Alabama, still without injured quarterback Bryce Young, survived a down-to-the-last-second thriller against Texas A&M on Saturday, avoiding a potential shake-up in the top four of the College Football Playoff chase.
With Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia each remaining undefeated, the playoff plotline centers around No. 4, and while there are certainly front-runners, there's no shortage of teams that could make a case in the second half of the season. If the SEC has two teams finish in the top four and the Big Ten champion is in, the selection committee's debate for the fourth spot could be controversial.
Tennessee is 5-0 for the first time since 2016. Ole Miss is 6-0 for only the second time in the past 50 seasons. And USC isn't the only team in L.A. that's undefeated. Who will the committee be taking seriously come late November?
It will consider strength of schedule, common opponents, head-to-head results, injuries to key players and conference championships. One statistic that has had a strong correlation to the top four throughout the CFP era has been ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR) metric, which calculates how difficult it is for an average top 25 team to achieve the same record. According to ESPN's Stats & Information, 24 of 28 playoff participants were in the top 4 in Strength of Record entering Selection Day. The SEC currently boasts three of the four best resumes in the country in No. 1 Alabama (an 18% chance an average top 25 team would achieve the same 6-0 record), No. 2 Tennessee (35% chance) and No. 4 Georgia (37% chance).
Considering those factors, there are 10 teams that could make a case for that one final coveted spot, ranked in order of the best chance to finish No. 4:
Clemson (6-0)
Saturday's score: Clemson 31, Boston College 3
SOR entering the game: No. 5
SOS entering the game: No. 79
Remaining SOS: No. 52
Best win: Oct. 1 vs. NC State. Yes, the road win at Wake Forest was impressive, but Clemson played better against the Wolfpack, putting together a more complete performance against a second straight ranked Atlantic Division opponent.
What it needs to finish in the top four: Finish as a one-loss or undefeated ACC champion and hope Notre Dame and South Carolina continue to win. If Clemson can win at Notre Dame and beat rival South Carolina in the regular-season finale -- and both of those teams finish above .500 and/or in the CFP top 25 -- the Tigers will separate themselves from multiple other contenders on this list on Selection Day. If Clemson were to lose at Florida State on Saturday but still win the ACC, those nonconference games will be critical if the Tigers are in a debate with another one-loss Power 5 conference champion.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Clemson has a 48.3% chance to reach the CFP.
Playoff status: Contender. Clemson entered Saturday's game against BC scoring points on 56% of its offensive drives, 11th-best in the FBS. Clemson has had a fearsome defensive front, and its rushing defense has been far better than its passing defense. The Tigers entered Week 6 ranked No. 2 in the country, allowing just 70.2 rushing yards per game. That defense combined with the maturation of quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has repositioned Clemson as the ACC's best playoff hope again.
Michigan (6-0)
Saturday's score: Michigan 31, Indiana 10
SOR entering the game: No. 8
SOS entering the game: No. 96
Remaining SOS: No. 20
Best win: Oct. 1 at Iowa. Michigan has yet to beat a ranked opponent, but it avoided stumbling in its first road game and conference opener in what has typically been an unforgiving venue to the Wolverines.
What it needs to finish in the top four: A Big Ten title. Because the Wolverines' nonconference schedule was so weak (Colorado State, Hawai'i, UConn), it will be difficult for the selection committee to justify a semifinal spot without Michigan winning the Big Ten. It's likely Penn State and Ohio State are the only ranked opponents Michigan faces during the regular season. If Michigan loses one of those games and doesn't win the East, it will have to win a debate against the Big 12, Pac-12 and/or ACC champions. The odds continue to shrink if the SEC has two teams in again, and the committee would at least consider the head-to-head loss in its final ranking.
If Michigan loses Saturday to Penn State, its playoff hopes will nose dive because the Wolverines will then need to win out and hope for a three-way tie with Ohio State or that PSU loses twice because the Nittany Lions will own the head-to-head tiebreaker. While it's possible Michigan runs the table and punctuates its regular season with a win against rival Ohio State, it's unlikely Penn State loses twice. ESPN's FPI gives Ohio State a 77.9% chance to beat PSU on Oct. 29, but favors the Nittany Lions in each of their remaining games against Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland and Michigan State.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Michigan has a 38.2% chance to reach the CFP.
Playoff status: Contender. Michigan is getting it done on both sides of the ball. Entering Saturday, the Wolverines had allowed 0.97 points per drive, the seventh fewest in FBS. Offensively, Michigan is scoring points on 59% of its drives, fifth-best entering Saturday. The Wolverines' defense is top 15 in the nation in both passing yards allowed (157.8) and rushing yards allowed per game (94.2).
USC (6-0)
Saturday's score: USC 30, Washington State 14
SOR entering the game: No. 10
SOS entering the game: No. 103
Remaining SOS: No. 43
Best win: Saturday vs. Washington State. This was one of the more complete games the Trojans have played, and while the Cougars weren't ranked, they were still a respectable 4-1 team.
What it needs to finish in the top four: Play better defense more consistently, get healthy and win the Pac-12 with no more than one loss. Ideally, USC would want to beat a ranked Notre Dame team and have Clemson lose at Notre Dame. If USC loses a game, but still wins the Pac-12, it's going to need that win against the Irish, and it's going to have to win with style. The selection committee compares common opponents, and Clemson plays at Notre Dame. If USC and Clemson finish with identical records and a conference title, that will be a factor. Saturday was a step in the right direction defensively, as USC held Washington State scoreless in the final 43 minutes. The Cougars entered the game having scored 107 points combined in their previous three games. USC has yet to beat a ranked opponent, though. It will have a chance on Saturday at Utah, which should still be ranked in spite of its loss to UCLA.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: USC has a 20% chance to reach the CFP.
Playoff status: Contender. USC's offense is the reason the Trojans are listed here, as Lincoln Riley has composed a roster that's oozing talent and scoring touchdowns on 49% of its drives (fifth-best in the FBS). USC entered Saturday's game leading the FBS in turnover margin at +14, and had generated 69 points off of turnovers -- also the most in FBS.
Tennessee (5-0)
Saturday's score: Tennessee 40, LSU 13
SOR entering the game: No. 11
SOS entering the game: No. 107
Remaining SOS: No. 3
Best win: Saturday at LSU. The 27-point win was the Vols' largest against an AP-ranked team in the regular season since 1995 and it happened at one of the toughest places to play in the SEC.
What it needs to finish in the top four: Avoid going 0-2 against Alabama and Georgia during the regular season. If the Vols can win the SEC or finish with one loss -- to either Alabama or Georgia -- it opens up multiple scenarios. Here's another way the SEC can get two teams in: Tennessee beats Alabama on Saturday, but loses to Georgia for its lone loss of the season. Alabama could still win the West, win the SEC, and the one-loss Vols would have a win over the SEC champs -- without even playing in the conference title game. Tennessee could also lose to Alabama but beat Georgia to win the East and get another shot at the Tide in the SEC title game. If Tennessee won the SEC, and it was Alabama's only loss of the season, both would likely finish in the top four.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Tennessee has a 22% chance to reach the CFP.
Playoff status: Contender. Tennessee is clearly better, and offensively the Vols look like they can hang with anyone. They've scored 234 points this season, their most through the first five games of a season since 1915. Tennessee isn't going to go 2-0 against Alabama and Georgia, but it might not have to.
Ole Miss (6-0)
Saturday's score: Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 28
SOR entering the game: No. 12
SOS entering the game: No. 108
Remaining SOS: No. 8
Best win: Oct. 1 vs. Kentucky. It's the only ranked Power 5 opponent Ole Miss has faced and the only Power 5 opponent over .500.
What it needs to finish in the top four: Win the SEC, but it could get interesting if Ole Miss wins the West, but not the conference. The SEC champ is definitely in, but if it's Georgia, what would the selection committee do with one-loss Ole Miss and one-loss Alabama? Ole Miss has plenty of opportunities in the second half of the season to impress members of the selection committee, and it needs every one of them because of a nonconference schedule that included Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Tulsa. Those opponents have a combined 10-13 record, but that can be overcome with wins against Alabama and Mississippi State. It also depends on how teams like Arkansas and LSU finish the season.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Ole Miss has a 9.8% chance to reach the CFP.
Playoff status: Contender. Road trips to LSU and Arkansas no longer look as daunting, and Alabama has shown vulnerabilities with and without quarterback Bryce Young in the lineup. A week after a dominant defensive performance, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart proved the strength of the passing game when an opponent starts to stifle the run. If the Rebels continue to improve and put it all together against the SEC's best, they will have the résumé and the eye test.
UCLA (6-0)
Saturday's score: UCLA 42, Utah 32
SOR entering the game: No. 14
SOS entering the game: No. 121
Remaining SOS: No. 47
Best win: Saturday against Utah. This was a statement win for coach Chip Kelly against the defending conference champions and easily his biggest win in five seasons leading the Bruins.
What it needs to finish in the top four: It needs to overcome a dreadful nonconference schedule and avoid going 0-2 against USC and Oregon. UCLA will have to finish as an undefeated or one-loss Pac-12 champ and look better than the ACC and Big 12 champions. UCLA didn't have any nonconference wins against Power 5 opponents, which won't beat Clemson or even Texas (which lost to Alabama) in a résumé debate. UCLA needs to hope Utah, Oregon and USC all finish in the CFP top 25 -- especially since it seems Washington will fall out. It does help that the Pac-12 scrapped divisions, ensuring its two best teams will play for the conference championship, giving the Bruins another shot at a ranked opponent.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: UCLA has a 1% chance to make the playoff.
Playoff status: Contender. UCLA looked the part Saturday against a very good Utah team, with quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson accounting for five touchdowns. The Bruins have a bye week to prepare for a trip to Oregon, and if they can win in Eugene, they will have had back-to-back road wins against top-25 opponents.
Penn State (5-0)
Saturday's score: Bye week
SOR: No. 4
SOS: No. 74
Remaining SOS: No. 13
Best win: Sept. 1 at Purdue. That's right, Auburn has spiraled to the point where a win against Purdue is more impressive.
What it needs to finish in the top four: It's win the Big Ten or bust for the Nittany Lions. If they don't win the East, they would be in a similar position to Michigan in that the selection committee would have a hard time declaring Penn State "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country. That's the protocol for any team that doesn't win its conference title. Right now, Ohio State and Michigan are the only two ranked opponents on Penn State's schedule, and it's likely to stay that way unless Minnesota sneaks in. If it loses to either Ohio State or Michigan and doesn't get an opportunity to beat another ranked opponent in the Big Ten championship game, that résumé won't stack up against other contenders.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Penn State has a 6.9% chance to reach the playoff.
Playoff status: Pretender. Penn State has been inconsistent against average competition, at times wowing with its newfound running game and others ... well, the Nittany Lions beat Northwestern in spite of five turnovers. It was raining and not ideal weather conditions, but still. Penn State has yet to beat a ranked opponent, but it had a bye week to prepare for Saturday's critical East division game at Michigan.
Oklahoma State (5-0)
Saturday's score: Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 31
SOR entering the game: No. 7
SOS entering the game: No. 94
Remaining SOS: No. 16
Best win: Oct. 1 at Baylor. The road win against the reigning conference champs gave the Cowboys an edge in the conference race, and a win in what should be one of the most difficult Big 12 road games of their season.
What it needs to finish in the top four: Better defense, a Big 12 title and some help. The Cowboys entered Saturday ranked No. 102 in defensive efficiency -- and that was before they gave up 31 points and over 500 yards to Texas Tech. With nonconference wins against Central Michigan, Arizona State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the Cowboys are under pressure to win the conference with little margin for error. Like TCU, Oklahoma State needs the selection committee to rank multiple Big 12 teams to boost its résumé, because it's not going to gain any separation from other Power 5 contenders with that nonconference lineup.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Oklahoma State has a 3.5% chance to make the playoff.
Playoff status: Pretender. In addition to the questions about the defense, quarterback Spencer Sanders only completed 48.8% of his passes (22 of 45) on Saturday against a now 3-3 unranked Red Raiders team. While the win at Baylor was impressive, the selection committee is going to want to see more on both sides of the ball against elite competition.
TCU (5-0)
Saturday's score: TCU 38, Kansas 31
SOR entering the game: No. 9
SOS entering the game: No. 99
Remaining SOS: No. 14
Best win: Saturday against Kansas. It was TCU's first win against a ranked Power 5 opponent this season.
What it needs to finish in the top four: A Big 12 title, the committee to rank other teams in the league and chaos in the other Power 5 races. Even if TCU can sustain this balanced success and finish as a one-loss Big 12 champ, it's going to be difficult to unseat another Power 5 conference champion with a stronger schedule. Clemson also has a win against an FCS opponent, Furman, but it has nonconference games against Notre Dame and South Carolina -- two teams that if they finish above .500 will carry more weight than wins against Colorado and SMU. If Kansas ultimately tumbles out of the top 25, TCU needs to hope Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State can finish in the CFP top 25. Finally, it needs to look better than USC. The Trojans have the razzle dazzle offense and the shiny brand that goes with it. TCU will have to look the part against better teams down the stretch.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: TCU has a 2.2% chance to reach the CFP.
Playoff status: Pretender. Yes, the Frogs are 5-0 but one of those wins came against a winless Colorado team that recently fired its coach. One came against FCS Tarleton State. Another against an abysmal 3-3 Oklahoma team. With Oklahoma State and back-to-back road trips to Texas and Baylor still looming, it's easier to believe TCU will finish with two losses than continue its undefeated run.
Texas (4-2)
Quinn Ewers connects for four touchdowns in Texas' 49-0 win over Oklahoma.
Saturday's score: Texas 49, Oklahoma 0
SOR entering the game: No. 40
SOS entering the game: No. 8
Remaining SOS: No. 23
Best win: Saturday against Oklahoma. Yes, it came against a downtrodden Sooners team that looked historically bad, but it was Texas' biggest margin of victory in the 118-game series as well as the Longhorns' first shutout win over OU since 1965.
What it needs to finish in the top four: Starting quarterback Quinn Ewers to stay healthy, nine straight wins with a Big 12 title and some chaos in the ACC and/or Pac-12. A two-loss team has never made the CFP, but there's a first for everything. If Texas looks the part down the stretch, especially with Ewers igniting the offense like he did Saturday, the Longhorns could make CFP history. ESPN's FPI projects the Longhorns will run the table, and if they finish as a two-loss Big 12 champion, the selection committee isn't going to penalize them for an early close loss to Alabama. If Texas can finish the season on a nine-game winning streak that includes a conference title, expect the Longhorns to be in the thick of the debate for No. 4.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Texas has a 12.2% chance to reach the CFP.
Playoff status: Pretender. Texas looks like a different team with Ewers at the helm, but there's so much pressure to win out. If Texas runs the table and wins the Big 12, ESPN's Playoff Predictor has the Longhorns at No. 4 with a 57.2% chance to reach the CFP along with Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia. With so much parity in the league, it's hard to envision Texas remaining unscathed, especially with road trips to Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Kansas.