College football Week 5 buzz: Unheralded unbeatens, Colorado bowl hopes, picks, more

Week 4 saw the Colorado Buffaloes meet reality in the form of the Oregon Ducks and 12 previously undefeated teams lose.

Things don't get any easier for Colorado in Week 5 with the USC Trojans visiting Boulder. The Trojans, however, are still stuck with some lingering questions about their defense.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who suffered their first loss last week, will try to bounce back quickly but have to face the undefeated Duke Blue Devils.

Can the Irish rally and keep their slim College Football Playoff chances alive? Are the Penn State Nittany Lions or Washington Huskies the most under-appreciated unbeaten team thus far? ESPN insiders Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg answer those questions and more.

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Unbeatens needing love
Most important games
Still worried about USC's D?
Win totals for Colorado
Upset picks | Empty the notebook

The undefeated team not getting enough love is ...?

Rittenberg: Penn State. The Nittany Lions rightfully will be judged by how they fare against Ohio State (Oct. 21, road) and Michigan (Nov. 11, home), but they have outscored their first four opponents 162-35 and boast a roster, or at least a defense, that might be the most talented in coach James Franklin's tenure. "They've got three first-round draft picks on defense, two defensive ends and a corner," said a coach who faced Penn State, referring to ends Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac, and cornerback Kalen King. "And the [Abdul] Carter kid, he'll be a first-round draft pick next year. They've got for sure, like no doubt, nine kids that are playing who will get drafted on defense. I think they're one of the better teams." Add in quarterback Drew Allar's promising start, and coaches expect PSU to stay in the Big Ten/CFP race.

Dinich: Penn State is certainly good enough to knock off Ohio State or Michigan, if not both, and create a three-way race in the Big Ten East. Washington, though, should be ranked higher -- and be getting serious top-four consideration. If the Huskies are still undefeated after they host Oregon on Oct. 14, they will be in mine. The Huskies have scored 199 points, their most through four games since 1971. It's not just the offense, though. Washington is No. 1 in the country in total efficiency, meaning all three phases of the game.

Rittenberg: Great point, HD, as Washington's improvement on defense often gets overlooked because of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and three players averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game. Coach Kalen DeBoer told me this week that the linebackers, in particular, have made strides. Edefuan Ulofoshio, who returned from injury to play the final five games last season, is off to an excellent start. Alphonzo Tuputala and Carson Bruener are experienced in the system, and USC transfer Ralen Goforth, who defensive coordinator William Inge really liked when I visited this spring, has helped as well. "It's better top-end, and it's much, much deeper," DeBoer said of his linebacker group. "They're the ones driving the defense." If the unit continues to ascend, look out, CFP.

Dinich: Speaking of the CFP, Notre Dame has entered must-win mode, starting at Duke, another underrated undefeated team. The Blue Devils have won all four of their games by at least 20 points -- a first for the program. Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison zeroed in on quarterback Riley Leonard after a first review of the game film. "He's going to be a high draft prospect," Morrison said. "His arm strength and his length, he's a talented dude. He's going to be one of the better QBs we face this year." Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman, though, lauded the Blue Devils' defense, which has allowed only 8.8 points per game -- Duke's fewest through its first four games of a season since 1971. "Defensively, they're really sound," Freeman said. "They don't give up big plays. They maximize their potential."

The most important game the rest of the regular season is ...

Dinich: Ohio State at Michigan, Nov. 25. By beating Notre Dame on Saturday, the Buckeyes have some wiggle room, but if they don't win the Big Ten, they face a higher burden of proof in the selection committee meeting room. Last year, in addition to beating Notre Dame and PSU, the Buckeyes also got the help they needed when USC lost in the Pac-12 title game. This year, with more Pac-12 contenders in the mix -- plus Texas and Florida State -- the Big Ten East runner-up could have a much more difficult time making a case to the committee.

Rittenberg: The CFP field is certainly more crowded, at least for now, and while Ohio State-Michigan jumps out, both teams must get through matchups against Penn State. The Nittany Lions visit Ohio State on Oct. 21, then host Michigan on Nov. 11, a day that also includes mega matchups such as USC-Oregon, Utah-Washington and Miami-Florida State. Within the Big Ten realm, though, coaches think Michigan is the team to beat, and Penn State must show it can match the muscle of Jim Harbaugh's best teams. "They're so big, they're gigantic, their defensive front, their offensive front," Rutgers coach Greg Schiano told me last week, before facing Michigan. "And they have good skill, so what else is there? Even their specialists, [Tommy Doman] kicks it out of the frickin' end zone every time."

Dinich: While the Big Ten race is certainly one of the most intriguing, the Pac-12 goes deeper in contenders, which is why Oregon's Oct. 14 trip to Washington will be critical to the CFP race. Both of those teams have top-four potential, but this is the start of the revealing part of the schedule for them, as they both will still have to face four ranked opponents in USC, Utah, Oregon State and Washington State. The winner earns a cushion down the stretch.

Rittenberg: I agree that Oregon-Washington has to be the most important Pac-12 game right now, and could end up being the most important regular-season game in the end. But whoever wins in Seattle and elsewhere in the Pac-12 could immediately put another game on the same pedestal, like Oregon at Utah (Oct. 28), Washington at USC (Nov. 4), Utah at Washington (Nov. 11) or USC at Oregon (Nov. 11). Don't count out Washington State, either. But it all starts with Ducks-Huskies. "That's going to be a damn war," an assistant on one of the teams said.

How concerned should we be with USC's defense?

Dinich: USC is No. 71 in the country in defensive efficiency, but here's what should be concerning: 34 total missed tackles. The Trojans are trending toward last year's problem, when they ranked No. 114 in the country with 157 missed tackles. As long as quarterback Caleb Williams continues to do his thing, and USC keeps winning, it won't necessarily keep them out of the playoff. It's a mirror image of Lincoln Riley's 2018 Oklahoma team, which had one of the nation's best offenses, but the worst defense in CFP history -- by far. They'll have a hard time winning a playoff game without defense (Alabama won that 2018 semifinal game, 45-34). The committee could absolutely choose a more complete team with the same record.

Rittenberg: Missed tackles and big plays allowed are still concerns for USC, but some context is important. USC has been an objectively better defense when games are still in doubt, as many of the unit's bad moments have occurred with backups on the field and the Trojans holding a comfortable lead. "We've given up 21 points in fourth quarters when we've averaged a winning margin of 40 points at that point, we've given up 150 yards at the tail end of the game against San Jose State," defensive coordinator Alex Grinch told me. "We can't attach meaning to that. It's inappropriate. One hundred and thirty yards at the tail end of a 50-point ballgame against Stanford with backups in the game. That's not an indictment against USC's defense. In all cases, you don't ignore it and you coach the behavior on those individual acts, but I look at it as mature as I possibly can."

Dinich: Here's the good news for Grinch: USC is third in the FBS with 16 sacks. That's bad news for Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, who has been sacked seven times in a game twice this season and 22 times overall -- the most taken by a Power 5 quarterback through the first four games in 20 seasons.

Rittenberg: Pressure and overall production certainly have been encouraging for USC, which has eight players with at least one sack and 11 with multiple tackles for loss. We all remember USC's knack for takeaways last season -- the Trojans tied for fifth nationally with 29 -- but, as Grinch noted, "A year ago, the identity was, trying to hang in there, get some takeaways, get some stops and let Caleb [Williams] win the ballgame." Grinch now sees a defense with more layers and strengths to it. He likened the Trojans to a pitcher in baseball. "The strikeouts are good, the walks are low, you're not having big innings, and then you look up at the end and your ERA's still 5," Grinch said. "You're like, 'How could that be?' Some of that is giving up some home runs. That's something we've got to get corrected." He's also aware of how talented Sanders can be in attacking downfield, and the need to keep the heat on.

How many wins will Colorado finish the regular season with?

Dinich: Six, which -- gasp -- is a bowl team. As everyone piles on Colorado following that pitiful performance against the Ducks, remember this program won one game a year ago. If this prediction holds true and the Buffs are bowl eligible, it would arguably be the biggest turnaround of the season. They already have three wins. I'll give 'em Arizona State, Stanford and Arizona. That's it.

Rittenberg: Six? Deion Sanders is keeping that receipt, HD. I'm going to be a bit bolder and go with seven wins, as the Buffs will win another game or two as an underdog. They need Travis Hunter back and to avoid other key injuries, especially along both lines, where numbers are limited. "Give Deion a year or two and he's going to have more depth," a Pac-12 coordinator said. "They're still in the early stages of rebuilding a program." Arizona State and Stanford should be wins for Colorado, and the Buffs will surprise someone, whether it's Oregon State (home) or UCLA (road).

What's your upset pick for Week 5?

Rittenberg: NC State (+3.5) over Louisville. I finally hit one, HD, and now I'm ready to upset the odds again (see what I did there?). The Friday slate has several intriguing home underdogs. NC State, which fell to Notre Dame at Carter-Finley Stadium in Week 2, has lost two or more home games just once since 2016 under coach Dave Doeren. Louisville's talented offense struggled against the only top-95 scoring defense (Indiana, No. 22) it has faced this season, and NC State is the type of defense that could fluster the Cardinals just enough.

Dinich: Utah (+3) over Oregon State. The only thing you're upsetting, Ritt, is my tolerance for dad jokes. The Utes could really use Cam Rising back for this one, but they've found ways to win with backup quarterback Nate Johnson -- mostly with a dependable running game and an outstanding defense. Utah will slow down the Beavers' running game and get after DJ Uiagalelei. And if Rising is back? Their passing game will be, too.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Dinich:

• One coach who has faced Kentucky said the Wildcats will use condensed formations, shifts and motions to try and create leverage for their run game against Florida. "Ultimately, Kentucky is best when they're able to stay on schedule, get to manageable third downs, and maintain a methodical approach," he said. "Their offense will shorten the game in this way, and put pressure on Florida to optimize each possession. This starts with and depends upon a strong run game." Quarterback Devin Leary's consistency is also key. "They will use formations into the boundary, and condensed sets to open up space for easy access throws to get him in rhythm," the opposing coach said. "They have also used screen passes to the RB and on the perimeter."

An assistant coach who faced Florida told me that in order to attack the Gators' D, "attack their coordinator," first-year coach Austin Armstrong. "He makes the call based off personnel and formation, the defense lines up very late," the assistant coach said. "Change the tempo, go fast, speed-break huddles. They have very good talent and play hard. I also think their depth at safety is lacking. Rotating three guys, (one being a true freshman who will be a really good player) and not having solidified starters."

• Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. gets the bulk of the attention in the Buckeyes' receiving corps, and deservedly so, but one source told me this week Emeka Egbuka "is better than I thought. Like, he's freaking really good. I thought he was good, but he's really good. He's in that elite category."

Rittenberg:

• Kansas' next phase in its program overhaul was to "physically control the game and impose what we want to do," offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki told me, and the Jayhawks are on their way. They bullied the Illinois defensive line, which has several NFL prospects, in an impressive Week 2 win, and now gear up for a Texas team with massive size (T'Vondre Sweat, Alfred Collins, Byron Murphy II) on its front. "It will be telling -- you're playing one of the best teams in the country," Kotelnicki said. "All spring and fall, it was, 'We've got to be more physical,' because we knew we had to play games like this. So we approached practice a little bit differently. It's paying off. I don't think you look at our film and say, 'This team's not playing physical.'" Among those who have embodied the theme is left tackle Dominick Puni, who could get on the NFL radar.

• Alabama responded nicely last week against Ole Miss, but the team's disjointed start to the season has some coaches talking about whether Nick Saban's constant staff churn is catching up to him. Saban has new coordinators -- Tommy Rees on offense, Kevin Steele on defense -- for the fourth time, and the third time since 2018. "It hadn't been an issue for Saban, but is it now becoming an issue," a coach who faced Alabama said. "Like, Tommy got that job. How many people got that phone call? How many people want to go run an offense where they tell you what offense to run?"

• West Virginia has been a September surprise at 3-1, cooling things off around coach Neal Brown for the time being. The Mountaineers are getting it done with defense. The starting D has allowed only two touchdowns in the past three games, an average of 255.3 yards and only 56 first-half yards to Texas Tech last week. Brown really likes his defensive front, including lineman Sean Martin, who will be on the NFL radar at 6-foot-5 and 290 pounds. "We've got a bunch of guys we've been rolling," Brown told me. "We go nine or 10 deep there." Cornerback Beanie Bishop Jr., a transfer from Minnesota, has impacted the defense right away with two interceptions and five pass breakups. "He's played really well the last two weeks," Brown said.