LOS ANGELES -- The offseason has long been a myth in college athletics, with drama from January to July annually transcending the football field and often trumping it in importance.
As the college football industry gathered in Los Angeles this week for meetings and junkets surrounding the College Football Playoff, the two buzziest stories immediately hovering over the sport were percolating in the Big Ten.
The future of the Big Ten commissioner job and the Michigan coaching position loomed as the most frequent topics in the bustling lobbies, swanky VIP rooms and gossip-filled sidelines.
Both jobs have thrust themselves to the forefront after the current holders of those jobs -- commissioner Kevin Warren and coach Jim Harbaugh -- recently delivered public statements of non-commitment.
So what's the latest on each?
The future of Warren is close to being decided, as sources tell ESPN he will officially be named president and CEO of the Chicago Bears shortly.
On a call with Big Ten athletic directors on Wednesday, Warren was evasive when asked directly about the Bears job by Illinois AD Josh Whitman, according to sources. After the call with Warren, a group of athletic directors discussed life after Warren, as Big Ten leaders are already making plans around his departure.
Few topics elicited more snickers in Los Angeles than Warren's word-salad statement that followed an ESPN report identifying him as a strong candidate and finalist for the Bears' job.
It announced that Warren "regularly receives unique opportunities and requests for his expertise from leaders across a variety of industries ranging from professional sports ownership groups to private equity firms." It did not say he's staying with the Big Ten or deny he's a top candidate at the Bears. And Warren has spent the past 12 days awkwardly avoiding the topic.
The Big Ten made no tangible push to keep Warren since the news originally broke, as Warren's approval rating with conference athletic directors remains low and the churn of Big Ten presidents and chancellors -- a vast majority of the 14 have changed over since his hire in 2019 -- have left him without a strong bloc of people invested in his success.
Some of the goodwill Warren had accumulated by leading the Big Ten through the additions of USC and UCLA and the record-setting television deal has been squandered. His pushes to keep expanding went against the wishes of the league's most powerful universities and stakeholders, and his public statements about expansion were viewed internally as clumsy and tone-deaf.
Warren has just 18 months left on his contract, and there has been no public discussion of any type of extension.
It will be an interesting moment for the Big Ten, which has no veteran presidents with significant gravitas in college athletics. The league's current leadership chair, Robert J. Jones of Illinois, declined comment when reached recently by ESPN. The league's most experienced college athletics official is new Northwestern president Michael Schill, but he's yet to be on campus for a full year.
Perhaps the biggest buzz in the industry in Los Angeles this week was figuring out Big Ten commissioner candidates. Commissioner jobs have become tougher to handicap. No one could have predicted the Big 12 hiring Brett Yormark from Roc Nation or the Pac-12 hiring George Kliavkoff from MGM, as they likely wouldn't have been on a candidate list of 100 names before getting hired.
What to expect from the Big Ten? They need a consensus builder with experience on campus and someone willing to engage and build better relationships with the athletic directors. With the record-setting television contract opening up the cash flow and expansion tabled for a few years because of ambivalence and lack of profitable options, the next commissioner would need to dial in on governance and helping craft issues related to the future of the NCAA. These weren't specialties of Warren, who grew tired of the cumbersome nature of college sports, which has clunky and nonlinear models compared to the NFL.
So who could it be? For the interim commissioner job, perhaps an internal candidate like deputy commissioner Diana Sabau, who has Big Ten campus experience? Or perhaps general counsel Anil Gollahalli, who helped guide Oklahoma to the SEC while the general counsel at OU? Could it be Kerry Kenny, the league's top television liaison? Does Jim Delany channel his inner Barry Alvarez and execute the commissioner equivalent of coaching in a bowl game?
Who would be the long-term answer? That's a tricky one to project, considering this president group is so new and green. And predicting presidential behavior has long proved foolish.
Could ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, who finished as the runner-up last time, return to the Big Ten? He'll be the speculative favorite within college athletics.
Could it be an outside television executive? Could it be a campus athletic director? The safe bet now is someone familiar over foreign, as the Big Ten went outside to uneven results and the most immediate challenges feel more inherent to those familiar with college sports. But with a president and chancellor group so green, it's nearly impossible to predict. The caliber of interest will be significant.
As for the Michigan football job, there's an increased chance that it could end up opening. Harbaugh's statement of non-commitment to the Wolverines -- "no man knows the future" -- is a window into his mindset.
Sources told ESPN that Harbaugh has been engaged with the Broncos, who are underway on a process that should take more than a week to unfold.
This strong interest from Denver comes at a time when Michigan can't act on any instincts to secure Harbaugh for an NFL-caliber salary. Harbaugh made more than $7 million this year, a right-sizing of a deal after they cut his salary when Michigan went 2-4 during the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season. That's $2.5 million less than the scuffling Mel Tucker, who didn't make a bowl after his contract reset the market.
But it's a tricky crossroads for Harbaugh if he wants to test the top of the college football market. Michigan is unlikely to issue him a new contract until there's some clarity in the current NCAA case, according to sources. That could take weeks, at a minimum, if the sides could all work toward a negotiated resolution.
Considering that the negotiated resolution could include a Level I violation for Harbaugh, who might end up being alleged with obstructing an investigation, that's not likely to play out quickly. If it's indeed a Level I violation, Harbaugh could face a multiple-game suspension. There's more certainty available in the NFL, and Denver's interest appears sincere and significant.
And that would open up one of the top jobs in college football, and clearly the best of the 2022-23 cycle we're toward the end of. Who would replace Harbaugh? Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, Wake Forest's Dave Clawson and Kansas State's Chris Klieman make the most sense. Could Matt Campbell overcome consecutive underwhelming years? Could an outside-the-box candidate like Kyle Whittingham, Dave Aranda or Kalen DeBoer make sense? Offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald all have earned looks, too.
The Warren process will likely play out faster than Harbaugh's. But the din will continue as the potential opening of two of the Big Ten's marquee positions loom.