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Rating succession plans for college football teams who had QBs drafted

Miller Moss, right, got a head start taking over for Caleb Williams with a record-setting performance in the Holiday Bowl. Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire

There are several reasons a Boise State running back (Ashton Jeanty) and a two-way star from Colorado (Travis Hunter) are the Heisman Trophy front-runners midway through the 2024 season. One undeniable factor is that the sport lost a historic group of quarterbacks to the NFL.

The collection included the past two Heisman Trophy winners (LSU's Jayden Daniels and USC's Caleb Williams), the NCAA's single-season completion percentage and career starts leader (Oregon's Bo Nix), the first quarterback in 26 years to lead Michigan to a national title (J.J. McCarthy) and the quarterback who led his team against Michigan in the championship (Washington's Michael Penix Jr.). Williams and Daniels went first and second in the draft, followed by North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye. Penix, McCarthy and Nix also heard their names early, marking the first time five quarterbacks were selected in the first 10 picks and six were taken in the first 12.

When the NFL draft concluded in Detroit, 11 quarterbacks had been picked, ranging from Williams at No. 1 to Tulane's Michael Pratt at No. 245.

Most of the quarterback departures were guaranteed or widely expected, especially given the players' success during the 2023 season. But teams approached these departures differently. Some went to the transfer portal for veterans, while others had clear successors in line to take over. Michigan had holdovers compete to replace McCarthy, while North Carolina had two transfers compete with a holdover to replace Maye.

About halfway through the season, it's time to evaluate the succession plans. Which teams have been best at overcoming the quarterback departures? Here's a look at all 11 teams, in order of where their departing quarterback was drafted.

USC Trojans

Replacing: Caleb Williams, 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, two-year starter, selected No. 1 by the Chicago Bears

Replacement: Miller Moss, redshirt junior, Williams' primary backup in 2022 and 2023

Competition/other options: After Moss' record bowl performance against Louisville, the top job seemed all but his. USC added Jayden Maiava, UNLV's starting quarterback in 2023, to provide some depth, but Moss went through the offseason as the team's projected starter.

How it's going: Moss' debut couldn't have gone much better. He followed the historic bowl output with an excellent showing in the season opener against LSU, where he completed 75% percent of his attempts, didn't throw an interception and led consecutive touchdown drives of 64 and 75 yards in the fourth quarter of a 27-20 win. Moss had another strong performance against Utah State, but his play has been choppier against Big Ten opponents. He has at least one interception in all four conference games, two in a 24-17 loss at Minnesota, and completed less than 59% of his attempts in losses to Michigan and Penn State. He generally played well against Penn State, a top-10 defense in most major categories, and his interception came in the final seconds as USC was driving inside Nittany Lions territory.

USC certainly misses more elusiveness at quarterback, as Williams had 21 rushing touchdowns in two seasons with the Trojans and extended plays with flair. Moss isn't a run threat and has only one rushing score in seven starts. He also plays behind a shaky offensive line that ranks 125th nationally in pressure rate and 132nd in pressures allowed. The big key for the second half will be improved efficiency, as he's only 61st in raw QBR and 79th in yards per dropback. USC's schedule has been challenging and might soften up a bit the next three games -- Maryland (road), Rutgers (home), Washington (road). The Trojans have been in position to win every game. They need Moss to go out and secure those victories.

"The quarterback, he's a good system fit," a Power 4 defensive coordinator said. "If everything isn't exactly where it's supposed to be, he struggles a little bit."

Review: Moss isn't the typical Lincoln Riley quarterback, but USC can win more games with him at the helm during the second half. He needs to regain his mojo in the coming weeks.


LSU Tigers

Replacing: Jayden Daniels, 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, two-year starter, selected No. 2 in NFL draft by the Washington Commanders

Replacement: Garrett Nussmeier, redshirt junior, Daniels' primary backup in 2022 and 2023

Competition/other options: Nussmeier had 395 passing yards and three touchdowns in LSU's bowl win over Wisconsin and was viewed as the clear starter during the offseason. LSU added Vanderbilt transfer AJ Swann, a former starter now sharing backup duties with redshirt freshman Rickie Collins.

How it's going: If you asked around 10:30 p.m. Saturday and again 30 minutes later, you likely would get vastly different answers. Nussmeier struggled mightily with his accuracy and timing for most of the Ole Miss game -- "one of the worst games in my career," he admitted afterward. He hit on only 2 of his first 14 passes 20 yards or longer, as LSU seemed headed for its second loss. But Nussmeier's resilience and talent showed in the clutch, as he led a 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to tie the game and then ended it with a back-shoulder throw to Kyren Lacy in the end zone in overtime. Tigers coach Brian Kelly said Nussmeier "grew more today than any time that he's been here." Nussmeier's overall production is encouraging: 1,989 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 6 interceptions.

Daniels set a nearly impossible standard at LSU, and Nussmeier is a different quarterback who primarily operates from the pocket. Before Saturday, when he completed only 22 of 51 pass attempts, he had connected on at least 60% of his passes in every game and twice eclipsed 72%. Greater efficiency will be needed, and, unlike Daniels, Nussmeier isn't throwing to two first-round NFL draft picks at wide receiver (Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr.). Kelly praised Nussmeier's patience Saturday, noting that he often faced obvious passing situations with seven or eight Ole Miss defenders dropped into coverage. Patience might be Nussmeier's superpower, as he waited at LSU rather than transferring for a chance to start and didn't lose his composure Saturday. Kelly told ESPN before the Ole Miss game that Nussmeier had improved his decisiveness each week.

"You've got to have a short memory at quarterback," Nussmeier said.

Review: The growth Kelly saw from Nussmeier in the Ole Miss comeback will be put to the test soon. If Nussmeier continues to develop, LSU can start thinking about a CFP berth.


North Carolina Tar Heels

Replacing: Drake Maye, 2022 ACC Player of the Year, two-year starter, selected No. 3 overall by the New England Patriots

Replacement (currently): Jacolby Criswell, senior, Arkansas transfer

Competition/other options: Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson began the season as the starter but suffered a broken leg in the opener. UNC then went to Conner Harrell before settling on Criswell, who began his career with the Tar Heels and returned after a season at Arkansas.

How it's going: North Carolina seemingly had a plan with Johnson, the first big-name transfer quarterback to announce his destination in the winter window, and had to pivot following the injury. Harrell had 219 passing yards and two touchdowns in a win against Charlotte but struggled early against FCS North Carolina Central and was benched and eventually replaced by Criswell, who had competed with Maye for the starting job before the 2022 season. Despite four seasons as a reserve, Criswell has been able to handle the starting job on a team where the biggest problems remain on defense.

He has become a volume passer, recording 40.75 attempts per start. The problem is accuracy, as Criswell has not eclipsed 58.3% completions in any start. He has only one interception in his past three starts, and had his best overall performance against Georgia Tech, passing for 209 yards and a touchdown, while adding 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. North Carolina has one of the nation's best running backs in Omarion Hampton and ideally can have a bit better run-pass balance with Criswell's mobility. The Heels achieved it against Duke -- 40 runs, 39 passes -- but typically have been behind because of their defense, requiring Criswell to air it out.

Review: North Carolina has much bigger problems than quarterback, and Criswell, while limited from an accuracy standpoint, should give the Heels a chance for some second-half wins.


Washington Huskies

Replacing: Michael Penix Jr., 2023 Maxwell Award winner and Heisman Trophy runner-up, two-year starter, selected No. 8 by the Atlanta Falcons

Replacement: Will Rogers, senior, Mississippi State transfer

Competition/other options: Rogers picked Washington when Kalen DeBoer was coach and briefly reentered the portal before recommitting to Jedd Fisch. Although Fisch brought Demond Williams Jr. with him from Arizona, Rogers, a record-setting passer in the SEC, always had the edge for the top job.

How it's going: Rogers had his worst performance as a Husky in Saturday's 40-16 loss to Iowa, a defense that gives many talented quarterbacks fits. He had season lows for passing yards (195) and completion percentage (64.7%, good for some but not the super accurate Rogers), and had a sack-fumble and an interception early in the third quarter when Washington drove near Iowa's red zone down 20-10. Coach Jedd Fisch said Rogers tried to force the pass when he didn't need to, and Iowa increased its lead and never looked back. Rogers has only one other interception this season along with 13 passing touchdowns and 1,820 yards, while completing 72.2% of his attempts. Overall, he's maybe not quite the QB who set 29 Mississippi State records as well as the SEC's single-season and career completions records. But he also has improved from 2023, when his accuracy and production plummeted in a different offense.

Washington's biggest concern isn't at quarterback but why an offense with talented players -- Rogers, wide receivers Giles Jackson and Denzel Boston, running back Jonah Coleman -- isn't scoring more. The Huskies rank 99th nationally in points per game (24.1 PPG) and 27th in yards per game (452.7 YPG), an incongruence that doesn't fall solely on Rogers. Washington is a team in transition, especially along the offensive line, and is tied for 12th nationally in most penalties. The Huskies are tied for 21st in total red zone drives (28) but have converted only half into touchdowns, which ties for 116th nationally.

Fisch recently detailed where all the new starters on offense came from, telling me, "It's so much fun, because these guys are just getting to know each other, just embracing this."

Review: The Iowa game seems like an anomaly for Rogers, whose vast experience on a transitioning team brings more pros than cons but ultimately must yield more points.


Michigan Wolverines

Replacing: J.J. McCarthy, 2023 Big Ten Quarterback of the Year, two-year starter, selected No. 10 by the Minnesota Vikings

Replacement (currently): Jack Tuttle, senior

Competition/other options: Tuttle will be the third Michigan quarterback to start, after he replaced the struggling Alex Orji on Oct. 5 at Washington. Michigan opened the season with Davis Warren, a surprise starter to many on the outside, before switching to Orji heading into Week 4.

How it's going: The fact that Michigan will start its third different quarterback in its seventh game is revealing about how the team addressed the most important position. When the 2023 season kicked off, McCarthy's NFL departure wasn't guaranteed, but it became increasingly more likely as he led Michigan toward another Big Ten title and CFP appearance. Michigan had a late coaching change as Jim Harbaugh moved on but quickly named Sherrone Moore as his replacement. The team could have added a quarterback transfer in the spring, if only for depth, but plodded ahead with its holdovers, including Tuttle, who in February was granted a seventh year of eligibility.

"I'm more than confident that we have multiple guys that can get it done," offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell told ESPN in June. "It's just: Who's the best one?"

Moore added in June that the coaches saw "a lot of good players that are built right and molded right and are seeing the process of how it's done."

Orji seemed to be the favorite entering training camp, but Warren's dominant play earned him the job. He couldn't translate error-free performances from practice to the game field, though, and was benched after three interceptions against Arkansas State. Orji then confirmed the long-held fears about his passing proficiency, failing to reach 100 yards against USC and Minnesota and misfiring on four of his first seven attempts at Washington. Tuttle, who started five games at Indiana before transferring to Michigan in 2023, might provide the passing stability the Wolverines sorely need, especially with a new-look receiving corps. Michigan was a run-based offense with McCarthy but relied on him to make tight throws in big moments. So far, the Wolverines haven't been able to lean on their quarterbacks for much of anything.

"It's going to be a little bit by committee," a Big Ten coach said. "I don't know exactly the rep or the pitch count for who goes out there."

Review: Michigan seemingly overrated the talent in its quarterback room, and its unwillingness to add a player from the portal, even in the spring, might have limited what the team can achieve this fall.


Oregon Ducks

Replacing: Bo Nix, 2023 Heisman Trophy finalist, two-year starter, selected No. 12 by the Denver Broncos

Replacement: Dillon Gabriel, senior, Oklahoma transfer

Competition/other options: Oregon also added UCLA transfer Dante Moore, who opened the 2023 season as the Bruins' starter and initially committed to the Ducks as a five-star recruit. But Moore arrived with the understanding that Gabriel would be the starter in 2024.

How it's going: Gabriel looked solid in his first few games with the Ducks, displaying pinpoint accuracy and no interceptions until Week 4. He delivered a few field-stretching passes, but there was a sense he could have a more complete performance. Thankfully for Oregon, it came at the perfect time -- against Ohio State -- when Gabriel had 341 passing yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, plus 32 rushing yards and his fourth rushing touchdown in five games. He sparked his connection with Evan Stewart, the highly touted Texas A&M transfer who had been quiet since a 112-yard receiving performance against Boise State. Stewart torched Ohio State -- and specifically standout cornerback Denzel Burke -- for 149 yards and a touchdown on seven catches.

"The big bomb to Stew last week, those are things that Dillon finds ways to get the extra time to work on," Ducks coach Dan Lanning told me, referring to Gabriel's 69-yard pass to Stewart that set up Oregon's first touchdown. "He's also mature enough to say, 'Coach [Will] Stein, can we practice throwing this route, so we can get it right?'"

Lanning cited Gabriel's "ability to connect with people" as his greatest strength. Like Nix, Gabriel has played college football for a very long time, led offenses in big games and been around different groups of teammates. Gabriel inherited a strong group of playmakers, including Stewart, wideout Tez Johnson, tight end Terrance Ferguson and running back Jordan James. But he also had to work through some challenges, including an interior offensive line that struggled early on.

"He's mature beyond his time," Lanning said of Gabriel, who will turn 24 in December. "The experience is obviously a huge advantage for him in today's game, because it's hard to get ahead at quarterback without experience. He's a likable guy who his teammates enjoy being around."

Review: Gabriel's performance against Ohio State showed he can lead Oregon back to the CFP and possibly all the way to a championship.


South Carolina Gamecocks

Replacing: Spencer Rattler, two-year starter and 2023 co-team MVP, selected No. 150 by the New Orleans Saints

Replacement: LaNorris Sellers, redshirt freshman, appeared in three games last season

Competition/other options: Sellers competed during the offseason with Auburn transfer Robby Ashford, who started his career at Oregon. South Carolina named Sellers as its offensive player of the spring and was named the team's starter on Aug. 20.

How it's going: Rattler revived his career at South Carolina, producing two very similar statistical seasons as Gamecocks quarterback and taking almost all of the snaps during his time in Columbia. Sellers has gone through the expected bumps as a young player getting his first significant playing time, but the talent is there for the dual-threat QB. His performance last week at Alabama suggests good things are ahead, as he recorded season highs in passing yards (238) and completion percentage (74.2) while tossing multiple touchdown passes for the second time. After South Carolina fell behind 14-0, Sellers rallied the team for scores on three of four drives to take a third-quarter lead. He also had two lost fumbles and an interception that loomed large in a 27-25 loss, but he led a 75-yard touchdown drive in the closing minutes to set up a potential game-tying 2-point conversion attempt.

The 6-foot-3, 242-pound Sellers missed a game and a half following an ankle sprain against LSU, a game where he sparked South Carolina to a 24-10 lead with a 75-yard touchdown run. His mission for the second half will be steadier play, as he has an interception in each of his past four starts and has been sacked at least four times in the four complete games he has played. Sellers is still building chemistry with a group of top wide receivers that mostly wasn't around during spring practice.

"Two of our probably five receivers right now didn't even get here until after spring practice," coach Shane Beamer told me, referring to transfers Gage Larvadain (Miami of Ohio) and Vandrevius Jacobs (Florida State). "And Nyck Harbor wasn't here for spring practice because of track. So three of your top five didn't go through spring ball with LaNorris. I see those guys offensively, particularly in the passing game, getting better and better each week."

Review: Sellers is going through the natural progression of a gifted but inexperienced quarterback. If he can start trimming the turnovers, more wins should come for the Gamecocks.


Florida State Seminoles

Replacing: Jordan Travis, 2023 ACC Player of the Year, started portions of past four seasons, selected No. 171 overall by the New York Jets

Replacement (currently): Brock Glenn, redshirt freshman, played in five games and started the ACC championship and the Orange Bowl after Travis' broken leg

Competition/other options: Florida State added DJ Uiagalelei, the Oregon State transfer and former Clemson starter, to be its clear QB1 during the offseason. Uiagalelei started the first five games before breaking a finger on his throwing hand Sept. 28 at SMU. He underwent surgery and might not return this season.

How it's going: Not very well, and that's an understatement. Other than the ACC championship game win behind an excellent defense, Florida State has had almost nothing go right since Travis' injury Nov. 18 against North Alabama. Travis appeared in 46 games for FSU and left as the school's record holder for total offense, quarterback rushing yards, touchdowns responsible and quarterback rushing touchdowns. He's the only Seminoles player to record four seasons of seven or more rushing touchdowns and reach at least 50 career passing touchdowns and 12 rushing touchdowns.

FSU hoped that Uiagalelei, who had some good moments last year for Oregon State while still completing only 57.1% of his passes, could maintain the offense's production. But Uiagalelei's accuracy and processing issues, which first surfaced at Clemson in 2021, showed in home losses to Boston College and Memphis. The senior completed just 12 of 30 attempts with two touchdowns and three interceptions against SMU before the injury. To be clear, Florida State's teamwide problems go far beyond Uiagalelei, who was operating with a poor line and a pass-catching group that really misses NFL draft picks Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and Jaheim Bell. But Uiagalelei's continued struggles, after never truly breaking through at Clemson or Oregon State, reinforce the skepticism over why coach Mike Norvell wanted him.

"There's nobody in the ACC who thought he was any good," a Power 4 coach said, adding that Jonathan Smith, who coached Uiagalelei at Oregon State, didn't take Uiagalelei to Michigan State. "I don't know what Norvell is thinking."

Review: Uiagalelei was a somewhat predictable miss, one of several striking portal whiffs for FSU, which has several glaring problems but must make quarterback a strength again.


Tennessee Volunteers

Replacing: Joe Milton, 2022 Orange Bowl MVP, started in 2023 and early in 2021, selected No. 193 overall by the New England Patriots

Replacement: Nico Iamaleava, redshirt freshman, appeared in five games with one start last fall

Competition/other options: Iamaleava, who landed a massive NIL deal with Tennessee, always was in line to be the team's starter this fall. He showcased his talents in a Citrus Bowl blowout of Iowa, accounting for 178 yards of offense and four touchdowns. Veteran Gaston Moore, who served as Tennessee's third-string quarterback in 2022 and 2023, moved into the backup role this fall.

How it's going: Not as well as it appeared early in the season, when Iamaleava and the Tennessee offense stormed to 191 points in the first three games. Iamaleava completed nearly 70% of his passes in a blowout win against NC State, recording two passing touchdowns and 65 rushing yards and a score. But his production and efficiency has since dropped off, as he hasn't reached 200 passing yards or 63% completions in each of his past four games. He completed only 17 of 29 passes for 158 yards and a touchdown in an Oct. 5 loss at Arkansas, and had just 169 pass yards with an interception in a narrow home win last Saturday against Florida. Iamaleava is showing his age a bit, but Tennessee also can approach games differently because of its strength on defense, which showed in a 25-15 win at Oklahoma where the Vols allowed only three points through the first 51:35.

"You notice Tennessee put the brakes on in the second half offensively," an SEC defensive coordinator said. "[Coach Josh] Heupel realized, 'I'm not going to put Nico in situations; the only way we lose is if we fumble or throw picks.' If they have to get explosive, they can. But there were three drives where he went three runs and punt. He realized in this environment, 'Don't put them in that situation. Let's just play to our strength here, and it was on defense.'"

Tennessee's defense gives Heupel some flexibility in how much he leans on Iamaleava. But explosive offense and quarterback play is still the team's identity, and the Vols will need to score more beginning this week against No. 7 Alabama, which ranks 10th nationally in scoring. Heupel noted after the Florida game that Iamaleava missed on several deep passes, but he has to keep trying them.

Review: Iamaleava's inexperience has surfaced in SEC play, but he has too much talent -- and so does Tennessee's offense -- not to see a production uptick in the second half.


Kentucky Wildcats

Replacing: Devin Leary, 2023 starter, selected No. 218 overall by the Baltimore Ravens

Replacement: Brock Vandagriff, junior, transfer from Georgia

Competition/other options: Vandagriff, an ESPN top-40 recruit in 2021, left Georgia for a chance to start and never received significant pushback. Kentucky added transfer Gavin Wimsatt, the former Rutgers starter who lost the competition to start there and entered the portal. Wimsatt has been used in the Wildcat formation and as a change-up runner.

How it's going: Vandagriff is the latest in a series of notable quarterback transfers for Kentucky, which added Leary (NC State) and Levis (Penn State) before him. Leary had 25 touchdown passes last fall but completed only 56.3% of his attempts for an offense that finished 83rd nationally in passing and 56th in scoring. Kentucky hired a new offensive coordinator in Bush Hamdan but returned good experience along the line and at wide receiver with Dane Key and Barion Brown. After throwing three touchdown passes in his Kentucky debut against Southern Miss, Vandagriff went through a tough stretch that included a benching against South Carolina in a woeful outing for him (3-of-10 passing, 30 yards, interception returned for a touchdown) and the team (six points, 183 yards). He also completed only 14 passes for 114 yards in a 13-12 loss to then-No. 1 Georgia.

His performances have since improved, as he has 638 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in his past three games, and made one of the defining throws of the season, a 63-yarder to Brown that set up the game-winning touchdown at Ole Miss. Vandagriff has faced constant pressure, as Kentucky is tied for 104th in sacks allowed and 129th in pressure rate, and has been banged up at times while not missing any games. Kentucky is tied for 97th in red zone drives with 18 and, more troublingly, has converted just 11 into touchdowns. The coaches like Vandagriff's approach, which head coach Mark Stoops described as "very steady," and the hope is better protection will lead to more impact plays.

Review: Kentucky can't get a full read on Vandagriff until it protects him better and gets him to full strength, which will allow his running ability, displayed in the Vanderbilt game, to fully come out. He ultimately needs to generate more big plays with talented wideouts and finish drives.


Tulane Green Wave

Replacing: Michael Pratt, 2023 AAC Offensive Player of the Year, four-year starter, selected No. 245 by the Green Bay Packers

Replacement: Darian Mensah, redshirt freshman

Competition/other options: Tulane brought in Oregon transfer Ty Thompson, an ESPN top-70 recruit in 2021 who competed with Mensah during the offseason. Although Mensah won the job, Thompson has been used in spurts, throwing two touchdown passes and ranking second on the team with four rushing touchdowns.

How it's going: Mensah is off to an impressive start under first-year coach Jon Sumrall, recording 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions. His season completion percentage of 66.1% is weighed down by a 14-of-32 performance against Oklahoma, as he has reached 80% completions in three of six games. Mensah had 342 passing yards and two touchdowns against Kansas State and has been very good in AAC play, recording four touchdown passes and no interceptions on 30-of-37 passing. Tulane is a run-oriented offense based around physicality, but Mensah has provided nice balance to the unit while avoiding major mistakes typical to young quarterbacks. The Green Wave have only five giveaways, none in the past three games.

"He's operating at a really high level," Sumrall said Tuesday. "Most of the year, he's been doing that. He's had some moments where he's got to grow and learn, but he's played the position at a high level. ... He's been really efficient in the throw game, for the most part, has protected the football, hasn't put it in jeopardy a ton."

The 6-foot-3, 200-pound Mensah ranks seventh nationally in yards per pass attempt (9.89) and 21st in total QBR. Of his 84 completions, nearly one-fourth (19) have gone for 20 yards or longer. He seemingly benefited from facing two Power 4 opponents early on and has Tulane positioned for a run in the AAC with a second-half schedule that includes North Texas, Navy and Memphis.

Review: The transition from Pratt to Mensah couldn't be going much better, as Tulane has its quarterback of the future. Mensah's next step will be getting his passing production a bit more consistent from game to game.