SOUTH BEND, Ind. -- As the final minute ticked away at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday night with the No. 9 Fighting Irish leading 14-10, fans begun to push their way forward, preparing to storm the field in celebration of an upset of No. 6 Ohio State. Beefy security guards stood on high alert.
Then, with one second left, Ohio State scored the winning touchdown. Even Notre Dame's videoboard appeared at a loss for words, as it paused on a screen saver of the two teams' logos. Irish fans in the tunnel stood stunned. A security guard tossed a belligerent Ohio State fan off the field. The officiating crew began to review the touchdown. The giant screen sparked to life again with the replay. The crowd roared. The bare-chested students were ready to pounce.
The call stood.
In dramatic, improbable fashion, Ohio State's College Football Playoff hopes took an important leap forward, while the Irish are now in must-win mode to even have a chance. It was a wild finish to a critical Saturday that revealed several clues about the playoff pecking order -- from the Big Ten to the ACC to the SEC to the Pac-12.
Ohio State has been here before
Ohio State converts at the goal line with one second remaining to earn a huge victory over Notre Dame.
This is exactly how Ohio State earned a spot in the top four last season without beating Michigan or winning the Big Ten. The selection committee rewarded the Buckeyes last fall for their season-opening win against the Irish, which continued to carry weight through Selection Day because Notre Dame finished as a top-25 team.
It wasn't only the Notre Dame win last fall; Ohio State finished in the top four also because of its win against Penn State and because USC lost in the Pac-12 championship game. There's no question, though, that the Buckeyes' victory against the Irish was a major factor, and it could be again.
The ideal scenario for Ohio State, of course, is to beat Michigan and win the Big Ten. But if the Buckeyes follow last year's blueprint and beat Penn State and finish as a one-loss team, a top-four spot isn't entirely out of the question. Saturday's win certainly helps boost the résumé, but the Buckeyes can't assume anything -- especially with new contenders in the picture like Texas and Florida State.
The loss stings for coach Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame. As an independent, Notre Dame faces a higher burden of proof in the selection committee meeting room because it doesn't have a conference title to boost its résumé. The Irish would also lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Ohio State, if they finish with similar records and no conference title.
Notre Dame has to win out, but it also has a schedule tailor-made to impress the selection committee, starting this Saturday against surging Duke. The Irish also have to face USC and travel to Clemson. Even if they run the table, though, they still have to hope their résumé is better than that of two Power 5 conference champions. And the ACC might have one in the mix ...
Florida State is the ACC's top playoff contender
Florida State moves to 4-0 on the season as it gets help from a Clemson missed field goal and clutch play in overtime.
Entering this season, nobody had a better chance in the month of September to impress the selection committee than Florida State, and the Seminoles have officially taken advantage of every opportunity. With statement wins against LSU and now Clemson -- both outside of the comfortable confines of Doak Campbell Stadium -- the Seminoles enter October undefeated and have positioned themselves for a run at the top four.
The committee appreciates the difficulty of road wins, especially at a place like Death Valley, where the Tigers had only lost twice in a decade. So yes, while Florida State's triumph has lost some luster because Clemson has fallen out of the Associated Press Top 25, it will continue to resonate on Selection Day as long as the Tigers finish above .500, which they should.
Florida State has other potential top-25 opponents remaining that could boost its playoff résumé, including Duke, Miami and Florida. Because the Seminoles owned the month of September, they have some margin for error, and they might need it in the regular-season finale at The Swamp. As long as FSU can finish undefeated or as a one-loss ACC champion, the Noles should garner CFP consideration.
Their biggest competition remaining might be the résumés of other Power 5 conference champions, though it certainly helped their own strength of schedule that LSU eked out a win against Arkansas on Saturday night.
The Tide isn't washed up yet
Alabama's home win against Ole Miss keeps the Crimson Tide in the shadows of the playoff conversation as they enter back-to-back SEC West trips to Mississippi State and Texas A&M. Quarterback Jalen Milroe might have had the most accurate description of Alabama on Saturday when he called his team a "work in progress."
Alabama didn't fall out of the top-four picture because it lost to Texas; the Tide slipped into the background because it hasn't looked like one of the nation's best teams this month. The committee pays attention to the ebb and flow of games -- not just the final score -- and Alabama trailed Ole Miss 7-6 at the half and was again plagued by some penalties and what coach Nick Saban called "my-bad plays."
The defense was a highlight, though, and Alabama showed its resiliency in the second half. In addition to helping itself, Alabama's win also continued to help Texas. The Longhorns' Week 2 win in Tuscaloosa remains one of the best nonconference wins of the season -- though Ohio State might have just topped it.
The Pac-12 race will be wild
Color-o-no.
Oregon was relentless during its 42-6 win over visiting Colorado, seemingly making a statement that building a program capable of contending for titles takes years -- not months. While Colorado's story captured the nation's attention, Oregon doused reality on the Pac-12 race. The Ducks not only avoided an upset, they reiterated that coach Dan Lanning has a potential playoff contender led by a Heisman Trophy hopeful at quarterback in Bo Nix.
Oregon enters the final week of September undefeated but with its biggest test in front of it. The Ducks, who next face Stanford, should be undefeated heading into the Oct. 14 trip to Washington, which starts the heart of a stretch that will determine how seriously to take them in the playoff race. They will have three straight games against what should be ranked opponents in Washington, Washington State and Utah.
Meanwhile, Utah keeps winning without starting quarterback Cam Rising, who has yet to play this season, and Saturday's victory against UCLA keeps the Utes in contention to win their third straight Pac-12 title. Their opponent in last season's Pac-12 championship game, USC, is still unbeaten after outlasting Arizona State on Saturday night. The Trojans next get to test themselves at Colorado.
And the best of the bunch might be Washington, which continues to throttle opponents. After Saturday's runaway victory over Cal, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. became just the second FBS player in the past 25 years with at least 300 passing yards, three touchdowns and a 70% completion percentage in each of his team's first four games. Winning as convincingly as they have will almost certainly turn heads on the committee, but remaining unbeaten will be a tough trick for anyone out West.