When the calendar flips to November, it's like going to college far away from home: It doesn't matter what you were before, it only matters what you are now.
Those dismal first 15 games (and four wins) of the Brent Pry era at Virginia Tech? They don't matter: The Hokies are ACC contenders after winning three of four and dismantling Syracuse on Thursday night.
Those three .500-ish seasons for Eliah Drinkwitz at Missouri? In the past. The Tigers are 7-1 and chugging toward a "winner becomes SEC East favorite" game Saturday against Georgia.
Those brilliant showings that kept both Utah and Oregon State in the Pac-12 race despite early losses? They don't matter so much now. Both the Utes and Beavers were just about eliminated Saturday. Remember how good Duke and Syracuse looked during respective 4-0 starts? They have lost a combined seven of eight since and are just trying to rally for bowl eligibility.
Remember how it looked like Oklahoma and Texas would run away with the Big 12? Remember how awful Oklahoma State looked in a 33-7 loss to South Alabama? Forget it all. The smoking hot Cowboys just rode Ollie Gordon II to a monthlong winning streak and are part of a five-way tie for first in the conference. (Remember when Iowa State lost to Ohio in September? Yeah, the Cyclones are tied for the lead, too.) Kansas' upset of Oklahoma -- the Jayhawks' first home win over a top-10 team in 39 years -- helped to create the spectacular logjam.
Week 9 of the college football season scrambled our brains a bit. Let's unpack what we just saw and preview what should be an awfully wild November. Some of the surprising stories above might be fleeting, but that doesn't mean we can't enjoy them for now!
Jump to a section:
National title tiers | CFP rankings preview
Conference races | Bowl pushes
Heisman of week | Top games
Where the national title race stands
According to SP+, here are the teams that currently have at least a 3% chance of winning the national title: Michigan 25%, Georgia 19%, Ohio State 16%, Florida State 9%, Oregon 7%, Washington 6%, Alabama 5%, Texas 3% and Penn State 3%.
In a way, you could say that we've basically played nine weeks of football to eliminate Clemson and USC. Heading into the season, the foursome of Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Alabama had a combined 51% chance of winning the national title, per SP+. Now, thanks primarily to Michigan (which has jumped from 14% to 25%), their combined odds are 65%. Oregon and Washington, at a combined 15-1, have basically replaced Clemson and USC, and FSU has jumped from 2% in the preseason to the No. 4 favorite now.
But that's the destination. Let's talk about the journey. Looking at who still has a chance to make the CFP expands the umbrella a bit. Let's break the contenders into tiers.
Tier 1 (greater than 50% chance of reaching the playoff): Michigan 71%, Ohio State 67%, Georgia 65%, Florida State 55%
For now, we're going to ignore the elephant in the room: I have no idea how Michigan Spygate will impact the Wolverines' performance or whether the NCAA or Big Ten might take action to punish the team before the season is over. I doubt it, and I assume the Wolverines continue to charge toward another CFP appearance, but you never know.
Michigan has been No. 1 in SP+ for six weeks; the Wolverines' poor strength of schedule (they're currently 109th in SP+ strength of schedule) could keep them out of the No. 1 spot in the first CFP rankings this week, but they still have a 36% chance of finishing 12-0, and big games against Penn State and Ohio State will give the SOS a pretty solid overall boost in case there is a loss.
In all, SP+ says there's a 41% chance that both Michigan and Ohio State get in regardless of who wins their Rivalry Week encounter. That would be unprecedented! (Oh wait, it happened last year too.)
Georgia also has a bit of a strength-of-schedule issue (the Bulldogs' SOS is 88th), but it still has a 39% chance of finishing 12-0 -- honestly, it should probably be higher than that considering the Dawgs' propensity for showing up when they need to -- and a 48% chance of winning the SEC.
Florida State was slow to earn the trust of SP+ thanks to some "wait until the second half to shift into gear" tendencies, but the Seminoles are in increasingly strong playoff shape. They have a 47% chance of finishing 12-0 -- best of any power conference team -- and they're overwhelming favorites to win the ACC.
Tier 2 (11-30% chance): Washington 30%, Oregon 25%, Alabama 22%, Penn State 14%, Texas 14%
Of the five teams in this group, four have already spent their mulligans. Oregon lost to Washington, Alabama to Texas, Penn State to Ohio State and Texas to Oklahoma. Granted, SP+ says there's an 11% chance of a two-loss team sneaking into the CFP, but that's still a long shot.
Why is Washington in this group and not the one above? Mainly because the Huskies' next three games are all against teams ranked between 14th and 26th in SP+, and because of their own dip in form -- they've needed late heroics to beat Arizona State and Stanford the past two weeks -- their odds of winning the three games are only 25%. Also, Oregon has jumped them in SP+ and would be favored in a Pac-12 championship game rematch.
Tier 3 (1-10% chance): Ole Miss 8%, Notre Dame 8%, Oklahoma 7%, Louisville 6%, Missouri 4%, LSU 2%, Tennessee 1%
If you're looking for something chaotic, here's the group from which it will probably come. If Georgia suffers an upset in the homestretch, it will likely come against a one-loss Ole Miss or Missouri or two-loss Tennessee, which could theoretically prompt a shocking SEC title run. And if things get really weird -- say, the Pac-12 champion has two losses and the Big Ten doesn't get two teams in -- that might open the door for a two-loss team like Notre Dame, Tennessee or LSU.
The Fighting Irish have looked spectacular over the past two weeks and could make another statement by walloping Clemson on Saturday. These odds are probably overstated, and Notre Dame just might not have the schedule to make up ground. But LSU does! The Tigers have also looked incredible in recent weeks, and an 11-2 LSU team would boast wins over both Alabama and (probably) Georgia in the SEC championship game.
An Oklahoma run obviously isn't out of the realm of possibility either. But the Sooners' recent form -- they've dropped from seventh to 11th in SP+ (30th on defense) in the past two weeks and spent their mulligan in Lawrence, Kansas -- has certainly dropped those odds.
What Tuesday's CFP rankings should look like
Late last year, I cranked out what a BCS-like formula constituted of two-thirds poll averages and one-third computer ratings might look like if used for the purposes of CFP rankings. (The computer average was derived from SP+, FPI, ESPN's strength of record and my own résumé SP+. Two power ratings and two résumé ratings.)
As it turned out, it mirrored the CFP committee's thinking pretty closely. I shared the results of the BCS-CFP rankings each week, and it showed us pretty clearly where the committee was deviating in some way. With the first 2023 rankings set for Tuesday, let's see where things stand.
(To serve my own preferences, I shifted the weights to 50% polls, 50% computers. What can I say? I'm pro-computer.)
1. Georgia (8-0)
2. Michigan (8-0)
3. Ohio State (8-0)
4. Florida State (8-0)
5. Washington (8-0)
6. Oregon (7-1)
7. Texas (7-1)
8. Alabama (7-1)
9. Penn State (7-1)
10. Ole Miss (7-1)
11. Oklahoma (7-1)
12. Notre Dame (7-2)
13. LSU (6-2)
14. Missouri (7-1)
15. Louisville (7-1)
The polls have stuck with Georgia through thick and thin, but I'm curious about the committee's opinion of the Dawgs, who, like Michigan, have a bit of an "ain't played nobody" problem. Ohio State and Florida State have sparkly résumés but have maybe shown a few more flaws, too. And if Oregon is the highest-ranked one-loss team, that means Washington has the most impressive win of the season. Do the Huskies get credit for that, or are they punished for their recent poor form?
Mind you, most of the answers tend to be pretty obvious by the time the regular season is over. But the first top five will certainly tell us a lot about what the committee cares most about.
Where each conference race stands
Next year, with autobids determining spots in the expanded, 12-team playoff, conference title races will take on even more importance than they already have. But they are already important, and of the 10 FBS conferences, most enter November pretty uncertain. Let's take a look at how things stand for each conference.
(I'm listing everyone with at least a 0.5% title chance in each category below, and I'm listing the conferences in order of average SP+ rating.)
SEC
West odds: Alabama 73%, LSU 21%, Ole Miss 5%, Texas A&M 1%
East odds: Georgia 81%, Missouri 11%, Tennessee 8%
Conference odds: Georgia 48%, Alabama 32%, LSU 9%, Missouri 5%, Tennessee 4%, Ole Miss 2%, Texas A&M 0.5%
Biggest remaining games: Missouri at Georgia (Nov. 4), LSU at Alabama (Nov. 4), Tennessee at Missouri (Nov. 11), Georgia at Tennessee (Nov. 18), Texas A&M at LSU (Nov. 25)
Here comes a huge Saturday. Alabama hosts LSU, and Georgia hosts Missouri, and if both home favorites win -- SP+ gives Georgia an 80% chance and Bama a 63% chance, which means an almost exactly 50% chance of both winning -- that will just about settle things. Things could still get messy if Georgia loses to Tennessee in a couple more weeks, but the Dawgs and Crimson Tide will still see much better odds next week if they win as planned.
Of course, there's also a 7% chance that both LSU and Missouri win. I'm just saying ... let's get weird, November.
Pac-12
Conference odds: Washington 62%, Oregon 21%, USC 11%, Oregon State 4%, Utah 2%, Arizona 0.8%
Biggest remaining games: Washington at USC (Nov. 4), Utah at Washington (Nov. 11), USC at Oregon (Nov. 11), Washington at Oregon State (Nov. 18), Utah at Arizona (Nov. 18), Oregon State at Oregon (Nov. 24)
Washington is one up in the loss column on both Oregon and USC, and the Huskies would have a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over Oregon. That makes them quite likely to reach the Pac-12 championship game even if Oregon has slipped ahead of them in the power ratings. Meanwhile, USC managed to hold on to hope thanks to its late comeback win against Cal on Saturday. The Trojans are very much trending in the wrong direction, however.
Big 12
Conference odds: Oklahoma 41%, Texas 24%, Kansas State 19%, Oklahoma State 10%, Iowa State 4%, Kansas 1%, West Virginia 0.6%
Biggest remaining games: Kansas State at Texas (Nov. 4), Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (Nov. 4), Kansas at Iowa State (Nov. 4), Texas at Iowa State (Nov. 18), Kansas State at Kansas (Nov. 18), Iowa State at Kansas State (Nov. 25)
A week ago, OU's conference title odds stood at 65%, while Texas was at 12% and the rest of the field was at 23%. But following Oklahoma's upset loss at Kansas, the Sooners' odds fell 24 percentage points. Others have risen accordingly.
Kansas State and Oklahoma State both look spectacular at the moment -- just in time for OU-OSU in Week 10 and KSU-Texas in Week 11 -- and with Quinn Ewers out with injury, interim Texas quarterback Maalik Murphy looked awfully shaky, especially early on, in the Longhorns' win over BYU on Saturday.
OU and Texas still have excellent odds of playing in a rematch in Jerry World in a few more weeks. But those odds went in the wrong direction Saturday. The Big 12 might still have a few more punches to land on the blue bloods before they head to the SEC next year.
Big Ten
East odds: Michigan 52%, Ohio State 42%, Penn State 6%
West odds: Wisconsin 34%, Iowa 31%, Minnesota 18%, Nebraska 15%, Northwestern 2%
Conference odds: Michigan 45%, Ohio State 34%, Wisconsin 7%, Iowa 5%, Penn State 4%, Minnesota 3%, Nebraska 2%
Biggest remaining games: Iowa at Northwestern (Nov. 4), Michigan at Penn State (Nov. 11), Northwestern at Wisconsin (Nov. 11), Nebraska at Wisconsin (Nov. 18), Iowa at Nebraska (Nov. 24), Wisconsin at Minnesota (Nov. 25), Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 25)
Granted, two of those -- Michigan-Penn State and Ohio State-Michigan -- are much bigger than the others. But with November's schedule heavy with intradivision play, the final West race could see quite a few more plot twists. Wisconsin and Iowa remain favorites, but Nebraska has won three in a row and has a nearly one-in-six chance of winning a shocking division title. Hell, Northwestern has won two of three and isn't dead yet!
ACC
Conference odds: Florida State 86%, Louisville 11%, Miami 2%, Virginia Tech 0.7%
Biggest remaining games: Virginia Tech at Louisville (Nov. 4), Miami at FSU (Nov. 11), Louisville at Miami (Nov. 18)
Florida State is already 6-0 in ACC play and is just about home free, and Louisville, at 7-1 overall, 4-1 in conference play and 24th in SP+, is the No. 2 favorite. But both teams have to play an absolute wild-card Miami team, and ... is that Virginia Tech? The Hokies have won three of four to go from utterly listless to 3-1 in ACC play. Their odds are still tiny, but they're not zero!
Sun Belt
East odds: Georgia Southern 49%, Georgia State 19%, Coastal Carolina 16%, Old Dominion 10%, Appalachian State 5%, Marshall 0.8%
West odds: Troy 58%, Louisiana 23%, South Alabama 17%, Texas State 1%, Arkansas State 0.9%
Conference odds: Troy 35%, Georgia Southern 20%, Louisiana 12%, South Alabama 10%, Georgia State 9%, Coastal Carolina 8%, Old Dominion 3%, Appalachian State 2%, Texas State 0.5%
Biggest remaining games: Almost all of them. Troy still has to play South Alabama (Nov. 2) and Louisiana (Nov. 18). Georgia Southern still has to play Texas State (Nov. 4), Marshall (Nov. 11), Old Dominion (Nov. 18) and Appalachian State (Nov. 25). Every week has a big one.
We're going to ignore another elephant: unbeaten James Madison's ineligibility, which both stinks and allows us to enjoy a massively uncertain title race. There wouldn't be eight teams with at least a 2% chance if JMU, 8-0 overall and 5-0 in the Sun Belt, were eligible to win the title.
That said, we actually get two stories to follow down the stretch: this potentially wacky race and JMU's quest for 12-0. The Dukes still have to play at Georgia State and Coastal Carolina, with home games against disappointing UConn and App State, to get the job done.
Mountain West
Conference odds: Air Force 71%, Boise State 14%, Fresno State 10%, UNLV 6%
Biggest remaining games: Boise State at Fresno State (Nov. 4), UNLV at Air Force (Nov. 18), Air Force at Boise State (Nov. 25)
Unbeaten Air Force has a 1½-game advantage over a trio of teams that are 3-1 in conference -- Fresno State, UNLV and Boise State. Fresno State's win over UNLV on Saturday night fully reinserted the Bulldogs into the hunt, and despite some dismal moments in nonconference play (and a Hail Mary loss to Colorado State), Boise is still involved thanks to Saturday's blowout of Wyoming. With games against the other two contenders, Air Force will have a say in who it plays a rematch against in the MWC championship game.
American
Conference odds: Tulane 56%, SMU 25%, UTSA 14%, Memphis 5%, Florida Atlantic 0.6%
Biggest remaining games: SMU at Memphis (Nov. 18), Tulane at FAU (Nov. 18), UTSA at Tulane (Nov. 25)
This one looks messy in the standings: Tulane, SMU and UTSA are all 4-0, and Memphis and FAU are 3-1. But varying schedule strengths -- and the fact that SP+ likes Tulane and SMU far more than the other teams -- make this seem a little cleaner on paper. Tulane has a clear road (at least until UTSA visits over Thanksgiving weekend), but SMU has to play at Memphis in Week 12.
Conference USA
Conference odds: Liberty 99%, New Mexico State 0.7%
Biggest remaining games: none
Liberty is far better than anyone else in this conference. That's pretty much everything you need to know here.
MAC
West odds: Toledo 94%, Northern Illinois 6%, Central Michigan 0.9%
East odds: Miami (Ohio) 84%, Buffalo 10%, Ohio 5%, Bowling Green 0.5%
Conference odds: Toledo 57%, Miami 35%, Buffalo 3%, Northern Illinois 2%, Ohio 2%
Biggest remaining games: Buffalo at Toledo (Oct. 31), NIU at CMU (Oct. 31), Ohio at Buffalo (Nov. 7), Toledo at Bowling Green (Nov. 14), Buffalo at Miami (Nov. 15), CMU at Ohio (Nov. 15), Toledo at CMU (Nov. 24)
Toledo flirted with serious danger against NIU, Ball State and Miami (Ohio) but survived and is just about home free in the West race. The East race looked like it could get messy when Miami lost starting quarterback Brett Gabbert to injury, but the Redhawks' comfortable win over Ohio all but ended that. They do probably still have to beat Buffalo in three weeks, though.
Most interesting bowl pushes
Titles matter the most, but simply getting to .500 and getting to make a bowl trip in December or January matters to a lot of teams, too, and for any number of reasons. Here's a quick run-through of some of the more interesting bowl eligibility odds at the moment.
New Mexico State (94%). With a clutch win over Louisiana Tech last Tuesday, the Aggies moved to 6-3 with their first four-game winning streak in 21 years. It is so hard to win at NMSU, and Jerry Kill is on the cusp of getting the Aggies to a bowl for the second time in his two years there. (They play 13 games, so they have to get to seven wins to assure eligibility.) They are projected favorites against Middle Tennessee State on Saturday.
Nebraska (91%). Yes, the Huskers' odds of winning the Big Ten West still aren't very good, but recent wins have put them on the doorstep of their first bowl since 2016 in Matt Rhule's first year. Gotta start somewhere.
Maryland (89%). The 5-3 Terrapins are still extremely likely to get to six wins, but ... these odds were 98% a week ago, and the loss to Northwestern was their third in a row. They will have to either pull a huge upset at home (against Michigan or Penn State) or win on the road (against Nebraska or Rutgers) to get there.
Washington State (83%). Another team on a slide. The Cougars were 4-0 after their big win over Oregon State. Now they're 4-4.
Boston College (81%). From 1-3 and 96th in SP+, the Eagles have won four in a row (granted, against less-than-amazing competition) and need just one more win.
Virginia Tech (67%). The Hokies have looked even better than BC in rising from 1-3 to 4-4 and from 80th to 59th in SP+. They could be favored in three of their last four.
USF (60%). It's been a roller coaster of a season, but if the 4-4 Bulls can beat two awful teams (Temple and Charlotte) at home, they'll clear the bowl bar after winning four combined games in the past three seasons.
UCF (43%). The Knights have been competitive, and SP+ says they've been pretty unlucky, but they've lost five in a row all the same to fall to 3-5. A late surge is possible but maybe not probable.
Georgia Tech (37%). Make up your mind, Georgia Tech! Are you good (recent wins over Miami and North Carolina)? Are you bad (losses to Bowling Green and Boston College by a combined 26 points)? Either way, the Yellow Jackets are 4-4.
Northwestern (34%). Saturday's upset of Maryland brought the Wildcats to 4-4. If they win two more games, interim head coach David Braun will deserve some Big Ten Coach of the Year votes.
Arkansas State (34%). The Red Wolves began the season with losses to Oklahoma and Memphis by a combined 110-3 and fell to 132nd in SP+. Now they're 107th, and they've won four of six. Finding two more wins will be tough, but this is closer than I expected them to get.
Colorado (22%). Saturday night's loss to UCLA was the fourth in five games for Deion Sanders' Buffaloes, and they'll potentially be multiscore underdogs in each of their last four.
Baylor (8%). The Bears won the Big 12 in 2021 and plummeted to 6-7 last fall. Now they're 3-5 -- 1-5 at home! -- after Saturday's 30-18 loss to Iowa State.
South Carolina (6%). The shine is wearing off for Shane Beamer. A season-saving November run for the 2-6 Gamecocks would be even more impressive than last year's surge.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week's Heisman top 10:
1. Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State (25 carries for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 21 receiving yards, against Cincinnati). Let's just say that if you're drawing Barry Sanders comparisons, even for a brief time, you deserve to be atop this list.
Ollie Gordon II joined @BarrySanders as the only two players in Oklahoma State history to rush for more than 250 yards in consecutive games.
— OSU Stats and Information (@OSUStatsInfo) October 29, 2023
Over the past three weeks, Gordon has rushed 83 times for 721 yards and 7 touchdowns and caught 10 passes for 137 yards and another score. That's an average of 286 combined yards per game! Gordon and an aggressive defense have completely transformed OSU's season since a dire mid-September blowout loss to South Alabama.
2. Jordan Travis, Florida State (22-for-35 for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 29 rushing yards and a touchdown, against Wake Forest). Travis has been slowly amassing solid stats, never really standing out in a given week but thriving. But this performance, which included 20-yard completions to seven different receivers and a lovely rushing score, stood out quite a bit.
3. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (23-for-30 for 287 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception, plus 90 rushing yards, against North Carolina)
4. Bo Nix, Oregon (24-for-31 for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown, against Utah)
5. TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State (24 carries for 162 yards and a touchdown, plus 45 receiving yards, against Wisconsin)
6. Cameron Whitfield, Louisiana (7 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles -- one returned by a teammate for a touchdown -- against South Alabama)
7. Drake Maye, North Carolina (17-for-25 for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 58 rushing yards and a touchdown, against Georgia Tech)
8. Preston Stone, SMU (15-for-20 for 371 yards and 3 touchdowns against Tulsa)
9. Carson Beck, Georgia (19-for-28 for 315 yards and 2 touchdowns against Florida)
10. Blake Watson, Memphis (17 carries for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 100 receiving yards, against North Texas)
Some worthy honorable mentions:
• Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss (24 carries for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 13 receiving yards, against Appalachian State)
• Frank Harris, UTSA (20-for-32 for 395 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception against East Carolina)
• Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (6 catches for 123 yards, 2 touchdowns and 6 first downs against Wisconsin)
• Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams, UMass (34 carries for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns against Army)
• Michael Penix Jr., Washington (21-for-38 for 369 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception against Stanford)
• Caleb Williams, USC (23-for-40 for 369 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus two rushing touchdowns, against Cal)
You know the bar for the top 10 is high when Penix and Williams can combine for 738 passing yards and six TDs and not make the list.
Through nine weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Jayden Daniels, LSU (44 points)
2. Michael Penix Jr., Washington (34 points)
3. Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State (27 points)
4. Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (25 points)
5. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (22 points)
6. Jordan Travis, Florida State (22 points)
7. Caleb Williams, USC (21 points)
8. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (16 points)
9. Drake Maye, North Carolina (12 points)
10. Bo Nix, Oregon (11 points)
Daniels maintained his 10-point lead despite LSU's bye this week, with Penix grabbing only honorable mention status. But watch out for Gordon -- the sophomore had zero points three weeks ago and has surged all the way into third!
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
Limiting this to 10 games this week was overwhelming. I could have used 10 spots on small-school games alone.
1. Kansas 38, No. 6 Oklahoma 33. It's impossible to overstate Lance Leipold's impact in Lawrence. Kansas hadn't bowled in 14 years, and he pulled it off in his second season. The Jayhawks hadn't taken down a top-10 opponent at home in nearly 40 years, and he did that in his third. The Jayhawks are 6-2, and they haven't had star quarterback Jalon Daniels for much of the season. What a story.
2. Georgia Tech 46, No. 17 North Carolina 42. Over the past five games, Georgia Tech has overachieved against SP+ projections by 28.6 points, underachieved by 29.7, overachieved by 26.9, underachieved by 24.4 and overachieved by 16.7. That is absolute, wonderful nonsense. So was the fourth quarter of this game, in which the Yellow Jackets scored 22 points and rushed for 246 yards (after rushing for 102 in the first three quarters).
3. Memphis 45, North Texas 42. This one almost slipped under the radar with all of the other track meets going on, but it featured 35 fourth-quarter points, 1,191 total yards and, after North Texas' Ja'Mori Maclin had caught two late touchdown passes to give UNT a sudden lead (after trailing by 21), a game-winning touchdown pass from Seth Henigan to Joe Scates with 12 seconds left.
Joseph Scates snags the jump ball and give Memphis a 45-42 lead over North Texas.
4. Miami 29, Virginia 26 (OT). Say this much for Miami: The Hurricanes aren't boring. Three of their past four games have gone down to the final play, the last two in overtime. Against a rapidly improving UVA squad, the Canes overcame four different deficits and won on a Mark Fletcher walk-off.
5. Division III: No. 7 Johns Hopkins 34, No. 16 Muhlenberg 28. In a battle of Centennial Conference unbeatens, JHU held an easy 28-14 lead with seven minutes left, watched Muhlenberg score twice in four minutes to tie the game, drove for the winning field goal ... had it blocked ... and then won anyway.
Will Leger wins the game for @JHU_Football in one of the most unbelievable endings I've witnessed - a blocked 31yd FG is picked up by him and run in from 20 yards out. Hopkins beats @DigInMules, 34-28. @D3FBHuddle #d3fb pic.twitter.com/eO6KVNaRVf
— Frank Rossi (@FrankRossi) October 28, 2023
6. Division II: Wingate 34, No. 7 Lenoir-Rhyne 30. Unbeaten Lenoir-Rhyne took the lead on two separate occasions in the fourth quarter and went up 30-27 with a short touchdown with 1:01 left. The lead lasted only 11 seconds. Brooks Bentley threaded the needle to Evan McCray, and McCray went 75 yards for the winning score.
🐻⬇️
— Wingate Bulldogs (@WU_Bulldogs) October 28, 2023
#OneDog pic.twitter.com/wNnDU5esmB
Lenoir-Rhyne almost immediately drove to the Bulldogs' 24 but couldn't find paydirt on the final play.
7. No. 24 USC 50, Cal 49. I'm a sucker for a good track meet, but it's awfully frustrating watching USC at this point, isn't it? Regardless: 1,024 yards, multiple double-digit leads for both teams, a late comeback and an even later failed 2-point conversion attempt will basically always make this list.
8. Fresno State 31, UNLV 24. UNLV led 17-7 at halftime, cruising toward a 4-0 start in Mountain West play, but Fresno State unleashed a 24-0 third quarter, then held on for dear life as UNLV cut the deficit to 31-24, dropped a wide-open touchdown pass in the final minute, then threw a game-clinching pick to the Bulldogs' Levelle Bailey. The MWC race is only getting started.
9. FCS: No. 8 Idaho 24, No. 2 Montana State 21. KIBBIE DOME MAGIC. I was starting to think that South Dakota State was the only FCS team capable of beating Montana State this year. But Gevani McCoy and Hayden Hatten connected for a 12-yard score with 2:47 left to give Idaho the lead, and after a Dallas Afalava sack pushed them backward, the Bobcats missed a last-minute 43-yard field goal. Game, Vandals.
10. New Mexico State 27, Louisiana Tech 24. UTEP's big comeback against Sam Houston State probably should have earned a spot here, but I just wanted another chance to rave about Jerry Kill's work at NMSU.
Oh, and a bonus Division II shoutout to Wayne State -- the Nebraska one, not the Michigan one -- which produced the wildest box score of the week against unbeaten No. 12 Augustana: Amid rampant snow, the Wildcats managed just three first downs (!) and 20 total yards (!!) and fumbled five times (!!!) ... and won 14-12 thanks to a 31-yard touchdown pass and a 64-yard pick-six. What a weekend.
The midweek playlist
The pre-Saturday action was fantastic in October, but ... IT'S MACTION TIME NOW. Clear the way for the midweek professionals. We've got another fun slate here, even if TCU-Texas Tech doesn't quite pack the importance we might have assumed it would in the preseason.
Tuesday: Buffalo at Toledo (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). The Rockets are 7-1 overall and easily the best team in the MAC, per SP+, but Buffalo has won three of four with a rapidly improving defense and isn't out of the East race just yet.
Wednesday: Kent State at Akron (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). This one's more "Ryan McGee Bottom 10" territory, but since suffering back-to-back heartbreakers against Indiana and Buffalo (and losing quarterback DJ Irons to an ACL tear), Akron has just about collapsed. This is the Zips' best remaining chance at a win.
Thursday: TCU at Texas Tech (7 p.m., FS1). They were a combined 21-7 last year. They're a combined 7-9 this year, and they've both had a bye week to stew over frustrating road losses. The loser of this one's going to be in awfully bad sorts heading into the stretch run.
Thursday: South Alabama at Troy (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). Saturday's loss to Cameron Whitfield and Louisiana dropped South Alabama's Sun Belt West title odds to 17%, per SP+, but the Jaguars could reenter the race with a road upset of West favorites Troy (58%). The Trojans are surging right now.