College football Week 11 buzz: Michigan-Penn State, Ole Miss-Georgia, first-year coaches, picks, more

It's Week 11 of the season, and we might finally get to see how good the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines are, as they will be playing their first ranked opponent in the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions. Every other team in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings has played at least two ranked opponents already. (The No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs will play their third ranked team this weekend.)

While Michigan is embroiled in a sign-stealing scandal, it hasn't faced any sort of challenge on the field. The Wolverines have allowed more than 10 points just twice this season, and they have scored more than 30 points in every game. While Penn State has already lost to the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes, it can still find itself back in the Big Ten championship race with an outside shot at the playoff.

According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, this game has the highest adjust playoff leverage of any game remaining this season. If Michigan beats the Lions, it will have a 70% chance to reach the CFP and a 56% chance to win the Big Ten East, and Ohio State's chances to win the division will fall to 44%. If the Wolverines lose, their playoff chances will drop to 18%, while Penn State's will rise to 42%, and Ohio State will be the prohibitive favorite to win the Big Ten East (66%) ahead of Penn State (27%) and Michigan (8%).

In the ACC, the No. 11 Louisville Cardinals continue their surprise run to the conference championship game, hosting the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), while the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles, who have already clinched a trip to the ACC title game, host their in-state rivals, the Miami Hurricanes.

ESPN insiders Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg break down these matchups, while also looking at the job Jeff Brohm has done with the Cardinals, and check in on potential hot seats and how the Ole Miss Rebels could upset Georgia.

Jump to a section:
Michigan-Penn State keys | Rating first-year coaches
Ole Miss improvements | Status of Miami-FSU
New hot seat coach | Upset picks | Emptying the notebook

What's more important for Penn State to upset Michigan -- its defense or Drew Allar hitting some big plays?

Dinich: Penn State has to find a way to slow the Wolverines down, because they certainly aren't going to stop them. PSU defensive coordinator Manny Diaz called it "the ultimate test" and had high praise for Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy, whom Diaz said should absolutely be in the Heisman Trophy conversation.

"He's doing things that are being shoulder-shrugged, that are quite remarkable," Diaz said of McCarthy. "He's very accurate, but then his feet, and the way he keeps plays alive with his feet, you really have to defend two plays.

"Their receivers and tight ends do a phenomenal job of staying alive and getting into the scramble drill for him. And then, if that's taken away, he can run. He really stresses you from the moment he gets the ball to the whistle."

Diaz said understanding rush lane integrity and where McCarthy likes to escape will be key, but the first thing is to "take away a quarterback's best friend, which is the run." All while not forgetting that Michigan is one of the best teams in the country in explosive passing plays -- something that hasn't come easily for Penn State's offense.

Rittenberg: After watching Allar struggle at Ohio State -- he was sacked four times and completed only one pass for longer than 19 yards -- his play takes on added significance against a Michigan defense that ranks No. 5 nationally in average yards per pass attempt allowed (4.99). Allar's touchdown-to-interception ratio (20-to-1) is excellent for a first-year starter, and coach James Franklin praised his overall operation of the position and the offense.

"He's done a really good job of managing protections, he's done a really good job of managing the run game and he's done a really good job of not taking sacks, throwing the ball away when necessary, and protecting the football," Franklin told me. "We're No. 1 in the country in turnover margin, and I think that is going to be a huge stat on Saturday."

Penn State is plus-16 in turnover margin, while Michigan is plus-9 and tied for sixth. The key will be whether Michigan can get ahead and possibly force Allar to take some more chances with his throws. He is 122nd nationally in air yards per attempt (6.67) and tied for 99th in completions of 20 yards or longer (17).

The Lions might try to ride their defense and run game and grind out a low-scoring win, but it's hard to see them winning without calling some shot plays for Allar -- and hitting on them.

"He's not very accurate down the field," a Big Ten coach told me. "They've got a couple of good receivers, he's got arm strength and potential there, but his deep ball accuracy is very average. He hasn't proven to be a threat in that area."

Dinich: Well, it also doesn't help that Allar is without a go-to receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr. Penn State's wideouts were arguably the biggest offensive question this past offseason. The entire offense should be more confident, though, coming off a 51-15 win at Maryland. By sustaining drives and controlling the clock like they did at Maryland, the Lions will give their defense a chance.

Penn State's D-line against Michigan's offensive line should be a terrific matchup. The Lions are much more comfortable in the scheme and in how to cancel run gaps better, and they are playing faster as a result. There's also enough depth to rotate guys to keep them fresh.

"In comparison to where we were a year ago, we feel like we've made great strides in how we play up front," Diaz said, "and how we've been able to play the run all season, but this is the ultimate test. This is what you live for. To be challenged by the best who do it."

Rittenberg: I'm fascinated to see how the Penn State front, which could get ends Chop Robinson and Amin Vanover back for Saturday's contest, performs against a Michigan line that bullied the Lions last season for 418 rushing yards. Franklin thinks PSU's defensive line depth is better than it has been, and he noted how well the group played against Maryland, even without Robinson and Vanover.

Michigan is a different challenge, though.

"The biggest thing is staying within our identity and not trying to become something on this Saturday because the analytics say you have to be this to beat a certain team," Franklin said. "You've got to play to your strengths and try to hide your deficiencies as much as you possibly can. And then with Michigan, you've got to do it for four quarters. Typically, they've been able to wear people down and really control the game."

To your point on the wideouts, Penn State feels good about KeAndre Lambert-Smith (51 receptions, 645 yards). The key is having Dante Cephas continue to establish himself as a No. 2 receiver, after recording his best performance against Maryland (six catches, 53 yards, two touchdowns).

"Really important because, defensively, if there's only one guy with production, that can be fairly easy to take away," Franklin said. "When there's multiple guys you have to deal with, including the tight ends, that's when you become a more effective offense, you become a more explosive offense and you become a little bit more challenging to defend."

Who has done the best as a first-year coach this season?

Rittenberg: Louisville's Jeff Brohm is the easy pick -- after putting the Cardinals in prime position to reach their first-ever ACC championship game in his first season. What has stood out most is his ability to guide a team not rooted in volume passing and aggressive play calls but in defense and the run game, led by explosive back Jawhar Jordan (7.1 yards per carry, 11 touchdowns). Brohm had a good run at Purdue, but there were times where I felt his natural aggressiveness cost the Boilers games, like last year's opener against Penn State and the 2019 opener at Nevada. This season, he has been committed to Louisville's identity and has won games in different ways.

Brohm recently told me that he became more involved with defense three or four years ago, saying he wanted to ensure the unit "took on my personality." Louisville ranks fifth nationally in third-down defense (28% conversions) and sixth in completion percentage against (53.5).

"We want to create different looks, disguise things for the quarterback, and we want to try to defeat their quarterback, as much as defeating their coach," Brohm said. "At the same time, you know, apply as much pressure on the quarterback as we can, without giving up a lot of big plays. They've understood the package, and we've been able to adjust and adapt very well."

Dinich: Has everyone forgotten that Colorado won one football game last year? One. Deion Sanders has elevated the program to national relevance simply by being there. At 4-5, the Buffaloes still aren't bowl eligible, and it's going to be extremely difficult to find two more wins with games against Arizona, Washington State and Utah. But we're talking about his first season. With an unprecedented roster overhaul. On a team that opened the season with a road win against a program that had just played in the national championship game. Part of this answer depends on what you define as success, and to me, it's about more than just winning championships or contending for them. Sanders has upgraded the talent at Colorado enough to give USC fits. Sanders has done such a good job, he has made you expect that the Buffs are going bowling and disappointed if they're not. He didn't just change the roster. He changed perception.

Has Ole Miss improved since losing to Alabama? Where can it find success against Georgia?

Dinich: Ole Miss has absolutely improved since losing 24-10 to the Crimson Tide. It ran for just 56 yards on 29 attempts (1.9 yards per carry) against Alabama. The Rebels also had a punt blocked and threw an interception.

"It seemed like they were playing on their heels a little bit in the Alabama game," one SEC coach said. "They also didn't get their run game going against Alabama, which has been critical to their recent success, and were poor on third down and in the red zone. All of these areas, they have strengthened since."

One thing to watch for is offensive penalties, which could hurt the Rebels' ability to sustain drives against the stingy Georgia defense.

"Georgia will match up with them up front," the coach said, "and will be able to close the spaces on the perimeter. The game will be about ball security, sustaining drives [third-down performance] and being able to connect on a shot or two. Penalties and turnovers will make it hard on Ole Miss."

Rittenberg: Auburn coach Hugh Freeze told me Ole Miss had definitely improved between the Alabama loss and the Auburn game a month later, especially on defense. Freeze said Ole Miss' D-line is formidable and could create some challenges for Georgia's run game, which ranks 46th nationally (167.7 yards per game). He is curious about Georgia's wide receivers offsetting the loss of star tight end Brock Bowers.

"They're going to have to have playmakers make plays in the passing game," Freeze told me. "Ole Miss is going to score some points. They're explosive on offense. But Georgia's defense doesn't give up many."

Ole Miss could try to capitalize on a Georgia defense now missing standout linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson. Georgia is tied for 68th nationally in sacks per game and tied for 87th in tackles for loss per game, although the Bulldogs are tied for 28th in generating dropbacks under pressure (118).

Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart has been sacked 20 times. He has completed just 43.8% of his passes with only one touchdown when pressured, as opposed 73.3% of his passes with 36 plays of 20 yards or longer -- trailing only LSU's Jayden Daniels and Washington's Michael Penix Jr. -- when not facing the rush.

"If you don't get pressure on Dart, they're good," an SEC West assistant told me. "If you get pressure on Dart, you can hurt him."

Dinich: It isn't just Dart, though, that Georgia's defense has to worry about, though one coach called him "a creator, athletic enough to extend plays and convert with his legs."

Georgia also has to try to slow down the Ole Miss running game, led by Quinshon Judkins, who has 793 yards and 12 touchdowns. Ulysses Bentley IV is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Ole Miss thrives on horizontal stretch in the passing game, and that frees these guys up.

"[Ole Miss coach Lane] Kiffin does a really nice job of designing those shot plays -- attacking your coverage and leverage as well as building them off looks you've seen before," the SEC coach said.

Rittenberg: That coach is right about shot plays, which Freeze thinks will decide the game in Athens. Ole Miss ranks third nationally in plays of 20 yards or longer with 65, while Georgia is 15th with 53. Wide receivers Tre Harris and Dayton Wade are big-play threats for the Rebels, while Georgia has gotten a nice boost from wideout Ladd McConkey over the past two games (12 receptions, 230 yards).

"Let's take turnovers out of it, the game's going to come down to who has the most explosive plays," Freeze said. "That probably will dictate who has the most points. It's going to be really hard for both teams to just go up and down the field against each other's defenses without explosive plays."

How close is Florida State-Miami to having national relevance on both sides again?

Dinich: When I was at Miami earlier this season for the Canes' win against Texas A&M, I thought they were closer than their 6-3 record might now indicate. You should have seen all of the recruits afterward with coach Mario Cristobal, lining up for bro hugs and photos. Everyone who follows this sport knows they shouldn't have lost to Georgia Tech. If that didn't happen, would they have lost the following week at North Carolina? Florida State is simply ahead of Miami -- and Florida -- in building its program.

The Noles are the team to beat in the state, and I talked to coach Mike Norvell this week about what he has seen in the development of Miami from the recruiting trail and on film as he prepares to face the visiting Canes this week.

"When these two teams face off, the expectation is you'll see a lot of talent on the field," he said. "When it comes to recruiting, it's a lot of crossover and guys that we go after, but I think you see a program that's working to continue to grow and the same path of what we're trying to do."

The difference between FSU and Miami is consistency and depth. The Seminoles have grown from last year, when they beat LSU but went on to lose three straight and fall out of the ACC and national pictures. This year, they beat LSU, and they have already clinched a spot in the conference title game. Miami topped the Aggies in what appeared to be a pivotal point for the program -- but later suffered arguably the worst loss of the season against the Yellow Jackets.

Rittenberg: Alonzo Highmith, Miami's general manager and a former national champion fullback for the Hurricanes, stressed to me that both teams ultimately must dominate in-state recruiting like they used to when FSU-Miami was the nation's biggest game. Highsmith recalled watching Alabama in a recent national championship game with a secondary made up of players from South Florida.

"In the old days, two of those guys might have gone to Florida State, two of them might have gone to Miami," Highsmith said. "When Miami and Florida State were both in the top 10, recruiting was easier because there was no need to leave the state of Florida."

The good news for Miami is that Cristobal is one of the best head coach recruiters of his generation. Talent won't be an issue for the U, and Highsmith pointed to 2023 recruits from the area, such as Rueben Bain (ESPN No. 69 overall), Damari Brown (No. 112) and Mark Fletcher (No. 204). But consistency is the big word, HD, and Miami has fallen behind Florida State in taking talent -- FSU more so through the portal -- and translating it into reliable success.

"Both teams have been down a little bit, Florida State's back up," Highsmith said. "Now you're seeing Miami reemerging and trying to get up to where Florida State is now. Players in the state of Florida are seeing the change in Miami. They want to be part of that. So that's what it's going to take for both of these teams to get back to that rivalry."

Is there an under-the-radar head-coaching job that could open up in a month?

Rittenberg: Keep an eye on Mississippi State. After a weekend when several coaches under various degrees of pressure won -- Arkansas' Sam Pittman, Indiana's Tom Allen, Houston's Dana Holgorsen -- the coaching market is shaping up to be much lighter than normal. But unlike other hot spots, Mississippi State isn't as financially hamstrung if it wants to move on from Zach Arnett after only one year. Would it be harsh? Sure. Arnett is a good coach who took over a difficult situation after the death of Mike Leach in December. But the Bulldogs need a win over Texas A&M or Ole Miss to avoid their worst SEC record (1-7) since 2006. They rank 97th nationally in scoring (22.7 points per game) despite some experience on offense.

Arnett is the lowest-paid coach in the SEC ($3 million) and would be owed $4.5 million -- subject to offset and mitigation -- if fired this season. Athletic director Zac Selmon, hired shortly after Arnett was promoted, could look for his own candidate and has some good options, including Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby and Troy coach Jon Sumrall.

What's your upset pick for Week 11?

Rittenberg: Missouri (+1.5) over Tennessee. I'm back in the win column thanks to Arizona. But I'm picking Tennessee to lose as a slight road favorite for the second time in three weeks. (The first time didn't work out so well for me.) Both teams have balanced offenses and underrated defenses, but Tennessee's offense, other than in the Kentucky game, hasn't been quite as sharp away from Neyland Stadium.

Dinich: Penn State (+4.5) over Michigan. Dare I pick Penn State? I dare. Michigan's offense is fantastic, but it hasn't faced a defense as good as Penn State's yet. This will not be like last year, when the Wolverines ran all over PSU. An improved defensive front plus home-field advantage gives the Nits a chance.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week/what's the best thing you heard this week?

Dinich:

• The College Football Playoff management committee is meeting Thursday at the Dallas-Fort Worth Grand Hyatt, where it could discuss how the 12 teams will be determined in the new playoff format, which begins next season.

Whether a majority agree to present a recommendation for a 5-plus-7 model to the presidents and chancellors for their unanimous approval depends on who you ask.

At their last in-person meeting in September, the group of 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick were waiting for a resolution in the Pac-12, where there's an ongoing legal battle between the 10 departing Pac-12 schools and the two remaining, Oregon State and Washington State. A hearing for a preliminary injunction is set for Nov. 14 -- which is why the CFP hasn't determined yet how many Power 5 conference champions will be rewarded with automatic bids.

The original proposal included the six highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next six highest-ranked teams. If the Pac-12 dissolves or doesn't hold Power 5 status, there is strong support to change the model to 5-plus-7, but it has to be unanimous at the presidential level. Washington State president Kirk Schulz is on the CFP board and would likely vote against it, because the current 6-plus-6 model would mean either his team or Oregon State would always have a spot in the playoff -- even in an NCAA-allowed two-team conference next season.

Tulane president Michael Fitts would also likely vote against it. American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco has already voiced his opposition so that the Group of 5 conferences could have two champions represented each of the next two years.

With that topic possibly still on hold, the heaviest discussions will be future broadcast partners and revenue distribution, though there is always a chance the allegations against Michigan come up. As of Monday, the commissioners had not discussed it nor directed the CFP to handle it in any particular way.

"The CFP is not an investigatory or an enforcement entity," Mid-American Conference commissioner Jon Steinbrecher told ESPN this week. "We don't have policies or procedures around that."

One CFP source said it will be an "elephant in the room" and that they would be surprised if anyone brought it up.

Rittenberg:

• SMU isn't undefeated like James Madison and Liberty or ranked like Tulane, but the Mustangs are looking more like the best team outside of a power conference. Coach Rhett Lashlee's team is No. 22 in the Football Power Index, well ahead of the next non-Power 5 teams in Troy (45), James Madison (46) and Tulane (48). SMU is No. 34 in SP+, four spots behind James Madison. After dropping early games at Oklahoma and TCU, SMU has won five straight, outscoring its opponents 225-67 during the stretch. SMU joins Georgia, Michigan and Penn State as the only teams ranked in the top 10 in both scoring offense (40 points per game) and scoring defense (15.9 points per game allowed).

Lashlee highlighted SMU's defensive line as the biggest key to the surge, telling me three of the starters could be first-team All-AAC selections, and that the group can go 10 deep. Returnees defensive tackle Elijah Chapman (4.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss), DE Nelson Paul and DT DeVere Levelston have stood out, and SMU hit on Miami transfers Elijah Roberts (7.5 sacks) and Jordan Miller, a defensive tackle and "the top guy all the [NFL] scouts are asking about," Lashlee told me. He said the Oklahoma game, which SMU trailed 14-11 early in the fourth quarter, proved how good the line could be.

"If you watch the first 25, 30 plays in that game, we absolutely get after them up front," Lashlee said. "I mean, that's OU."

Despite a new starting quarterback in Preston Stone (2,362 pass yards, 21 touchdowns) and 25 transfers, SMU found its identity after the early tests. SMU is in a three-way tie atop the AAC, seeking its first title as a member of the league and a possible New Year's Six bowl berth.

"It's been 40 years since we've done it, 1982 was the last outright [conference title] with Eric Dickerson," Lashlee said. "We've accomplished a lot of things that haven't been done, like road wins in the conference and defense, but it would be special. We've put ourselves in contention. Now we've got to see if we can play ourselves into that final group."

• Auburn likely will have deeper and more talented teams under coach Hugh Freeze in the future, but the Tigers are finding ways to compete, especially on defense. Despite some thin spots, Auburn has surrendered more than 28 points just once and allowed 15 points or fewer in all five of its wins. The Tigers lead the SEC in both takeaways (15) and red zone defense, and have standouts safety Jaylin Simpson (four interceptions), linebacker Eugene Asante (67 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 5 quarterback hurries) and defensive end Marcus Harris (4.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss).

"We've got some veterans in the back end, those guys have played a lot of football, but we're not deep," Freeze told me. "We have no depth in the D-line, either, but Marcus Harris had just had an outstanding season and leads well there. Linebacker's kind of a committee there. [Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts] and the defensive staff have done a really nice job of calling games, but having some older kids over there has really helped."

The offense has been up and down, especially at quarterback, but Auburn has seen growth in the running game behind veteran Jarquez Hunter, who has 327 rushing yards over the past two games. Freeze is making do with what he has, but knows he will need to hit the accelerator in recruiting.

"I'm not one to cast judgment on anyone, because until you walk in somebody's shoes, you really don't know exactly what everybody was dealing with, but for Auburn to be 50th or whatever the [recruiting] ranking is over the last four to five years is not acceptable," Freeze said. "We've got to change that fast, or I'll be out the door."