So long, Alabama.
The No. 6 Crimson Tide had been in a precarious position to begin with, and the thrilling overtime loss at LSU on Saturday night essentially eliminated two-loss Alabama from this year's College Football Playoff. No, this isn't 2019, and it's a far cry from the cigar-smoking, undefeated, Joe Burrow-led national champions, but first-year LSU coach Brian Kelly has an opportunity to make a different kind of history, as the Tigers can become the first two-loss team in the CFP.
If they can beat Georgia, of course.
A clear-cut No. 1 emerged for the selection committee Saturday afternoon, as Georgia should stand alone at the top Tuesday in the second CFP ranking after its convincing 27-13 win against Tennessee. Week 10 was quite revealing in the SEC, as Georgia thoroughly outplayed the selection committee's No. 1 team to take the lead in the SEC East, and LSU now is the front-runner in the SEC West. If LSU were to run the table and win the SEC, it would have defeated Alabama and Georgia along the way, compensating for its 24-23 season-opening loss to Florida State and its 40-13 defeat to Tennessee.
That's the most realistic scenario in which the SEC can still get two teams in the playoff -- LSU hands Georgia its lone loss in the SEC championship game, and the selection committee takes both the Tigers and the runner-up Bulldogs. The possibility of the committee taking three SEC teams no longer seems realistic, as Tennessee was beaten soundly in a game that was less competitive than the final score indicated.
While there is a snowball's chance that Alabama still wins the West, it's highly unlikely LSU loses again. ESPN's FPI favors LSU to win both of its remaining SEC games, against Arkansas and Texas A&M -- unranked teams that have a combined 8-10 record. With LSU holding the tiebreaker, Alabama would have to win out and LSU would have to lose out (conference games only). If LSU wins next week and Alabama wins against Ole Miss, the Tigers are SEC West champions.
Beyond Georgia, throw some darts, see where they land. It wasn't exactly a banner day for the Big Ten, though Ohio State and Michigan both won, and Clemson flopped in spectacular fashion at Notre Dame. Clemson's loss helped the Pac-12's hopes, but TCU remains undefeated after beating five-loss Texas Tech.
Five teams entered Saturday with at least a 50% chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, and three of them -- Tennessee, Alabama and Clemson -- lost.
In addition to the separation that occurred in the SEC, here's how the rest of the Saturday results will impact who ultimately finishes in the top four:
The Big Ten's two-team dream continues to fade
In the first quarter Saturday, No. 2 Ohio State was trailing 1-8 Northwestern 7-0. No. 5 Michigan was trailing 4-5 Rutgers 17-14 at the half. The Wolverines eventually won convincingly, hammering Rutgers 52-17. Ohio State won ugly 21-7.
With Clemson losing at Notre Dame, it opens the door for both Ohio State and Michigan to be in the selection committee's top four Tuesday because they're both still undefeated, but the loser of their regular-season rivalry game is going to have a hard time making a case for a top-four finish. It helped Ohio State that Notre Dame beat Clemson, as the Buckeyes' season-opening win against the three-loss Irish is looking better. It's possible Notre Dame cracks the committee's top 25 this week. If Ohio State doesn't beat Michigan, its best wins would be against Notre Dame and Penn State.
Michigan's schedule strength was an issue in the committee meeting room last week, and that's unlikely to change without a win against the Buckeyes. Entering this week, Michigan had the worst schedule strength (81st) of any of the teams currently ranked in the CFP top 15. Without a win against Ohio State, Michigan's best wins would be against Penn State and Illinois. It didn't help Michigan or Ohio State that Illinois lost Saturday, because now the Big Ten championship game is guaranteed to feature a team with at least two losses from the West Division.
If a team doesn't win its conference title, it faces a much higher bar in the selection committee meeting room because CFP protocol states the group must deem it "unequivocally" one of the four best in the country. When comparing the loser of Ohio State-Michigan with other one-loss teams, the panel would use tiebreakers that include conference titles, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and results against common opponents. If Ohio State were to lose to Michigan and Clemson finishes as a one-loss ACC champion, the committee would consider the Buckeyes' win against the Irish, but it would be only one factor.
Clemson, ACC hanging by a thread
Clemson's convincing loss to Notre Dame on Saturday should open the No. 4 spot this week, but it also could have longer-term implications for the Tigers, even if they win the ACC. Clemson clinched the ACC's Atlantic Division on Saturday after Syracuse lost to Pitt, but the ACC is now guaranteed to have a champion with at least one loss.
That opens the door for debate, and it's possible the selection committee rewards a one-loss Pac-12 champion or Big 12 champion instead of the Tigers. Oregon's lone loss was in the season opener to defending national champion Georgia, which should be the committee's No. 1 team this week. The Ducks have won every game since in mostly convincing fashion. Oregon also has more opportunities remaining to impress the selection committee than Clemson, as the Ducks still face Utah on Nov. 19 and should face another ranked opponent in the Pac-12 title game if they make it.
And as long as TCU remains undefeated, Clemson should be concerned. A one-loss TCU could have the edge against Clemson if they both win their respective leagues, but that would be a much bigger debate (see TCU section below).
The committee rewarded Clemson in its first ranking in part because of its wins against NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest -- but the latter two suffered their third losses of the season. If one-loss North Carolina wins the ACC -- which isn't farfetched considering how Clemson has struggled this season -- the ACC would almost certainly be left out of the CFP because of the Tar Heels' weak schedule (No. 88 entering Saturday) and subpar defense (they allowed Appalachian State 61 points and surrendered 28 to Georgia State.)
TCU got some much-needed help, but faces lingering concerns
The angst about being placed behind one-loss Alabama in the committee's first ranking lasted a whopping week. The Frogs won't have to worry about it now that the Tide suffered their second loss of the season. It also helped TCU that Clemson lost at Notre Dame, as that's one less undefeated team it's looking up at. Here's the problem: TCU's wins don't look as shiny now that everyone else in the Big 12 has at least three losses.
Oklahoma State has imploded. Kansas State lost to Texas. Oklahoma is a four-loss team. Kansas is bowl-eligible! And still unranked. If TCU loses at Texas or at Baylor, there's no guarantee it would finish in the top four as a one-loss Big 12 champion, especially if two of the three one-loss Pac-12 teams stay that way until the conference title game. The good news for the Frogs is that while they might not win a résumé debate against Clemson, they have at least played consistently better than the Tigers. That didn't help them in the first ranking, though. TCU should also still be concerned about the slim chance the SEC has of two teams finishing in the top four.