LOS ANGELES -- TCU did not have a single player drafted in 2022. The Horned Frogs entered the season as 200-1 longshots to win the national title and were picked seventh in the preseason Big 12 poll. Just one season ago, they went 5-7 and fired the coach, Gary Patterson, who has a statue outside Amon G. Carter Stadium.
These aren't exactly the trappings of sudden championship contention. But on Monday against Georgia (7:30 p.m., ESPN), TCU is 60 minutes from becoming the most unlikely national champion in college football's modern era. In a sport long designed to favor bluebloods and big budgets, TCU's championship would cast it as a new-age Hoosiers for college football. Well, if Hickory High could use the transfer portal.
How can TCU get here? Typically for big matchups, we break down both teams and ask anonymous coaches who've faced them to assess the game. But with the Horned Frogs a 12.5-point underdog, we approached the exercise through the prism of how TCU can overcome significant odds and pull another seismic upset.
TCU last won a national title in 1938 and has played conference roulette -- Southwest Conference to the WAC to Conference USA to the Mountain West -- before finally landing in the Big 12. (It even briefly joined the Big East but never competed.)
Here are six things TCU needs to do -- and conversely what Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs need to avoid -- for the Horned Frogs to cap this remarkable season with a timeless upset.
1. Throw it to No. 1, over and over
In consecutive weeks, Georgia will face the projected top receiver in the 2024 NFL draft (Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr.) and 2023 draft (TCU's Quentin Johnston).
For TCU to pull the upset, Johnston has to be every bit as dynamic as Harrison was before his injury sidelined him for the fourth quarter. What's interesting is that they are drastically different players, with Harrison a more nuanced route runner and Johnston more of a big-play threat.
If Johnston is matched up with UGA's top corner, Kelee Ringo, it could be a mismatch of strength on weakness. Johnston is 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, doing his best work downfield, as his six receptions of 50 or more yards ranks him No. 2 nationally behind Tennessee's Jalin Hyatt. "Ringo doesn't play the ball very well in the air, which Quentin Johnston does," observed one coach.
Ringo is the model of the big, rugged corner from the Pete Carroll archetype, checking in at 6-2 and 210 pounds. That frame has not helped him in press coverage, however, as according to ESPN Stats and Info he has the eighth-worst completion percentage playing press in college football this season (45%).
Johnston's 1,066 yards come on just 59 catches. Can he deliver the chunk plays TCU needs to turn the game into a shootout?
"He's not going to kill you down after down after down," said another coach. "You have to hope the five catches he makes, you tackle him."
2. Run, Max, run (and pass, too)
One coach set an interesting over-under for Max Duggan's rushing totals if TCU is going to win. He said that he'd have to run for at least 70 yards, which would require Georgia's rush discipline to be as poor as it was against Ohio State.
"They need to run the quarterback," the coach said. "They do a good job of getting in spread formations and running the ball. Georgia wasn't disciplined in its pass-rush lanes. If you watched the game, they were all over the place and [Ohio State QB C.J.] Stroud took advantage. I think Stroud has a little more initial quickness than Duggan, but Duggan is a much tougher runner."
He also offered the ultimate running quarterback compliment.
"You have to tackle him like a running back, like a Tim Tebow," the coach said. "He's running you over on the goal line. He's running you over, he isn't sliding. That's 100 percent. He's been trucking safeties all year. This guy has a full head of steam downhill and will run you over."
Duggan also needs shots through the air. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he has the fourth-most completions on attempts of more than 20 yards this season with 34. He also has 12 touchdowns of that length and 1,289 yards throwing deep, both of which rank third in the country. That pairs well with Georgia's susceptibility to the long ball.
3. Get healthy, Kendre Miller
Miller, TCU's star tailback, is questionable with a knee injury that knocked him out of the Michigan game. Miller has been dynamic for TCU this season, rushing for 1,399 yards and 17 touchdowns.
His backup, Emari Demercado, came through with a career high after Miller's departure against Michigan. But the reality is TCU could use both against a stout Georgia run defense that's the best in the country, allowing just 80 yards rushing per game. On the season, Georgia has allowed just 30 rushes of 10 yards, per ESPN Stats & Info.
"Obviously, having both of those guys is critical to their success," said an opposing coach. "To have both guys and be able to roll them through, it definitely would be a loss to not have [Miller]. He's got balance, he's really patient and the ability to hit the accelerator and go.
"He's a very patient runner with their scheme and how much zone and counters they run. They're so spread out, he can make a jump cut and wind it back to get vertical."
One caveat that could arise against Georgia's stout front -- both of the backs need to be better in pass protection. Neither stood out in that category this year, according to coaches.
4. Make Georgia uncomfortable
One coach asked a fascinating question. What should Georgia do if it wins the coin flip? Do the Bulldogs go against football conventional thinking and take the ball to start the game? According to coaches, Michigan got uncomfortable in the game after falling behind 14-0 early. The Wolverines blitzed more often on defense, stayed out of multiple tight end formations on offense and never really got back in sync.
Could Georgia take the ball if it won the toss, attempt to milk the clock and give up the chance to win the middle eight -- the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second? Could TCU take the ball to start and attempt to launch a tempo where it snaps the ball 100 times?
"If you feel like you're going to be able to outscore, I'm going to take the ball and try and get Georgia uncomfortable again," said a coach. "I don't know if they're going to do that. If you feel comfortable offensively, one way to do this is to say, 'Hey, we're going to take the ball to start the first half.'
"If Georgia jumps on them 7-0 and forces a punt, it slows the game dramatically."
Expect TCU to use plenty of tempo on offense. That's one way it can help get mismatches in the throw game. According to Pro Football Focus, Ohio State completed 17 of 18 passes against defensive backs in coverage that weren't Ringo. Can tempo make Georgia's defense a bit more vanilla and allow Duggan to go after Kamari Lassiter? He'll have a target on his back after getting picked on by Ohio State.
5. Hodges-Tomlinson Island?
There have been few better cover corners in college football this year than Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson. He has the lowest completion percentage allowed when targeted among FBS players -- a meager 25.7% with opposing quarterbacks completing just 17-for-66. Michigan was 0-for-6 going at him in the Fiesta Bowl.
His ability to blanket one side of the field, combined with Georgia's poor production at the wide receiver position, could allow TCU to get creative in its 3-3-5 defense. Expect it to load the box, blitz from creative angles and switch up formations.
One coach familiar with TCU was surprised at how much Bear front TCU ran against Michigan. A Bear front is essentially a five-man front used to help combat the run that covers the guards and center. It's a curveball from TCU's odd-man fronts and a nifty adjustment Michigan had to deal with after quickly falling behind.
The return of A.D. Mitchell for Georgia -- 3 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown -- was welcome. He hadn't played since Sept. 10 and bolstered an anemic receiving corps, which includes star Ladd McConkey, who had just 2 catches for minus-1 yards against Ohio State and is still apparently bothered by knee tendinitis.
Overall, UGA's receivers had the fifth-lowest percentage of yards on their own team in college football this year. The hope for TCU will be that Hodges-Tomlinson can shut down a side of the field, and that allows coordinator Joe Gillespie to get exotic with blitzes.
"I think the biggest thing is scheme-wise figuring out where the run fits are," said an opposing coach. "Where the extra body is going to be. [Hodges-Tomlinson] is a really good player.
"How do you get the ball through and around him? Those are the things you worry about. They do a really good job with the scheme of pressures at certain times."
6. Block Jalen Carter
Georgia's star defensive tackle was quiet against Ohio State, but he still has the ability to wreck a game plan. One coach pointed out that one of the reasons Tennessee's receivers didn't test UGA's defensive backs more was that Hendon Hooker didn't have time to throw to them.
If that's the case for TCU, it will be a long night. TCU won't be physically overmatched up front, as it has starters who average 317 pounds and none is smaller than 6-foot-4. TCU isn't going to push UGA around, but it doesn't have to.
"They're really big," said one coach. "They're better than I thought. They are really well-coached. I thought they handled Michigan's movements well in the last game and worked well together. They're big, massive, good players who move their feet well. They are not a knock-you-off-the-ball operation. They're really, really good at position blocking and giving the RB enough crease to go get 4 yards."
TCU spreads out so much -- 25% of its snaps are with four wideouts -- that teams end up playing essentially four linemen and one linebacker. A little hole can mean big gains.
If they can keep pressure off Duggan, it will put more pressure on Georgia. That mental pressure is going to play a big role in any TCU upset.
"I think they can make this thing a game," a coach said. "Everyone is going to tell them it's not going to be a game. Heck, if you're Sonny, you're playing with house money. All the pressure is on Georgia. Go out and have fun and let it rip. They can be aggressive and take risks."