NFL scouts tend to view players through prototypes. They covet specific physical attributes of what makes successful players, as there are defined and refined formulas for height, weight and speed at every position.
When one NFL scout evaluated the TCU defense this year, he saw what he always saw -- a hard-hitting, try-hard group that flies around the field. He didn't see many body types that translate to Sundays.
"The only NFL body type of their defense up front is [defensive end] Dylan Horton," the scout said, referencing the players who are likely to enter the NFL draft. "In terms of front seven guys, they're not super talented up front."
The scout concluded: "If TCU is going to win this game, it's going to be more of a 38-28 game. They're not going to win a slugfest."
TCU's unconventional defense from 3-3-5 maestro Joe Gillespie, the team's first-year defensive coordinator, is built more to slow down the Big 12's offenses than to address Michigan's steady diet of inside zone run plays cribbed from Big Ten central casting.
We quizzed a dozen coaches and NFL scouts who studied both teams this year, and the consistent worry that emerged was whether TCU could physically withstand the inevitable and predictable Michigan offensive game plan. (It wasn't lost that Cincinnati's 3-3-5 got pushed around by a simplistic Alabama offensive game plan in the College Football Playoff last year.)
The tension of this College Football Playoff semifinal (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) is simple -- will Michigan's physical mismatch behind an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award allow it to push TCU around and control the ball and the game? Or will a TCU defense that held Texas star tailback Bijan Robinson to essentially the worst game of his career muster a creative counter?
Before casting TCU as a complete pushover, it's important to note that one NFL scout called it "one of the most physical teams I've seen this year." That will be tested.
"I think Michigan's superpower is they do what they do and they have complete alignment in how and why they are doing it," said an opposing coach. "I thought they beat Ohio State because they're a complete team. They are self-aware and know what they are good at. They believe in it, and they do it."
TCU has flashed run dominance, even if it's yielding 4.1 yards per carry and rank No. 67 against the run for the season. Can Michigan's defiant ethos of methodical football lean into an area where TCU appears vulnerable?
Four keys to victory for Michigan
1. All eyes on J.J. McCarthy
With an iconic performance at Ohio State, Michigan quarterback McCarthy delivered a victory for the ages. He threw three long touchdown passes, rushed for another touchdown and played efficient, mistake-free football.
For Michigan to win a pair of games in this playoff -- and there are plenty of people who think it can -- McCarthy will have to be a dynamic dual-threat player. Although he has developed well, there's still a sense that an opposing defense's best bet is limiting the damage he can do with his legs and forcing him to be a pure pocket passer.
"I don't think it's earth-shattering information," an opposing coach said. "Get them off-schedule and make the quarterback drop back and throw is still the best way to beat them. I think [McCarthy] is really talented, but that's still the thing they do least well.
"Can you make them be a dropback passing team? Not just play-action shots, because they can beat you down the field doing that. Can you get them off-schedule, so it's third-and-9 and they have to throw the ball and everyone knows?"
2. Can the Wolverines wear down TCU?
One coach observed that even the games Michigan played close in the second half this year -- Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, Iowa -- didn't feel like close games. Michigan delivers a physical pounding to the opposition, and the Wolverines' collective strength is the power of all the body blows they deliver the opposition.
"I think the difference is that Michigan finally figured out the recruiting piece; they are big and long and tough," an opposing coach said. "The body blows and physicality, it didn't feel like a close game. That's what they do best. They are built that way from a personnel standpoint and coaching standpoint and way they call the game."
Michigan ranks in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense. The Wolverines' special teams are always considered the best in the Big Ten, as opposing coaches say that aspect clearly matters when teams play them. Can TCU stand up to the challenge in all three phases?
"I don't think TCU can match that physicality -- TCU on offense playing against Michigan on defense," a coach said. Michigan is big and long and sudden, especially up front. They don't necessarily have the freak pass-rushers [Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo] from a year ago. They may be better as a team defense. They may play together better than they did even a year ago."
3. No 'dead fish' up front
One coach joked that his defensive staff always scours film for the "dead fish" on the offensive line. Simply put, it's the player who stinks.
"They don't have one," he said.
Offensive line coach and co-coordinator Sherrone Moore has built units that won the award for the country's top line in both of his seasons as line coach. The most impressive part of this Michigan offensive line is that the sum is greater than the parts. There's no surefire first-round pick up front for Michigan, as the Wolverines' ability to play and move together -- especially in the inside zone run game -- is the key.
Michigan center Olu Oluwatimi won the Rimington Award for the country's top center and the Outland Trophy for the country's top interior lineman. He's been the heartbeat in the middle since transferring from Virginia. (And if you want to peek ahead, he would be facing a marquee matchup with Georgia's Jalen Carter if the favorites advance.)
Perhaps most impressive is the way Oluwatimi seamlessly blended in, as the symmetry of the group is what impressed another coach. That coach said that his staff identified left guard Trevor Keegan as the line's weakest player but that the scheme hides him.
"They helped him so much," the coach said. "His weakness gets overshadowed. How they do the protections? They don't leave him isolated, so he doesn't get exposure. They do a good job out there covering him up."
4. Michigan's dual threat at tight end
There are few players who've improved their draft stock more this year than Michigan tight end Luke Schoonmaker, who nearly doubled his production from last year.
Schoonmaker has 386 receiving yards, three touchdowns and a reputation as a true dual-threat tight end. He's not Georgia's Brock Bowers, but he might get picked ahead of UGA's Darnell Washington in the upcoming NFL draft.
On the line, Schoonmaker is a sixth offensive lineman for Michigan's group of maulers. As a pass-catcher, he's one of the top in the country at his position, averaging 11.4 yards per catch.
Schoonmaker is 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, and one scout said it's fair to consider him a top-50 prospect. One coach gushed on Schoonmaker and wondered whether his sheer size could be a mismatch against TCU.
"He's the whole package, one of the best college tight ends that I've seen," one coach said. "And that goes back almost 20 years. He's a dynamic in-line blocker, and he's elite in the passing game. They do a good job keeping him involved and being part of it."
Four keys to victory for TCU
1. Get a push up front
TCU's offensive line isn't small, averaging 317 pounds and with no player shorter than 6-foot-4 and near-term (guard Steve Avila) and long-term NFL prospects (tackles Brandon Coleman and Andrew Coker). Even the slightest player on the line, center Alan Ali, checks in at 6-foot-5 and 300 pounds.
Can TCU push around Michigan's defensive line? One opposing coach pointed out that Kendre Miller, who is an NFL talent at tailback, is the "catalyst" of the whole offense. And he has made his living running up the middle, as he ranks fourth nationally in rushing for 1,141 of his 1,342 yards between the tackles. Michigan's run defense finished No. 3 nationally, in part because it yielded the fourth-fewest yards per rush between the tackles, per ESPN Stats & Information data.
"They're big enough up front where they can handle Michigan's front," a scout said. "They're not a finesse offensive line."
The key tension in the run game for TCU quarterback Max Duggan will be how disciplined Michigan's defensive ends are in containing the run.
"If the defensive end doesn't do a good job keeping the edge, Max is going to be gone out the side," an opposing coach said. "The defensive front has to be disciplined in their rush lanes. If guys think they can win the one-on-one matchup and rush past the level of the quarterback, he's going to step up and be gone by the time you counter."
2. Live on the edge
One of TCU's advantages in this playoff is team speed. While the Horned Frogs are big enough up front on offense to not get pushed around, they aren't going to win by taking a page from Michigan's methodical offensive playbook.
TCU's offense will be an adjustment for Michigan, as they operate out of 10 personnel -- one RB and four WRs -- on 28% of their offensive snaps. That ranks them 12th in the country for using that lineup, according to ESPN Stats & Info tracking. Michigan has seen only 25 total snaps against that 10-personnel look, so there could be an adjustment to playing against unfamiliar formations and adjusting to personnel.
"I think where TCU could potentially have an opportunity is speed and playing on the perimeter," a coach said. "Throwing the ball around. Get on the edge of them. To me, that's where you could see. Live on edge. Ball out of hand fast."
The Horned Frogs need to win with quick strikes to take advantage of a Michigan secondary that's talented but not elite. The cornerback teams have tended to test the most is DJ Turner, who scouts say will get drafted. Freshman Will Johnson has the look of a future star on the other side. Veteran Gemon Green, who no longer starts, will likely see plenty of snaps with all the receivers TCU plays with.
TCU's best shot is taking advantage of one-on-one matchups on the perimeter. If the Horned Frogs can score early enough, they can take Michigan out of its preferred offensive pace, which is more slow cooker than microwave.
"Michigan isn't elite at corner," an opposing coach said. "They play enough man and put themselves in enough situations in man. Hit a few 50-50 balls."
3. Straight line to a lead
TCU junior wide receiver Quentin Johnston has catapulted himself to become the projected top wide receiver in the upcoming NFL draft. He's the top overall NFL prospect in the game, a physical marvel at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds.
ESPN's Todd McShay has Johnston ranked as the top wideout, and he has earned that with 903 receiving yards and five touchdowns this season. Johnston is the top big-body vertical threat in college football, as he can run and track the ball on linear routes as well as anyone in the sport.
Johnston's five receptions of more than 50 yards is the second most in the FBS. Duggan's 13 completions of more than 50 yards ranks him No. 1 in the FBS. Johnston will be a fascinating test for a Michigan defense, as it's no secret how the Horned Frogs like to use him.
"He's big and imposing," a scout said. "There's a big catch radius, good ball skills and he runs well for a big wide receiver. He's strong."
Scouts have noted that most of Johnston's drops this season have come on shorter routes and in-breaking routes. But he's elite at running deep, tracking the ball and winning over smaller defenders, and he presents the most obvious mismatch for TCU.
"TCU does a really good job in that they don't give a lot away based on splits," an opposing coach said. "He'll run every route from every split."
Horned Frogs offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, the Broyles Award winner for the nation's top assistant coach, has figured out ways to put Duggan in position to target Johnston when the look allows.
"If he sees single high and knows he has the one-one out there, he throws that well," an opposing coach said. "With the intermediate routes, the fit between zone passes, he's not going to beat you that way."
4. Has TCU's defense improved enough?
An opposing coach said that early in the year, TCU played about a quarter of its defensive snaps in Cover 2. The back half of the season, that number plummeted to less than 5%. The Horned Frogs played more man coverage, focused on stopping the run, and the results were performances like stoning Texas in Austin for 28 rushing yards.
"They basically said, 'We're not going to drop back and play zone,'" an opposing coach said. "'We have decent cover guys. Let's stop the run.'"
Michigan will be without its best player, tailback Blake Corum, who had season-ending surgery. Backup Donovan Edwards has run for 401 yards and three touchdowns in the past two games.
Although the physics of the matchup up front don't favor TCU, opposing coaches caution that Michigan could struggle with getting a feel for the unorthodox defense. Coaches have been bullish on the way junior Horned Frogs linebacker Jamoi Hodge has played lately, with one calling him a "heat-seeking missile."
"I think TCU's advantage is no one in the Big Ten really runs this style of defense," an opposing coach said. "There's a chance for them to be successful because Michigan is not used to it, and there's some intricacies. If you don't target it right, you will think you have some easy stuff and you don't. It's harder to run against than you think."