys, we were hoping, but obviously until they get into the games, we don't know," defensive coordinator Tim Banks told ESPN. "The corners have been really consistent. They're long guys, they can run and they really hold up in coverage. I know our front gets a lot of the attention, rightfully so, but the key to the season has been how we've played on the back end, particularly with our corners."
Dinich: Georgia. We saw some guts in the second-half near-comeback against Alabama, but we haven't seen the dominant Dawgs since the season-opener against Clemson. Quarterback Carson Beck was supposed to be a steady presence, but he has struggled at times and made some uncharacteristic mistakes. If Georgia can go into Austin and beat the No. 1 team in the country, that changes the narrative around those guys this season -- and it changes the playoff picture.
On the flip side, this is a chance for Texas to assert itself as the best team in the SEC -- its first season in the league. Georgia is 29-3 against the SEC in the past four seasons, with all three losses coming against Alabama.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart told me that feeling the pressure of avoiding a second loss Saturday at Texas doesn't help -- and it's no different than in the four-team playoff, where there was zero margin for error each week.
"It's no different than years past, where you were going into every game saying, 'Oh God, I got to win or I'm out,'" he said. "Now it's like, 'Ok, I can't lose two, I can't lose two.' Nobody really knows that. Everybody can speculate -- and that's your job to do it -- but at the end of the day, you have to think what is going to make me play the best in this game? And I don't think for once second thinking about that helps you play better, I really don't. We only control how we play and we've got to do a great job of worrying about that."
Rittenberg: Texas has been dominant, but the Longhorns haven't faced a truly complete offense yet, certainly not one led by a quarterback like Beck and with dangerous perimeter players. Texas lost two massive players of its defensive line in Byron Murphy II, an NFL first-round draft pick, and T'Vondre Sweat, the 2023 Outland Trophy winner and a second-round draft pick. But the Longhorns have held up well throughout their front, tying for 10th nationally in fewest runs allowed of 10 yards or longer (16), and tied for first in completions allowed of 20 yards or longer (8).
"We probably have more depth on the interior defensive line than people gave us credit for coming into the season," Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told me. "Naturally, Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton [are back], we brought in a few transfers in Jermayne Lole, Bill Norton and Tia Savea. There's been an emergence of a younger player in Aaron Bryant. We've really improved our edges, returning Barryn Sorrell and Ethan Burke has been great. The addition of Trey Moore and Colin Simmons has been helpful. ... Our front has performed at a pretty high level so far."
Dinich: Smart told me "there's a reason why they're No. 1 in the country in total defense, because they're very sound in what they do." He said his team hasn't played a complete game offensively yet, which is why Smart said he wants to see the offense "stay on schedule, stay ahead of the sticks."
"That's what really hurt us in the Alabama game," he said. "We took a couple of shots early and missed and didn't make them. So we're in second-and-long a lot of the game. That happened against Kentucky. When we've had successful first- and second-down plays, we're a pretty good team on third down and six or less, seven or less."
Smart was quick to point out that Georgia's running game, which is generating the lowest yards per game it has been in three seasons (134 ypg/ No. 92 in the FBS), is statistically "misleading."
"When you're down 28 to Alabama, you can't run the ball," he said. "You've got to leave your game plan. We actually ran the ball better in that game than we did against Kentucky, but we had to abort it because our defense and turnovers kind of cost us. We had a lot of blowouts in the last three years early in the season, in which you finish off the fourth quarter and you're running the ball. I wish we had more explosives, but in a lot of ways, we're running the ball more efficiently this year than we have in the past."
Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week/what's the best thing you've heard?
Rittenberg
Bielema credits Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer's first-half success to three areas: efficiency on early downs, situational understanding on third down and "making the best of a bad situation." One surfaced in last week's 50-49 win against Purdue as Illinois, which had blown a 27-3 lead and needed a field goal to force overtime. Facing third-and-17 near midfield with 14 seconds left, Illinois called a deep over route to reach field goal range, but wide receiver Hank Beatty didn't free up immediately and Altmyer was being pressured, forcing him to scramble toward the sideline.
"He was rolling to his left as a righty and then Hank Beatty, the whole thing pops," Bielema told ESPN. "You have a quarterback doing those types of things in those types of moments, that's when you've got something. Luke had a great quote the other day. He said, 'At times, it may not always be pretty, but the results are pretty good.' That comes from confidence and execution."
Altmyer has 14 touchdown passes, surpassing his season total from 2023, and only one interception in 164 attempts. His next challenge is generating more points against a Michigan defense featuring likely first-round draft picks in cornerback Will Johnson and defensive tackle Mason Graham. The Wolverines are surprisingly 110th nationally against the pass, and Illinois has good depth at receiver.
"We've been playing some pretty good teams, and obviously Saturday's not going to be any changeup," Bielema said. "As a quarterback, he takes a lot of pride playing his best against the best."
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty leads the nation in most significant rushing categories, but not forced missed tackles, which assesses both broken tackles and tackles evaded. Arizona State senior Cam Skattebo has 49, one more than Jeanty and is four ahead of North Carolina's Omarion Hampton.
Skattebo, who ranks fifth nationally with 773 rushing yards, showcased his tackle-breaking/evading brilliance last week against Utah, especially on a 50-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter that gave ASU the lead for good, and again on a 47-yard score that put the game away. But the reason for Skattebo's success in and around contact might surprise you.
"He has always had elite contact balance, but before he'd have elite contact balance, and a big play would be 14 yards," Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham told ESPN. "Now he has the speed to split a defender or outrun a guy from behind. That D-lineman would have swiped his foot last year, and it would have been an 18-yard, big-time run. Now it's a 40-yard touchdown, because he has that speed."
Dillingham said Skattebo dropped body fat and spent the offseason focused on elevating his speed. Skattebo has 602 rushing yards in his last three home games.
Oregon's 12 men on the field penalty at the end of the Ohio State win, which cost the Ducks 5 yards but bled four precious seconds off of the clock, understandably generated buzz in the coaching community. Lanning told me that while he doesn't like to talk much about in-game strategy, Oregon integrates different potential scenarios into its Friday walkthroughs. "We spend a lot of time on different things, and when they pop up, they can be advantageous," Lanning said.
A Power 4 defensive coordinator said he had discussed employing the 12-man penalty but saw it as "unethical" and ultimately did not go forward. But the coach added, "It's smart because it's a loophole."
"When it happened after a timeout, I'm thinking, 'This is on purpose, there's no way they screwed it up,'" the coach added. "They were jockeying some of the guys, running them off, making it seem like they didn't really know and were confused. And [Ohio State] took it hook, line and sinker."
Dinich
In the close home win against South Carolina, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe was sacked four times -- more than in any other game this season. Coach Kalen DeBoer said the Tide has "done a pretty good job of protecting Jalen for the most part."
"He's become better at understanding our offense and protections, and setting them, and knowing when he needs to get rid of it quick and getting us in the right play call," DeBoer said. "I feel like we're in a good spot. I know there was four sacks this last weekend, but when you really dive into what those sacks where, there's some things we can continue to do to make sure that doesn't happen. For us it really comes down to being able to be in down and distances that aren't obvious pass situations."
Bama will face another elite defense Saturday against Tennessee in a critical game that will impact the SEC and CFP races. DeBoer said that overall, Alabama isn't very far off from being where he wants it.
"There's very few if any teams that are complete across the board and totally in sync," he said. "That's why you practice, that's why you continue to work. I believe in our guys, I really do. They're sticking through everything - whether it's in the course of a game or it's week-to-week. They know what we're capable of. That's really the truth."
Arkansas coach Sam Pittman told me the win against Tennessee was proof to his players that they can beat anyone if they don't lose the turnover battle. With no turnovers against the Vols and fewer penalties, Pittman is hoping they can use that recipe to beat LSU in what would be a second straight stunner.
"I think that was the biggest thing coming from that win, was that the old man's right -- if we do this and this, we've got a good enough team and good enough players that we can go out and compete against anybody," Pittman said. "And so I think that validated what we've been preaching about turnovers, effort and playing smart ball, and you have to do that in practice."
With projected first-round NFL draft pick Benjamin Morrison out for the rest of the season with a hip injury, Notre Dame is turning to freshman Leonard Moore to step into that starting role at cornerback -- and defensive coordinator Al Golden told ESPN Moore is ready.
"The biggest thing with him, the first word that comes to mind is maturity," Golden said. "He's been really mature since he's been here. He works really hard at it. He's got length. He supports the run really well. He's strong at the point of attack. He spends a lot of time on it ... the game means a lot to him. He's not about a lot of nonsense. He's very focused."
Moore started against Louisville and was in the rotation before, but will now step into the spotlight against Georgia Tech in Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium. While the change happens in the secondary, Golden said one of the strengths of the defense has been Notre Dame's defensive tackles, which has helped against the run -- and something they will focus on against Georgia Tech.
"They run the ball really, really well," he said. "They like to possess the ball and try to win the time of possession and convert first downs and hold onto the ball. They have a really good scheme."
Speaking of Notre Dame, Texas A&M's only loss of the season was in the season-opener to the Irish. Since then, the Aggies have reeled off five straight wins, including a 41-10 dismantling of Mizzou that could position them for a surprise postseason run in the second half of the season.
Coach Mike Elko laughed when he said he keeps trying to tell his players that "no one's paying attention," to them, but he does talk about what got them to this point -- daily growth and improvement.
"We all in this building believe that the best version of this football team has a very high ceiling," he said, "has a ceiling that could be in the playoff, has a ceiling that can be in Atlanta for the SEC title game, BUT, going all the way back to February, there was a lot of work that had to happen for us to hit that ceiling. Even now, six games in, there's still a lot of work that has to happen for us to hit that ceiling. We've talked about it in that regard."
Elko said there's been a process of getting more comfortable in the schemes of the new coaching staff, all three phases of the game and finding a rhythm on offense and communication on defense. It's way too early, though, he said, to call the win against Mizzou a "turning point."
"We've played well in spurts," he said. "If you look at the first three quarters against Florida, we played really well. If you look at the second half of the Arkansas game, and then against Missouri we finally put it all together and played good for four quarters, so that's what we got."