<
>

College football Week 7: Storylines for battles of unbeatens, best bets

Wideout Bru McCoy and the high-powered Tennessee offense face a mighty challenge in Alabama's strong defense. Bryan Lynn/USA TODAY Sports

The 2021 regular season featured three games between teams that were each at least 5-0 -- one each in Week 6 (Penn State-Iowa), Week 7 (Georgia-Kentucky) and Week 9 (Michigan-Michigan State). We haven't had two such games in the same regular-season weekend since 2019, and we haven't had three since Week 7 in 1993, a weekend highlighted by one of the greatest Auburn-Florida games ever.

I guess I should say we hadn't had three in one week since 1993. With Alabama-Tennessee, Penn State-Michigan and Oklahoma State-TCU, we've got three unbeaten battles on the docket, plus three other ranked-versus-ranked games. All five power conferences are represented among these six matchups. This is a balanced and bonkers Saturday.

Here's everything you need to follow to get the most out of Week 7. Let's roll.

Can Tennessee end two droughts at the same time?

No. 3 Alabama at No. 6 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

While we're shouting out the 1990s, here's another date for you: Oct. 9, 1999. Current Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel took on Texas for the first time as Oklahoma's starting quarterback (the Sooners lost despite some delightful playbook shenanigans), current Alabama head coach Nick Saban led Michigan State to an upset of No. 3 Michigan and No. 6 Tennessee hosted Quincy Carter and No. 10 Georgia.

The Volunteers were cruising with a 30-7 lead in the third quarter, but a Carter-to-Jevaris Johnson touchdown pass and a Jamie Henderson pick-six suddenly cut the lead to 10 with 12 minutes left. It appeared Tennessee was on the verge of collapse, but track champion Leonard Scott returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown, and Phil Fulmer's Vols pulled out a 37-20 win.

That's the last time Tennessee both hosted and won a battle of AP top-10 teams.

On Saturday comes its best shot in a while at ending both that drought and a 15-year losing streak to Saban and Alabama.

Despite UT's 40-17 romp over LSU in Death Valley last Saturday, Bama is a touchdown favorite in this one, primarily because of the advantages it has on offense. Most of those advantages only exist, however, if Bryce Young is in the game. The Crimson Tide quarterback missed most of the past two games with a shoulder injury, and while backup Jalen Milroe made enough big plays to help the Tide win comfortably at Arkansas, he committed three turnovers and took four sacks last week against Texas A&M. Throw in some sudden woes for kicker Will Reichard, and Bama barely survived an Aggie upset bid.

Young has practiced this week, which would seem to be a pretty good sign of a return. That's good because Tennessee is much better than Texas A&M, and the atmosphere in Knoxville could be the most electric of the entire regular season.

With a healthy Young, Alabama likely would play with enough efficiency -- even despite a receiving corps that is suffering too many drops -- to stay out of dangerous downs and distances and take advantage of the fact that Tennessee gives up a few too many big plays. The Volunteers' primary hope of getting stops will come from the fact that they rank ninth in pressure rate and can really harry a passer. Of course, they rank only 65th in sack rate, and if the slippery Young escapes pressure, he will make plays.

If Milroe is behind center, however, the entire game will hinge on big run plays because the pass efficiency goes away. Granted, Milroe and running back Jahmyr Gibbs are elite home run hitters in the run game. But Tennessee's offense is good enough to counter a couple of home runs.

This is a titanic matchup when Tennessee has the ball. Some rankings:

• SP+: Bama defense second, Tennessee offense second

• Points per drive: Tennessee offense second, Bama defense fourth

• Success rate: Tennessee offense sixth, Bama defense 14th

• Red zone touchdown rate: Bama defense ninth, Tennessee offense 11th

Vols quarterback Hendon Hooker is third in Total QBR, and his skill corps is deep and diverse -- enough so that UT hasn't suffered any drop-off without injured star receiver Cedric Tillman, who is expected to miss the Saturday game.

Tennessee will need to come up with some big plays, both because it's almost impossible to dink and dunk your way to a touchdown against Alabama and because the Vols' third-down offense hasn't been amazing. Only 66% of UT's first downs come on first or second down (92nd in FBS), and in what I define as third-and-medium, they rank just 98th in conversion rate at 41%. Alabama's defense ranks sixth in preventing those conversions at 30%. Between slot man Jalin Hyatt, wideouts Bru McCoy and Ramel Keyton and maybe Hooker himself, Tennessee will need some chunk plays.

One other key factor is turnovers. They were a problem for Alabama even before the A&M game. Only 12 FBS teams have committed more fumbles than the Tide (10), and Young's interception rate has crept up from 1.3% in 2021 to 2.2%. That's on his receivers as much as him, but they're INTs all the same. The Tide won despite a minus-3 turnover margin last week; they won't get away with that in Knoxville.

Current line: Bama -7 (down from -8 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Bama by 5.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 7.7.


Is Penn State ready for the Big House?

No. 10 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan (noon ET, Fox)

For the second straight year, it's time for a balanced and unbeaten Penn State team to face a huge, sixth-game road hurdle. Last year, James Franklin's Nittany Lions went to Iowa City, lost quarterback Sean Clifford to injury and couldn't quite hold on to an early lead, falling 23-20. Clifford's injury nagged him all year as the offense fell apart and PSU finished 7-6.

Now comes a chance to right last year's wrong, albeit against a team infinitely more well-rounded than Iowa was. Michigan ranks in the SP+ top 10 in offense, defense and special teams, and the past two times Penn State visited the Big House -- when there were actually fans in the stands, anyway -- they lost by a combined 91-17. It's time for the Nittany Lions to prove they're ready for both this challenge and a run at a top-five finish.

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy played mistake-free ball at Iowa a couple of weeks ago, and when Indiana was hanging closer than expected against the Wolverines last week, McCarthy went 15-for-17 in the second half and UM pulled away. But now he must face a defense that is almost equal in quality to Iowa's and far more aggressive. Penn State ranks sixth in defensive SP+ and ninth in points allowed per drive, and while Michigan stays on schedule beautifully thanks to McCarthy and star running back Blake Corum (the Wolverines are fourth in standard downs success rate), Penn State knocks everyone off schedule (13th).

Like Tennessee, PSU blitzes a lot and pressures quarterbacks constantly (eighth in pressure rate) without actually bringing them down (98th in sack rate). They'll force McCarthy to both escape a strong rush and find open receivers against what has been college football's nastiest secondary. Joey Porter Jr. and Kalen King are asked to play tons of man coverage and have allowed a passing line of 12-for-37 for 124 yards; both have forced incompletions, through an interception or breakup, on more than 40% of the passes targeting them.

It's not outrageous to think Penn State's defense can make enough stops to win. But the offense has to come through despite what appears to be a severe matchup disadvantage in the run-blocking department. Nicholas Singleton is enjoying a wildly all-or-nothing freshman campaign -- among 143 FBS players with at least 60 carries, he ranks fifth in yards per carry (7.3) but only 111th in first downs per carry (21%) -- and PSU ranks a ghastly 102nd in rushing success rate. The inefficiency is putting a lot on Clifford's shoulders. Against a Michigan defense that stops the run well and prevents big plays better than almost anyone in the country, Clifford might have to make a lot of big throws on second- or third-and-long.

He also might have to scramble. Clifford's mobility has been a strength in previous seasons, but this year he has been making a concerted effort to remain in the pocket, make quick throws and avoid taking as many hits. In five games, he has rushed only 26 times, mostly in short-yardage situations. But he might have to take the regulator off in this one for PSU to have a chance.

Michigan labored to get past the best team it has faced to date (34-27 over a Maryland squad that ranks 22nd in SP+). Penn State could have a shot at an upset, but only if Clifford is saved a bit, or saves himself, from bad downs and distances.

Current line: Michigan -7 (down from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 12.2 | FPI projection: Michigan by 8.6.


Haymaker time in Fort Worth

No. 8 Oklahoma State at No. 13 TCU (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN app)

In many ways, Oklahoma State and TCU are the same program. Over the past eight seasons, they have split their eight meetings, and they are separated by just 2.6 adjusted points per game in terms of average SP+ ratings. OSU has had an edge of late -- the Cowboys have won 19 of their past 21 games, while TCU hasn't won more than seven games in a season since 2017 -- but this has been a pretty even rivalry since the Horned Frogs entered the Big 12 in 2012.

Their matchups sometimes aren't that even, however. Only three of the past 10 have been decided by one score, and five have been decided by 20 or more points. When one of these teams finds an advantage, it exploits it ruthlessly.

That might never be truer than in 2022. OSU and TCU are both unbeaten and boast two of the most dangerous offenses in the country. Both have scored at least 36 points in every game. And really, the teams bring only one genuine weakness into the game: Their defenses are aggressive and efficient ... and give up far too many big plays. OSU allows 2.2 gains per game of 30-plus yards (95th in FBS) and TCU allows 2.4 (108th). TCU almost never misses tackles, OSU creates lots of negative plays and three-and-outs, and both play some of the most frequent and physical man coverage in the country. But these teams have each allowed at least 24 points in three of five games.

It would almost be disappointing, then, if this game didn't unfold like an old-school Big 12 track meet. This conference has been home to some of the most interesting and innovative defenses in the FBS over the past few years, but forget all that and give us some points!

Max Duggan has certainly done his part. We always like to think player development is a linear thing -- a guy gets a little better with each game and season -- but it almost never actually works that way. There are setbacks and slumps.

For TCU's stalwart quarterback, though? It's been almost perfectly linear.

• 2019: 53% completion rate, 11.5 yards per completion, 57th in Total QBR

• 2020: 61% completion rate, 12.3 yards per completion, 40th in Total QBR

• 2021: 64% completion rate, 14.1 yards per completion, 51st in Total QBR

• 2022: 73% completion rate, 14.0 yards per completion, fifth in Total QBR

Duggan has taken perfectly to the offense first-year head coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley introduced to him; having one of the most dynamic run games in the country and an almost penalty-free offensive line hasn't hurt.

For Oklahoma State's Spencer Sanders, on the other hand, almost nothing has been linear. He has had great games and terrible games, and he has seen just about everything a quarterback can see over four seasons. He's playing some of the cleanest ball of his career (12 touchdowns, two interceptions), and he's as devastating as anyone at a good, old QB draw. He's got reliable slot weapons in Brennan Presley and John Paul Richardson, a physical back in Dominic Richardson and two thrilling deep threats in Braydon Johnson and Bryson Green.

On paper, this game could not be closer. SP+ projects an average score of Oklahoma State 32.20, TCU 32.19. But both recent history and these teams' mano y mano tendencies suggest that if one team gets on top, it might keep landing heavy shots for a while. The range of potential outcomes is vast, but hopefully we get a classic in the most important Big 12 game of the season to date.

Current line: TCU -4 (up from -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.01 | FPI projection: TCU by 2.6.


The Pac-12 game of the year (until next week)

No. 7 USC at No. 20 Utah (8 p.m. ET, Fox)

The energy is coming back to the college football town of Los Angeles. The Chip Kelly era at UCLA started slowly, but his Bruins have won 14 of their past 18 games and have charged to 11th in the AP poll. At USC, Lincoln Riley didn't need nearly as long. The first-year head coach has led the Trojans to a 6-0 start with an offense full of transplants and a defense that relied a little too heavily on turnovers early on but is rounding into disruptive form, especially up front.

Now comes what looked at the beginning of the season to be USC's first particularly stiff test. Utah has disappointed a bit -- a sleeper CFP contender at the beginning of the season, the Utes dropped road games at Florida and UCLA -- but they've exceeded SP+ projections by an average of 12 points per game at home. Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the hardest places in the country to play, and while the Trojans handled a lightly attended road trip to Stanford just fine, they only barely survived a hostile environment at Oregon State with their unbeaten record intact.

Utah seems particularly well equipped to exploit what has been USC's biggest weakness to date: run defense. The Trojans rank a dismal 108th in rushing success rate allowed, and while the Utes lack explosiveness -- something that cost them in both road losses -- they're 18th in rushing success rate. Backs Tavion Thomas, Jaylon Glover and Micah Bernard keep quarterback Cam Rising on schedule.

Utah also seems poised to fend off USC's biggest defensive strength. Without blitzing, USC ranks seventh in FBS in sack rate thanks to the work of Tuli Tuipulotu (seven sacks) & Co. But what Utah lacks in explosiveness, it makes up for with sharp, quick passing. Rising is completing 69% of his throws, and his receivers have dropped just five passes all season. If the Utes can fend off pressure with steady pitches and catches, they will both control field position and score quite a few points.

USC's offense can score, too, however. Quarterback Caleb Williams and the Trojans are sixth in both points and yards per drive; they stay on schedule (14th in success rate) and rarely move backward or go three-and-out. Utah's pass defense is among the best USC has faced, and the Utes' pass rush could start to put some hits on Williams, who is a master of drifting out of the pocket, buying time and waiting for receivers to get open. But that's only if USC must pass. Riley is more than happy to lean on the run game if he needs to, and Travis Dye and Austin Jones are combining for 131 rushing yards per game at 6.5 yards per carry. Utah's run defense is mediocre at best, and if USC is still unbeaten as of Sunday morning, it's likely to be because the Trojans ran the ball better than the Utes.

Current line: Utah -3.5 (down from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Utah by 6.8 | FPI projection: Utah by 4.1.


An ACC Atlantic eliminator in the former Carrier Dome

No. 15 NC State at No. 18 Syracuse (3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN and ESPN app)

Now for maybe the least likely huge game of the week. Clemson might once again be in control of the ACC Atlantic, but if the Tigers stumble, the winner of this one could be best prepared to take advantage.

NC State has wobbled under heavy expectations -- the Wolfpack were 13th in the preseason AP poll, their highest start ever -- but is still 5-1 despite a disappointing offense. The Pack lost a potential tiebreaker with Clemson with a 30-20 road loss, but they're experienced and they have a brilliant and proven defense to lean on.

Unbeaten Syracuse, meanwhile, is a hell of a story. The Orange won just 11 games from 2019 to 2021, and head coach Dino Babers entered 2022 high on everyone's hot seat list. But an experienced defense has surged, and new blood on the offensive coaching staff has produced a huge turnaround. The Orange haven't quite earned the faith of the advanced stats yet, in part because of a weak schedule (they've played just one team ranked better than 60th in SP+), but they're 15th in points per drive and 18th in points allowed per drive, and they made huge late plays in tight wins over both Purdue and Virginia.

The Orange offense is as efficient as anyone's, thanks primarily to running back Sean Tucker, who is averaging 146 combined rushing and receiving yards per game. But they've played only one defense that ranks higher than 72nd in defensive SP+; NC State ranks 12th. The Pack rank ninth in success rate allowed, and they're equally efficient against run and pass. Like Oklahoma State and TCU above, they have a bit of a big-play problem, but Syracuse doesn't make a ton of those. For that reason, receiver Oronde Gadsden II might be the most important player in the game. He came up big against both Purdue and Virginia (combined: 13 catches, 219 yards, two scores), and his emergence makes it a lot harder to contain Tucker.

The game could also hinge on how well the Wolfpack run the ball. Quarterback Devin Leary is laboring through a dreadfully mediocre season -- he ranks 83rd in Total QBR, and State ranks 86th in passing success rate -- and he's questionable to play after injuring his shoulder against Florida State.

Only one of Leary's top six receiving options averages even 7 yards per target, and Syracuse's pass defense has been top-notch thus far. The run defense is vulnerable, however. Backs Jordan Houston and Demie Sumo-Karngbaye are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry against power-conference defenses, but 54% of State's carries gain at least 4 yards (11th in the FBS). That hints at a total lack of explosiveness, but it also gives the Pack a way to put either Leary or backup Jack Chambers in more comfortable passing situations. Leary's injury has helped push the line in Syracuse's favor, and the Orange will have an excellent shot at moving to 6-0 if NC State can't run the ball.

Current line: Syracuse -3.5 (up from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: NC State by 3.7 | FPI projection: Syracuse by 3.0.


My favorite bets

Each week I share five bets I like, and after a late-September funk, we're 8-2 over the past two weeks and 17-12-1 overall (58%). Let's keep the good times rolling!

Toledo (-7.5) vs. Kent State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+). Since MAC play started, SP+ has had a good read on Kent State (it has been within 2 points in each of the past two games) and has underestimated Toledo by about 12 points per game. So when it gives the Rockets a 16.8-point overall advantage, more than double the line, that seems like an awfully strong opportunity.

Tulane (-12) at South Florida (4 p.m. ET, ESPNU). USF is one of the most confusing teams in the country. The Bulls have lost to two SP+ top-40 teams by a combined seven points, but against three lower-ranked teams they've lost by an average of 29. They have a delightful run game, but Tulane has one of the best run defenses in the Group of 5, and the 5-1 Green Wave should torch USF's shaky pass defense.

James Madison at Georgia Southern: Under 67 points (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+). I missed by picking the under on Georgia State-Georgia Southern last week, but I'm dipping into the same well again -- of the 11 games these teams have played, eight have produced 67 or fewer points. JMU's defense is the best the Eagles have faced, and SP+ projects something close to a 34-24 JMU win.

Arizona at Washington: Under 73 points (5:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12). The bloom has come off the rose for Washington. After a lovely 4-0 start, the Huskies fell to UCLA (forgivable) and Arizona State (less so). Still, last week was the first time all year that a UW game topped 73 points, and only one Arizona game has. This one should be played at close to an average tempo, so it won't take too many stops to keep the total under such a high number.

UNLV (+10) vs. Air Force (10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN). I've stepped on this rake before, but I'm going to try it again. SP+ doesn't know that UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield is hurt when it projects the Rebels to lose by only 4.5 points, but backup Cameron Friel was solid during a lost cause against San Jose State last week, and Air Force's pass defense is awfully shaky. I say Friel plays well, and UNLV stays within single digits.


Week 7 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Navy at SMU (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Navy is showing signs of life -- the Middies have overachieved against the spread by 27 points per game over the past three weeks and laid the hammer down against Tulsa last week -- while SMU is reeling in an equal way. I think SMU is still the better team, but trends are pushing against that. Current line: SMU -12.5 (up from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: SMU by 17.1 | FPI projection: SMU by 15.2.

Early Saturday

No. 19 Kansas at Oklahoma (noon ET, ESPN2). Now for a fun, rousing game of "OK, Oklahoma has definitely hit rock bottom now, right?" The books (and computers) think it has, and the injury to Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels has pushed the line further up, but ... do you feel comfortable betting on the Sooners right now? Current line: OU -9 (up from -7 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 9.4 | FPI projection: OU by 6.9.

Iowa State at No. 23 Texas (noon ET, ABC). Texas has won over the books and computers -- fourth in FPI, fifth in SP+ -- and now the Longhorns must win a trap game before road trips to Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Iowa State's defense is good enough to make things interesting if UT isn't dialed in. Current line: Texas -16.5 (up from -14 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Horns by 17.7 | FPI projection: UT by 17.8.

Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois (noon ET, BTN). A matchup with major Big Ten West implications, just as we all predicted before the season, right? Running back Mo Ibrahim is back for Minnesota, and that could make a huge difference, but this feels like a "first to 14 points wins" type of game. Current line: Minnesota -6.5 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 4.7 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 4.5.

Auburn at No. 9 Ole Miss (noon ET, ESPN). Auburn's defense is good enough to make things awkward for favorites for a while, and the offense is iffy enough to make sure the Tigers lose by a good amount anyway. Current line: Rebels -14.5 (down from -15.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 17.0 | FPI projection: Rebels by 14.9.

UConn at Ball State (2 p.m. ET, ESPN3). We've gotten to the "Wait, is [insert downtrodden team] going to make a bowl??" period of the season, and ... wait, is UConn going to make a bowl?? Probably not. The Huskies are 3-4 with a 21% chance of reaching 6-6, per SP+, but they're 3-1 against teams ranked 87th or worse in SP+ and four of their final five opponents fit that description. Current line: BSU -9.5 (down from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: BSU by 7.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 7.7.

Saturday afternoon

Arkansas at BYU (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). This game has lost some luster -- both teams are unranked after peaking at 10th and 12th, respectively, in the AP poll -- but it will still be super-physical, and it could still feature loads of big plays. And Arkansas' KJ Jefferson should be healthy enough to return to action. Current line: Hogs -1.5 (flipped from BYU -2 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Hogs by 0.8 | FPI projection: BYU by 4.9.

No. 25 James Madison at Georgia Southern (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+). The mind reels at how quickly FBS newcomer James Madison has worked its way toward the top of one of the country's best Group of 5 conferences. But trips to Statesboro have ruined teams' plans before. Can quarterback Todd Centeio and the Dukes keep things rolling? Current line: JMU -12 (up from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: JMU by 9.9 | FPI projection: JMU by 5.7.

Saturday evening

No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET, SECN). You never know when you'll have to find out if your backup quarterback is up to snuff. For Kentucky, that moment came with Kaiya Sheron against South Carolina last week, and the Wildcats failed. But star Will Levis should return, and if he's able to throw like he normally throws, this game feels awfully even. Current line: MSU -4 (down from -6 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UK by 0.5 | FPI projection: MSU by 3.4.

No. 4 Clemson at Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Florida State started 4-0 but has lost two in a row. The Noles are desperate, and the home crowd will be too. Is that enough to get past a Clemson team that doesn't really seem elite at anything but is pretty good at everything? Current line: Clemson -3.5 (down from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 4.1 | FPI projection: Clemson by 8.3.

LSU at Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). Think of the silliest, most improbable thing that can happen in a rivalry game. LSU-Florida can produce it. Current line: Florida -2.5 (down from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: LSU by 0.3 | FPI projection: LSU by 4.5.

Stanford at Notre Dame (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC). Oof, Stanford. The Cardinal suffered as heartbreaking a loss as you can imagine against Oregon State last week and have lost 11 straight to power-conference opponents. It's probably a bit much to ask to end that streak against a Fighting Irish team that is getting its act together. Current line: Irish -17 (up from -15 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 15.4 | FPI projection: Irish by 19.0.

Washington State at Oregon State (8 p.m. ET, Pac-12). This game needs to be about two hours later to fulfill its Pac-12 After Dark potential. Regardless, both teams are spirited and fun. This should be a brawl. Current line: OSU -3.5 (up from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Wazzu by 0.1 | FPI projection: OSU by 4.3.

Saturday night

San Jose State at Fresno State (10:45 p.m. ET, FS1). San Jose State has stormed to the front of the MWC West, but it isn't too late for preseason favorite Fresno State to sort itself out and get back into the race. It will probably be too late next week, however, if the Bulldogs don't win this one. Current line: SJSU -8.5 (up from -5.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Fresno State by 4.1 | FPI projection: SJSU by 2.7.


Smaller-school showcase

Let's once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. We usually focus on three games, but we're doing just two this week because of how big they are. It's hard to top No. 1 vs. No. 2 at one level and No. 1 vs. No. 3 at another.

Div. II: No. 2 Grand Valley State at No. 1 Ferris State (2 p.m. ET, local streaming). A week after surviving a stiff test from Saginaw Valley State, defending national champ Ferris State plays in what might be the best rivalry game in Division II. Grand Valley has already beaten three ranked teams with a big-play faucet for an offense and a defense that erases opposing run games. Can Caleb Murphy and a relentless Ferris State defense maintain an edge?

FCS: No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 1 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+). After losing 12 of 14 in the Dakota Marker rivalry, SDSU has won two in a row. The Jackrabbits have rounded into form nicely after a slow offensive start too. NDSU, however? Just sort of getting by. The Bison, winners of nine of the past 11 FCS titles, nearly lost at Indiana State last week and haven't yet found fifth gear. Now would be a really good time to do so.