No one wants to leave the party. I get it. Week 6 of the college football season cut the roster of unbeaten teams from 16 ... to 15. TCU beat Kansas in a "someone has to leave the list" game, and that was it. Alabama, Oklahoma State and Coastal Carolina all flirted with doom, and Michigan considered it for a half against Indiana, but they all fended off upset bids. The Stupendous 16 sank only to a Fabulous 15.
Things get a little harsher in what is shaping up to be a spectacular Week 7. In Alabama-Tennessee, Oklahoma State-TCU and Penn State-Michigan, we get three battles of unbeatens. Plus, USC heads to Utah to face a wounded and angry Utes team, and Syracuse is a home underdog against NC State. We're guaranteed to lose at least three members of the Fabulous 15, but can the rest hold steady?
Let's rank college football's unbeatens!
15. Coastal Carolina
SP+ and FPI rankings: 46th and 77th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 4.6% (last week: 2.2%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated ULM 28-21. The game started as a track meet (ULM scored TDs on its first two drives, Coastal on its first three) and ended as a defensive slog, but Jamey Chadwell's Chanticleers continued to figure out ways not to lose.
Week 7 opponent: Old Dominion (SP+ win probability: 83%).
Why they aren't ranked higher: ULM is 106th in SP+, and Coastal won by a touchdown. Gardner-Webb was 84th in last week's FCS SP+ rankings, and Coastal won by 4 points. This is a rebuilding year of sorts for the Chants, and it's Chadwell's least dominant team since 2019. The Chants could remain on this list for a while longer, mind you -- they're projected favorites over ODU this week, then they've got a bye before a trip to Marshall -- and their ability to grind out wins certainly says positive things about the program's foundation and culture. But they're easily the least proven team on the list.
14. Syracuse
SP+ and FPI rankings: 57th and 32nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.3% (last week: 0.1%)
What they did in Week 6: idle. Really, you could say the Orange have been idle for two straight weeks, including their easy cruise over Wagner of the FCS on Oct. 1.
Week 7 opponent: NC State (SP+ win probability: 42%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: Trust, I guess? Dino Babers' Orange have played high-level ball on both offense and defense at different points of the season, and they beat a rock solid Purdue team Sept. 17. But quarterback Garrett Shrader takes a lot of hits (especially considering how few big plays the Orange make in the passing game), and the Orange are iffy in the red zone on both offense and defense.
But the good thing about this list is, all you have to do to rise is keep winning. Their next six opponents all rank between 13th and 42nd in SP+, so if they're for real, we'll know.
Why they aren't ranked lower: Offensive coordinator Robert Anae and quarterbacks coach Jason Beck have transformed Shrader and this offense, and receiver Oronde Gadsden II is emerging as a beautiful complement to star back Sean Tucker. There's solid upside here.
13. James Madison
SP+ and FPI rankings: 37th and 55th
Odds of reaching 11-0, per SP+: 11.0% (last week: 11.0%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Arkansas State 42-20. The host Red Wolves got to within 28-20 in the fourth quarter, and the Dukes immediately scored twice to put the game away.
Week 7 opponent: at Georgia Southern (SP+ win probability: 72%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: Disbelief! I wrote very confident words about JMU heading into the season, and I still would never have guessed they would start 5-0. They unleashed a ferocious comeback on Appalachian State, and they've beaten four other opponents by an average of 47-12. They are allowing more big plays than they're making, but that's almost the only available critique. They've exceeded all expectations.
Why they aren't ranked lower: This is an efficiency machine. The Dukes rank 11th in offensive success rate and second in success rate allowed. Their top-line playmakers -- QB Todd Centeio, RB Percy Agyei-Obese, WR Kris Thornton, DT Jamare Edwards, LB Taurus Jones -- are as good as anyone's in a very good Sun Belt. We'll find out about their depth in the coming weeks, but if they were eligible, they'd be the Sun Belt title favorites. They were in FCS last season!
12. USC
SP+ and FPI rankings: 24th and 10th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 4.6% (last week: 2.9%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Washington State 30-14. A mature and workmanlike effort from a team that is still young and untested.
Week 7 opponent: at Utah (SP+ win probability: 35%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: The first three teams on this list are borderline top-25 teams or worse. Now we quickly move into the "strong case for top 10" section of teams. And really, USC and the next two teams on the list are almost exactly the same.
Points scored per drive: TCU fifth, USC sixth, UCLA 10th
Points allowed per drive: USC 51st, UCLA 52nd, TCU 59th
Offensive SP+: UCLA third, TCU ninth, USC 15th
Defensive SP+: UCLA 48th, USC 50th, TCU 60th
The Trojans have played zero SP+ top-40 teams thus far, TCU has beaten one, and UCLA has beaten two in two weeks.
Why they aren't ranked lower: The upside is still immense. Caleb Williams is 11th in Total QBR, the skill corps is terrifying, and Tuli Tuipulotu, Solomon Byrd & Co. are bringing increasing disruption up front on an improving defense. The Trojans have obvious top-five potential if they continue to gel.
11. TCU
SP+ and FPI rankings: 23rd and 18th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.8% (last week: 0.9%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Kansas 38-31. The Horned Frogs overcame a raucous environment and KU's salty backup quarterback, Jason Bean, to survive and advance. One of the most delightful games of the week.
Week 7 opponent: Oklahoma State (SP+ win probability: 50%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: The defense likes giving up big plays almost as much as the offense likes making them. The Frogs are allowing 2.4 gains per game of 30-plus yards (108th in FBS), and while they've faced three straight big-play offenses, there are more left on the schedule. The track meets will probably continue.
Why they aren't ranked lower: They look great with track shoes on! TCU ranks first nationally in yards per play, ahead of even Ohio State. Quarterback Max Duggan is currently fifth in Total QBR, and the combination of backs Kendre Miller, Emari Demercado and Emani Bailey is averaging 7.3 yards per carry. They're ridiculously dangerous, and they'll need to continue to be, considering every remaining opponent on the schedule is in the SP+ top 50. This week's visit from Oklahoma State is going to be incredible.
10. UCLA
SP+ and FPI rankings: 8th and 30th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 16.8% (last week: 6.5%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Utah 42-32. With Utah laboring to keep up, the Bruins scored two touchdowns in two minutes in the fourth quarter to go up 17 points and cruised from there.
Week 7 opponent: idle
Why they aren't ranked higher: Same as TCU -- the defense isn't trustworthy. The Bruins hung 40-plus on both Washington and Utah, winning both games as home underdogs, but they allowed at least 30 in both games too. New defensive coordinator Bill McGovern has improved things, but only so much.
Why they aren't ranked lower: We keep underestimating the Bruins, and they keep shoving it in our faces. They were indeed home underdogs against both the Huskies and Utes and won by a combined 18 points. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Zach Charbonnet and this ridiculous offense are giving them a 1-in-6 chance of getting to 12-0, and they keep raising their game when they need to. This is a fast and experienced team. Coach Chip Kelly showed minimal progress over his first three seasons in town (record: 10-21), but the Bruins are 14-4 since the start of 2021.
9. Oklahoma State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 17th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5% (last week: 0.9%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Texas Tech 41-31. Down 8 late in the third quarter, the Cowboys made six straight stops and finished the game on an 18-0 run.
Week 7 opponent: at TCU (SP+ win probability: 50%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: Stop me if you've heard this before, but I don't trust the defense. The Pokes can shut down the run and create negative plays, but an aggressive secondary is getting punished far more than a year ago, and that will probably be an issue over the next two weeks as OSU faces TCU (ninth in offensive SP+) and Texas (seventh).
Why they aren't ranked lower: This is a fast and mature football team. Spencer Sanders is combining pass efficiency (25th in passing success rate) with oft-successful long bombs to Braydon Johnson and Bryson Green, and an ultra-experienced defensive line will render most teams one-dimensional. As with TCU, every remaining OSU opponent ranks in the SP+ top 50, and that's probably too much to handle, but the Cowboys are ahead of where they were this time last year. They could find another gear defensively.
8. Penn State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 14th and 12th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.9% (last week: 1.0%)
What they did in Week 6: idle. They got some rest before Saturday's huge trip to Michigan.
Week 7 opponent: at Michigan (SP+ win probability: 24%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: The line of scrimmage is still a concern. The Nittany Lions rank 102nd in rushing success rate on offense and 51st on defense, and their next three opponents -- Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State -- are built to punish that severely.
Why they aren't ranked lower: Few teams had a better early opportunity to prove their maturity than James Franklin's team, which beat Purdue and destroyed Auburn, both on the road, in the season's first three weeks. Sean Clifford has played safe and steady ball, freshmen Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are averaging 6.4 yards per carry between them (despite inefficiency), and the defense is, well, a prototypically disruptive Manny Diaz unit -- 10th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), eighth in pressure rate and capable of playing some of the nastiest man defense in the country. If you can't beat PSU in the trenches, you can't beat PSU.
7. Ole Miss
SP+ and FPI rankings: 6th and 8th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 6.4% (last week: 3.0%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Vanderbilt 52-28. The Rebels did what they do: fall asleep for a bit, then put games away with quick scoring drives. Down 20-10 to a feisty (and limited) Commodores squad, they scored 28 points in nine minutes to put the game away. Then they kept scoring from there.
Week 7 opponent: Auburn (SP+ win probability: 84%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: The droughts are concerning. The Rebels scored 21 points against Troy in 11 minutes and 28 against Tulsa in 13, but managed just 14 total points in those games' other 96 minutes. They scored 14 points on Kentucky in six minutes and 8 in the other 54. They scored just 10 in the first 29 minutes against Vandy. Against better teams, you don't get away with that.
Why they aren't ranked lower: The surges are exhilarating! Jonathan Mingo is maybe the nation's best deep threat, Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans are averaging 6.0 yards per carry (over 35 carries per game), and teams can't feel safe about having put the Rebels away unless they're up 35 in the fourth quarter.
6. Clemson
SP+ and FPI rankings: 13th and 6th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 12.1% (last week: 9.5%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Boston College 31-3. The Tigers' offense took its time getting going, but the defense never gave a terrible BC offense hope.
Week 7 opponent: at Florida State (SP+ win probability: 59%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: The Tigers are in an interesting place -- clearly good, far more well-rounded than last season, devoid of any killer weaknesses ... but not really elite at anything either. The defensive line isn't as disruptive as I thought it would be, the secondary remains passive, and while the offense has improved dramatically, it's not really better than anyone else's in this list's top 10. The ACC is weak enough that shortcomings might not matter, but they would in a hypothetical CFP trip.
Why they aren't ranked lower: We might not know how teams like Tennessee, Ole Miss or Penn State will respond to high-pressure, high-stakes moments, but the Tigers have been inundated with those through the years, and Dabo Swinney is the best close-game coach in college football. (Clemson's record in one-score finishes since 2011: 33-7.) Of the teams outside the top three, the Tigers don't have the highest ceiling, but they might have the highest floor.
5. Tennessee
SP+ and FPI rankings: 7th and 7th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 4.3% (last week: 1.6%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated LSU 40-13. Early miscues doomed the host Tigers, but the Vols offered them no hope, racing out to a 20-0 lead and never allowing them to get closer than 13 points.
Week 7 opponent: Alabama (SP+ win probability: 38%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: Honestly, pass defense is the single remaining question I have about the Vols. They run efficiently, they pass incredibly well (especially considering their most celebrated receiver, Cedric Tillman, has been hurt), they invade the line of scrimmage on defense and they're great in the red zone and good on special teams. But they're 73rd in passing success rate allowed and 84th in completion rate allowed. The teams above them don't have a key weakness that pronounced.
Why they aren't ranked lower: The offense might be second to only Ohio State's at this point, and the defense has thus far held up its end of the bargain for all but a couple of quarters. The Vols' confidence oozes off the television screen. (And if they lose by 49 to Bama this weekend, forget I wrote any of this.)
4. Michigan
SP+ and FPI rankings: 4th and 4th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 16.7% (last week: 13.0%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Indiana 31-10. Tied at 10-10 after a dreary first half, the Wolverines found their footing and pulled away. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was 15-for-17 for 175 yards after halftime.
Week 7 opponent: Penn State (SP+ win probability: 76%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: Like Ole Miss, the Wolverines have been reliant on runs -- 24-6 vs. Maryland (in a 7-point win), 20-0 vs. Iowa, 21-0 vs. Indiana -- to overcome some droughts in form.
Why they aren't ranked lower: A team that has won 18 of its past 20 games -- with one of the losses coming to the team right above it here -- earns a certain level of trust. Beyond that, though, the Wolverines are ridiculously well-rounded. Michigan currently ranks ninth in defensive SP+, eighth on offense and third in special teams. New starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy and new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter have come through thus far, the new pass rush is awesome and running back Blake Corum is one of the best skill players in the country. This is an awesome football team.
3. Georgia
SP+ and FPI rankings: 3rd and 3rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 30.8% (last week: 24.9%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Auburn 42-10. The Dawgs once again took their time finding fifth gear but found it after halftime, turning a 14-3 slog into a 35-3 romp in about 11 minutes.
Week 7 opponent: Vanderbilt (SP+ win probability: 99%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: You can't really go wrong ranking these top three teams in any order, but Georgia's slow starts and a total lack of big-play passing -- Stetson Bennett over the past three games: 10.8 yards per completion -- do concern me a bit. The Dawgs sure did turn it on against Auburn in the second half, though.
Why they aren't ranked lower: Even without passing explosiveness, Georgia still has so many ways to beat you. The Dawgs came back against Missouri with tight ends and nearly perfect third-down defense. They distanced themselves from Auburn with a nasty run game (301 non-sack yards and six touchdowns) and an increasingly overwhelming secondary. They have had vulnerable moments of late, but they've got even Michigan topped from a well-roundedness standpoint: They're third in defensive SP+, fifth on offense and fifth in special teams.
2. Alabama
SP+ and FPI rankings: 2nd and 1st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 21.8% (last week: 22.5%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Texas A&M 24-20. With the injured Bryce Young out, backup Jalen Milroe looked like, well, a backup -- four sacks, three turnovers -- and it nearly cost the Crimson Tide dearly, as did a pair of missed field goals. But they survived.
Week 7 opponent: at Tennessee (SP+ win probability: 62%)
Why they aren't ranked higher: I went back and forth on the top two spots. If Young were healthy, Bama would have probably handled A&M comfortably, and he should be healthy again soon. So we'll just say that ranking Ohio State first is more of a reflection of Ohio State than Bama at the moment.
Why they aren't ranked lower: They still might have the two best players in college football (Young and outside linebacker Will Anderson Jr.), and per SP+ they've got the fourth-best offense and second-best defense in the land. They played with fire with Young at Texas and without Young against A&M, but the secondary has come around quickly, and once Young is healthy the only possible weakness is the offensive line. But will Young be close enough to 100 percent Saturday to take down Tennessee?
1. Ohio State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 1st and 2nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 34.6% (last week: 27.2%)
What they did in Week 6: defeated Michigan State 49-20. The host Spartans snared an early pick-six and stayed within striking distance as long as possible, but as most do against Ohio State, eventually succumbed to a deluge of big plays.
Week 7 opponent: idle
Why they aren't ranked lower: Ryan Day's Buckeyes moved to No. 1 in SP+ following Bama's near loss to A&M, but here's the deal: I'm not sure SP+ has caught up to them yet. After a wobbly start, they've overachieved SP+ projections by an average of 15.8 points over the past four games, and the offense, a distant No. 1 overall, hasn't even had its two biggest stars (running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba) healthy at the same time yet!
Granted, Jim Knowles' renovated defense hasn't faced a top-30 offense yet and won't until the last two games of the year (Maryland and Michigan), so we might not know absolutely everything we need to know for a while. But Ohio State is very good and seems to be getting better.