CFP rankings reaction ahead of conference championship week

Florida State and its fans can exhale -- the Seminoles are again a top-four team, even without injured star quarterback Jordan Travis.

Despite a shaky start on Saturday against unranked Florida, the College Football Playoff selection committee promoted the undefeated Seminoles to the No. 4 spot. The 24-15 win against the Gators validated the committee's belief that FSU's talent extends beyond Travis, but the move to No. 4 also happened in part because that spot opened following Ohio State's loss to Michigan. The bump up from No. 5 signifies the likelihood that Florida State will reach the playoff if it can beat No. 14 Louisville in the ACC championship game.

It helped FSU that Louisville is still a top-15 opponent following the Cardinals' loss to rival Kentucky on Saturday. With an ACC title and three wins against CFP top 25 teams -- No. 13 LSU, No. 14 Louisville, and No. 23 Clemson -- it would be extremely difficult for the committee to exclude the undefeated ACC champs, even with a pedestrian performance by Seminoles backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker.

Florida State's path to the playoff seems clear. That's not necessarily the case for every contender. Here's what each of the top eight teams need to do to reach the four-team playoff.

Jump to: What would a 12-team CFP look like?

The playoff path for the top 8

Win and you're in: No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Washington and No. 4 Florida State would secure their spots as undefeated conference champions if each one wins its respective league title. If. According to ESPN Stats & Information, there haven't been four undefeated Power 5 conference champions since the games began in 1992.

No. 5 Oregon: Path to the playoff: Win the Pac-12 title ... and hope Georgia wins the SEC, juuuuuust in case. The Ducks are still the committee's top one-loss team, as they were ranked ahead of Ohio State on Tuesday night. That's significant, because if Oregon beats Washington to win the Pac-12 title, a top-four finish seems likely. What if, though, Alabama beats Georgia? And Texas wins the Big 12? Is Oregon still the top one-loss team? Alabama would have a better résumé -- and a better win in the conference title game. Texas would have a win against the SEC champs. Oregon's résumé would come under the microscope in a side-by-side comparison with Alabama, Texas, Georgia and Ohio State. According to ESPN's strength of record metric, Ohio State would rank higher than both Texas and Oregon, even if they finish as one-loss conference champs. In order to remove any doubt, Oregon needs to beat Washington and at least have Georgia eliminate Alabama.

No. 6 Ohio State: Path to the playoff: Upsets everywhere. The Buckeyes need to hope Georgia beats Alabama, Florida State loses to Louisville, Texas loses to Oklahoma State and Washington eliminates Oregon. If all of that happens, the top four would likely be Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Ohio State. Alabama, FSU and Texas would all be eliminated. If Oregon wins the Pac-12 in that scenario, Ohio State and Washington would be compared side-by-side for the fourth spot. Washington would be able to claim a regular-season win over the eventual Pac-12 champion, plus a win against No. 20 Oregon State. Ohio State's best wins are against No. 10 Penn State and No. 17 Notre Dame. That would be a close debate the Buckeyes might not win.

No. 7 Texas: Path to the playoff: Win the Big 12 and hope FSU loses and Georgia beats Alabama. In this scenario, the top four would likely be Georgia, Michigan, the Pac-12 champion and Texas. The fourth spot could be a debate with Ohio State, but the Longhorns' win at Alabama would still be better than the Buckeyes' wins against Penn State and Notre Dame. The Big 12 conference title would also be a tiebreaker. It's subjective, so there's no guarantee, but the protocol would tilt toward Texas.

No. 8 Alabama: Path to the playoff: Win the SEC and hope Texas loses. Or win the SEC and have Florida State lose; that would leave Michigan, the Pac-12 champion, Alabama and Texas in the top four. The selection committee would consider one-loss Georgia and one-loss Ohio State in this scenario, but it would be difficult for them to justify, considering Alabama would have knocked off its top team, and Texas would have a win against the SEC champs. If Texas loses but Florida State wins, the top four could be Michigan, the Pac-12 champion, Florida State and Alabama.

What a 12-team playoff would look like

If a 12-team College Football Playoff were in place this season, instead of having to wait until next year, Ohio State would still have a secure place in the bracket.

After falling 30-24 at rival Michigan last week, Ohio State will need help in making the current four-team playoff. But the Buckeyes are No. 6 in the CFP selection committee's latest rankings, so not only would they make the playoffs next season, they'd get to host a first-round game at the Horseshoe.

In the new 12-team format, the six highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids. The next six highest-ranked teams get at-large bids, and the top four league champions get first-round byes.

Two-time defending national champion Georgia remains No. 1 and would get a first-round bye, along with No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Washington and No. 4 Florida State. The unbeaten Wolverines are finally the highest-ranked team from the Big Ten, after coming in behind the Buckeyes the past few weeks.

Louisville fell out of the 12-team bracket after losing 38-31 to rival Kentucky at home last week. The Cardinals were replaced by Ole Miss, which is back in the bracket after it defeated Mississippi State 17-7 in the Egg Bowl to finish the regular season with a 10-2 record.

Oregon and Washington are moving from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, and Texas is going from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2024. Those two newly expanded leagues would have 10 of the 12 teams. FSU (ACC) and Tulane (AAC) would be the only teams from outside those newly expanded conferences to make the 12-team bracket.

Here's what the first-round games would look like:

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

Tulane would avoid having to play Michigan in the Big House, but it would face a long road trip to Eugene. The Green Wave and Ducks have never played each other.

With Heisman Trophy candidate Bo Nix and the Pac-12's highest-scoring offense at 45.3 points per game, Oregon would probably be a sizable favorite over the underdog Green Wave. But that was the case in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic last season, when Tulane rallied from a 15-point deficit in the final 4:07 to stun No. 10 USC in a 46-45 upset.

Quarterback Caleb Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, passed for 462 yards with five touchdowns, but that still wasn't enough for the Trojans.

Unfortunately for Tulane, Oregon leads the Pac-12 in scoring defense, surrendering only 15.9 points per game.

The winner of this first-round game would play Florida State in the quarterfinals, which might be attractive with the Seminoles going the rest of the way without injured star quarterback Jordan Travis.

No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Ohio State

Ohio State would get new life in the 12-team bracket after losing to rival Michigan for the third season in a row. This would be another first-time matchup in the first round, as the Buckeyes and Rebels have never met on the gridiron.

The Buckeyes might be licking their wounds from another loss in The Game, but they'd have a good chance of getting past the Rebels. Ole Miss didn't fare well in its two big road games this season, losing 24-10 at Alabama and 52-17 at Georgia. It did defeat Tulane 37-20 on the road in a game that was much closer than the score would indicate, and it outlasted LSU in a 55-49 shootout at home.

Ohio State coach Ryan Day and Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin are two of the best offensive playcallers in the FBS. This would probably be another high-scoring contest.

The winner would play Washington in the quarterfinals. The Buckeyes and Huskies last played in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day 2019. Ohio State led 28-3 going into the fourth quarter and held off Washington's furious rally to win the Granddaddy of Them All in coach Urban Meyer's final game.

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Texas

This would be one of the most attractive games in the 12-team playoff, with the Nittany Lions making their first trip to Austin since a 16-12 victory on Sept. 30, 1989. In fact, the teams have played only five times, with the Nittany Lions recording a 38-15 win in the most recent meeting at the 1997 Fiesta Bowl.

Texas continues to look like the most complete team in the Big 12 heading into Saturday's conference championship game against Oklahoma State. The Longhorns are seeking their first Big 12 title since 2009 in their final game in the league.

Penn State will be watching the Big Ten championship game after finishing third in the East Division, behind Michigan and Ohio State.

The winner of the first-round game would play Michigan in the quarterfinals. The Wolverines have won three straight games against Penn State, including a 24-15 decision at Happy Valley on Nov. 11.

In what is one of the great sins in the sport, Texas and Michigan have played only once in their storied histories. The Longhorns beat the Wolverines 38-37 in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day 2005 on Dusty Mangum's 37-yard field goal as time expired. Longhorns quarterback Vince Young ran for 192 yards with four touchdowns and passed for 180 yards with one more score.

No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Alabama

This matchup has remained unchanged over the past few weeks, and the all-SEC contest would only take place if the Crimson Tide lost to Georgia in the SEC championship game. For all that the Bulldogs have accomplished under coach Kirby Smart -- winning 29 straight games and defeating Alabama 33-18 in the CFP National Championship game after the 2021 season -- they've never beaten the Tide in the SEC championship game.

The Tide and the Tigers have played just four times as conference foes, including Alabama's 42-13 rout in the 2014 SEC title game in Atlanta. The Tigers are 0-4 against the Tide as SEC members, losing by an average of 27.5 points.

The winner would face Georgia in the quarterfinals. The Bulldogs defeated the Tigers 30-21 at Sanford Stadium on Nov. 4. Playing each other twice in three games might be uncomfortable for both the Bulldogs and the Tide.