Texas is back -- no, really! -- and just in time for the SEC to take credit for it.
The Longhorns went into Michigan Stadium on Saturday and beat the defending national champs soundly, prompting an early exit for most of the Wolverines' student section and resulting in another critical nonconference road win that will impress the College Football Playoff selection committee.
Last year, Texas represented the Big 12 in the playoff. This year, the Longhorns have given the SEC yet another national title contender.
"I reminded the guys, we've gone into Tuscaloosa and played and won," coach Steve Sarkisian said. "We've played in a Big 12 championship game. We've played in the College Football Playoff. So none of the moments should feel too big for us anymore."
With the 31-12 win over Michigan, the Longhorns now have the best chance to win the national tile (20%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, and five of the six teams with at least a 60% chance to reach the playoff are from the SEC.
Five SEC teams are featured in this week's Bubble Watch, which includes the predicted 12-team bracket, who gets first-round byes, the first four out, the next four in line and how the Group of 5 conference champions will stack up.
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Byes | First-round matchups
First four out | Next four out
Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee
No. 1 seed Georgia Bulldogs: The Bulldogs would earn the top seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is based on Georgia also being the selection committee's No. 1 team overall on Selection Day. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Georgia has the third-best chance to make the playoff (83.7%) behind Texas (90.2%) and Ohio State (83.2%). The Bulldogs will play their first SEC game Saturday at Kentucky.
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would earn the No. 2 seed as the projected Big Ten champs and the second highest-ranked conference winner behind Georgia. According to ESPN Analytics, Ohio State has the best chance to win the Big Ten (71.1%), well ahead of Penn State (32.5%). The Buckeyes also have the best chance (22.7%) of any team in the country to finish the season undefeated.
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn this seed as the ACC champion. Clemson (and Louisville!) are still very much in the mix, but further separation happened in the ACC on Saturday with both Georgia Tech and NC State losing. ESPN Analytics gives Miami better than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games except for Oct. 19 at Louisville, where the Cardinals have a 56.7% chance to win. Miami and Clemson don't play during the regular season.
No. 4 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Big 12 remains wildly unpredictable, but Oklahoma State is the league's predicted champion here after beating Arkansas. The true value of that win in the committee meeting room depends on how Arkansas fares the rest of this season. K-State struggled to win at Tulane, Kansas lost to Illinois, and Utah hosted an unranked Baylor team, the most underwhelming competition of the bunch. Oklahoma State ends September with back-to-back games against Utah and K-State. Those results will reveal if the Cowboys are a true contender.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Winner plays: No. 4 Oklahoma State
Explaining the seeding: Projected Mid-American Conference champion Northern Illinois has replaced Boise State this week as the best of the Group of 5. NIU would finish the season ranked outside of the committee's top 12, but still earn the No. 12 seed -- at the expense of the committee's No. 11 team, Missouri. This would happen because Oklahoma State, which in this scenario is ranked No. 12 by the committee, would be promoted to the No. 4 seed. After the four highest-ranked conference champions are slotted into the top-four seeds, the committee then moves down its ranking and seeds the next seven highest-ranked teams. That would not include No. 11 Mizzou. The committee would then include the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which in this case would be NIU. Because Texas didn't win the SEC in this projection, the highest the Longhorns could be seeded is No. 5.
No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 8 Oregon Ducks
Winner plays: No. 1 Georgia
Explaining the seeding: Now that all five of the conference champions have been accounted for, this is where the bracket is composed entirely of at-large bids. This matchup features two Big Ten teams that didn't play each other during the regular season and also didn't win their league. Both Penn State and Oregon struggled offensively in their respective Week 2 wins, but unlike Notre Dame avoided an upset. The committee will evaluate at-large contenders in its ranking the same way it always has -- using head-to-head results, strength of schedule and common opponents as its tiebreakers. Consider the importance of seeding in this matchup -- the winner has to play the No. 1 seed and the best team in the country.
No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
Explaining the seeding: This matchup would feature the committee's third-best SEC team (Ole Miss) against its fifth and final SEC team in the ranking. With Notre Dame falling out of the bracket this week, the Vols were promoted after their win against NC State. Tennessee and Ole Miss don't play each other during the regular season. The Vols do play at Georgia, though, on Nov. 16. In this scenario, if Tennessee were to win three straight playoff games, it could see the Bulldogs again in the national championship game. The committee doesn't consider the possibility of rematches when voting for its Top 25.
No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 7 USC Trojans
Winner plays: No. 2 Ohio State
Explaining the seeding: Alabama would be the committee's fourth-highest ranked SEC team, and USC would be the group's second Big Ten team behind conference champion Ohio State. USC's win against LSU still carries weight as one of the better nonconference wins, even though the Tigers looked average against Nicholls on Saturday. This is another scenario that opens the possibility of a rematch if USC and Ohio State play each other in the Big Ten conference championship game and USC loses.
First four out
Missouri Tigers: The Tigers are here because they got bumped out of the selection committee's top 12 to make room for Northern Illinois as the fifth highest-ranked conference champion. After pummeling Murray State and Buffalo, the Tigers can strengthen their résumé on Saturday with a home win against a Boston College team that beat Florida State.
Kansas State Wildcats: The Wildcats have a quick turn this week with a Friday home game against No. 20 Arizona. It's a tall task following an emotional 34-27 win at Tulane on Saturday, and it's not going to get any easier with a trip to BYU looming. K-State is entering a key stretch for its playoff hopes.
Utah Utes: Following Utah's win against Baylor, coach Kyle Whittingham said the injury to quarterback Cam Rising's throwing hand was "not real serious," but let's be real. Rising, a seventh-year senior who missed all of last year with a knee injury, is the key to the Utes' playoff hopes. If he has a papercut, it needs to be considered seriously.
Clemson Tigers: The Tigers took a lot of heat after the loss to Georgia, and they took it out on App State 66-20. While Clemson isn't on par with the SEC's top team, it's certainly good enough to win a watered-down ACC. In fact, ESPN Analytics likes Clemson to win the league over both Louisville and Miami at 27.5%.
Next four out
Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners sank to this category after they punted eight times and were outgained by Houston in total yards (318-249). "We did enough things wrong to deserve to lose," OU coach Brent Venables said after the game. OU better be ready to host Tulane -- a more talented team than Houston.
LSU Tigers: It took the Tigers three quarters to assert themselves against FCS-level Nicholls, but they did it, thanks to six touchdowns from quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. If the Tigers are going to move up as a contender, they're going to have to get better up front offensively and find a way to run the ball.
Michigan Wolverines: Oof. You can't count the Wolverines out, but the loss to Texas exposed some glaring weaknesses. Michigan should be able to work on some fixable mistakes (like turnovers) on Saturday against Arkansas State, but ESPN Analytics now projects losses against USC, Washington and Ohio State.
Boise State Broncos: That's right, there are two Group of 5 teams in the conversation here because the Broncos went on the road and gave the Ducks fits. The selection committee wouldn't penalize them for that. While NIU stole the headlines (and deservedly so), ESPN Analytics still gives Boise State the better chance to reach the CFP with a 26.9% chance compared to NIU at 15.7%.
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Northern Illinois Huskies (Mid-American): With Saturday's stunning upset of Notre Dame, NIU suddenly has the best win of the Group of 5 contenders -- and one of the best wins in the country. If the Huskies can do it a second time and beat NC State on the road later this month, their résumé will be tough to beat.
2. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West): The Broncos still have opportunities to build their playoff résumé against both Oregon State and Washington State. Of the contenders ranked here, Boise State has the toughest schedule (No. 11 among Group of 5 teams) and No. 14 in the country.
3. Tulane Green Wave (American Athletic): This Green Wave team doesn't quit, nearly pulling the home upset against K-State on Saturday. They'll get another chance to impress the committee this week against a ranked SEC team in Oklahoma, which just struggled to beat Houston.
4. Memphis Tigers (American Athletic): After an easy 2-0 start, Memphis has a chance to earn a Power 4 road win against a beleaguered Florida State team. This will eventually settle itself on the field, as Memphis also faces Tulane to end its regular season.
5. UNLV Rebels (Mountain West): The Rebels and Oklahoma now have a common opponent, and UNLV's 27-7 result was more impressive than the Sooners' narrow 16-12 escape against Houston. UNLV has plenty of opportunities to impress the selection committee against Power 4 opponents, starting Friday at Kansas, but the Rebels also face Syracuse and Oregon State before hosting Boise State on a Friday night in October.