There's a natural inclination to always look ahead in college football, especially at a time when the movement of players and coaches is fast and furious.
The 2022 season wrapped up Monday night, as Georgia thumped TCU in the College Football Playoff National Championship. So what's on tap for 2023?
Georgia will pursue a third straight championship. USC quarterback Caleb Williams will try to become the first back-to-back Heisman Trophy winner since Ohio State's Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. Perhaps there's another TCU, a team pegged for the bottom half of its league that can defy the odds. Realignment is here with four teams entering the Big 12. There's an interesting group of first-year coaches, headlined by Deion Sanders at Colorado.
There certainly will be risers and fallers around the country entering the final season before an expanded CFP.
I spent last week talking to coaches and other insiders around the sport, especially during the recent American Football Coaches Association convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, to gather predictions for the 2023 season. Here's a look at seven things coaches are expecting next fall.
Florida State will push Clemson in the ACC
Clemson won the ACC in 2022, its seventh conference title in eight years under coach Dabo Swinney. But the program seems to be at a crossroads after failing to make the CFP for the second straight year and not resembling the elite offenses that propelled the Tigers to national titles in 2016 and 2018.
Florida State hasn't won the ACC since 2014, which was also the last season it beat Clemson. But coaches think the Seminoles are poised for a true breakthrough in coach Mike Norvell's fourth season.
FSU comes off of its first 10-win season since 2016 and returns several key players, including quarterback Jordan Travis, running back Trey Benson and defensive end Jared Verse, a projected first-round NFL draft pick who surprised some by announcing he would return to the Seminoles. FSU added Verse, Benson, wide receiver Johnny Wilson and others in the portal last winter, and has been very aggressive there again.
"They're getting a s---load of recruits," a Power 5 coach said. "They've got dudes; they're getting better."
On Oct. 15, FSU rallied in the fourth quarter against Clemson before losing 34-28. The Seminoles then won their final six games. Although Clemson still could enter the fall as the ACC favorite, coaches see the Seminoles gaining ground. Some even expect a flip to occur this fall.
"The front-runners are Florida State," an ACC defensive assistant said, noting Travis' return and other playmakers. "They've got all the pieces."
Added an ACC coordinator: "There's one team with significantly more talent, Clemson, and then Florida State did a tremendous job being the next most talented team. FSU did theirs through the transfer portal. Those two are really the toughest teams [in the ACC]. They're killing it."
Big 12 will be wide open and challenging for new members
The Big 12 was wonderfully unpredictable in 2022, a theme coaches expect to continue this coming season. National runner-up TCU and league champion Kansas State ultimately separated from the others -- every other Big 12 team lost five or more games -- but both will lose key players, especially TCU.
Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan, the Heisman Trophy runner-up, will depart alongside wide receiver Quentin Johnston, cornerback Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, running back Kendre Miller and other standouts.
"You've got a first-round receiver, a second-round receiver, a third-round receiver, probably a third- or fourth-round quarterback," a Big 12 defensive coordinator said. "You've got a third- or fourth-round running back and three offensive linemen. All those guys have been starting for three years. So if they can do that again, I'd be really impressed.
"You're going to have to go get some guys to be able to even come close to capturing that."
Kansas State returns more than the Frogs, and it could enter the season as the favorite to repeat as Big 12 champion. But the Wildcats will miss do-everything back Deuce Vaughn and top wide receiver Malik Knowles.
"Kansas State's not going to be the same, no more Deuce," a Big 12 defensive assistant said. "It's going to be a big deal. Deuce was the whole thing."
Coaches thought Texas was the Big 12's most talented overall team in 2022, and some maintain that belief for 2023. But the Longhorns are just 13-12 under Steve Sarkisian, lose star running back Bijan Robinson and others, and have questions at quarterback with returning starter Quinn Ewers set to compete with incoming freshman Arch Manning. Still, Texas' recruiting under Sarkisian has the roster set up to challenge for the league title.
"They'll have the quarterback controversy," a Big 12 defensive assistant said. "It will be a little bit crazy there."
Coaches expect Oklahoma to improve in Year 2 under Brent Venables (more later). A veteran-laden Texas Tech team also could contend under second-year coach Joey McGuire. Kansas returns quarterback Jalon Daniels from a breakthrough bowl team.
The Big 12 will add new members BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston this fall. Most Power 5 transitions are rocky, and Big 12 coaches expect some bumps for all four teams. BYU is seen as the program most equipped to handle a full-blown Power 5 schedule, followed closely by UCF. Cincinnati is going through a coaching transition and significant roster turnover, two years removed from a historic CFP run.
"I watched those teams from afar," a Big 12 assistant said. "I've seen some points where they have really good success and you're impressed with them, and I've seen other points where you're like, 'You sure you want to do this?' From a salary standpoint, Houston made financial commitments to their staff that brought them to a level higher than some of the teams in the Big 12."
We may see a very different Wisconsin offense
Beginning Oct. 2, Wisconsin made a series of atypical decisions that will shape the program's trajectory for the next few seasons. The team fired steady and successful coach Paul Chryst, chose not to promote expected successor Jim Leonhard, swung big and hit with new coach Luke Fickell, mutually decided that Leonhard would not remain on staff, and hired an offensive coordinator in Phil Longo whose scheme is unlike anything UW has ever run.
All the changes could result in Wisconsin achieving at a higher level than it ever has, especially with the expanded CFP arriving in 2024. The Badgers have been very active in the portal, adding THREE quarterbacks -- SMU's Tanner Mordecai, Oklahoma's Nick Evers and Mississippi State's Braedyn Locke -- and other key players such as Temple pass-rusher Darian Varner and center Jake Renfro, who played for Fickell at Cincinnati.
But coaches also see some risks in diverting from the continuity that has made Wisconsin one of the nation's most consistent programs for 30 years.
"They've kind of always looked the same, and that's going back to Barry Alvarez and then Bret [Bielema]," a Big Ten coordinator said. "When [Gary] Andersen was there, they still looked the same, but they got away from their market in terms of recruiting. Luke Fickell is not part of that Alvarez-Bielema thread, but I do think he's a good coach, and I do think he'll recruit well there. It's just a matter of what that product looks like, and how that meshes with the history of Wisconsin."
Despite Leonhard's departure, the defensive structure shouldn't change much under Fickell and coordinator Mike Tressel, who coached in the Big Ten from 2007 to 2019 at Michigan State. But coaches are fascinated to see the offense under Longo, who ran quarterback-centric systems at North Carolina, Ole Miss and other stops. Fickell also brought over Gino Guidugli, his offensive playcaller at Cincinnati, but as passing game coordinator/tight ends coach.
"It's going to be interesting, that's for sure," a Big Ten coach said. "Is it going to be [Longo's] offense or Gino's?"
Oklahoma's Year 2 breakthrough under Venables not a guarantee
For the first time since 1999, Oklahoma is coming off of a losing season. The good news: The Sooners would go on to win a national title in 2000. OU seems much farther away from the top this time, although coach Brent Venables and his staff are making roster upgrades through recruiting and the portal.
A productive end to the recruiting cycle, which included the second flip in 24 hours for safety Peyton Bowen, allowed Oklahoma to secure ESPN's No. 4 class. The Sooners also have stood out in the transfer portal, adding several notable names, especially for a defense that struggled in Venables' first season. OU picked up Indiana edge rusher Dasan McCullough, a young player Big Ten coaches raved about, as well as Oklahoma State end Trace Ford, Texas Tech safety Reggie Pearson Jr. and others.
"Based on where they fell to this past year, they're probably thinking that they've got to make a quick fix," a Power 5 coordinator said.
The Sooners return quarterback Dillon Gabriel but must find more playmakers at wide receiver and tight end after the NFL departures of Marvin Mims and Brayden Willis.
"They aren't far from an SEC team on offense," said a defensive coordinator who faced Oklahoma. "To say that team's 6-6, I don't know why. If you've got a quarterback and guys that can catch the football, you're going to be able to score points."
Deion Sanders will upgrade Colorado but growth could be gradual
Every coach I talked with about Sanders' move to Colorado -- including some who had worked at CU before -- like the hire or at least elements. "Prime will do well," was a common refrain in Charlotte. Colorado had plummeted to the bottom of the Power 5 and Sanders will immediately provide a bump in attention and overall appeal. He's also receiving more administrative support than previous Colorado coaches.
"Deion's going to inspire those kids to play," a Pac-12 personnel chief said. "That's two wins right there."
As expected, Sanders has hit the transfer portal hard to reshape the Buffaloes' roster. But some coaches are surprised by how many players he brought over from Jackson State (seven so far) of the FCS. Assistants who faced Jackson State said standouts such as quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, who played both offense and defense, will immediately help at Colorado. Shedeur is seen as a "Air Raid-type QB" who will fit in well under new coordinator Sean Lewis, the former Kent State coach. But coaches think some of the other Jackson State imports could struggle with the jump up to the FBS level.
The Pac-12 projects as one of the nation's deepest conferences, and it returns the best collection of quarterbacks, led by Caleb Williams but also featuring Washington's Michael Penix Jr., Utah's Cam Rising and Oregon's Bo Nix. Coaches think bowl eligibility would be an excellent first season for Sanders.
The other area coaches are watching is whether Colorado will make any inroads in California, which long has been a priority recruiting area for the program. Sanders did not hire a California-based recruiter on his staff, and Pac-12 coaches who recruit the state haven't yet seen Colorado establish much of a presence. Colorado has a commitment from 2024 recruit Daijon Calimon, a wide receiver out of Lawndale, California.
Georgia widens gap with SEC competition
Georgia has established itself as the nation's preeminent program under coach Kirby Smart. But who can catch the Bulldogs in the SEC? Tennessee took a significant jump in Year 2 under coach Josh Heupel, but the Vols lose quarterback Hendon Hooker, wide receiver Jalin Hyatt and other standouts from a dynamic offense.
"They're legit," an SEC coordinator said. "Their defense is more talented than people give them credit for. And that offense, it's a beast. I don't know if they'll be as talented because the Hyatt kid was super special and Hendon Hooker was 25 years old. He should have been a Heisman finalist. What you saw they did in the bowl game with a lot of their backups, they kicked Clemson's ass."
Quarterback Joe Milton has waited his turn behind Hooker and performed well in the Orange Bowl win over Clemson. But Tennessee also brings in Nico Iamaleava, ESPN's No. 32 overall recruit in the 2023 class.
"It will be interesting to see what Tennessee does a year later: Are they better or worse?" an SEC assistant said. "[Heupel] has always been pretty consistent running that scheme. Is it Milton or is it the guy that everybody knows you're paying $2 million a year? Does that create problems in the locker room?"
South Carolina has momentum under coach Shane Beamer and returns quarterback Spencer Rattler for a second season. But the Gamecocks must visit both Georgia and Tennessee and lose standout cornerback Cam Smith, as well as several other contributors to the portal. Coaches say they think Florida will need at least another year to position itself to contend in the SEC East, especially with questions at quarterback and no bona fide star on defense.
"They're just a lot further off from being good," an SEC assistant said of the Gators. "Way further away from Georgia."
Georgia's biggest challenges should come from the West Division, and Alabama and LSU. Although the Tide lose two players who many coaches think are the nation's best -- quarterback Bryce Young and edge rusher Will Anderson -- the combination of returning players and recruits/transfers set up a potentially better overall team in 2023. LSU returns quarterback Jayden Daniels, a nice nucleus from a team that surprisingly won the West Division in coach Brian Kelly's first season, and several notable transfers.
"They're getting pretty much everybody back," an SEC assistant said. "Their receiving corps is ultra talented."
Coaches are perhaps most intrigued with Texas A&M, given the Aggies' combination of talent and chaos. SEC offensive coaches who faced Texas A&M said the defensive front could stack up with Georgia and the league's best. They thought freshman quarterback Conner Weigman, who emerged late last season, is the team's best option to lead the offense. But the Aggies' portal departures could be significant. Coach Jimbo Fisher's hire of offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has complete boom-or-bust potential. Like many, coaches are fascinated to see how their two personalities/egos will coexist.
"Every day is going to be interesting on the practice field," an SEC coordinator said. "They'll probably get into some fistfights."
Ohio State has lost its grip on Big Ten
For nearly two decades, Ohio State was the boss of the Big Ten. From 2002 until 2020, the Buckeyes won or shared 11 conference titles. They remain the only Big Ten team to win a national title (2002, 2014) or play for one (2006, 2007, 2020) this millenium. Most coaches still rank Ohio State as the league's most talented team, some by a wide margin.
But the Buckeyes have dropped consecutive games to Michigan, which went on to win the Big Ten the past two seasons. Michigan returns arguably the nation's best overall offensive backfield in quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running back Blake Corum, a Heisman Trophy candidate before suffering a knee injury Nov. 19. Although the future of Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh is worth monitoring, some Big Ten coaches now see Michigan in a different light.
"They're the team in this league now," an assistant said.
"Michigan's going to find another good coach if Harbaugh leaves, and they're still going to be good," a Big Ten coordinator said.
Penn State also has pegged 2023 for a possible breakthrough, as it returns many key players from an 11-2 team that won the Rose Bowl, and could have an upgrade at quarterback with Drew Allar, ESPN's No. 51 overall recruit last year.
Ohio State, meanwhile, returns its standard star power, including national awards candidate Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver. But coaches cited concerns on both sides of the ball: a running back group that couldn't stay healthy and hamstrung the offense at times; an offensive line that struggled at times against Michigan and loses star tackle Paris Johnson Jr. and others; a defensive front that has fallen off; and a secondary that got beat too often in the biggest games.
The Buckeyes are also replacing C.J. Stroud, a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist who nearly lifted the team past Georgia in the CFP semifinals.
"Ohio State will be interesting because who's going to be the quarterback," a Big Ten assistant said. "Here's what's amazing: Iowa's defense has good players -- they're just not heralded. I love Cooper DeJean, Riley Moss, but there's no reason that Ohio State D-line and secondary shouldn't be as good or better."
Coach Ryan Day told ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit that he could soon relinquish offensive playcalling. There are rumblings about some staff changes as well. An interesting offseason awaits Ohio State.