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2024 College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 3

Georgia struggled to shake Kentucky, costing the Bulldogs a first-round bye in our latest playoff projections. Carter Skaggs/Imagn Images

Week 3 didn't bring any big upsets, as the only ranked teams to lose (No. 20 Arizona and No. 24 Boston College) fell to teams ranked higher than them (No. 14 Kansas State and No. 6 Missouri, respectively).

But all wins are not created equal, as we saw when No. 1 Georgia narrowly avoided defeat with a 1-point win at Kentucky.

How did it all impact our playoff and bowl projections?

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of Seeds 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowl games, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day on Dec. 8.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 -- ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia

Bonagura: No. 11 Kansas State at No. 6 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 11 Oregon at No. 6 Alabama

Bonagura: No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Tennessee
Schlabach: No. 10 USC at No. 7 Tennessee

Bonagura: No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 USC
Schlabach: No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Penn State

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: These projections can be a bit misleading because with so few conference games in the books, there isn't an effective way to really gauge how a lot of these teams match up. Consider this more of a snapshot in time, with the understanding that in a few weeks there will be a lot of movement. The obvious change here is that Georgia fell from the No. 1 line after it squeaked by Kentucky, passed by the well-oiled machine that is Texas. The Big 12 has two teams in again -- Utah and Kansas State -- which feels like where things will eventually settle, with the question being, which two?

Schlabach: Texas is now my No. 1 seed and SEC champion after Georgia's closer-than-expected SEC road opener at Kentucky. The Bulldogs are still one of the best four teams in the country, but they'll be the No. 5 seed if they don't win the SEC title. To be honest, hosting AAC champion Memphis in the first round, then playing No. 4 Kansas State in the quarterfinals isn't that difficult of a path to the semifinals. I have five SEC teams and four Big Ten squads in my top 12 for now. They're going to start knocking each other off before too long. I also considered Oklahoma State, Utah, Clemson and Missouri for at-large spots. Boise State, Liberty and Texas State were other considerations for the Group of 5 champion selection.


CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinals at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Utah
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Kansas State

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinals at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Miami

CFP quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinals at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 USC vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 1 Texas

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: If we're being honest, a Texas-USC game should be played at the Rose Bowl, not in New Orleans, given the history. Either way, that would be by far the most compelling matchup this round. With the first-round games on campuses, the quarterfinals might end up being the most sterile round because there figures to be some mismatches that won't be as compelling at neutral sites that far removed for the national championship game.

Schlabach: I had the four home teams -- No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Alabama, No. 7 Tennessee and No. 8 Penn State -- advancing out of the quarterfinals. Chances are at least one of them would be upset, even playing at home. Georgia would have to make a long trip to play Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl. Tennessee's trip would be even longer to play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Miami-Alabama and Penn State-Texas would rekindle some fun times from the 1980s and '90s.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinals at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP semifinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Georgia

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Again, I'm calling for reseeding in the College Football Playoff. The way things look right now, to get to the championship game, the No. 2 seed (in this case, Ohio State) probably has an easier road than the No. 1 seed (Texas) and the No. 6 seed (Alabama) has an easier road than the No. 5 (Georgia). It's a flawed format that is easily correctable.

Schlabach: I'm going to give Georgia a mulligan for its ugly 13-12 victory at Kentucky. The Bulldogs seem to struggle in their SEC opener each season before turning things around. They'll have to with road trips to Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss remaining on the schedule. I was much more impressed with the Crimson Tide in their 42-10 victory at Wisconsin on Saturday. Ohio State and Georgia have been my top two teams throughout the preseason and first three weeks, and I'm not ready to change my mind yet.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. NC Central

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Colorado State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Navy
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. East Carolina

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: California vs. Boise State

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Liberty vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Appalachian State

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: James Madison vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. UTSA

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Boston College vs. James Madison

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Dec. 26

Detroit Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Michigan State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. BYU
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Texas Tech

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Ohio vs. Marshall
Schlabach: San José State vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Baylor

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Army
Schlabach: SMU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: TCU vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: UCF vs. South Carolina

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: Clemson vs. California
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Oregon State

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: South Florida vs. Syracuse
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Pittsburgh

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Illinois

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Air Force vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Louisville vs. UCF
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oklahoma State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Buffalo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. UNLV

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. South Florida

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Washington State vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Utah

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Indiana

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. LSU
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Kentucky

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Oklahoma

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Washington

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Missouri

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. LSU

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ESPN

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas A&M

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. UNLV
Schlabach: BYU vs. Duke

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Boston College vs. Indiana
Schlabach: NC State vs. Rutgers

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Miami (Ohio)