College football SP+ rankings after Week 3

Bill ConnellySep 18, 2022, 10:00 AM ET
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Week 3 of the college football season was a bit odd.

At the top, almost nothing changed. Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State all looked the parts of top-three teams, and both Oklahoma and Michigan made resounding statements against overwhelmed competition (Nebraska and UConn, respectively). Ole Miss, an SP+ favorite, continued to back up its lofty ratings, and Clemson continued to win comfortably while looking as average as humanly possible on offense. Tennessee and Oklahoma State looked great on offense, Texas A&M and Iowa looked great on defense, and the world kept spinning on its axis.

Beneath the surface, however, were some pretty jarring results. Both the spread and SP+ whiffed mightily on games like Kansas-Houston (48-30 KU), Tulane-Kansas State (17-10 Tulane) and Eastern Michigan-Arizona State (30-21 EMU), and slight favorites such as Penn State (over Auburn), Washington (over Michigan State), Oregon (over BYU) and LSU (over Mississippi State) won far more comfortably than expected.

The result: a set of SP+ ratings that resemble Week 3 -- tranquil at the top and turbulent everywhere else. With preseason projections starting to phase out of the ratings a bit more quickly, and with Week 3's surprises, we saw 15 teams move up at least 10 spots in the rankings and seven move down by at least 10.

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

SP+ Week 4 rankings

Team	SP+	Off. SP+	Def. SP+	Special Teams
1. Georgia (3-0)	33.5	42.2 (4)	9.0 (1)	0.3 (15)
2. Alabama (3-0)	32.2	44.5 (2)	12.6 (5)	0.3 (16)
3. Ohio St. (3-0)	30.0	46.9 (1)	16.6 (16)	-0.2 (104)
4. Oklahoma (3-0)	26.1	42.1 (5)	16.0 (14)	0.0 (64)
5. Michigan (3-0)	25.4	40.4 (6)	15.4 (10)	0.4 (6)
6. Ole Miss (3-0)	21.9	37.3 (13)	15.6 (11)	0.3 (26)
7. Clemson (3-0)	21.4	33.0 (34)	11.7 (2)	0.0 (62)
8. Tennessee (3-0)	20.8	43.0 (3)	22.3 (39)	0.1 (55)
9. Penn St. (3-0)	18.8	33.5 (32)	14.9 (9)	0.1 (44)
10. Kentucky (3-0)	18.5	31.6 (43)	13.2 (7)	0.1 (48)
11. Texas A&M (2-1)	18.2	29.9 (55)	11.9 (3)	0.2 (42)
12. Utah (2-1)	18.0	37.5 (12)	19.8 (27)	0.3 (14)
13. Oklahoma St. (3-0)	17.6	37.2 (14)	20.0 (29)	0.4 (7)
14. Texas (2-1)	17.4	39.3 (8)	21.9 (35)	0.0 (61)
15. Wisconsin (2-1)	17.2	29.8 (58)	12.6 (6)	0.1 (57)
16. Minnesota (3-0)	16.8	30.7 (51)	14.1 (8)	0.2 (31)
17. Cincinnati (2-1)	16.4	35.8 (21)	19.3 (24)	-0.1 (76)
18. Notre Dame (1-2)	15.9	33.2 (33)	17.6 (18)	0.4 (5)
19. NC St. (3-0)	15.9	32.1 (38)	16.6 (15)	0.4 (10)
20. Oregon (2-1)	14.8	37.9 (10)	23.1 (43)	0.0 (59)
21. Arkansas (3-0)	14.8	37.0 (16)	22.0 (36)	-0.2 (96)
22. LSU (2-1)	14.6	34.1 (28)	19.1 (23)	-0.3 (125)
23. Miss. St. (2-1)	14.5	34.0 (30)	19.8 (28)	0.4 (4)
24. Michigan St. (2-1)	14.5	36.3 (19)	21.5 (33)	-0.3 (122)
25. Baylor (2-1)	14.1	30.1 (53)	15.7 (12)	-0.2 (100)
26. USC (3-0)	13.5	37.1 (15)	23.4 (46)	-0.2 (90)
27. Miami (2-1)	13.5	34.6 (27)	21.4 (32)	0.3 (12)
28. Kansas St. (2-1)	12.5	28.7 (64)	15.9 (13)	-0.3 (106)
29. UCLA (3-0)	12.3	36.9 (17)	24.5 (50)	-0.1 (83)
30. Pittsburgh (2-1)	12.3	39.5 (7)	26.9 (62)	-0.4 (128)
31. Iowa (2-1)	11.7	23.3 (94)	11.9 (4)	0.2 (30)
32. BYU (2-1)	11.6	34.6 (26)	22.6 (42)	-0.3 (117)
33. Florida (2-1)	10.9	35.7 (22)	25.0 (53)	0.2 (37)
34. Auburn (2-1)	10.8	31.6 (41)	21.2 (30)	0.4 (11)
35. Washington (3-0)	10.4	28.9 (63)	18.6 (21)	0.1 (52)
36. Purdue (1-2)	10.2	34.1 (29)	23.7 (48)	-0.2 (92)
37. Iowa St. (3-0)	10.0	30.0 (54)	19.8 (26)	-0.2 (101)
38. SMU (2-1)	9.8	36.1 (20)	26.6 (61)	0.3 (20)
39. Maryland (3-0)	9.4	34.7 (25)	25.7 (56)	0.4 (3)
40. TCU (2-0)	9.4	36.6 (18)	27.4 (68)	0.1 (45)
41. UCF (2-1)	9.1	30.7 (50)	21.3 (31)	-0.3 (118)
42. Wake Forest (3-0)	8.7	38.8 (9)	30.4 (81)	0.2 (29)
43. Florida St. (3-0)	8.4	32.1 (39)	23.4 (45)	-0.3 (109)
44. N. Carolina (3-0)	7.7	37.7 (11)	30.4 (83)	0.4 (1)
45. Boise St. (2-1)	7.2	25.3 (81)	18.2 (20)	0.1 (54)
46. Oregon St. (3-0)	7.2	32.5 (37)	24.9 (52)	-0.4 (130)
47. Texas Tech (2-1)	6.0	31.3 (46)	25.1 (54)	-0.2 (95)
48. Arizona St. (1-2)	4.9	27.2 (71)	22.4 (40)	0.1 (58)
49. Syracuse (3-0)	4.7	27.9 (70)	23.2 (44)	0.0 (66)
50. UAB (2-1)	4.5	26.7 (73)	21.9 (34)	-0.3 (112)
51. Air Force (2-1)	4.4	26.5 (75)	22.1 (37)	0.1 (53)
52. S. Carolina (1-2)	4.1	29.8 (57)	26.1 (60)	0.4 (9)
53. Louisville (1-2)	4.0	32.5 (36)	28.7 (74)	0.2 (36)
54. App. St. (2-1)	3.8	33.0 (35)	29.0 (76)	-0.3 (105)
55. Fresno St. (1-2)	3.8	31.5 (45)	27.5 (69)	-0.2 (97)
56. Houston (1-2)	3.7	33.8 (31)	30.4 (84)	0.3 (25)
57. Missouri (2-1)	3.6	31.0 (48)	27.3 (66)	0.0 (71)
58. W. Virginia (1-2)	3.6	31.6 (42)	28.1 (72)	0.1 (56)
59. Wash. St. (3-0)	3.4	22.1 (98)	18.6 (22)	0.0 (69)
60. Tulane (3-0)	3.4	30.8 (49)	27.6 (70)	0.3 (21)
61. Va. Tech (2-1)	2.7	20.6 (106)	18.2 (19)	0.3 (18)
62. Marshall (2-1)	2.4	28.3 (68)	26.0 (57)	0.1 (43)
63. Illinois (2-1)	2.2	21.8 (100)	19.4 (25)	-0.1 (85)
64. WKU (2-1)	2.0	35.0 (24)	32.9 (100)	-0.1 (86)
65. Toledo (2-1)	2.0	26.2 (78)	24.4 (49)	0.2 (33)
66. ECU (2-1)	1.9	28.3 (67)	26.0 (59)	-0.3 (123)
67. Louisiana (2-1)	1.2	24.1 (89)	22.6 (41)	-0.3 (121)
68. Nebraska (1-3)	0.9	31.6 (44)	30.4 (82)	-0.3 (120)
69. Memphis (2-1)	0.6	31.1 (47)	30.7 (87)	0.2 (39)
70. Coastal Caro. (3-0)	0.5	32.0 (40)	31.7 (93)	0.2 (38)
71. UTSA (1-2)	0.4	35.6 (23)	34.8 (109)	-0.3 (119)
72. Liberty (2-1)	0.2	29.3 (59)	28.9 (75)	-0.3 (108)
73. Army (1-2)	0.1	30.2 (52)	30.3 (80)	0.2 (27)
74. Rutgers (3-0)	-0.9	21.0 (103)	22.1 (38)	0.3 (19)
75. California (2-1)	-1.3	15.9 (123)	17.2 (17)	0.0 (65)
76. Tulsa (2-1)	-1.8	28.2 (69)	30.0 (79)	0.0 (67)
77. Stanford (1-1)	-1.9	28.9 (60)	30.9 (88)	0.0 (63)
78. Virginia (2-1)	-2.0	28.9 (61)	30.7 (86)	-0.2 (103)
79. JMU (2-0)	-2.1	26.3 (76)	28.3 (73)	-0.1 (78)
80. Boston Coll. (1-2)	-2.5	21.4 (102)	23.6 (47)	-0.3 (110)
81. Kansas (3-0)	-2.7	29.8 (56)	32.5 (99)	0.0 (74)
82. Indiana (3-0)	-3.3	23.7 (92)	27.1 (64)	0.1 (47)
83. S. Alabama (2-1)	-4.1	23.0 (96)	27.0 (63)	0.0 (73)
84. San Diego St. (1-2)	-4.1	20.3 (109)	24.7 (51)	0.3 (13)
85. CMU (1-2)	-5.7	28.5 (65)	33.9 (105)	-0.3 (126)
86. Vanderbilt (3-1)	-5.9	25.7 (79)	32.0 (96)	0.3 (24)
87. FAU (2-2)	-6.0	25.1 (82)	31.0 (89)	0.0 (72)
88. Troy (1-2)	-6.7	20.7 (105)	27.3 (67)	-0.1 (75)
89. So. Miss (1-2)	-7.3	18.6 (115)	26.0 (58)	0.1 (50)
90. Duke (3-0)	-7.5	24.9 (84)	32.3 (98)	-0.1 (79)
91. Georgia St. (0-3)	-7.8	24.3 (88)	32.3 (97)	0.2 (32)
92. UNLV (2-1)	-8.0	22.1 (99)	30.4 (85)	0.4 (8)
93. NIU (1-2)	-8.2	28.9 (62)	36.8 (114)	-0.3 (107)
94. Wyoming (3-1)	-8.2	19.4 (113)	27.7 (71)	0.0 (60)
95. MTSU (2-1)	-8.7	22.9 (97)	31.4 (92)	-0.2 (93)
96. ODU (1-2)	-8.8	24.5 (87)	33.2 (103)	0.0 (70)
97. Miami-OH (1-2)	-9.2	23.7 (91)	32.9 (101)	0.0 (68)
98. N. Texas (2-2)	-9.3	28.3 (66)	37.8 (117)	0.1 (49)
99. Northwestern (1-2)	-9.3	20.4 (108)	29.4 (77)	-0.3 (114)
100. USF (1-2)	-9.6	26.6 (74)	36.0 (113)	-0.2 (89)
101. Arizona (2-1)	-10.3	20.1 (111)	30.0 (78)	-0.3 (124)
102. San Jose St. (1-1)	-10.4	17.0 (120)	27.3 (65)	-0.2 (88)
103. Utah St. (1-2)	-10.5	24.6 (86)	35.2 (111)	0.1 (46)
104. Ga. Tech (1-2)	-10.8	24.7 (85)	35.2 (112)	-0.3 (116)
105. Ga. Southern (2-1)	-11.0	23.2 (95)	33.9 (107)	-0.3 (113)
106. Kent St. (1-2)	-11.9	26.7 (72)	38.8 (123)	0.2 (34)
107. EMU (2-1)	-12.1	26.3 (77)	38.3 (119)	-0.1 (80)
108. WMU (1-2)	-12.5	20.8 (104)	33.6 (104)	0.3 (17)
109. Ball St. (1-2)	-13.6	18.0 (117)	31.8 (95)	0.2 (35)
110. Rice (2-1)	-13.9	19.8 (112)	33.9 (106)	0.2 (41)
111. La. Tech (1-2)	-14.1	25.6 (80)	39.5 (125)	-0.2 (98)
112. Colorado (0-3)	-14.4	20.1 (110)	34.8 (108)	0.2 (28)
113. Arkansas St. (1-2)	-15.1	23.9 (90)	39.4 (124)	0.4 (2)
114. Nevada (2-2)	-15.3	17.4 (118)	32.9 (102)	0.3 (23)
115. BGSU (1-2)	-15.5	23.4 (93)	38.7 (122)	-0.3 (111)
116. Navy (0-2)	-15.6	15.9 (122)	31.4 (91)	-0.1 (82)
117. UTEP (1-3)	-15.6	15.3 (125)	31.2 (90)	0.3 (22)
118. New Mexico (2-1)	-16.2	9.2 (130)	25.3 (55)	-0.1 (87)
119. Buffalo (0-3)	-16.8	20.5 (107)	37.4 (115)	0.1 (51)
120. Colorado St. (0-3)	-17.0	18.5 (116)	35.1 (110)	-0.4 (131)
121. Ohio (1-2)	-17.1	21.5 (101)	38.5 (121)	-0.1 (81)
122. Charlotte (1-3)	-17.6	25.0 (83)	42.5 (129)	-0.2 (91)
123. Temple (1-2)	-19.4	12.8 (129)	31.8 (94)	-0.4 (129)
124. Texas St. (1-2)	-19.8	18.8 (114)	38.4 (120)	-0.2 (99)
125. ULM (1-2)	-23.0	17.3 (119)	40.1 (126)	-0.2 (94)
126. UConn (1-3)	-24.6	13.4 (126)	38.0 (118)	-0.1 (77)
127. Akron (1-2)	-27.3	13.3 (127)	40.2 (127)	-0.3 (115)
128. Hawaii (1-3)	-27.3	16.7 (121)	43.9 (130)	-0.1 (84)
129. UMass (1-2)	-29.5	13.1 (128)	42.4 (128)	-0.2 (102)
130. NMSU (0-4)	-30.0	8.1 (131)	37.7 (116)	-0.3 (127)
131. FIU (1-1)	-32.0	15.5 (124)	47.6 (131)	0.2 (40)

This week's movers

Indeed, the combination of phasing out preseason priors and wacky results produced quite a bit of movement.

Moving up

Here are the 15 teams that moved up at least 10 spots this week:

Wyoming: up 15 spots from 109th to 94th
West Virginia: up 14 spots from 72nd to 58th
Oklahoma State: up 13 spots from 26th to 13th
Vanderbilt: up 13 spots from 99th to 86th
Southern Miss: up 13 spots from 102nd to 89th
Duke: up 13 spots from 103rd to 90th
Middle Tennessee: up 13 spots from 108th to 95th
Washington: up 12 spots from 47th to 35th
UNLV: up 12 spots from 104th to 92nd
Boise State: up 11 spots from 56th to 45th
Washington State: up 10 spots from 69th to 59th
Coastal Carolina: up 10 spots from 80th to 70th
Tulsa: up 10 spots from 86th to 76th
Ball State: up 10 spots from 119th to 109th
Rice: up 10 spots from 120th to 110th

This list is an interesting mix of teams that produced stellar Week 3 performances (Wyoming, UNLV, Tulsa, Washington) and teams that have just left stronger-than-expected impressions, overachieving by a decent amount over the first three weeks (Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, Duke, Washington again). Other teams like Oklahoma (up 2.8 points), Temple (up 2.8), Kansas (up 2.6) and South Alabama (2.3) actually saw their ratings rise by quite a bit but didn't make this list because they didn't have enough teams to leapfrog.

Moving down

Here are the eight teams that moved down at least nine spots:

Nebraska: down 16 spots from 52nd to 68th
BYU: down 13 spots from 19th to 32nd
Georgia Tech: down 12 spots from 92nd to 104th
UTSA: down 12 spots from 59th to 71st
Michigan State: down 12 spots from 12th to 24th
Northwestern: down 11 spots from 88th to 99th
North Texas: down 11 spots from 87th to 98th
Air Force: down nine spots from 42nd to 51st

Aside from UTSA, all of these teams were terribly disappointing in Week 3, and UTSA's underlying stats in a loss to Texas were worse than the score indicated. Aside from the Roadrunners, it should surprise no one that these teams all dropped a decent amount. Houston (down 4.4 points), South Carolina (down 4.2), Fresno State (down 3.9) and Purdue (down 3.7) all saw their ratings drop by quite a bit, too, but didn't fall quite as far in the rankings.

Conference rankings

1. SEC: 15.2 average SP+ (35.7 average offensive SP+, 20.7 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 11.4 average (36.4 offense, 24.9 defense)
3. Big Ten: 10.3 average (31.7 offense, 21.4 defense)
4. ACC: 5.5 average (30.8 offense, 25.4 defense)
5. Pac-12: 4.7 average (30.2 offense, 25.5 defense)
6. AAC: -0.1 average (28.8 offense, 28.9 defense)
7. Sun Belt: -7.0 average (26.0 offense, 32.9 defense)
8. Mountain West: -8.5 average (21.1 offense, 29.6 defense)
9. Conference USA: -10.0 average (25.9 offense, 35.9 defense)
10. MAC: -12.3 average (25.7 offense, 38.0 defense)

Iffy performances from teams like Auburn, Arkansas and Florida dropped the SEC's overall average a bit, but No. 1 remains No. 1 here. Perhaps the most interesting development: The Big 12 jumped the Big Ten into second place, and by a decent amount. Texas Tech and Kansas State posted disappointing nonconference performances, but that was more than trumped by excellent games from Oklahoma, Kansas and, against drastically inferior competition, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The Big 12 is having itself some fun in its final seasons with Oklahoma and Texas, but those two teams are only part of the reason for the good ratings.