First, Tennessee got thumped by Georgia, with the Vols suffering their first defeat of the season. Then Clemson also fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, losing at Notre Dame, and Alabama was knocked off by LSU. Just like that, three of the top six teams in the initial College Football Playoff rankings had lost, turning the playoff hunt upside down.
What does it all mean for the bowl picture? ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach break it all down with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP matchups, which teams helped and hurt their causes the most, and which matchup they'd most like to see.
All times Eastern
College Football Playoff
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. TCU
CFP breakdown
Bonagura: Well, that was quite the college football Saturday. All it took was the first batch of CFP rankings to get released to see a bunch of results that will reshape the playoff picture. There's one thing everyone should be able to agree on: Georgia is the unquestioned No. 1 team in the country, so let's go ahead and peg them in at the top.
For bowl projection purposes, we'll take one team from the Big Ten. I've gone back and forth for weeks between Michigan and Ohio State, but after the Buckeyes' disinterested performance against a very bad Northwestern team, Michigan gets the nod this week. After Clemson's loss to Notre Dame, the ACC is, for all intents and purposes, out of the playoff mix. Clemson was suspect anyway and only was in the conversation because of its brand and undefeated record. No more. That leaves two spots for three contenders -- 1. TCU (easy selection right now with its undefeated record); 2. a Pac-12 team (Oregon, UCLA or USC); and 3. a second SEC team (Tennessee and Ole Miss are the only one-loss teams).
Tennessee's case is compelling. It has a straightforward path to 11-1 (Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt remain), and its only loss is to the No. 1 team in the country. But that won't be enough to win its own division unless Georgia inexplicably falls apart. If Oregon runs the table, that would pose an interesting question for the committee. Take the Ducks, with 12 straight wins and a conference championship? Or Tennessee, without a conference title but with a better performance in its only loss against Georgia, which smashed Oregon? One's inherent bias will likely inform which way to lean.
It's a much more difficult path for the Ducks to get to that point (Washington, Utah, Oregon State and the possible Pac-12 title game), which is a double-edged sword. Odds are, the Ducks will lose along the way, but if they get through that stretch, their résumé will receive a huge boost. Let's just go with Oregon for now, although that presents another issue. Would the committee set up a semifinal rematch with Georgia, or avoid that and put TCU in the No. 4 spot? So many questions, so much intrigue.
Schlabach: Finally, there was some serious shake-up at the top of the college football world. Defending national champion Georgia dominated No. 1 Tennessee 27-13 in a game that wasn't that close. Notre Dame stunned No. 4 Clemson 35-14, and No. 10 LSU took down No. 6 Alabama 32-31 with a gutsy 2-point conversion in overtime being the difference. Ohio State looked so-so in tough weather conditions in a 21-7 victory at Northwestern, and No. 5 Michigan pulled away from Rutgers 52-17.
Georgia moves back to No. 1 in my rankings, followed by No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 TCU, which moved to 9-0 with a 34-24 win against Texas Tech. I'll go with Michigan as my No. 4 team for now. If there are a handful of 11-1 teams at the end of the regular season (I'm assuming the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines at home Nov. 26), Michigan might pass the eye test as the best one-loss team despite its soft nonconference schedule. Alabama's second loss didn't help Tennessee's chances, and Oregon's ugly loss to Georgia in the opener might be difficult to forget.
Matchup Schlabach is most excited to see
Ohio State-TCU: I'm guessing the CFP selection committee won't give TCU much more love after Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma each lost again Saturday. Sonny Dykes has done a fantastic job in his maiden season to get the Horned Frogs to 9-0. TCU might not have enough firepower on defense to slow down the Buckeyes, but I'm not sure Ohio State could stonewall TCU's high-flying offense either. A Fiesta Bowl matchup between the teams would be something new and would be fun to watch.
New Year's Six
Dec. 30
Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Clemson vs. LSU
Schlabach: Clemson vs. LSU
Dec. 31
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Texas vs. Tennessee
Jan. 2
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Tulane
Schlabach: USC vs. Tulane
Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Oregon
Matchup Bonagura is most excited to see
UCLA-Ohio State: This would be a fun Rose Bowl matchup. Ohio State coach Ryan Day played for UCLA coach Chip Kelly at New Hampshire and was later his quarterbacks coach on the staffs of the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
Team that helped itself the most
Bonagura: Georgia should be able to handle the rest of the regular season (Mississippi State, Kentucky and Georgia Tech) with relative ease. If the Bulldogs reach the SEC title game undefeated, that's probably enough of a buffer to still reach the playoff even with a loss. Life is good in Athens.
Schlabach: After losing 15 players to the NFL draft after a 2021 campaign in which Georgia won its first national championship in 41 years, there were plenty of doubts about whether the Bulldogs could run it back. Their dominant performance against the high-flying Volunteers should take care of that. Georgia dominated on both lines and pressured quarterback Hendon Hooker throughout the contest. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett once again played very well in a big game and should start getting some serious Heisman Trophy consideration. With SEC road games left at Mississippi State and Kentucky, Georgia can clinch the SEC East with one more victory. The Bulldogs close the regular season at home against Georgia Tech on Nov. 26.
Bowl season
Dec. 16
HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UAB vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Bowling Green
Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: SMU vs. UAB
Dec. 17
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. UCF
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: Rice vs. San Diego State
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Boise State
LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Rice
Schlabach: Troy vs. BYU
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Washington vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Washington vs. Mississippi State
Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Texas vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. UNLV
Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee State
Dec. 20
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Air Force vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ball State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern
Team that hurt itself the most
Bonagura: It would take a very unlikely set of circumstances for either Clemson or Alabama to get back into playoff consideration. Alabama would need LSU to fall apart (Arkansas, UAB, Texas A&M remain for the Tigers) to reach the SEC title game -- that's its only path to the playoff. Clemson is still undefeated in the ACC but to be so offensively inept against Notre Dame -- a team that lost to Stanford a few weeks ago -- makes it tough to take the Tigers seriously.
Schlabach: For only the second time in the past nine seasons, there will be a College Football Playoff without Alabama. The Crimson Tide had been playing with fire for much of the season. They had 15 penalties in a 20-19 victory at Texas. They had four turnovers in a 24-20 win against Texas A&M. They had 17 penalties in a 52-49 loss at Tennessee and then nine more in a 32-31 loss at LSU on Saturday night. It might be the most undisciplined team Nick Saban has put on the field at Alabama, and all the mistakes have probably knocked it out of the SEC West race. The Tide will have to clean things up or they might lose at Ole Miss next week.
Dec. 21
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Troy
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Dec. 22
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Memphis
Dec. 23
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Houston vs. Army
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Liberty
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Appalachian State
Dec. 24
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Air Force
Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan
Dec. 27
Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Middle Tennessee State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Southern Miss
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Liberty vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Wyoming
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: SMU vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. South Alabama
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Iowa
Dec. 28
Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Houston
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. UCF
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Florida
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Utah
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Utah
TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Baylor
Dec. 29
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Maryland
Schlabach: NC State vs. Purdue
Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Baylor
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. USC
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. UCLA
Dec. 30
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Purdue
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Maryland
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Oregon State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Florida State vs. South Carolina
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Ball State
Dec. 31
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Kentucky
Jan. 2
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Florida
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama