With only Rivalry Week and Championship Week remaining before the College Football Playoff is set and all the bowl matchups are revealed, the stakes are getting high.
The biggest shakeup in Week 12 came with the leg injury to Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis, which throws the Seminoles' standing as a playoff team into question.
Elsewhere, the major players held serve, with Washington hanging on to beat Oregon State and Oregon rolling over Arizona State in the Pac-12, where the fight for a CFP spot is particularly intense -- assuming the conference gets one.
Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are here to sort out what Week 12's results mean for the entire bowl picture, making their projections for all 43 games, plus offering their takes on the CFP picture, coaches who most need a win this week and the games they'd be most excited to see.
All times Eastern
College Football Playoff
CFP National Championship presented by AT&T
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan
CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon
CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Texas
CFP breakdown
Bonagura: The lack of major upsets has made the playoff breakdown similar week-to-week. That's the case, again, with the usual small adjustments.
Georgia seemingly has a clear path to the No. 1 seed if it wins out. That could change if the Bulldogs show some vulnerability and either Michigan or Ohio State is dominant in their head-to-head game, then again in the Big Ten title game, but let's assume Georgia holds down the top spot and the winner of Michigan/Ohio State goes on to win the Big Ten and gets No. 2.
If Washington wins out, the Huskies would be the clear No. 3. They just beat the No. 11 team in the CFP rankings, Oregon State, on the road and, in this scenario, would likely add a win against the top-ranked one-loss team in Oregon. (The Ducks go to the Pac-12 title game unless they lose and Arizona beats Arizona State.) If the Ducks win out, they would probably land at No. 3 or No. 4, but could get left out depending on how things break elsewhere.
Florida State's situation, after the injury to Jordan Travis, is one to monitor when the new CFP rankings are released Tuesday. How will the committee view the Noles without their Heisman-candidate QB? Does this set up the possibility that they can get jumped by a one-loss team in one of the final polls, even if they remain unbeaten? For now, I left them at No. 4. It would feel cruel to try to justify an unbeaten team getting dropped due to an injury.
Texas is lingering just outside the top four and stands to be the team most likely to benefit should Florida State falter.
I raised this last week, but I think it's worth repeating: If Alabama wins out and there is a situation with (1) undefeated Michigan or Ohio State, (2) undefeated Washington, (3) undefeated Florida State, (4) 12-1 Texas and (5) 12-1 Alabama, it would make a mockery of the sport if Alabama got in ahead of a team it lost to (Texas) at home. We can all agree that the SEC is the best conference, but that doesn't mean every scenario requires the SEC champion to be in a four-team playoff field. The playoff would certainly feel incomplete without Georgia or Alabama this year, but this just shows how the four-team playoff was always a hairbrained system to determine the champion of a sport with 10 conferences and more than 130 teams.
Schlabach: I shook up my top four once again, not as much because of Saturday's results, but because of the serious leg injury Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis suffered in the first quarter of a 58-13 victory against FCS program North Alabama.
The Heisman Trophy candidate was taken off the field on a cart with an air cast on his left leg. Tate Rodemaker, a junior from Valdosta, Georgia, threw for 217 yards with two touchdowns as FSU scored 58 straight points against the Lions. Rodemaker will probably go the rest of the way for the Seminoles, starting with Saturday's game at rival Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN app) and then a Dec. 2 showdown against No. 10 Louisville in the ACC championship game.
Georgia remains my No. 1 team after it won its 28th consecutive game, 38-10 at Tennessee. The two-time defending national champions became the first team to go unbeaten in the SEC in three straight seasons. The Bulldogs play at rival Georgia Tech on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC), then face Alabama in the Dec. 2 SEC championship game in Atlanta.
Unbeaten Michigan remains No. 2 after it took down Maryland 31-24 on the road. It was the Wolverines' second straight game playing without coach Jim Harbaugh, who was suspended by the Big Ten for the program's sign-stealing scheme. Michigan gets rival Ohio State at the Big House on Saturday, and the winner will secure a spot against Iowa in the Dec. 2 Big Ten championship game. Harbaugh will also miss "The Game" before returning for the postseason.
I went with Oregon as my No. 3 team after the Ducks defeated Arizona State 49-13 on the road. The Ducks can clinch a spot in the Pac-12 championship game by beating Oregon State in their rivalry game Friday night or if Arizona loses at Arizona State the next day. I'm projecting that Oregon beats the Beavers at home and then Washington in the Pac-12 championship game.
I'm projecting Florida State loses to Louisville in the ACC championship, knocking the Seminoles out of the top four. I replaced them with Texas, which defeated Iowa State 26-16 on the road Saturday. The Longhorns must still get past Texas Tech at home Friday (7:30 p.m ET, ABC) and possibly Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship (if the Cowboys defeat BYU at home Saturday).
New Year's Six
Friday, Dec. 29
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Florida State
Saturday, Dec. 30
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Tulane
Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 1
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Penn State
Favorite matchups
Bonagura: Is it OK to admit I'm really looking forward to seeing Iowa in its bowl game? The idea of watching the Hawkeyes, without a functioning offense, play Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin in a meaningless exhibition game is exactly how part of New Year's Day should be spent.
Schlabach: Georgia and Texas have played just once in the past 39 years. The Longhorns upset the Bulldogs 28-21 in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day 2019. After the game, Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger famously proclaimed, "Longhorn Nation, we're back!" That prediction didn't turn out well, as the Longhorns went 8-5 in the 2019 season and 7-3 in 2020. Coach Tom Herman was fired, and the Longhorns have been trying to get back among the sport's elite ever since. The Bulldogs would be playing for a spot in a third straight CFP national championship game. Georgia is scheduled to play in Austin, Texas, for the first time since 1958 next season.
Bowl season
Note: James Madison is included in our projections based on the expectation there will not be enough bowl-eligible teams.
Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. Howard
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. Howard
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: New Mexico State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison
Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Rice
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Wyoming
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Utah State vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Air Force vs. New Mexico State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCLA vs. UNLV
Schlabach: USC vs. UNLV
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Cal
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Syracuse
Monday, Dec. 18
Famous Toastery Bowl
Jerry Richardson Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas State vs. San José State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Colorado State
Coach who most needs a win this week
Bonagura: Dan Lanning, Oregon. He doesn't need it in the sense that it will affect his employment, but if the Ducks lose to Oregon State, they'll be out of the playoff picture and likely won't get to play for the Pac-12 title, either. Those kind of stakes are much more important than any team sitting at five wins hoping to reach a bottom-tier bowl.
Schlabach: It would be surprising if Florida fired coach Billy Napier after two seasons, but upsetting rival Florida State and qualifying for a bowl game sure would take some of the heat off him. Napier's teams are 11-13 in two seasons in Gainesville. The Gators have dropped four straight after falling 33-31 at No. 9 Missouri on Saturday night. At 5-6, they'll have to upset the Seminoles to finish .500 and qualify for a bowl game. They'll have to do it without quarterback Graham Mertz, who sustained a broken collarbone against Missouri. Florida hasn't had three straight losing seasons since 1945 to '47.
Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Marshall vs. San José State
Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Troy
Schlabach: South Florida vs. UCF
Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Liberty vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama
Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. UCF
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Navy
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Utah State
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Toledo
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Utah
Schlabach: Maryland vs. UCLA
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Rice vs. Fresno State
Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Ohio
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Army vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. UTSA
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Kansas
Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. SMU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Memphis
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky
DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oregon State
TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Boston College vs. SMU
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: NC State vs. Oklahoma State
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Arizona
Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Boston College vs. USC
Schlabach: Duke vs. Utah
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Troy
Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State
Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. LSU
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Ole Miss