College football Week 9 buzz: Utah-Oregon, SEC, Michigan CFP drama, upset picks, more

Week 9 is the final week of games before the first College Football Playoff rankings are announced on Tuesday. Right now there are six undefeated Power 5 teams for four playoff slots. However, the SEC could be on the outside looking in.

According to the AllState Playoff Predictor, the Ohio State Buckeyes, Oklahoma Sooners, Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines have the highest percentage chance to reach the CFP. The Georgia Bulldogs are fifth in that metric and the Washington Huskies, who are also undefeated, are eighth behind two one-loss teams.

UGA gets the Florida Gators in Jacksonville this week. One of the one-loss teams in the CFP race, the Oregon Ducks, are in Salt Lake City to face the Utah Utes, who just upset the USC Trojans.

ESPN insiders Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg break down these matchups, look ahead to the CFP rankings, assess Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Heisman chances and answer other pressing questions.

Jump to a section:
Can Utah pull another upset?
Committee's view of Michigan | Expecting CFP drama?
The best from the Group of 5
Heisman hype for Marvin Harrison Jr.
| Assessing Billy Napier
Upset picks | Emptying the notebook

How does Kyle Whittingham keep doing this? Can he do it again against Oregon?

Dinich: One opposing Pac-12 coach told me this week that Whittingham has been there so long "you know what you're going to get," and that's a fundamentally sound team with an excellent defense, strong in the trenches, and a productive running game that opens up the play-action pass.

"There's a reason they won the league the past couple of years," the coach said. "When you're that good in the trenches, you're going to get a shot."

It has also helped that they're finally settled at quarterback with Bryson Barnes knowing now that Cam Rising is not playing this season.

"In the past they've always done a job with play-action pass, and this fits right into that mold," the coach said.

Rittenberg: The truly great coaches and programs work through challenges like Rising's lingering availability issue. Although Whittingham and others had expressed frustration about how long it dragged on, they pivoted to figuring out new strategies that pair well with their longtime strengths, such as line-of-scrimmage play and overall defense. The decision to have safety Sione Vaki play on offense hit big, as he racked up 217 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on only 14 touches against USC, after rushing for 158 yards and two scores against Cal the week before.

"He's a stud, man," a Pac-12 coordinator said. "They kind of found their niche on offense. They run the ball well, they do a lot of shifts and motions and try to stay on course, stay on schedule. They don't really make many mistakes, they don't turn the ball over."

After scoring only one offensive touchdown against UCLA and nearly being shut out at Oregon State, Utah recognized it couldn't keep waiting on Rising and needed to find another path. That's what makes Whittingham one of the best coaches of his generation. I loved how a Pac-12 coordinator described Utah: "Just a good, built program."

Dinich: Utah's identity is its defense, and the Utes "apply pressure when most people won't take the risk," Oregon coach Dan Lanning said. They also tackle well, and Lanning said his Ducks are going to have to win the one-on-ones. Offensively, Lanning pointed to Utah's running game, which is No. 32 in the FBS with 183.3 yards per game and No. 9 with 44 carries per game. "They're going to run the ball as much as anyone in our league," he said. "Their offensive coordinator, [Andy] Ludwig, gets really good at creating formations that you haven't seen before, and motions and shifts that are going to get you outnumbered at the point of attack. Then they'll take advantage of a shot off that."

Rittenberg: I'm fascinated to see who wins the line of scrimmage Saturday at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Utah must find a way to harass Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, who leads the FBS in completion percentage (78.4) and has been sacked just four times on 247 dropbacks. The Utes' defensive line lost Logan Fano to an ACL tear, but Connor O'Toole and Van Fillinger are getting healthier -- Fillinger had a sack and a forced fumble in the USC win -- to complement Jonah Elliss, who has emerged as one of the nation's top pass-rushers.

Elliss ranks No. 2 nationally in sacks with 10 and is tied for the FBS lead with 14 tackles for loss, recording at least one TFL in five straight games.

"He's really good," another Pac-12 coordinator said of Elliss. "He's not as big as I thought, but he's got a high motor and he plays hard. They're a stout defense. If they can keep it minimal possession and a close game, they could win. But they've got to score, because Oregon looks pretty good."

How will the College Football Playoff committee view Michigan?

Dinich: The CFP has stated that as long as the NCAA deems Michigan eligible to compete in the postseason, it can be ranked by the selection committee. There are unprecedented allegations against the undefeated Wolverines, though, for the group to consider.

Never before has a team in their discussions been accused of such egregious cheating, and former committee members weighed in anonymously on how this year's group should approach it.

"I think this is totally against everything that is fair and ethical about college football," one former committee member said.

A second said there will likely be some "private disgust and conversations away from the table about how this is a kick in the gut to sportsmanship and, especially among coaches, kind of sacrilegious."

"I don't think when they're at the table, though, I really don't believe that would be discussed until something comes down," the same person said.

A third said "it's almost worse" if a committee member penalizes Michigan because he or she thinks the school might have done something wrong without proof.

"That's not a metric, right?" the person said. "That could end up really adversely affecting the other rankings, and that's not right, either.

"I would say at this stage the committee should rank them as they deem appropriate," the same committee member said. "Keep an eye on their eligibility. But I think they'd have to rank the team based on what they see. There's plenty to question outside of the alleged cheating. They're doing everything they're supposed to against the schedule they're playing, but there's not a lot of meat on the bone as far as their opponents yet. So that may be more of a discussion point."

Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel is on the committee, and he will recuse himself from discussions that involve his program.

"He'll lean on the fact the NCAA says you're not supposed to discuss it," a fourth former committee member said. "It'll be awkward and uncomfortable."

Rittenberg: The timing of the allegations -- what we know now and what we will know in the next six weeks -- really fascinates me when it comes to Michigan. The actual investigation and infractions/penalty process is almost certainly going to go well into 2024. Michigan will have time to respond to any formal allegations, and also opportunities to appeal penalty decisions. The committee has to evaluate what it has seen, and that's an utterly dominant team with no weaknesses. A Big Ten coach recently told me that Michigan is the best team he has ever faced within the conference or at previous college coaching stops.

"There's 20 people that will be drafted off that team," the coach said.

The committee members are human and can't help but absorb the allegations Michigan faces. Some have been directly involved in games and understand the impact of those allegations. But they are also charged with compartmentalizing their view and focusing on the facts and metrics that are known. I would be surprised if Michigan's ranking is impacted significantly until we're closer to the end of the investigative process.

Could the SEC really be left out of the first top four of the College Football Playoff rankings?

Rittenberg: The only way would be for Georgia to lose to Florida this week, but as an SEC coach recently said, "I don't know what to make of our league, honestly." The distance between the SEC's best and everyone else certainly seems smaller this season, although someone still has to actually beat Georgia, which will be without tight end Brock Bowers, its best individual player, for most likely the rest of the regular season. Quarterback Carson Beck has been accurate (73.6 completion percentage, No. 6 nationally) and poised, although he has thrown interceptions in each of the past three games, and other than possession receiver Dominic Lovett, no Georgia player other than Bowers has more than 18 receptions. I don't see Alabama rising into the initial top four unless all hell breaks loose this week. While I could see LSU making the CFP with two losses because of its offense, the Tigers aren't going to be in the first top four.

Dinich: If Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, Washington and Oklahoma are all still undefeated heading into the Halloween ranking, anything is possible. Ohio State, while not as dominant as Michigan, could be No. 1 because of its wins against Notre Dame and Penn State. The Buckeyes are currently No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric. Georgia is No. 8. Florida State's win against LSU in Orlando is better than anything Georgia or Michigan has accomplished. So is Oklahoma's win against Texas, and Washington's win against Oregon. Plus, the committee will find out on Saturday how Georgia looks without Bowers. Georgia's performance will go a long way in answering this.

Rittenberg: No doubt on the Dawgs, who are still the team to beat until proved otherwise. But even if the initial CFP rankings aren't all about the "means more" league, the SEC should populate them plenty down the stretch, because of a back-loaded schedule. "It's kind of good for the SEC," a coach in the league told me. "These last four weeks, you've got Bama-LSU, you've got Ole Miss-A&M, you've got Georgia-Missouri, Georgia-Ole Miss. You've got some really marquee games." I wouldn't be shocked if the Alabama-LSU winner enters or gets close to the top four, especially if we see a loss or two among the non-SEC group (unlikely but possible). We all know about the committee's love affair with Alabama, and while the Tide don't look as dominant as in past years, wins over Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU would resonate.

Dinich: YES, we are entering the critical stretch of the season that truly separates pretenders from contenders, and while the ranking can and will change, the first is still important because it will give us clues as to who needs to do more work and who has some margin for error. And you're right about the Bama-LSU winner. Just because a two-loss team hasn't made the CFP doesn't mean it can't or won't happen, but LSU needs to worry about where FSU is because of that early-season head-to-head loss.

Who has been the best of the non-Power 5 teams?

Rittenberg: Although Air Force is no stranger to success -- the Falcons are the only non-Power 5 team to record 10 or more wins in each of the past three full seasons (2022, 2021 and 2019) -- its start to this season is notable. The Falcons are 7-0 for the first time since 1997 and 4-0 in Mountain West play for the first time ever. They lead the nation in rushing offense and rank second in total defense. Coach Troy Calhoun is quick to point out that Air Force has no four-star recruits, NIL program or transfers, and that its margin for error remains thin with better competition ahead. "I don't know if we've ever had a guy drafted [by the NFL] the first four rounds or five rounds," Calhoun told me. "So the sum, the cumulative part, has to be much greater than the individual parts. You have to have incredible bonds and connections. The quality of communication throughout your program has to be extremely strong. But frankly, there have been years where we felt like all the intangibles were really good, and we've been 5-7."

Air Force does boast some individual standouts, like linebacker Bo Richter, who has a tackle for loss in six of seven games and 11.5 total (5 sacks). Quarterback Zac Larrier averages five yards per run, and has 24 completions and five touchdown passes after zero pass attempts in his first three seasons at the academy. "His maturity, his spirit, his leadership qualities jump out," Calhoun said. "If he stays healthy, and that's always an if, our team can be competitive as we get into November."

Dinich: I'm going with Tulane because Air Force has only played one team that currently has a winning record (Wyoming). The Falcons' FBS nonconference opponents have been Sam Houston State (0-7), and Navy (3-4). The injury to quarterback Michael Pratt was a significant factor in Tulane's loss to Ole Miss, and the Green Wave was still right there against the No. 12 team in the country. Tulane has scored at least 31 points in every game with Pratt in the lineup, and 20 and 21 in the two games without him. They're strong and deep on both lines of scrimmage and playmakers at the skill positions on both sides -- even following the loss of NFL talent from last year's team.

What does Marvin Harrison Jr. need to do to win the Heisman?

Dinich: Play QB? Just kidding. If he's not in New York, the system is more flawed than I thought. As for actually winning it? Keep doing what he did against the Nittany Lions -- which was make life easy for rookie quarterback Kyle McCord and help the Buckeyes to another CFP appearance. Plus, he's going to need some uber-talented quarterbacks to fade from the national spotlight, both in terms of how well they are playing AND their teams also being in contention for the CFP. Otherwise, this is going to be a tight race with the likes of Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma), Jayden Daniels (LSU), Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), Jordan Travis (Florida State) and Bo Nix (Oregon).

Rittenberg: You listed so many great QB candidates, and Harrison only now feels like he's getting that Heisman bump. McCord and Ohio State coach Ryan Day stumped for Harrison immediately after the Penn State game, and there should be a good spotlight Saturday night at Wisconsin. Other than Indiana and Notre Dame, where he wasn't targeted much, Harrison has looked almost unstoppable, including against a very talented Penn State secondary. Harrison is averaging 143.2 receiving yards and 19.4 yards per catch in Ohio State's other five games. "He's very, very fast, and he also changes speeds very well, where it looks like he's gliding but fast, and then, all of a sudden, there's another gear," Wisconsin defensive coordinator Mike Tressel told me. "Subtle [route] stems can cause defensive backs to over-adjust and panic. He can change speeds while he's already fast, and then goes to get the ball."

Dinich: Some of it also boils down to making the most of the few opportunities he will have against marquee opponents -- namely in the regular season finale at Michigan and then possibly in the Big Ten championship game. If the Buckeyes don't beat Michigan (again) and win the division, it's going to be even more difficult to sway Heisman voters because most of the other contenders -- particularly in the Pac-12 -- will have more chances to impress against better competition.

Rittenberg: Great point. It's why Harrison's quiet performance against Notre Dame, a game where he sustained an ankle injury, will be tough to overcome. But a strong performance against Wisconsin could help his chances. Badgers cornerback Ricardo Hallman leads the Big Ten and is tied for fourth nationally in interceptions with four. Wisconsin has allowed only 137.5 pass yards per game in Big Ten play, tops in the league. "Ricardo has shown us the ballhawk nature that he had during fall camp and spring ball, he can carry that over and have that same instincts and aggression, while being disciplined," Tressel said. "He's shown with different opponents from week to week, he can still be a guy that makes plays on the ball." If Harrison performs against Hallman like he did against Penn State's Kalen King, his Heisman buzz will grow.

Can Billy Napier turn around Florida?

Rittenberg: His work with quarterback Graham Mertz -- and others, but especially Mertz -- is encouraging after a rocky start. Mertz came to Wisconsin as the most decorated QB recruit in team history, had an incredible debut game in 2020 but ultimately didn't pan out and finished his Badgers career as a 59.5% passer. This season, he's connecting on 76.2% of his passes -- good for third nationally behind Oregon's Bo Nix and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy -- and credits Napier for the production spike. "It's his offense," Mertz told me Monday. "He knows every part, he's seen every pitfall, he's schemed every play. His recall is crazy. He says, 'We ran this against South Carolina last year and we could have thrown to this guy. He's always one step ahead. He's playing chess with every single play. I owe a lot to him."

When Mertz was going through his walk-throughs this summer, Napier would literally walk by and identify when Florida last used a particular play Mertz was studying. That knowledge and belief in a system should help as the Gators get more of Napier's recruits in the door. But his ability to revive a quarterback like Mertz, who has only one year in Gainesville, bodes well. "I trust Coach Napier with everything," Mertz said. "I was at a great program [Wisconsin] with a lot of great leadership. The way he runs this, everything is so detailed. If you buy into the process with him, you'll get results."

Dinich: I'll let Napier answer this question: "We are going in the right direction," he texted me, "period!" A win against Georgia would clearly back up his confidence. Napier told me one of the X-factors will be if the Gators can create some takeaways and create a short field, along with out-gaining Georgia on the ground. I asked him what Georgia will look like without Bowers, and he said it depends on what group they play in -- 11 or 12, and will they use a sixth offensive lineman as a tight end?

What's your upset pick for Week 9?

Rittenberg: Kentucky (+3.5) over Tennessee. I hit on my last upset pick involving UK (home loss to Missouri), so let's flip it this time. Kentucky has had an extra week to prepare and heal up, especially along the offensive line, where guards Jager Burton and Dylan Ray could be available, along with linebacker Trevin Wallace and nose guard Keeshawn Silver. Tennessee, meanwhile, has to go back on the road after that awful second half in Tuscaloosa. The Wildcats will find a way at home.

Dinich: Arizona (+3.5) over Oregon State. This is assuming that Arizona doesn't give the Beavers 60 free yards in penalties. Arizona is a better tackling team, and the Wildcats' rushing defense will be the difference, along with their ability to get the stops on fourth downs and in the red zone.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week/what's the best thing you heard this week?

Dinich:

• One-loss Mizzou, which has a bye week to prepare for Georgia, has been fueled in large part by the persistence of its quarterback, Brady Cook, who is completing 69.7% of his passes this season. This is the same quarterback who was booed by his own fans earlier this season before playing one of the best games of his career in an upset of Kansas State.

"All he did was just keep focusing on his process, had a self belief in who he was, went to work and tried to get better," coach Eli Drinkwitz told ESPN this week, adding the coaching staff gave him specific areas he needed to improve on if he wanted to be the Tigers' starting quarterback. "One of them was ball accuracy, and the other was end of half, end of games drives. He's responded exceptionally well in those situations and really has been the difference in us becoming so explosive offensively."

• In spite of Baylor's disappointing 3-4 start -- which looks even worse considering Baylor ended the 2022 season on a four-game losing streak -- sources said this week that Dave Aranda's job is not in jeopardy this season.

Rittenberg:

• After a disappointing 2022 season, Oklahoma State seemed to reach an inflection point Sept. 16, when it fell, 33-7, at home to South Alabama, recording only 208 yards and 3.4 yards per play. The Cowboys were rotating quarterbacks and running backs but generating little success, a byproduct of little separation at those positions during the preseason. So coach Mike Gundy and his staff decided to pick a lane, both schematically and with personnel, and no longer deviate. The team has responded with three straight wins.

"We made a decision that we were going to live with it, we're going to stay with it, we're going to continue to do it from this point forward, and try to get better at it," Gundy told me. "And we played our cards right. We made good decisions, it worked, the players bought in and it's benefited us."

Gundy felt he owed playing time for players who had practiced well enough in the preseason, especially transfers. He's mindful of what it would look like if transfers didn't get opportunities at Oklahoma State. But after the third game, Gundy settled on Alan Bowman at quarterback, the 24-year-old on his third college stop (Michigan, Texas Tech). Bowman has delivered, completing 67.5% of his passes in each of the last two games after some early accuracy issues.

Ollie Gordon II has provided an even bigger lift since becoming Oklahoma State's featured running back. Gordon has 707 rushing yards in his last four games, including a career performance (282 yards, four touchdowns) last week at West Virginia. After three carries for 12 yards in the South Alabama loss, Gordon has rocketed to No. 5 nationally in rushing average (116.6 ypg).

"I'm not 100% surprised, but I'm 50% surprised, because those are pretty big jumps of what he's made over the last month," Gundy said. "Like we made a decision with Bowman, we made a decision that we felt like that he was going to be our most productive runner. So we need to confine our schemes and concepts to fit his ability. And we did, and now it looks like we should have done it earlier."

• Arizona is one of the nation's most improved teams this season, and while the offense continues to score behind two different quarterbacks, the jump can be directly traced to what's happening on defense. The Wildcats have risen from 124th in yards allowed last season to 35th, and from 125th in points allowed in 2022 to 39th. Arizona held Washington State scoreless for the final 55:01 in an Oct. 14 win, and allowed only one total touchdown in a three-week span when facing WSU's Cam Ward, Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and USC's Caleb Williams.

Defensive coordinator Johnny Nansen told me line depth is the biggest difference.

"We're playing 11 guys up front, and the most [against Washington State] was 19," Nansen said. "That's something I preached when I got the job here, trying to play more D-linemen and then other players, to keep these guys fresh. Finally this year, we've shown that. We're not beat up by the middle of the season."

Arizona's increases in size, physicality and overall depth have given Nansen more schematic flexibility. The Wildcats primarily operate in a 4-2-5 set but also will use the "dollar" package, which includes three down linemen, seven defensive backs and one linebacker. Nansen said defensive backs like Gunner Maldonado, Dalton Johnson and Treydan Stukes are playing "at an elite level."

"I wanted more speed on the field, adding seven DBs, because people are spreading you out, that's what college football is about," Nansen said. "Now it's part of our system. It's growing and it has a playbook of its own now. Our kids are comfortable with it. It's part of us."