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Week 10 bowl projections: Playoff, New Year's Six

Losses at the top of the CFP rankings created an opening for Black Corum and Michigan. Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire

First, Tennessee got thumped by Georgia, with the Vols suffering their first defeat of the season. Then Clemson also fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, losing at Notre Dame, and Alabama was knocked off by LSU. Just like that, three of the top six teams in the initial College Football Playoff rankings had lost, turning the playoff hunt upside down.

What does it all mean for the bowl picture? ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach break it all down with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP matchups, which teams helped and hurt their causes the most, and which matchup they'd most like to see.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. TCU

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: Well, that was quite the college football Saturday. All it took was the first batch of CFP rankings to get released to see a bunch of results that will reshape the playoff picture. There's one thing everyone should be able to agree on: Georgia is the unquestioned No. 1 team in the country, so let's go ahead and peg them in at the top.

For bowl projection purposes, we'll take one team from the Big Ten. I've gone back and forth for weeks between Michigan and Ohio State, but after the Buckeyes' disinterested performance against a very bad Northwestern team, Michigan gets the nod this week. After Clemson's loss to Notre Dame, the ACC is, for all intents and purposes, out of the playoff mix. Clemson was suspect anyway and only was in the conversation because of its brand and undefeated record. No more. That leaves two spots for three contenders -- 1. TCU (easy selection right now with its undefeated record); 2. a Pac-12 team (Oregon, UCLA or USC); and 3. a second SEC team (Tennessee and Ole Miss are the only one-loss teams).

Tennessee's case is compelling. It has a straightforward path to 11-1 (Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt remain), and its only loss is to the No. 1 team in the country. But that won't be enough to win its own division unless Georgia inexplicably falls apart. If Oregon runs the table, that would pose an interesting question for the committee. Take the Ducks, with 12 straight wins and a conference championship? Or Tennessee, without a conference title but with a better performance in its only loss against Georgia, which smashed Oregon? One's inherent bias will likely inform which way to lean.

It's a much more difficult path for the Ducks to get to that point (Washington, Utah, Oregon State and the possible Pac-12 title game), which is a double-edged sword. Odds are, the Ducks will lose along the way, but if they get through that stretch, their résumé will receive a huge boost. Let's just go with Oregon for now, although that presents another issue. Would the committee set up a semifinal rematch with Georgia, or avoid that and put TCU in the No. 4 spot? So many questions, so much intrigue.

Schlabach: Finally, there was some serious shake-up at the top of the college football world. Defending national champion Georgia dominated No. 1 Tennessee 27-13 in a game that wasn't that close. Notre Dame stunned No. 4 Clemson 35-14, and No. 10 LSU took down No. 6 Alabama 32-31 with a gutsy 2-point conversion in overtime being the difference. Ohio State looked so-so in tough weather conditions in a 21-7 victory at Northwestern, and No. 5 Michigan pulled away from Rutgers 52-17.

Georgia moves back to No. 1 in my rankings, followed by No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 TCU, which moved to 9-0 with a 34-24 win against Texas Tech. I'll go with Michigan as my No. 4 team for now. If there are a handful of 11-1 teams at the end of the regular season (I'm assuming the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines at home Nov. 26), Michigan might pass the eye test as the best one-loss team despite its soft nonconference schedule. Alabama's second loss didn't help Tennessee's chances, and Oregon's ugly loss to Georgia in the opener might be difficult to forget.


Matchup Schlabach is most excited to see

Ohio State-TCU: I'm guessing the CFP selection committee won't give TCU much more love after Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma each lost again Saturday. Sonny Dykes has done a fantastic job in his maiden season to get the Horned Frogs to 9-0. TCU might not have enough firepower on defense to slow down the Buckeyes, but I'm not sure Ohio State could stonewall TCU's high-flying offense either. A Fiesta Bowl matchup between the teams would be something new and would be fun to watch.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Clemson vs. LSU
Schlabach: Clemson vs. LSU

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Texas vs. Tennessee

Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Tulane
Schlabach: USC vs. Tulane

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Oregon

Matchup Bonagura is most excited to see

UCLA-Ohio State: This would be a fun Rose Bowl matchup. Ohio State coach Ryan Day played for UCLA coach Chip Kelly at New Hampshire and was later his quarterbacks coach on the staffs of the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.


Team that helped itself the most

Bonagura: Georgia should be able to handle the rest of the regular season (Mississippi State, Kentucky and Georgia Tech) with relative ease. If the Bulldogs reach the SEC title game undefeated, that's probably enough of a buffer to still reach the playoff even with a loss. Life is good in Athens.

Schlabach: After losing 15 players to the NFL draft after a 2021 campaign in which Georgia won its first national championship in 41 years, there were plenty of doubts about whether the Bulldogs could run it back. Their dominant performance against the high-flying Volunteers should take care of that. Georgia dominated on both lines and pressured quarterback Hendon Hooker throughout the contest. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett once again played very well in a big game and should start getting some serious Heisman Trophy consideration. With SEC road games left at Mississippi State and Kentucky, Georgia can clinch the SEC East with one more victory. The Bulldogs close the regular season at home against Georgia Tech on Nov. 26.


Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UAB vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Bowling Green

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: SMU vs. UAB

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. UCF

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: Rice vs. San Diego State

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Boise State

LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Marshall vs. Rice
Schlabach: Troy vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Washington vs. Mississippi State

Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Texas vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. UNLV

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee State

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Air Force vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ball State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern


Team that hurt itself the most

Bonagura: It would take a very unlikely set of circumstances for either Clemson or Alabama to get back into playoff consideration. Alabama would need LSU to fall apart (Arkansas, UAB, Texas A&M remain for the Tigers) to reach the SEC title game -- that's its only path to the playoff. Clemson is still undefeated in the ACC but to be so offensively inept against Notre Dame -- a team that lost to Stanford a few weeks ago -- makes it tough to take the Tigers seriously.

Schlabach: For only the second time in the past nine seasons, there will be a College Football Playoff without Alabama. The Crimson Tide had been playing with fire for much of the season. They had 15 penalties in a 20-19 victory at Texas. They had four turnovers in a 24-20 win against Texas A&M. They had 17 penalties in a 52-49 loss at Tennessee and then nine more in a 32-31 loss at LSU on Saturday night. It might be the most undisciplined team Nick Saban has put on the field at Alabama, and all the mistakes have probably knocked it out of the SEC West race. The Tide will have to clean things up or they might lose at Ole Miss next week.


Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Troy
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Memphis

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Houston vs. Army
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Liberty

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Appalachian State

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Air Force

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Middle Tennessee State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Southern Miss

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Liberty vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Wyoming

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: SMU vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. South Alabama

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Iowa

Dec. 28

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Houston

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. UCF
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Florida

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Utah
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Utah

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Baylor

Dec. 29

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Maryland
Schlabach: NC State vs. Purdue

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Baylor
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. USC
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. UCLA

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Purdue
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Maryland

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Oregon State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: NC State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Florida State vs. South Carolina

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Ball State

Dec. 31

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Kentucky

Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Florida
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama