It's time. In less than a week, we will have actual college football games to watch for the first time in more than seven months. The longest offseason in the world is coming to an end. We've written and read all the previews and profiles. We've debated all the debates. Now there's only one thing left to do: make some projections!
Below are my final SP+ projections for the 2022 college football season. As mentioned previously , these are based on three primary factors: returning production (final rankings for which you can find at the bottom of this piece), recent recruiting and recent history. How good have you been recently? Who do you have coming back? How good are the players replacing those you don't have coming back? That's loosely what we ask when we're setting expectations for a team subjectively; it's also what these projections attempt to do objectively.
(Note: Some teams' projections have changed a bit compared to where they were in May, and it might not have anything to do with those factors above. I've also made a couple of tweaks to the SP+ formula itself, as I often do .)
As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
SP+ final 2022 preseason projections Team SP+ Off. SP+ Def. SP+ Proj. Wins Conf. Wins 1. Alabama 32.2 45.1 (2) 12.9 (4) 10.5 6.7 2. Georgia 30.5 41.7 (5) 11.3 (2) 10.6 6.8 3. Ohio St. 29.7 47.9 (1) 18.1 (15) 10.4 7.7 4. Oklahoma 22.5 41.9 (4) 19.4 (21) 9.8 7.1 5. Clemson 21.4 32.4 (39) 10.9 (1) 9.6 6.4 6. Michigan 21.4 39.9 (6) 18.6 (17) 9.6 6.7 7. Notre Dame 21.0 35.7 (18) 14.7 (7) 9.4 8. Texas A&M 19.5 32.2 (41) 12.7 (3) 8.0 4.5 9. Ole Miss 17.9 36.8 (11) 18.9 (19) 8.2 4.5 10. Tennessee 17.3 42.9 (3) 25.6 (58) 8.0 4.5 11. Kentucky 16.8 33.3 (31) 16.6 (10) 8.1 4.6 12. Utah 16.5 38.2 (9) 21.7 (38) 9.2 6.8 13. Penn St. 16.5 30.2 (48) 13.7 (6) 8.2 5.8 14. Arkansas 16.3 35.2 (22) 18.9 (18) 7.0 4.1 15. Michigan St. 16.1 35.5 (20) 19.4 (20) 8.2 5.6 16. Cincinnati 16.1 36.2 (16) 20.1 (29) 9.9 6.7 17. Wisconsin 15.6 28.9 (57) 13.3 (5) 8.4 5.6 18. NC St. 15.4 32.7 (35) 17.3 (13) 8.8 5.3 19. Oklahoma St. 14.9 34.8 (25) 19.8 (26) 8.3 5.7 20. Miss. St. 14.7 33.2 (33) 18.5 (16) 6.8 3.1 21. Auburn 14.4 32.1 (42) 17.7 (14) 6.6 3.3 22. Texas 14.4 38.6 (8) 24.2 (51) 7.5 5.6 23. Pittsburgh 14.4 39.2 (7) 24.9 (55) 8.9 5.8 24. Oregon 14.3 35.5 (19) 21.2 (36) 8.5 6.8 25. BYU 13.9 34.0 (28) 20.1 (28) 8.4 26. Florida 13.8 35.1 (23) 21.2 (35) 7.1 4.2 27. Iowa 13.3 28.2 (63) 15.0 (8) 7.6 5.1 28. LSU 13.2 32.7 (34) 19.5 (22) 6.5 3.1 29. Miami 13.2 36.2 (17) 22.9 (41) 8.4 5.3 30. Baylor 12.9 30.1 (50) 17.1 (11) 7.6 5.2 31. Minnesota 12.4 28.7 (59) 16.3 (9) 8.1 5.3 32. Houston 10.3 34.0 (27) 23.7 (46) 9.1 6.2 33. Kansas St. 10.0 29.6 (52) 19.5 (23) 7.0 4.6 34. Purdue 9.9 30.7 (45) 20.8 (32) 7.6 5.1 35. Boise St. 9.9 27.1 (69) 17.2 (12) 9.1 6.2 36. UCLA 9.8 36.7 (12) 26.9 (68) 8.6 5.8 37. S. Carolina 9.4 29.0 (56) 19.6 (24) 6.2 3.3 38. N. Carolina 9.4 36.4 (14) 27.1 (69) 7.3 4.8 39. Louisville 9.3 33.3 (32) 24.0 (50) 6.6 4.1 40. UCF 8.5 32.2 (40) 23.8 (47) 8.7 5.5 41. TCU 8.4 36.3 (15) 27.8 (74) 6.6 4.4 42. Florida St. 8.4 30.3 (47) 21.8 (39) 6.6 4.1 43. SMU 8.4 36.5 (13) 28.1 (78) 8.0 5.1 44. Nebraska 8.3 29.4 (53) 21.1 (33) 6.9 4.9 45. Fresno St. 7.9 31.2 (43) 23.3 (45) 9.5 6.4 46. USC 7.2 33.8 (30) 26.6 (65) 7.2 5.5 47. Wake Forest 7.0 38.0 (10) 31.0 (93) 7.3 4.1 48. Iowa St. 6.9 30.2 (49) 23.3 (43) 6.3 4.1 49. Texas Tech 6.3 32.6 (36) 26.3 (62) 5.6 3.9 50. Missouri 5.9 32.5 (37) 26.6 (64) 5.9 2.7 51. Arizona St. 5.8 27.0 (72) 21.2 (34) 7.1 5.1 52. UTSA 5.8 34.8 (24) 29.0 (83) 8.6 6.3 53. Air Force 4.9 28.1 (64) 23.3 (44) 8.9 5.8 54. Maryland 4.1 33.9 (29) 29.8 (89) 5.5 3.4 55. App. St. 4.1 30.3 (46) 26.2 (61) 8.4 5.8 56. Oregon St. 3.8 28.8 (58) 25.0 (57) 6.1 4.5 57. Washington 3.6 24.1 (85) 20.5 (30) 6.9 4.8 58. W. Virginia 3.3 27.8 (66) 24.5 (54) 5.0 3.3 59. SDSU 3.3 23.2 (91) 19.9 (27) 8.0 5.4 60. UAB 3.1 27.0 (71) 23.9 (49) 8.3 5.7 61. Va. Tech 2.6 23.4 (90) 20.7 (31) 6.6 3.9 62. Toledo 2.5 26.3 (75) 23.8 (48) 8.3 5.9 63. Memphis 1.8 30.0 (51) 28.2 (79) 7.2 4.5 64. Syracuse 1.8 26.1 (77) 24.4 (53) 5.2 2.7 65. Virginia 1.7 34.7 (26) 32.9 (105) 6.4 3.6 66. WKU 1.3 35.2 (21) 33.9 (112) 8.8 5.5 67. Marshall 1.0 28.3 (61) 27.3 (70) 7.7 4.9 68. Louisiana 0.7 25.0 (83) 24.3 (52) 8.7 6.0 69. Wash. St. 0.4 22.9 (93) 22.4 (40) 5.7 3.8 70. Boston Coll. 0.3 21.8 (100) 21.5 (37) 5.5 3.0 71. Coastal Caro. -0.3 32.5 (38) 32.8 (104) 7.8 5.1 72. Army -0.6 27.5 (68) 28.0 (77) 7.9 73. ECU -0.7 27.0 (70) 27.6 (73) 6.0 4.0 74. Stanford -1.0 28.2 (62) 29.3 (84) 4.4 3.0 75. Liberty -1.1 27.6 (67) 28.7 (82) 7.4 76. Georgia St. -1.5 26.0 (79) 27.5 (72) 6.6 4.8 77. Utah St. -1.8 29.1 (55) 31.0 (94) 6.9 5.0 78. California -2.0 17.7 (123) 19.8 (25) 5.4 3.7 79. Illinois -2.4 20.7 (104) 23.1 (42) 4.4 2.3 80. Rutgers -2.7 22.2 (96) 24.9 (56) 4.2 2.0 81. Tulane -4.0 30.8 (44) 34.8 (115) 5.4 2.7 82. CMU -4.0 28.6 (60) 32.6 (101) 6.8 4.9 83. Tulsa -4.3 24.0 (87) 28.4 (80) 5.5 3.4 84. NIU -4.3 29.4 (54) 33.7 (109) 6.9 4.7 85. Miami-OH -4.4 26.0 (78) 30.4 (90) 6.9 5.2 86. Indiana -5.0 21.9 (98) 26.9 (67) 3.4 2.0 87. Ga. Tech -5.5 26.9 (74) 32.4 (100) 3.4 2.1 88. N. Texas -5.6 26.3 (76) 31.9 (99) 6.5 4.3 89. Northwestern -5.6 20.2 (107) 25.9 (60) 3.5 1.6 90. USF -5.7 26.9 (73) 32.6 (102) 4.2 2.8 91. Troy -7.0 19.4 (113) 26.4 (63) 6.0 4.3 92. Colorado -7.1 20.8 (103) 28.0 (76) 2.8 2.3 93. ODU -7.5 26.0 (80) 33.5 (107) 5.0 3.7 94. JMU -7.5 23.8 (89) 31.4 (95) 5.5 3.9 95. SJSU -7.6 18.1 (121) 25.6 (59) 6.4 4.0 96. Colorado St. -7.6 19.7 (109) 27.3 (71) 5.6 4.0 97. WMU -7.7 21.9 (99) 29.7 (87) 5.4 3.9 98. EMU -8.4 25.8 (81) 34.3 (113) 6.2 4.0 99. FAU -8.5 22.9 (92) 31.4 (97) 5.6 4.1 100. MTSU -8.6 24.0 (86) 32.6 (103) 5.7 3.8 101. So. Miss -9.1 17.6 (124) 26.7 (66) 5.8 4.1 102. UTEP -9.5 18.5 (120) 27.9 (75) 6.0 4.2 103. Kansas -10.4 24.9 (84) 35.3 (116) 2.8 1.0 104. Arizona -10.5 19.2 (115) 29.7 (88) 2.7 1.9 105. Navy -10.8 18.5 (119) 29.3 (85) 3.3 2.1 106. Buffalo -11.1 22.7 (94) 33.9 (111) 5.5 3.6 107. Kent St. -11.1 28.0 (65) 39.2 (126) 5.0 3.8 108. Vanderbilt -11.3 19.7 (111) 31.0 (92) 2.4 0.5 109. S. Alabama -11.3 19.3 (114) 30.6 (91) 5.7 4.1 110. Ball St. -11.4 20.4 (105) 31.8 (98) 5.4 3.1 111. Wyoming -11.7 17.6 (125) 29.3 (86) 4.5 2.9 112. Ohio -12.4 19.1 (116) 31.4 (96) 5.2 3.7 113. Charlotte -12.6 25.2 (82) 37.9 (121) 4.7 3.5 114. BGSU -12.7 20.3 (106) 33.0 (106) 4.5 3.4 115. La. Tech -12.9 23.8 (88) 36.7 (119) 4.5 3.4 116. Nevada -13.4 20.9 (102) 34.4 (114) 4.4 2.3 117. UNLV -13.9 19.6 (112) 33.5 (108) 4.2 2.7 118. Ga. Southern -14.0 19.7 (110) 33.7 (110) 3.8 2.1 119. Duke -16.0 22.5 (95) 38.5 (123) 2.9 1.0 120. Rice -16.7 18.8 (118) 35.5 (117) 3.1 2.1 121. Arkansas St. -17.0 22.1 (97) 39.1 (125) 4.6 2.9 122. Texas St. -18.8 20.1 (108) 38.9 (124) 4.3 2.3 123. Hawaii -19.2 21.4 (101) 40.6 (129) 3.9 2.0 124. Temple -19.4 16.5 (126) 35.9 (118) 3.3 1.1 125. New Mexico -20.8 7.7 (131) 28.5 (81) 2.7 1.2 126. UL-Monroe -21.3 19.0 (117) 40.3 (128) 2.5 1.9 127. Akron -22.0 15.4 (127) 37.4 (120) 2.7 1.8 128. UConn -24.9 13.5 (129) 38.4 (122) 2.5 129. FIU -26.2 18.0 (122) 44.3 (131) 3.0 1.1 130. UMass -26.5 15.1 (128) 41.7 (130) 2.6 131. NMSU -27.4 12.0 (130) 39.4 (127) 3.2