Heading into the final four weeks of the regular season, the picture around college football seems pretty clear. The top of the College Football Playoff rankings consists of four unbeaten teams (Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU), then two teams that have lost only to top-ranked Georgia (Tennessee and Oregon). The division races that haven't been mostly sewn up are pretty straightforward. There's still plenty of really fun football to look forward to, but despite the fact that both Alabama and Clemson, with their 13 combined CFP appearances and five titles, have been all but eliminated from playoff contention (and four-time participant Oklahoma bombed out a long time ago), everything feels rather orderly.
Too orderly, actually. It makes me suspicious. It would be awfully true to college football's nature to throw us a few curveballs in the next couple of weeks. Granted, the Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 5 teams are favored by a combined 108 points Saturday, but No. 4 TCU faces a rugged road trip, No. 6 Oregon hosts a prolific rival Saturday night and No. 7 LSU is looking at a prime, Grade-A letdown game if it's hungover from last week's big win over Bama.
Odds are good that something weird is about to happen. Keep your eyes peeled. Here's everything you need to follow from a fishy Week 11 slate.
Now comes the hard part for TCU: actually running the table
No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App)
Now that they've jumped from seventh to fourth in the CFP rankings, it's pretty obvious that if Sonny Dykes' Horned Frogs win out, they're in. There's nothing easy about their remaining slate, however. They are underdogs at Texas this weekend, and with Baylor rising quickly, next week's trip to Waco is looking pretty close to a toss-up. SP+ gives TCU only a 15% chance of reaching even 12-0, much less 13-0.
To say the least, this line is funky. According to ESPN's Stats & Information Group, going back to 1978's FBS/FCS split there have been no instances of a top-five team being more than a 6.5-point underdog against a team outside of the top 10. TCU is currently +7.
Of course, TCU is also 7-1-1 against the spread this season. The Frogs have mastered looking good enough to win mostly comfortably but showing enough flaws (usually falling behind early) to prevent them from earning sportsbooks' trust. Meanwhile, both the books and computers love Texas despite a trio of losses. The Horns rank sixth in both FPI and SP+, having played their best games against the best opponents on the schedule -- they lost by one against Alabama in Week 2 and, most recently, took down an excellent Kansas State team in Manhattan.
The offenses hold most of the advantages here. The quarterbacks are headliners -- TCU's Max Duggan ranks 14th in Total QBR and is on pace for more than 3,500 passing yards and 35 touchdowns, while Texas' Quinn Ewers is 17th and responded to his first bad start (in a loss to Oklahoma State) by going 18-for-31 with two touchdowns against a strong KSU defense. But both teams will run all day if you let them. TCU's Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado are averaging 150.1 rushing yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry, and Bijan Robinson was the primary reason for UT's win in Manhattan, rushing 30 times for 209 yards and a touchdown. He's averaging 160.3 combined rushing and receiving yards per game at 6.8 yards per touch.
These offenses are not only strong but relentless. Texas averages 7.5 yards per play (first) and 3.2 points per drive (14th) while behind this season, and TCU averages 7.4 (third) and 3.4 (seventh), respectively. The Texas defense is stronger up front than TCU's, but the Horns are a full-on bend-don't-break unit against the pass (117th in blitzes per dropback, 95th in passing success rate allowed), and TCU's attack has broken a few secondaries.
Current line: Horns -7 (down from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Horns by 4.8 | FPI projection: Horns by 8.5.
Can LSU close the door in the SEC West? Or are things about to get weird?
By Saturday evening, the SEC West race could be completely over or just beginning. With a win at Arkansas and an Alabama victory at Ole Miss, LSU would clinch the division title just a week after achieving front-runner status.
But despite how drastically different the teams looked last week -- LSU knocked off Bama while Arkansas was upset by Liberty -- LSU is only a 3-point favorite in Fayetteville this weekend. And if the Tigers slip up, things could get weird in a hurry. With a Bama win over Ole Miss, there would be a three-way tie atop the West in the loss column, and while LSU would hold the tiebreakers, its Thanksgiving trip to College Station to face Texas A&M could invite massive anxiety. Meanwhile, if Ole Miss were to beat Bama at home in Oxford and LSU were to lose, Lane Kiffin's Rebels would suddenly be your new division leaders.
No. 7 LSU at Arkansas (noon, ESPN/ESPN App)
It really looked like Arkansas had gotten things ironed out. After losing three games in a row and getting blown out by Mississippi State, Sam Pittman's Razorbacks had won at BYU and Auburn by a combined 25 points, averaging 7.6 yards per play in the process. It seemed they could salvage a solid eight-win (or so) season.
Then, against Liberty last Saturday, they scored three points in their first 11 drives and fell behind by 16. They rallied with a pair of KJ Jefferson-to-Trey Knox touchdowns but converted only one of two 2-point conversions and lost 21-19. Now the Hogs are 5-4, preparing to host back-to-back CFP top-11 teams (LSU this week, Ole Miss next week) and looking at a potential "winner bowls, loser doesn't" game at Missouri on Black Friday.
It would be a very college football thing for Arkansas to turn right back around and upset LSU. Dreadful defensive inefficiency, both against the run and on third downs, will likely doom the Hogs against an increasingly efficient LSU attack even if the Arkansas offense gets going again. But the path to an upset is on the table. Here's what needs to happen for the Hogs:
1. Get the run game going again. Even with last week's dreadful performance against Liberty -- Raheim Sanders: 17 carries for just 60 yards (28 in a single carry) -- Arkansas ranks 19th in rushing success rate. LSU's defense ranks 90th in the same category. At their best, the Hogs avoid negative plays and passing downs and wear teams down with tempo. Do that.
2. Bring Jayden Daniels down. Daniels is one of the slipperiest quarterbacks in college football, and in both scrambles and designed runs, he's a huge part of the LSU run game. But he scrambles into trouble a lot too -- LSU ranks just fifth in pressure rate allowed but 111th in sacks allowed per dropback. Bama brought him down six times last week, and Drew Sanders, Jordan Domineck and a solid Arkansas pass rush must do something similar.
3. Get off the field when they get the chance. Despite a good pass rush, Arkansas is incredibly generous when it comes to letting teams off the hook: They're 125th in passing downs success rate allowed, 121st on third-and-long and 107th on third-and-medium. Defensive coordinator Barry Odom's third-down package absolutely stinks this year, but the Hogs will need to create some magic.
Current line: LSU -3 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.5 | FPI projection: LSU by 8.2.
No. 9 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., CBS)
What now? Alabama technically isn't eliminated from the CFP race -- at least, not until LSU locks up the SEC West -- but the odds clearly aren't on the Tide's side. Bama hasn't been left with this little to play for in mid-November since 2010.
Nick Saban's Tide usually respond well to losses: Since 2008, they are 9-0 in the regular season following defeats, winning by an average score of 32-7. But what does it mean if a program that's always playing for something isn't? And what does it mean when said program was already struggling on the road? The Tide have underachieved SP+ projections by an average of 7.9 points in road games this year, and they are projected to win this one by only 7.2. If they don't rebound immediately, they're in danger of suffering a third loss.
This one will likely be decided in the trenches. Ole Miss has leaned heavily on a run-first identity, and it's worked well -- the Rebels rank 12th in rushing success rate allowed, and Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans are averaging 190.7 yards per game (6.0 yards per carry) between them. Teams have had a bit more success than normal running on Bama this year, and if the Tide have any lurking motivation issues, run success and Ole Miss' relentless tempo could bring it to the surface.
Meanwhile, the offensive line has been a large part of the story for Bama this season. As I wrote on Monday, the Tide currently rank in the nation's bottom 25 in offensive line penalties per game, blown run blocks and overall blown blocks. It speaks to how awesome quarterback Bryce Young and running back Jahmyr Gibbs are that they can take that on, in addition to a raw receiving corps that suffers too many drops, and still have the Tide ranked 13th in points per drive and sixth in offensive SP+. But the offensive glitches were particularly costly against LSU and in Bama's near loss to Texas. Of course, Ole Miss ranks 102nd in rushing success rate allowed and rarely makes plays behind the line of scrimmage. If you can't take advantage of Bama moving backward, you probably can't stop the Tide from moving forward.
Current line: Bama -12 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Bama by 7.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.5.
The schedule gets trickier for Oregon
No. 25 Washington at No. 6 Oregon (7 p.m., Fox)
I have already delivered my Bo Nix mea culpa. I didn't see either him or this Oregon offense coming. The Ducks rank first in points per drive, first in offensive success rate and fourth (and rising) in offensive SP+. Nix almost never takes sacks, has completed 73% of his passes and ranks sixth in Total QBR. He could very well end up a Heisman finalist, and if Oregon wins out, he could be playing in the CFP too.
The road is about to get a little bit bumpier, though. Since their 49-3 debacle against Georgia in Week 1, the Ducks have played just two teams currently ranked higher than 72nd in SP+: No. 43 Washington State (44-41 win) and No. 9 UCLA (45-30). They have treated bad opponents appropriately (average score: 49-20), but good opponents are on the way. Their last three regular-season foes all rank between 11th and 33rd, starting with No. 30 Washington.
The Huskies come to Eugene having just knocked Oregon State out of the CFP rankings, 24-21, last Friday. They have been powered by a relentless passing game -- Michael Penix Jr. leads the nation with 3,232 passing yards, and UW ranks sixth in passing success rate -- but when the offense was rendered unreliable in windy conditions last week, the defense stepped up and allowed just one score in Oregon State's final eight drives.
The Saturday evening weather should be chilly but playable in Eugene. And under normal circumstances, the offenses should have most of the advantages. It's the theme of the week, apparently.
Washington's defense has been dreadfully inefficient this season, and the Huskies' best chance of making stops comes from big-play prevention and taking advantage of some Oregon red zone inefficiency. Oregon's run defense is excellent, but Washington barely runs and might never choose to run instead of throwing on an Oregon pass defense that has, to put it politely, been lacking to date.
We obviously don't know everything conference realignment will bring in the future, but this could end up becoming the marquee rivalry of a new Pac-12 after USC and UCLA leave. This is only the eighth time these teams have played as ranked foes -- Oregon has won the past six -- and it might be good for the future Pac-12 if UW springs an upset and lights this rivalry on fire.
Then again, it would be preferable to the current Pac-12 (in terms of its playoff chances) if Oregon keeps winning.
Current line: Ducks -13.5 (up from -12.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Ducks by 11.7 | FPI projection: Ducks by 10.6.
The AAC race (and the race for a New Year's Six bid) heats up
No. 22 UCF at No. 17 Tulane (3:30 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN App)
New Orleans is typically a pretty good place to find a nice redemption arc, and Yulman Stadium will host a couple of them -- plus a pair of ranked teams for the first time -- on Saturday afternoon. Gus Malzahn's UCF Knights (7-2) are moving up to the Big 12 next year and, per SP+, have a 34% chance of winning their final AAC race this fall. Malzahn is 16-6 since getting fired by Auburn and taking over in Orlando; in the same span, Auburn is 9-13.
Willie Fritz, meanwhile, didn't need to change jobs to find redemption. After leading once-moribund Tulane to three consecutive bowls from 2018 to 2020, his Green Wave collapsed to 2-10 last season, spending three weeks in Birmingham due to damage from Hurricane Ida, disintegrating defensively and losing five one-score games. It was pretty clear that they had the pieces to rebound a bit, but the defense has done more than that: After falling to 108th in defensive SP+ in Chris Hampton's debut season as coordinator, the Green Wave have surged to 27th. If they finish in the top 40, it will be the first time they've done so since 1981.
The AAC race -- which is also the de facto race for the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid this year -- could feature some twists and turns down the stretch, especially with Tulane still having to face SMU and Cincinnati in the coming weeks. But the winner of this one will have fantastic odds of reaching the conference title game. And on paper it looks like an absolute toss-up -- good offense vs. good defense when Tulane has the ball (Michael Pratt has completed 67% of his passes to a deep and diverse receiving corps) and great offense vs. great defense when it's UCF's turn.
Of course, at the moment we don't even know who will be behind center for UCF. Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee has had some brilliant moments this year but threw three picks in a surprising blowout loss to East Carolina, then left the Cincy game with a concussion. Displaced 2021 starter Mikey Keene came in, delivered a win over the Bearcats, then went 22-for-28 with three touchdowns in a road win over Memphis. Does Malzahn roll with the hot hand even if Plumlee is ready to go?
Whoever's at quarterback will have a bounty of weapons at his disposal -- running back RJ Harvey and a great receiver trio of Ryan O'Keefe, Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson -- but will be facing a Tulane defense that hems teams in as well as anyone. They Wave have allowed only nine gains of 30-plus yards (third in FBS); they give opponents nothing, then they dominate the red zone (eighth in red zone touchdown rate). It's a solid recipe, but UCF's explosiveness could test the Wave's limits.
Current line: Tulane -1.5 (down from -2 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UCF by 1.0 | FPI projection: UCF by 0.7.
My favorite bets
Something else to add to this week's suspicious vibes: My best bets did a little too well last week. I went 4-1 to move to 29-20-1 for the season (59%) and 67% for the past three weeks. I'm usually pretty confident with the games I choose, but too much success makes me paranoid. Proceed with caution. Here are this week's five picks.
No. 20 Notre Dame (-15.5) vs. Navy (noon, ABC). The Fighting Irish have responded well to their inexplicable loss to Stanford, finding a nice offensive rhythm, thumping both Syracuse and Clemson and rising from 46th to 26th in SP+. Navy overachieved against Cincinnati last week, but SP+ still projects the Irish as something closer to a 23-point favorite.
Oklahoma (-8) at West Virginia (noon, FS1). For all of the justifiable talk about how hot Baylor is at the moment -- the Bears have won three games in a row and could charge into the Big 12 race over the next three weeks -- it took three Dillon Gabriel interceptions for the Bears to hold on at OU last week. The Sooners have stabilized since their dreadful October collapse, and SP+ gives them a 13.3-point edge over a Mountaineers team that has plummeted from 45th to 71st in the past three weeks.
Pitt at Virginia: Over 40 points (noon, ACCN). SP+ simply insisted on this one despite the fact that it whiffed on a Pitt Over last week. Only six of these teams' 18 games have fallen under 40 points. Granted, four of those six instances have come in the last month as both teams' defenses have begun to improve. But running back Israel Abanikanda should be back for Pitt, Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong played well last week, and 40 is just a really low bar.
Troy (-9) vs. Army (3:30 p.m., NFL Network). Troy has been one of the nation's biggest overachievers this season, going 7-2 against the spread and leaping from 91st to 52nd in SP+. It is currently in the Sun Belt West driver's seat. Army, meanwhile, has disappointed -- it's 3-5 both straight up and against the spread. Picking against a service academy always gives me pause, but I'm doing it twice this week because I simply think both lines are far too low.
South Carolina (+8) at Florida (4 p.m., SECN). Florida should definitely be favored -- the Gators are 1-4 against teams currently in the SP+ top 25 but 4-0 against everyone else (South Carolina is 39th) -- but I think the books overreacted to South Carolina's loss to Missouri two weeks ago. The Gamecocks covered semi-comfortably against Vanderbilt in one of last week's best bets, and SP+ projects them as a 3-point underdog here, not 8.
Week 11 playlist
Here are more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday night
East Carolina at Cincinnati (8 p.m., ESPN2). Tulane-UCF is the big one in the AAC, but the winner of this one will still be very much in the hunt. Cincinnati has mastered the art of winning in disappointing fashion -- the Bearcats are 7-2 but 1-6-1 against the spread -- and ECU has walloped UCF and won at BYU in its past two games. Current line: Cincy -5 (down from -5.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 11.0 | FPI projection: Cincy by 6.2.
Early Saturday
Purdue at No. 21 Illinois (noon, ESPN2). Even with last week's loss to Michigan State, Bret Bielema's Illini are a game up on the field and in possession of most of the meaningful tiebreakers in the Big Ten West. They're still the favorites in a messy race, but that won't be the case if they lose this one. Purdue is trending in the wrong direction, though. Current line: Illini -6.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Illini by 8.0 | FPI projection: Illini by 5.5.
Missouri at No. 5 Tennessee (noon, CBS). Mizzou has lost four conference games by a combined 18 points; the Tigers could land some punches on Tennessee if the Vols are at all hungover from last week's tough loss to Georgia. Then again, Mizzou has yet to score 24 points on a power-conference opponent this year, and Tennessee has scored 34-plus on everyone not named Georgia. The gap is pretty wide here. Current line: Vols -20.5 (down from -21 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Vols by 19.4 | FPI projection: Vols by 21.7.
Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (noon, Fox). The last time Ohio State won in underwhelming fashion (vs. Notre Dame in Week 1), the Buckeyes responded by winning six straight games by 29 or more points. Will they respond in similar fashion to last week's frustrating 21-7 win over Northwestern? Current line: Buckeyes -40 (down from -41 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 40.8 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 35.4.
No. 20 Notre Dame vs. Navy (noon, ABC). Meeting No. 92 for these old rivals takes place in Baltimore. Navy has won just once in the series since 2010, and Notre Dame appears to be on a roll. Current line: Irish -15.5 (down from -17 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 22.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 19.8.
Liberty at UConn (noon, CBSSN). After going a combined 4-32 from 2018 to 2021, UConn is 5-5 and in need of just one more win for bowl eligibility. Liberty, on the other hand, was denied a top-25 ranking by the CFP committee despite last week's win at Arkansas and might be in the mood to send a message. Honestly, I'm not sure how the Huskies will score on an awesome Liberty defense. Current line: Liberty -14.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Liberty by 15.8 | FPI projection: Liberty by 14.1.
Saturday afternoon
Louisville at No. 10 Clemson (3:30 p.m., ESPN). A tough rebound game for Dabo Swinney and his Tigers. Louisville has won four in a row and risen from 60th to 32nd in SP+. Clemson is the better team, but any lingering funk could be costly. Current line: Clemson -7 (down from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 7.8 | FPI projection: Clemson by 9.9.
Wisconsin at Iowa (3:30 p.m., FS1). If Illinois slips up against Purdue, the winner of this one could be poised to take advantage in the Big Ten West race. Both the Badgers and Hawkeyes have started looking like themselves again after midseason rough patches, and Iowa is actually moving the football! Iowa! Current line: Wisconsin -1.5 (flipped from Iowa -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Iowa by 2.3 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 0.5.
Nebraska at No. 3 Michigan (3:30 p.m., ABC). For a moment, it looked like Nebraska might rally and make a run at bowl eligibility, but three straight losses and an arm injury to quarterback Casey Thompson -- he's out Saturday -- have all but ended the Huskers' hopes. Keep an eye on this one for the purposes of scouting Michigan-Ohio State, if nothing else. Current line: Michigan -31 (up from -29 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 29.9 | FPI projection: Michigan by 29.8.
Maryland at No. 14 Penn State (3:30 p.m., Fox). Penn State is 0-2 against top-three teams and 7-0, with six wins by double digits, against mortals. Maryland looked genuinely interesting for a while but has underachieved projections in four straight games. It's not the first time the Terps have faded, but they could still prime themselves for a pretty big bowl with a rebound and upset here. Current line: PSU -10 (down from -12 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: PSU by 10.6 | FPI projection: PSU by 10.7.
Saturday evening
No. 1 Georgia at Mississippi State (7 p.m., ESPN). Mike Leach is 0-4 against Alabama and Georgia but 11-9 against everyone else in the SEC since taking over at MSU. It would be a surprise if his Bulldogs found success against Georgia's increasingly nasty secondary -- one that dominated a great Tennessee receiving corps last week -- but the game is in cowbell country, where things are always just one step away from getting weird. Current line: Georgia -16 (down from -16.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Georgia by 16.4 | FPI projection: Georgia by 14.3.
No. 19 Kansas State at Baylor (7 p.m., FS1). Baylor has averaged 40 points over its past four games, and its defense has grown increasingly dangerous and opportunistic in the past three. Both of these teams desperately need wins to stay in the Big 12 title race -- Kansas State because of losses to both TCU and Texas, Baylor because TCU and Texas are up next. Current line: BU -2.5 (down from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: BU by 1.7 | FPI projection: BU by 3.9.
No. 15 North Carolina at Wake Forest (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). How good are UNC quarterback Drake Maye & Co.? The Tar Heels are 8-1 despite a defense that ranks 113th in points allowed per drive and 99th in defensive SP+. They might need their track shoes again in Winston-Salem, though I'd love to better understand what the heck has happened to the Wake Forest offense over the past two weeks. Current line: Wake -3.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Wake by 2.0 | FPI projection: Wake by 1.4.
No. 23 Florida State at Syracuse (8 p.m., ACCN). FSU rallied late but lost to Clemson by six in Week 7; since then, the Seminoles have kept the rally going, beating a pair of ACC foes by a combined 86-19. Syracuse let Clemson rally late and lost by six in Week 8; the Orange have since lost their past two games by a combined 60-33. I guess not every close loss is the same. Current line: FSU -7 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: FSU by 4.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 1.9.
Texas A&M at Auburn (7:30 p.m., SECN). Texas A&M allowed 15.7 points per game during a 3-1 start but has allowed 33.6 on average during a five-game losing streak. Coach Jimbo Fisher's wonky offense has earned plenty of criticism, but the defense is collapsing. Will that matter against an Auburn team that can't throw? Current line: Auburn -1.5 (down from -2 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: A&M by 2.7 | FPI projection: Auburn by 0.6.
Florida Atlantic at Florida International (7 p.m., Stadium). Shula Bowl, baby! These soon-to-be-former Conference USA rivals -- FAU moves to the AAC next year -- are dealing with some important stakes: Both are 4-5 and in need of a couple more wins for bowl eligibility. FAU is the better team, but the Owls have underachieved projections in three of four games, while FIU has overachieved in three of four. Current line: FAU -15.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: FAU by 13.0 | FPI projection: FAU by 18.5.
Late Saturday
Arizona at No. 12 UCLA (10:30 p.m., Fox). It's pretty clear at this point: The CFP committee hated UCLA's nonconference schedule and has kept its ranking tamped down accordingly. The Bruins are therefore in need of some style points. SP+ ranks them ninth overall and thinks they're capable of a huge win here, but Arizona remains sporadically feisty. Current line: UCLA -19.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: UCLA by 27.6 | FPI projection: UCLA by 17.3.
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. It's always worth it. In last week's showcase games, the FCS' top-ranked teams, South Dakota State and Sacramento State, outlasted conference rivals (Northern Iowa and Weber State) by three points each, and the incredible D3-to-FCS story of St. Thomas continued as the Tommies stomped Valparaiso.
This week, we once again have no top-10 vs. top-10 matchups to follow, but we've got some interesting teams to check in on all the same.
Division II: No. 3 Shepherd at No. 19 Indiana (Pa.) (3 p.m., local streaming). You might remember Tyson Bagent's name from last year's Division II playoffs, when he threw a 23-yard touchdown pass with one second left to beat Notre Dame (Ohio), then a 42-yarder at the buzzer to beat Kutztown on the way to the national semifinals. Shepherd is 10-0 this year, and Bagent has thrown another 33 touchdown passes to break the Div. II career record. The Rams face an almost equally prolific Indiana (Pa.) team in the PSAC Championship, and then it's time for more playoff drama.
FCS: No. 4 North Dakota State at Southern Illinois (2 p.m., ESPN+). NDSU, winner of nine of the past 11 FCS championships, seemed stuck in third gear for much of this season. The Bison suffered a defeat against Arizona in September (ending a lengthy FBS winning streak) and were just sort of getting by in conference play before a 23-21 loss to South Dakota State. The loss might have jolted them awake, though. They've won their past two games by a combined 80-24, and now they get a couple more solid tests -- at SIU this week, North Dakota at home next week -- to find their playoff form.
FCS: No. 16 Princeton at Yale (noon, ESPN+). Princeton's Bob Surace is one of my favorite coaches, both because of his general philosophy -- the former Cincinnati Bengals assistant brings a certain "smashmouth spread" vibe to the table -- and because of results. His Tigers are 8-0 (and 35-3 since the start of 2018) and ranked in the top 10 of my FCS SP+ ratings. Star receivers Andrei Iosivas and Dylan Classi are averaging 187 receiving yards per game and 15.2 yards per catch, but the biggest tests start now: Princeton's final two games are against the two teams just one game behind in the Ivy League standings, Yale and Penn.