The battle royale weekends are underrated. As the college football season progresses, the storylines get whittled down a bit, focusing more on national title and conference races and a couple of particularly big games. At this point in the season, though, we're still going wherever the remote control takes us.
Just as we didn't expect to end up watching quite as much of App State-Troy, Syracuse-Purdue or USF-Florida as we did last week, there are lots of games that could end up commanding our attention in Week 4. But it's a huge weekend in the Pac-12, we've got a Southwest Conference-themed slate in Texas (Arkansas-A&M! Texas-Texas Tech! TCU-SMU! Rice-Houston!) and the narrative potential of games such as Tennessee-Florida is off the charts.
Let's see where Week 4 takes us. Here's everything you need to follow.
Tennessee has a chance to make a statement
No. 20 Florida at No. 11 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Sept. 21, 2002. Two weeks after a blowout loss to Miami, Ron Zook's Florida Gators found their footing. Or at least, the fourth-ranked Tennessee Volunteers lost theirs. In a downpour in Knoxville, the Vols fumbled seven times in the first half, Florida's Rex Grossman somehow threw for 324 yards (albeit with the customary two interceptions), and the Gators ripped off 24 points in a five-minute span late in the second quarter to cruise 30-13.
In the past 40 years, that's the only time Tennessee has been favored by at least five points over Florida. The Vols have been favored eight times in all, and they've won only three of those games. Hell, they've won only once in the past 17 years in this series, favored or not.
It's jarring, then, to see that the Vols are 10.5-point favorites over the Gators on Saturday. This must be a trap, right?
On paper, the line is deserved. Better yet for the Vols, the weather is supposed to be lovely: 80 degrees and partly cloudy, per Weather Underground.
The balance of power began shifting almost the moment last year's 38-14 Gators win ended. Since then, Florida is just 5-7. The Gators finished last season by losing six of their final nine games, firing head coach Dan Mullen and losing to UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl. They began Billy Napier's tenure with a lovely home upset of Utah, but they faded physically against Kentucky and nearly lost to USF.
The Gators will probably have to put on their track shoes to pull off an upset in Knoxville. Their defense ranks a dismal 106th in success rate allowed and 95th in points allowed per drive -- injured linebacker Ventrell Miller's absence last week exacerbated all problems -- and Tennessee's offense, against similar overall schedule strength, ranks 15th and 10th, respectively. Once Hendon Hooker and the Vols get that first first down in a given drive, their odds of scoring skyrocket; that's a problem for Napier considering almost everyone gets that first first down against the Gators (Florida's three-and-punt rate: 16%, 123rd in FBS).
So it's going to be up to Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson to keep up. And when Florida has the ball, it's very much a strength-versus-strength and weakness-versus-weakness matchup. Tennessee ranks sixth in rushing success rate allowed, but Florida backs Montrell Johnson Jr., Nay'Quan Wright and Trevor Etienne are averaging 7.1 yards per carry. Omitting sacks, Richardson is averaging 5.6 per carry.
The passing game has imploded, however. Richardson was a solid 17-for-24 for 168 yards in the upset of Utah, but in his past two games he's gone 24-for-53 (45%) for 255 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions. Teams have found some success throwing mostly short, quick passes on Tennessee -- the Vols are 83rd in completion rate allowed and 51st in passing success rate allowed -- and if Florida is going to score the 30-plus points it might take to win this game, Richardson must rediscover his rhythm. The Gators probably can't do enough damage on the ground alone.
Current line: UT -10.5 (up from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Vols by 12.4 | FPI projection: Vols by 16.5.
A huge weekend out West
No. 7 USC at Oregon State (9:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12)
No. 15 Oregon at Washington State (4 p.m. ET, Fox)
Three weeks into 2021, the Pac-12 was a combined 18-18. It had two ranked teams. Even with Oregon's win over Ohio State, which kept the Ducks prominent in the national title race long after they stopped looking like contenders -- which, if we're being honest, was basically the moment they returned home from Columbus -- the conference was a disappointment almost from the very start. Utah rallied after installing Cam Rising at quarterback, but USC and Washington collapsed, Oregon eventually wilted, and the Pac-12 had a very, very bad season.
Three weeks into 2022, the Pac-12 is a combined 25-10. It has four ranked teams. There were four Pac-12 teams in the preseason SP+ top 50, and there are seven now. USC is grabbing headlines, Washington looks the part, Utah is mostly Utah, Oregon has looked great against teams not named Georgia, and Washington State and Oregon State are both fiery and unbeaten.
Season play begins in earnest Saturday, and at least four games should be exciting to watch. These two are the headliners, and SP+ projects only a 41% chance of both USC and Oregon surviving their respective road tests.
No offense to Stanford or its fans, but USC's trip to Corvallis represents the Trojans' biggest road test to date under Lincoln Riley. Oregon State could test USC's fatal flaws better than anyone else has thus far.
Few teams finish unbeaten, and we can often tell how even good teams will lose before they do. USC is clearly good. The transfer-heavy offense has clicked as well as anyone could have hoped: Caleb Williams is completing 74% of his passes at 13.7 yards per completion, Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison has caught 18 of 20 balls for 295 yards, transfer backs Travis Dye and Austin Jones are averaging 141 rushing yards per game at 7.8 yards per carry, and the Trojans are averaging 50.7 points despite the customary turtle-slow pace of a Riley offense. Defensively, there are inefficiencies, but (a) the Trojans are creating havoc and turnovers and (b) the defense only has to be so good with this offense.
We can see their fatal flaws, however. If or when the Trojans lose, it will be because they couldn't stop the run and couldn't protect Williams enough. USC's defense ranks 93rd in success rate allowed thus far, 119th against the run. The Trojans have given up 47 gains of double-digit yards thus far (102nd in FBS). They are harassing passers (ninth in sack rate) and closing out drives when opponents are behind schedule (14th in passing downs success rate), but that only matters if opponents must pass.
Offensively, the lone USC flaw is derived from Williams' greatest strength. He is poised far beyond his true-sophomore status, and he makes a lot of big plays because of it. But even though opponents are blitzing only 22% of the time (96th in FBS), USC ranks 93rd in sack rate allowed, 117th on passing downs. Williams holds on to the ball too long at times.
In some game this season, an opponent will dominate on the ground, close out some Trojan drives with big sacks and take USC down. Can Oregon State do it? Running back Deshaun Fenwick is solid, and the Beavers are happy to run the ball as much as you let them. But I'm not sure they've got the pass rush. The Beavers have recorded only three sacks in three games, and while outside linebacker John McCartan is due for a breakout game and a secondary led by Rejzohn Wright has upside, it feels like USC might still have the advantage here. It'll be a hell of an atmosphere in Corvallis, though. I hope you have the Pac-12 Network.
The undercard in Pullman is almost as intriguing. Under Jake Dickert, a former defensive coordinator, Washington State's defensive numbers have been great thus far. The Cougars are allowing just 12.7 points per game and rank 12th in success rate allowed (18th rushing, 17th passing). They haven't faced a good passing game yet -- with the way Bo Nix has been playing, Oregon definitely qualifies as such -- but they sure didn't give up much to Braelon Allen and an otherwise effective Wisconsin offense.
Granted, the Cougs' offense has lacked, particularly through the air. Once they're behind schedule, trouble soon follows. Oregon's defensive averages are still absolute dreck, though -- 118th in success rate allowed, 97th in explosive play rate -- and while Georgia was responsible for most of that damage, Wazzu might be able to carve out just enough advantages to hang around.
Current lines: USC -6.5 (down from USC -12.5 on Sunday) and Oregon -6.5 (up from -6) | SP+ projections: USC by 3.8, Oregon by 8.9 | FPI projection: USC by 7.0, Oregon by 8.2.
How's the remodeled Clemson offense coming along? (And should we be worried about the Clemson defense?)
No. 5 Clemson at No. 21 Wake Forest (noon ET, ABC)
Dave Clawson has accomplished a lot in his eight-plus years at Wake Forest. His Demon Deacons have bowled for six straight seasons, and they won 11 games and an ACC Atlantic title last season.
In eight meetings against Dabo Swinney and Clemson, however, the Deacs have gone 0-8 by an average score of 41-13. Even last year, with Wake on its way to the ACC championship game and Clemson fielding a moribund offense, the Tigers rang up a 48-27 victory. The matchups are just horrible for the Deacs -- that slow-mesh run-pass option they like to use is a lot less effective when one of the best defensive lines in the country is blowing their O-line up -- and the timing for an upset has never been right.
At first glance, this doesn't seem like the year that changes. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and Clemson's offense, though still spotty, appear to be in better shape, and the Wake offense is still searching for fifth gear.
Clemson collapsed from fourth to 83rd in offensive SP+ last season, and when offensive coordinator Tony Elliott took the Virginia head-coaching job, Swinney replaced him internally, promoting Brandon Streeter to OC. Predictably, Streeter hasn't attempted to remodel the offense as much as sharpen it. Clemson is attempting to create advantages with short, quick passes, a strong run game and lots of tempo. It's worn down two outmanned FBS opponents (Georgia Tech and Louisiana Tech) -- against the Yellow Jackets and Bulldogs, Clemson scored a combined 10 points in the first quarter, 17 in the second and 31 each in the third and fourth. Uiagalelei's passing numbers are still mediocre, but Will Shipley is averaging 7.8 yards per carry. Wake has not defended the run well enough this year, and it's possible the Deacs can't knock Clemson off-schedule to take advantage of Uiagalelei's sack-prone tendencies.
It sure seems like Wake might be able to pass on the Tigers, though. Opponents have completed 64% of their passes against Clemson's remodeled secondary thus far, and the Tigers rank 96th in passing success rate allowed. Despite heavy blitzing and a talented line, they rank 97th in sack rate. They aren't giving up chunk plays, but teams have passed efficiently on them. Sam Hartman and Wake will try to do a lot of that, especially since they aren't running the ball well (and no one runs well on Clemson anyway).
After three easy games, Clemson is an encouraging 22nd in points per drive on O, but an almost discouraging 19th in points per drive on D. Can Wake take advantage of the latter before getting taken down by the former?
Current line: Clemson -7 (down from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 10.2 | FPI projection: Clemson by 11.3.
Does it matter that Arkansas' defense is struggling if they're playing Texas A&M?
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 23 Texas A&M (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The theme for the college football weekend is strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. Florida's run game and moribund passing game against Tennessee's run defense and vulnerable pass defense. Oregon's efficient yet big-play-deficient offense against Wazzu's anti-efficiency defense. The theme will be accentuated in Arlington. When Arkansas has the ball, KJ Jefferson and one of the sport's most potent offenses will be trying to score on A&M's unforgiving and speedy defense. When A&M has the ball, one of the least imaginative offenses in the country will be trying to score on one of the more disappointing defenses.
No A&M game has produced more than 31 total points this year, but Arkansas games have produced an average of 65 points per game, and if anyone can coax points and actual excitement out of the Aggies, it might be the Hogs.
Like Clemson, Arkansas is in a strange place now. The offense is perhaps better than expected: Raheim Sanders is driving an ultra-efficient ground game, and Jefferson is averaging 14 yards per completion, 15.1 to transfer Matt Landers. But the defense, which underwent a big rebuild in the offseason, is 103rd in rushing success rate allowed and has already given up 11 passes of 30-plus yards. Only Arkansas State has allowed more. Missouri State threw for 357 yards against the Razorbacks last week.
Will any of that last paragraph matter against A&M? A&M games feature bad field position and inefficiency for both teams, and while a quarterback change by the Aggies -- from Haynes King to Max Johnson -- produced a win over Miami, Johnson was just 10-for-20 passing, and A&M scored just 17 points. The defense has been only average against the run, but the Aggies don't miss tackles and don't let teams pass. Sanders might have to do some heavy lifting for Arkansas to score, but the Razorbacks might not have to score a ton to win.
Current line: A&M -2 (down from -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: A&M by 3.4 | FPI projection: A&M by 2.7.
Buckeyes vs. Big, Burly Manball
Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Three games into Jim Knowles' tenure as Ohio State defensive coordinator, the Buckeyes' defense looks ... like a Jim Knowles defense, willing to allow a few plays (six passes of 30-plus yards, 106th in FBS) in the name of efficiency. Ohio State ranks 11th in success rate allowed, and the Buckeyes are creating all the negative plays Knowles lives for (seventh in run stuff rate, 14th in sack rate).
After picking up steam in nonconference play -- they did just enough to get past Notre Dame before blowing Arkansas State and Toledo out of the water by a combined 132-33 -- the Buckeyes open Big Ten play with their first game against Wisconsin since the 2019 Big Ten championship game.
Wisconsin is as Wisconsin-ish as ever, running the ball steadily, slowing the game to a crawl and attempting to overwhelm opponents with physical and disruptive linebacker play. A revamped Badgers secondary has held up so far, but now that quarterback C.J. Stroud has found an appropriate rhythm with receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka and veterans Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming are 100% healthy, I'm not sure there's a secondary in college football that can avoid getting overwhelmed by the Buckeyes' receiving corps.
That might be all that matters in determining the result Saturday evening, but it will be interesting to see how Knowles' defense handles both yards-after-contact producer Braelon Allen and a more aggressive Wisconsin passing game. Wideouts Chimere Dike, Skyler Bell, Keontez Lewis and Dean Engram have combined for 23 catches, 461 yards and 4 touchdowns, though much of that damage came against Illinois State and New Mexico State. Ohio State should handle this one, but Wisconsin could land some blows.
Current line: Buckeyes -18.5 (up from -17 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 15.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 17.8.
My favorite bets
I'm listing five best-bet candidates each week, and after a 2-3 performance in Week 3, we're at 8-6-1 for the season. Does that look like a terribly mediocre record? Yes! But it's 57%, which would be extremely profitable over the course of, say, hundreds of bets. So there.
Three of my initial favorite bets -- Cincinnati -13 vs. Indiana, Western Kentucky -26 vs. Florida International and Georgia -41 vs. Kent State -- were evidently everyone's favorites, and the lines have moved significantly in the favorites' direction. So let's cross them off and find some different ones.
Old Dominion -5.5 vs. Arkansas State and ODU-ASU over 56.5 points (6 p.m., ESPN+). Arkansas State has been slightly better than expected in Butch Jones' second season; the Red Wolves were projected 121st in SP+ and have risen a hair to 113th after blowing out Grambling, staying competitive with Memphis and losing to Ohio State by only 33. (Hey, don't laugh -- Toledo might be the best team in the MAC and lost to the Buckeyes by 56.)
ASU's offense is efficient enough to coax ODU out of its low-scoring shell, but I still think ODU is a good amount better. SP+ gives the Monarchs an edge of 8.8 points and projects something more like a 35-26 win, which sounds about right to me.
UMass at Temple: over 43.5 points (2 p.m., ESPN+). At Temple -9.5, the books are basically projecting a score of Owls 26.5, Minutemen 17. UMass' defense is improving under Don Brown but hasn't turned the corner just yet, and the Temple offense has looked sharper since freshman E.J. Warner -- yes, Kurt's son -- took over at quarterback. SP+ projects an average score of 31.3 to 18.7, though I might lean toward 34-14. That makes the total and the line best-bet candidates, but we'll just go with the total.
Washington -13.5 vs. Stanford (10:30 p.m., FS1). Lesson learned. Last week, I said that both SP+ and I needed to see Washington perform well against Michigan State before becoming believers. They performed well! There might be some hangover potential in this one, but (a) SP+ has the Huskies projected as favorites of 14.8 points, and (b) they've overachieved SP+ projections by 14.1 points per game so far. It's adjusting to how good they've been, but I'd put their advantage here closer to 16 or 17.
Ole Miss -21.5 vs. Tulsa (4 p.m., SECN). I liked the opening line (Ole Miss -20.5) much better, but I'm just riding the wave right now. The Rebels began the season projected a lofty ninth in SP+ and have still overachieved projections by 6.7 points per game. They're beating the spread by an average of 13.7 too. Neither the books nor the computers have caught up to them, and SP+ gives them a 26.2-point edge in this one. Now, there might be reason to believe that Tulsa is also better than projected after last week's 54-17 destruction of Jacksonville State, but I'm starting to trust Ole Miss.
(Here's where you should hear loud warning bells ringing in the background.)
Week 4 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday night
Virginia at Syracuse (7 p.m., ESPN). Syracuse is 3-0 after a stirring comeback win over Purdue, and the Orange have two more extremely winnable games (at home against UVA and Wagner) before the competition picks up. Of course, if Virginia's Brennan Armstrong finally finds his rhythm, this one gets a lot trickier. Current line: Syracuse -9 (down from -9.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Syracuse by 9.2 | FPI projection: Syracuse by 15.3.
Early Saturday
Duke at Kansas (noon, FS1). A BATTLE OF UNBEATENS. No, the Blue Devils and Jayhawks aren't exactly conference contenders (yet!), but they are among the most fun stories of the season's early going. Sellout crowd in Lawrence! For football! Current line: KU -7 (down from -8 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: KU by 7.3 | FPI projection: KU by 8.5
No. 17 Baylor at Iowa State (noon, ESPN2). As with the Pac-12, this should be a fun and telling weekend in the Big 12, too, starting in Ames. The line has moved significantly in ISU's direction this week. Baylor's skill corps is banged up, and quarterback Blake Shapen has been taking a few too many hits, but we'll see if Hunter Dekkers and the Iowa State offense can make enough big plays to get the job done. Current line: ISU -2.5 (flipped from Baylor -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Baylor by 1.6 | FPI projection: Baylor by 1.0.
TCU at SMU (noon, ESPNU). Sonny Dykes against his former team. After easy wins over Colorado and Tarleton State, Dykes' TCU squad starts its season in earnest with a battle for the glorious Iron Skillet. SMU was too glitchy to win at Maryland last week -- the game was there for the taking -- but on paper this one's awfully tight. Current line: TCU -2 (up from -1.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: SMU by 3.0 | FPI projection: SMU by 0.6.
Maryland at No. 4 Michigan (noon, Fox). Michigan's nonconference slate -- Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn, all 120th or worse in SP+ -- was reminiscent of Kansas State's during Bill Snyder's 1990s heyday. The Wolverines established a rhythm, but will that translate to an easy win over by far the fastest and most skilled team they've faced to date? Current line: Michigan -17 (no movement) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 18.5 | FPI projection: Michigan by 14.6.
Missouri at Auburn (noon, ESPN). Anxiety Bowl time! Auburn could fire Bryan Harsin if his Tigers, fresh from last week's demoralizing blowout loss to Penn State, slip up to Eliah Drinkwitz's squad. Possible? Certainly. Likely? Not if Mizzou's offense remains as placid as it has been to date. Current line: Auburn -7 (up from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Auburn by 9.6 | FPI projection: Auburn by 8.1.
Saturday afternoon
No. 22 Texas at Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., ESPN). While a backup QB vs. backup QB matchup certainly dampens this one a bit, if you're looking for the most exciting environment in the Big 12 on Saturday, it'll be hard to top a sold-out Jones AT&T Stadium in what might be Texas' last trip to town for a long, long while. Current line: Texas -6.5 (up from -4.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 8.9 | FPI projection: Texas by 12.1.
Minnesota at Michigan State (3:30 p.m., BTN). Michigan State probably isn't as bad as the first half of last week's loss to Washington might suggest, but might Minnesota be good? Like Michigan, the Gophers have treated three overwhelmed opponents with outright disdain, and now comes the real competition. Current line: Minnesota -3 (flipped from MSU -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: MSU by 0.2 | FPI projection: MSU by 3.7.
Notre Dame at North Carolina (3:30 p.m., ABC). The theme of this week is indeed strength-vs.-strength and weakness-vs.-weakness matchups, but the leader in the "resistible force/movable object" clubhouse might come when Notre Dame's offense is on the field with UNC's defense. (The opposite matchup, however, could be quite entertaining.) Current line: UNC -1.5 (no movement) | SP+ projection: Notre Dame by 5.7 | FPI projection: Notre Dame by 1.2.
Indiana at Cincinnati (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Statistically, Indiana was rather fortunate to beat either Illinois or Western Kentucky, much less both teams, in reaching 3-0. Does Cincinnati provide comeuppance this weekend, or can the increasingly confident Hoosiers throw a scare into a Bearcats team that hasn't quite clicked yet? Current line: Cincy -16.5 (up from -14 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 22.2 | FPI projection: Cincy by 16.7.
Tulsa at No. 16 Ole Miss (4 p.m., SECN). Tulsa has indeed gotten better each week. Will that matter against an Ole Miss team growing increasingly dominant on both sides of the ball? Current line: Ole Miss -21.5 (up from -20.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 26.2 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 25.7.
James Madison at Appalachian State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). If preseason projections were eliminated from the SP+ equation, JMU would be the No. 1 overall team thanks to its total domination of Middle Tennessee and Norfolk State. Granted, that's a pretty good case for why the preseason numbers still carry heavy weight, but it's also a warning to App State -- show up sooner than you did against Troy last week, or the Dukes might not let you hang around to win on another Hail Mary. Current line: App State -7 (down from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: App State by 8.4 | FPI projection: App State by 7.0.
Saturday evening
Kansas State at No. 6 Oklahoma (8 p.m., Fox). Yes, Kansas State's offense looked destitute in the Wildcats' 17-10 loss to Tulane last week. And yes, it's bad timing for that considering how good OU has looked on both sides of the ball. But! KSU lost to Arkansas State (and not even a good Arkansas State) a week before winning in Norman two years ago. The Wildcats have the Sooners right where they want them, right? Current line: OU -12.5 (down from -13 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 16.1 | FPI projection: OU by 14.3.
Vanderbilt at No. 2 Alabama (7:30 p.m., SECN). Vanderbilt is 3-1 and has jumped from 108th in SP+ in the preseason to 86th. The Commodores' special teams are legitimately awesome, and the offense has life for the first time since 2018. Their reward for this improvement: three straight games against teams in the SP+ top six. Current line: Bama -40.5 (up from -38 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Bama by 40.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 36.5.
Iowa at Rutgers (7 p.m., FS1). The current over/under for this game is 34.5 points, the lowest for a game since the epic Mizzou-Vanderbilt clash of 2015. (Final score: Vandy 10, Mizzou 3.) How low would it have to be for you to consider betting the over? Current line: Iowa -7.5 (no movement) | SP+ projection: Iowa by 10.0 | FPI projection: Iowa by 2.3.
Louisiana at ULM (8 p.m., ESPN+). Louisiana has both won and covered in its last eight trips to Monroe, but the Ragin' Cajuns are coming off of a disturbingly meek loss at Rice. Do they maintain order in this one-way rivalry, or can the WarHawks produce a scare? Current line: UL -9 (down from -12 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Cajuns by 21.7 | FPI projection: Cajuns by 10.4.
Late Saturday
No. 13 Utah at Arizona State (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Arizona State has maybe the most spectacularly all-or-nothing offense in the country -- Xazavian Valladay is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, Emory Jones 15 yards per completion. And with head coach Herm Edwards fired last week, the Sun Devils also have nothing to lose. That could make them dangerous ... or they could fold after one swift punch to the mouth. Since they're playing Utah, I'm guessing the latter. Current line: Utah -15.5 (up from -14 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Utah by 10.6 | FPI projection: Utah by 13.7.
Stanford at No. 18 Washington (10:30 p.m., FS1). Hot damn, the Huskies have looked great so far, covering handily in every game. (Every game has hit the over too.) Stanford's defense is great when opponents are behind schedule, but Washington may never be behind schedule. Current line: UW -13.5 (no movement) | SP+ projection: UW by 14.8 | FPI projection: UW by 13.0.
Wyoming at No. 19 BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). The 41-20 deficit was kind -- BYU got straight-up blown out by Oregon last week, trailing 38-7 at the end of three quarters before rallying in garbage time. How do the Cougars respond against a Wyoming team quickly rounding into form defensively? Current line: BYU -22 (up from -21.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: BYU by 22.4 | FPI projection: BYU by 21.3.
Smaller-school showcase
As always, let's save a shout-out for football at levels below FBS. Here are three huge games you should crack open the laptop for this weekend.
FCS: No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 4 Missouri State (3 p.m., ESPN3). SDSU has won six games in a row in this series, the last five by an average score of 49-15, but it sure seems like Bobby Petrino is building a dangerous program in Springfield. Just ask Arkansas.
D2: No. 9 Ouachita Baptist at No. 7 Harding (8 p.m., YouTube). This is one of the most storied rivalries in Division II. Harding is about an hour northeast of Little Rock, OBU about an hour southwest, both teams are usually good, and they've split their last 20 meetings. Both teams play super fun offense, and the winner becomes the default favorite in the Great American Conference.
D3: No. 4 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 6 Hardin-Simmons (7 p.m., local streaming). In its first year after the retirement of legendary coach Pete Fredenburg, UMHB, the defending D3 champ, has already slipped up against Wisconsin-Whitewater this season, and Hardin-Simmons is smelling blood. The Cowboys have lost eight in a row in the series, but the last three have come by one score. Is this the year they break through?