College football's Week 2 SP+ rankings takeaways

Bill ConnellySep 8, 2024, 09:45 AM ET
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Well that was interesting. Week 2 of the 2024 college football season didn't give us many earth-shattering results beyond Notre Dame's upset loss to Northern Illinois, but it felt like about half the teams in the top 25 flirted with disaster. Few teams have looked genuinely awesome twice, and we head into Week 3 not knowing what to think about countless teams. Honestly, that's a pretty fun place to be.

SP+ is in the same boat. It trusts about five teams right now, and the distance between No. 1 Georgia and No. 10 Miami is about the same as the distance between Miami and No. 41 West Virginia. There's a huge batch of teams it's still trying to figure out.

Below are this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

Post-Week 2 SP+ Rankings

Team	Rating	Offense	Defense	Spec Tms
1. Georgia (2-0)	32.8	44.2 (3)	11.6 (5)	0.2 (13)
2. Ohio St. (2-0)	30.9	37.1 (13)	6.4 (2)	0.2 (3)
3. Alabama (2-0)	30.4	43.8 (5)	13.5 (7)	0.1 (54)
4. Texas (2-0)	29.4	44.3 (2)	14.7 (10)	-0.2 (114)
5. Ole Miss (2-0)	28.7	44.9 (1)	16.2 (11)	0.0 (61)
6. Tennessee (2-0)	24.2	40.4 (9)	16.3 (13)	0.1 (34)
7. Missouri (2-0)	24.1	40.4 (8)	16.5 (15)	0.1 (25)
8. Penn St. (2-0)	22.0	35.0 (19)	13.1 (6)	0.1 (50)
9. Oregon (2-0)	21.3	42.2 (7)	20.9 (32)	0.0 (81)
10. Miami (2-0)	19.8	39.9 (11)	20.0 (27)	-0.1 (82)
11. Utah (2-0)	18.3	32.7 (34)	14.2 (9)	-0.2 (116)
12. USC (2-0)	17.2	43.9 (4)	26.8 (67)	0.1 (41)
13. Michigan (1-1)	16.9	27.7 (67)	10.9 (3)	0.2 (24)
14. Louisville (2-0)	16.9	34.5 (22)	17.6 (17)	-0.1 (103)
15. Notre Dame (1-1)	16.7	32.9 (33)	16.3 (12)	0.1 (44)
16. Kansas St. (2-0)	16.2	36.6 (14)	20.5 (30)	0.1 (32)
17. LSU (1-1)	15.7	42.4 (6)	26.7 (66)	0.0 (74)
18. Clemson (1-1)	15.6	34.9 (20)	19.3 (24)	0.0 (59)
19. Oklahoma (2-0)	15.6	32.7 (36)	17.2 (16)	0.1 (52)
20. Texas A&M (1-1)	14.9	34.4 (25)	19.7 (25)	0.2 (4)
21. Oklahoma St. (2-0)	13.7	38.6 (12)	24.9 (51)	0.1 (40)
22. Iowa (1-1)	13.6	19.4 (110)	6.0 (1)	0.1 (33)
23. Auburn (1-1)	13.3	32.2 (38)	19.1 (22)	0.1 (46)
24. Washington (2-0)	13.1	35.0 (18)	22.0 (36)	0.1 (29)
25. UCF (2-0)	12.3	34.5 (23)	22.4 (37)	0.2 (8)
26. TCU (2-0)	10.7	34.1 (28)	23.4 (41)	0.0 (69)
27. Memphis (2-0)	10.6	40.0 (10)	29.5 (82)	0.1 (39)
28. Nebraska (2-0)	10.3	21.7 (96)	11.1 (4)	-0.2 (126)
29. Wisconsin (2-0)	10.3	24.0 (90)	13.8 (8)	0.1 (35)
30. Iowa St. (2-0)	10.0	27.8 (66)	17.7 (18)	0.0 (71)
31. Florida (1-1)	9.9	35.2 (16)	25.5 (55)	0.2 (1)
32. S. Carolina (2-0)	9.6	28.1 (62)	18.6 (20)	0.0 (64)
33. Arizona (2-0)	9.4	36.3 (15)	27.1 (70)	0.2 (20)
34. Florida St. (0-2)	9.3	30.0 (45)	20.8 (31)	0.2 (12)
35. Arkansas (1-1)	9.2	34.3 (26)	25.1 (52)	0.0 (72)
36. Kansas (1-1)	9.2	35.2 (17)	26.1 (63)	0.2 (15)
37. SMU (2-1)	8.5	31.6 (40)	23.1 (39)	0.0 (60)
38. Rutgers (2-0)	8.0	26.2 (80)	18.4 (19)	0.2 (5)
39. Minnesota (1-1)	8.0	24.5 (87)	16.3 (14)	-0.1 (98)
40. Kentucky (1-1)	7.8	29.5 (50)	21.9 (34)	0.2 (16)
41. W. Virginia (1-1)	7.5	34.2 (27)	26.9 (68)	0.1 (27)
42. Maryland (1-1)	6.3	26.3 (77)	20.0 (26)	-0.1 (86)
43. Wash. St. (2-0)	6.0	34.5 (24)	28.3 (74)	-0.2 (118)
44. Boise St. (1-1)	6.0	34.9 (21)	28.8 (79)	-0.1 (90)
45. Va. Tech (1-1)	5.7	29.6 (49)	24.0 (44)	0.1 (51)
46. N. Carolina (2-0)	5.6	31.4 (41)	25.9 (60)	0.2 (9)
47. Oregon St. (2-0)	5.4	29.9 (48)	24.3 (46)	-0.2 (127)
48. California (2-0)	5.4	31.6 (39)	26.1 (64)	-0.1 (108)
49. Illinois (2-0)	4.9	25.1 (84)	20.3 (29)	0.1 (45)
50. Duke (2-0)	4.6	24.6 (85)	20.1 (28)	0.0 (62)
51. Miss. St. (1-1)	4.5	29.2 (53)	24.7 (49)	0.0 (76)
52. Baylor (1-1)	4.5	28.9 (55)	24.5 (48)	0.1 (31)
53. UCLA (1-0)	4.4	26.3 (78)	21.8 (33)	-0.1 (85)
54. Indiana (2-0)	4.4	27.0 (70)	22.7 (38)	0.2 (18)
55. Boston Coll. (2-0)	4.1	28.6 (57)	24.3 (47)	-0.1 (104)
56. NC St. (1-1)	3.7	27.3 (68)	23.6 (43)	0.0 (56)
57. Louisiana (2-0)	3.1	33.8 (30)	30.8 (88)	0.2 (21)
58. Purdue (1-0)	3.0	28.2 (61)	25.3 (54)	0.0 (63)
59. BYU (2-0)	2.9	29.4 (51)	26.4 (65)	-0.1 (87)
60. Tulane (1-1)	2.8	28.6 (59)	25.9 (58)	0.2 (23)
61. UNLV (2-0)	2.6	34.1 (29)	31.6 (96)	0.1 (26)
62. Arizona St. (2-0)	2.0	28.1 (63)	26.0 (61)	-0.1 (102)
63. Pittsburgh (2-0)	1.9	27.0 (71)	25.2 (53)	0.2 (6)
64. Liberty (2-0)	1.7	33.2 (32)	31.3 (91)	-0.1 (105)
65. JMU (2-0)	1.2	26.8 (73)	25.6 (56)	0.1 (53)
66. Ga. Tech (2-1)	1.2	32.7 (35)	31.3 (92)	-0.1 (112)
67. Syracuse (2-0)	0.5	28.6 (58)	28.0 (71)	-0.1 (93)
68. Cincinnati (1-1)	-0.1	28.9 (54)	28.8 (80)	-0.1 (111)
69. Virginia (2-0)	-0.1	28.5 (60)	28.6 (78)	0.0 (66)
70. Coastal Caro. (2-0)	-0.1	28.8 (56)	29.1 (81)	0.1 (36)
71. Wake Forest (1-1)	-0.4	26.7 (74)	27.1 (69)	0.0 (70)
72. Vanderbilt (2-0)	-0.5	30.0 (46)	30.6 (85)	0.2 (11)
73. Texas St. (2-0)	-0.9	32.3 (37)	33.1 (106)	-0.1 (100)
74. Texas Tech (1-1)	-0.9	30.1 (43)	31.1 (90)	0.2 (14)
75. Toledo (2-0)	-1.4	22.2 (93)	23.4 (40)	-0.2 (124)
76. Michigan St. (2-0)	-1.7	16.8 (119)	18.7 (21)	0.2 (7)
77. Stanford (1-1)	-2.0	28.0 (65)	30.0 (83)	0.0 (58)
78. Fresno St. (1-1)	-2.3	29.4 (52)	31.5 (94)	-0.2 (131)
79. Colorado (1-1)	-2.6	30.5 (42)	33.1 (107)	0.0 (77)
80. USF (1-1)	-3.1	30.0 (44)	33.2 (108)	0.1 (48)
81. Northwestern (1-1)	-3.5	15.8 (121)	19.2 (23)	0.0 (68)
82. Army (2-0)	-4.1	21.7 (95)	25.9 (59)	0.2 (19)
83. ECU (2-0)	-4.1	19.7 (106)	24.1 (45)	0.2 (2)
84. NIU (2-0)	-4.7	19.0 (113)	23.6 (42)	-0.2 (120)
85. San Jose St. (2-0)	-5.0	23.6 (91)	28.5 (77)	-0.2 (113)
86. App. St. (1-1)	-5.2	29.9 (47)	35.1 (117)	0.0 (67)
87. Navy (2-0)	-5.5	20.6 (101)	26.0 (62)	-0.1 (94)
88. WKU (1-1)	-5.7	26.6 (76)	32.1 (99)	-0.1 (106)
89. UTSA (1-1)	-6.1	25.9 (81)	31.9 (97)	-0.1 (107)
90. N. Texas (2-0)	-6.2	33.6 (31)	39.7 (131)	-0.1 (83)
91. Houston (0-2)	-6.3	25.3 (83)	31.5 (93)	-0.2 (115)
92. Rice (1-1)	-6.5	25.7 (82)	32.2 (101)	0.0 (57)
93. Marshall (1-1)	-6.7	24.1 (89)	30.7 (86)	-0.2 (123)
94. BGSU (1-1)	-7.5	24.5 (86)	32.1 (100)	0.2 (22)
95. Troy (0-2)	-7.8	22.7 (92)	30.4 (84)	-0.1 (110)
96. Miami-OH (0-1)	-8.3	13.8 (127)	22.0 (35)	-0.1 (92)
97. San Diego St. (1-1)	-8.9	19.2 (112)	28.0 (72)	-0.1 (109)
98. Tulsa (1-1)	-9.1	26.7 (75)	35.7 (121)	-0.1 (99)
99. Arkansas St. (2-0)	-9.4	27.0 (69)	36.5 (124)	0.1 (55)
100. Air Force (1-1)	-9.8	15.1 (124)	24.8 (50)	-0.2 (125)
101. Hawaii (1-1)	-10.0	20.6 (99)	30.8 (87)	0.1 (38)
102. UAB (1-1)	-10.3	28.1 (64)	38.5 (129)	0.1 (49)
103. ODU (0-2)	-11.5	20.2 (103)	31.6 (95)	0.0 (79)
104. S. Alabama (0-2)	-11.9	24.2 (88)	35.9 (122)	-0.1 (91)
105. Ohio (1-1)	-12.0	13.6 (129)	25.7 (57)	0.1 (47)
106. Ga. Southern (1-1)	-12.0	26.3 (79)	38.5 (128)	0.2 (10)
107. SHSU (1-1)	-12.5	19.8 (105)	32.1 (98)	-0.2 (122)
108. NMSU (1-1)	-12.5	19.8 (104)	32.4 (102)	0.1 (28)
109. Colorado St. (1-1)	-13.4	21.7 (94)	35.1 (118)	-0.1 (95)
110. La. Tech (1-0)	-13.9	21.3 (97)	35.1 (119)	0.0 (75)
111. Utah St. (1-1)	-13.9	26.8 (72)	40.9 (133)	0.2 (17)
112. Georgia St. (1-1)	-14.2	20.6 (100)	34.7 (113)	-0.1 (84)
113. So. Miss (1-1)	-14.4	19.4 (111)	33.6 (109)	-0.2 (133)
114. FIU (1-1)	-14.4	20.3 (102)	34.8 (116)	0.1 (43)
115. CMU (1-1)	-14.5	19.7 (107)	34.0 (111)	-0.1 (101)
116. EMU (1-1)	-14.5	13.9 (126)	28.4 (76)	0.1 (42)
117. Nevada (1-2)	-15.0	19.4 (109)	34.4 (112)	-0.1 (97)
118. ULM (2-0)	-15.3	17.1 (118)	32.5 (103)	0.1 (30)
119. FAU (0-2)	-15.3	13.2 (130)	28.4 (75)	-0.2 (117)
120. Ball St. (1-0)	-15.3	17.2 (116)	32.5 (104)	0.0 (73)
121. Buffalo (1-1)	-15.5	12.9 (131)	28.2 (73)	-0.2 (129)
122. Wyoming (0-2)	-15.6	15.2 (123)	30.9 (89)	0.1 (37)
123. UConn (1-1)	-16.0	17.2 (117)	33.0 (105)	-0.2 (130)
124. WMU (0-2)	-17.9	17.8 (114)	35.6 (120)	-0.2 (119)
125. JSU (0-2)	-18.6	19.6 (108)	38.0 (127)	-0.2 (121)
126. MTSU (1-1)	-18.8	17.8 (115)	36.6 (125)	-0.1 (89)
127. New Mexico (0-2)	-19.6	20.7 (98)	40.1 (132)	-0.2 (132)
128. UTEP (0-2)	-20.3	14.7 (125)	34.8 (114)	-0.2 (134)
129. Charlotte (0-2)	-21.2	15.4 (122)	36.5 (123)	-0.1 (96)
130. UMass (0-2)	-22.7	16.8 (120)	39.3 (130)	-0.2 (128)
131. KSU (0-2)	-23.4	11.4 (133)	34.8 (115)	0.0 (65)
132. Kent St. (0-2)	-24.9	12.6 (132)	37.4 (126)	-0.1 (88)
133. Akron (0-2)	-26.0	7.7 (134)	33.6 (110)	0.0 (80)
134. Temple (0-2)	-28.4	13.7 (128)	42.1 (134)	0.0 (78)

This week's movers

Let's take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We're looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most (after playing an FBS opponent) this week:

Florida International (up 9.4 adjusted points per game, ranking rose from 130th to 114th)
Texas State (up 8.6 points, from 100th to 73rd)
Clemson (up 5.8 points, from 31st to 18th)
South Carolina (up 5.0 points, from 48th to 32nd)
Louisiana-Monroe (up 4.3 points, from 125th to 118th)
Houston (up 3.6 points, from 102nd to 91st)
Ohio State (up 3.4 points, from third to second)
Navy (up 3.4 points, from 96th to 87th)
Ohio (up 3.4 points, from 117th to 105th)
Oregon State (up 3.2 points, from 60th to 47th)

While many of the top teams wobbled, we saw some serious statements below the surface. FIU christened its freshly renamed home stadium, Pitbull Stadium, with a 52-16 destruction of what was supposed to be an evenly matched Central Michigan. Texas State obliterated UTSA 49-10 in another even-on-paper contest. Clemson responded to last week's embarrassment against Georgia by beating a supposedly decent Appalachian State by 46. A week after barely beating Old Dominion, South Carolina thumped Kentucky 31-6 on the road. And look at you, Louisiana-Monroe! Bryant Vincent's Warhawks put a 32-6 walloping on UAB, Vincent's former employer (and a school that probably should have hired Vincent during its last coaching search).

SP+ rewarded all of these resounding wins with solid bumps. (Texas, meanwhile, didn't get much of a bump for beating up on Michigan. I guess the bar's pretty high when you're already in the top five.)

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

Appalachian State (down 7.8 points, from 56th to 86th)
Oklahoma (down 5.9 points, from 11th to 19th)
Notre Dame (down 5.3 points, from 10th to 15th)
Kentucky (down 5.3 points, from 22nd to 40th)
Utah State (down 5.3 points, from 93rd to 111th)
Central Michigan (down 5.2 points, from 98th to 115th)
Western Michigan (down 5.2 points, from 112th to 124th)
NC State (down 4.7 points, from 37th to 56th)
UAB (down 4.6 points, from 87th to 102nd)
UTSA (down 4.5 points, from 74th to 89th)

A lot of this list corresponds with the Moving Up list above, but SP+ lost quite a bit of faith in what were supposed to be two top-15 teams, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. Oklahoma barely beat Houston and was somewhat lucky to do so -- the Sooners gained a paltry 252 yards against the Cougars and needed turnovers and a safety to survive 16-12 -- and Notre Dame, of course, followed a lovely win at Texas A&M with an absolute dud of a 16-14 loss to NIU. They only fell so far in the rankings, but that's because you can only fall so far two games in.

Conference rankings

Here are FBS' 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:

1. SEC: 16.8 adjusted points per game (36.6 offense, 19.9 defense)
2. Big Ten: 10.5 adjusted points per game (27.9 offense, 17.4 defense)
3. Big 12: 6.7 adjusted points per game (31.9 offense, 25.3 defense)
4. ACC: 5.9 adjusted points per game (30.3 offense, 24.4 defense)
5. Sun Belt: -7.5 adjusted points per game (25.2 offense, 32.7 defense)
6. AAC: -7.6 adjusted points per game (24.5 offense, 32.1 defense)
7. Mountain West: -8.8 adjusted points per game (23.4 offense, 32.1 defense)
8. MAC: -13.5 adjusted points per game (16.2 offense, 29.7 defense)
9. Conference USA: -13.8 adjusted points per game (20.4 offense, 34.2 defense)

The Sun Belt crept back ahead of the AAC in the race for Best Group of 5 conference, and we've got quite a race for eighth as well. The top four, however, are pretty well established, though I guess the ACC could still catch the Big 12 if things break right in the future.

SP+ projects the College Football Playoff

Here's what the new 12-team CFP might look like based on updated SP+ projections and what the results would be if the favorite, per SP+, won each round.

First round

9 Missouri at 8 Alabama (Bama by 8.8)

12 Memphis at 5 Texas (UT by 21.3)

11 Kansas State at 6 Penn State (PSU by 8.3)

10 Tennessee at 7 Ole Miss (Ole Miss by 7.0)

Quarterfinals

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: 1 Georgia vs. 8 Alabama (UGA by 2.4)

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: 4 Utah vs. 5 Texas (UT by 11.1)

Allstate Sugar Bowl: 3 Miami vs. 6 Penn State (PSU by 2.2)

Rose Bowl Game pres. by Prudential: 2 Ohio State vs. 7 Ole Miss (Ohio State by 2.2)

Semifinals

Capital One Orange Bowl: 1 Georgia vs. 5 Texas (UGA by 3.4)

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: 2 Ohio State vs. 6 Penn State (Ohio State by 8.9)

National championship

1 Georgia vs. 2 Ohio State (UGA by 1.9)

After a ho-hum set of first-round contests, we get a series of down-to-the-wire classics in the quarterfinals. They produce a pair of conference title game rematches in the semis (not great), then another classic in the finals. (Of course, the favorites never all win, so this exercise was moot. Moot but fun.)