The Mountain West improved dramatically in 2021, raising its average SP+ rating from minus-6.0 in 2020 to +0.1, putting the conference within shouting distance of the Pac-12 (2.6). Following up on that rousing success, however, will require a lot of new stars to emerge.
The conference has the lowest average returning production of any league for this fall, but that could be great news for the top dogs in the West division: Fresno State returns lots of star power and San Diego State isn't far behind, so last year's top two looks a lot like this year's top two.
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 131 FBS teams. The previews will include 2021 breakdowns, 2022 previews and burning questions for each team.
2021 recap
What was projected to be a four-team race in 2021 -- defending champion San Jose State, Nevada, Fresno State and San Diego State were extremely close in terms of average projected win totals -- instead saw two teams separate from the pack. Fresno State was projected 82nd overall but showed a high ceiling right from the start, beating UCLA and nearly doing the same to Oregon. Kalen DeBoer's Bulldogs finished a lofty 33rd overall but suffered a fluky loss at Hawai'i and no-showed against Boise State. So despite a road win over SDSU, the Bulldogs finished a game back of the Aztecs, who rode Matt Araiza's otherworldly punting and yet another brilliant defense (12th in defensive SP+) to a 7-1 conference record.
Media favorite Nevada was eliminated from contention by a trio of two-point losses (and then lost head coach Jay Norvell and a number of contributors to Colorado State). And SJSU's title defense never got off the ground: Quarterback Nick Starkel missed a big chunk of the season to injury and never returned to his 2020 form, and the Spartans lost their last three games to finish 5-7.
Hawai'i showed occasional quality in a 6-7 campaign, but players rebelled against head coach Todd Graham, eventually prompting his resignation. And if there's such a thing as an encouraging 2-10 season, UNLV experienced it, giving Fresno State, SDSU and MWC champion Utah State hell in close losses and winning two of its last four games.
2022 projections
Since Fresno State finished 2021 ahead of the pack, per SP+, and returns star quarterback Jake Haener, it makes sense that the Bulldogs would start out on top again. But a coaching change -- DeBoer left for Washington, and the school brought back former coach Jeff Tedford -- leaves things a bit up for grabs if either SDSU or an unexpected upstart can take advantage.
With both Nevada and Hawai'i undergoing massive roster churn (they take up the bottom two spots in February's returning production rankings), said upstart would probably have to be either a retooling SJSU or UNLV. Considering UNLV has reached six wins just once in the past 18 seasons, a Rebels run would be quite a shock. Anything's possible, but this feels like a two-team race again.
Burning questions
Can Jeff Tedford pick up where Kalen DeBoer left off? Tedford helped modernize Oregon's offense in the early 2000s then briefly turned California into a top-10 program. He dealt with heart issues after leaving Berkeley, but after time away and a year in the CFL, he announced his return to the college ranks by immediately turning Fresno State around. After crumbling to 4-20 over the 2015 and 2016 campaigns, the Bulldogs went 22-6 in Tedford's first two seasons. But after a reset year in 2019 -- the team lost a ton of key contributors then suffered five one-score losses in a 4-8 campaign -- Tedford resigned for health reasons.
He is evidently rested and ready once more. The 60-year-old takes over for DeBoer, who went 3-3 in an abbreviated 2020 season then unleashed a ferocious offense on a defense-heavy league in 2021. DeBoer leaves plenty of quality players for Tedford too: 4,000-yard quarterback Haener (who briefly entered the transfer portal before Tedford, his original coach at Fresno, came back to town), explosive wide receiver Josh Kelly, slot man Jalen Cropper, utility man Jordan Mims (710 rushing yards, 324 receiving yards) and four starters up front.
Tedford handed the reins of the defense to an extremely seasoned hand: veteran Kevin Doyle was Fresno State's defensive coordinator from 1997 to 2000 and already had nearly 20 years of experience by that point. He'll have an experienced D at his disposal. The line loses four of the six players who got at least 225 snaps last year, but end David Perales is a star, and the Bulldogs are loaded at linebacker and defensive back.
This should be the team to beat in the West, at least if Tedford still has his fastball. We won't know if that's the case until we see the Bulldogs on the field. With early games against Oregon State and USC, they'll have a chance to make noise if they're ready.
Will the San Diego State offense ever carry its weight again? Don Coryell perfected his nascent Air Coryell passing attack at SDSU before taking it to the pros. Marshall Faulk produced more than 5,500 yards from scrimmage in three years there, twice finishing in the top five for the Heisman Trophy. Until the 2010s, whatever success the Aztecs had seemed to extend from a prolific offense. To say the least, that has changed.
SDSU's defensive SP+ ranking over each of the past four years: 24th, 15th, 7th, 12th. Outstanding.
Their special teams rankings in that span: 16th, 10th, 42nd, 15th. Excellent.
Their offensive rankings: 92nd, 122nd, 119th, 92nd. Horrid.
The school employed Rocky Long, progenitor of the now-trendy 3-3-5 defense, from 2009 to 2019. He served as Brady Hoke's defensive coordinator for two years before taking over as head coach in 2011 when Hoke left for Michigan, and the better his defenses got, the worse his conservative offenses became. Long left two seasons ago, but things have remained exactly the same since Hoke returned for a second go-round.
Now, the Aztecs have won double-digit games for five of the past seven seasons; this recipe can work, especially when you have ridiculous defensive talent (end Cameron Thomas had 27 tackles for loss in 2021) and the best punting known to man. Araiza's boots were worth an extra first down at the end of every offensive drive. But Thomas and Araiza are both gone, and while loads of defensive talent remains -- end Keshawn Banks and tackle Jonah Tavai combined for 33 more TFLs and 13.5 sacks, linebacker Caden McDonald is everywhere, safety Patrick McMorris defensed 13 passes -- it's fair to think that the Aztecs will regress from a field position standpoint. If they are going to overachieve projections and win another West crown, they'll need more from an offense that has to replace leading rusher Greg Bell, three starting linemen and three of the four receivers who caught more than 20 passes.
There are still some building blocks. Virginia Tech transfer quarterback Braxton Burmeister takes too many sacks but contributes well to the run game and throws a solid deep ball. Chance Bell's rushing averages were basically the same as Greg Bell's. And while the line is working through turnover, it will at least be enormous: Oklahoma State transfer Cade Bennett is 6-foot-3 and 315 pounds, and a couple of well-touted redshirt freshmen (Ross Ulugalu-Maseuli and Josh Simmons) are 6-foot-4 and 340 pounds and 6-foot-6 and 330 pounds, respectively. SDSU will undoubtedly keep trying to lean on opponents with its run game, and it shouldn't be any less effective, at least. But it will need to show more upside if a repeat division title is in the offing.
Who creates more Year 0 promise, Timmy Chang at Hawai'i or Ken Wilson at Nevada? One of the lasting lessons from my returning production measure through the years: If you return less than 50% of your previous season's production, your odds of regression are extremely high.
Hawai'i returns 33% and Nevada 27%. These are the worst two marks in FBS at the moment. Hawai'i lost quarterback Chevan Cordeiro (SJSU), big-play wideout Nick Mardner (Cincinnati), defensive end Jonah Laulu (Oklahoma) and others to the transfer portal amid allegations of player mistreatment, which eventually led to Todd Graham's resignation. Nevada, meanwhile, lost coach Jay Norvell to conference rival Colorado State then watched quite a few players follow him to Fort Collins via the portal. Combined with star quarterback Carson Strong leaving for the pros, this did massive damage to the Wolf Pack depth chart.
These two teams combined for 14 wins last season and are projected to combine for just 7.8 this time around.
Hawai'i asked a familiar face to restore luster. Timmy Chang threw for 17,072 yards at Hawai'i in the early 2000s and spent the past few years as a position coach for Norvell's offense at Nevada. The 40-year-old has never been a head coach, and his only coordinator experience was brief and at the FCS and Division II levels. This is clearly a big leap up for him, but he has charisma, and he is busy trying to reinforce the togetherness of the squad.
This is where the BRADDAHHOOD starts 💚 #Ohana pic.twitter.com/h34oq1DOkT
— Timmy Chang (@CoachTimmyChang) February 14, 2022
Similarly, Ken Wilson is in his first head-coaching gig. The 57-year-old spent nearly 20 years as a Chris Ault assistant at Nevada then moved to Mike Leach's staff at Washington State and Mario Cristobal's at Oregon. He too is a charismatic former position coach making a big leap.
Does either have any chance of early success? Chang inherits a few solid linemen, including left guard Micah Vanterpool and defensive tackle Blessman Ta'ala, and running back Dedrick Parson is a solid dual threat. Chang's likely starting quarterback will be either sophomore Brayden Schager or Washington State transfer Cammon Cooper. Wilson, meanwhile, has hit the transfer portal harder, bringing in Oklahoma State quarterback Shane Illingworth, Arizona wide receiver BJ Casteel and blue-chip Michigan defensive back Darion Green-Warren, among others. Wilson also inherits an excellent defensive tackle in Dom Peterson. The upside might be a little higher in Reno, but both of these programs have to dig out of quite a hole.
Can transfers save the San Jose State offense? Brent Brennan led SJSU on a blessed run in 2020; the Spartans rolled to a 7-0 regular season and won their first outright conference title since Terry Shea's team won the Big West in 1990. Stars like quarterback Nick Starkel and defensive end Cade Hall chose to #RunItBack in 2021 and shoot for a second title, but it didn't work out too well. The defense improved to 56th in defensive SP+, but the offense collapsed to 102nd. Starkel and his receivers were all-or-nothing, the run game gave up a ton of negative plays and sloppiness was overwhelming: SJSU turned the ball over at least twice in nine games after doing so just once in 2020. Nothing went according to plan, and SJSU went 5-7.
The defense should return loads of experience and upside, from end Viliami Fehoko to linebacker Kyle Harmon to ace corner Nehemiah Shelton. A top-50 defensive SP+ ranking is absolutely a possibility. But any hope for the offense will require some interdivision transfers to make a huge early impact. Chevan Cordeiro threw for 2,793 yards at Hawai'i in 2021 -- and not including sacks, he contributed 515 yards to the run game, as well. He'll compete with Nick Nash for the starting job, and Brennan brought over two Nevada wideouts too: Sophomore Justin Lockhart averaged 13.4 yards per catch last season, while Elijah Cooks posted 926 yards in 2019 before struggling to stay on the field the past two years. There's no guarantee of improvement here, but if SJSU can be a hair more efficient and cut the turnovers down to a rational level, the defense could carry the Spartans back to a bowl.
Can UNLV build on late-2021 progress? UNLV had its moments in 2021, Marcus Arroyo's second season in charge. The Rebels beat New Mexico and Hawai'i by two touchdowns each and indeed scared three MWC heavyweights.
The Rebels also lost by 45 to Iowa State, by 31 to Nevada and by 34 to Air Force, and they fell to Eastern Washington of the FCS. Vague promise or not, Arroyo's Las Vegas residency has begun with a 2-16 record.
The 2021 team leaned quite a bit on youth -- quarterback Cameron Friel, wide receivers Steve Jenkins and Kyle Williams, center Leif Fautanu and cornerbacks Cameron Oliver and Nohl Williams were all underclassmen -- and Arroyo has attempted to supplement the depth chart with some power-conference transfers (Tennessee quarterback Harrison Bailey and Michigan State big-play receiver Ricky White, among others). You can find hope here if you squint, but there's probably still a long way to go.
My 10 favorite players in the division
DE Viliami Fehoko, San Jose State. Cade Hall was supposed to be the star of the SJSU line last year, but Fehoko exploded for 17 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and 14 run stuffs. He and big Noah Wright (seven TFLs, 11 stuffs) will make it awfully hard to run on the Spartans.
LB Levelle Bailey, Fresno State. One of the most havoc-heavy linebackers in the league, Bailey is good at blitzing (18% pressure rate), and he's great in coverage (10.3 QBR allowed).
DE Keshawn Banks, San Diego State. Even without Cameron Thomas, the Aztecs still have a sure thing at defensive end. Banks combined five sacks with 13 run stuffs last season, and since Thomas won't be around to gobble up sacks, Banks is almost guaranteed a few more this time around.
QB Jake Haener, Fresno State. In 19 games as Bulldogs starter, Haener has thrown for 6,117 yards and 47 touchdowns, and when he avoids turnovers, Fresno State wins: He's thrown three interceptions in 13 wins and 11 in six losses.
DT Blessman Ta'ala, Hawai'i. The Hawai'i two-deep is a shell of its 2021 self, but the Warriors still have one of the best 300-pounders in the league. Ta'ala is a sure tackler who had 10 run stuffs and eight TFLs, and lord knows he'll get as many opportunities as possible to make plays in 2022.
WR Steve Jenkins, UNLV. UNLV struggled with drops in 2021, but Jenkins was a lovely safety valve, dropping only two passes all season and averaging 15.1 yards per catch out of the slot. He's the surest thing for an offense that could use as much sureness as possible.
RB Dedrick Parson, Hawai'i. I love dual threats, and Parson, a Howard transfer, is exactly that. He isn't particularly explosive, but he's a one-man possession offense: He enjoyed a 56% success rate rushing the ball and averaged 10 yards per catch over about 3-4 targets per game out of the backfield.
LB Kyle Harmon, San Jose State. Wherever the ball goes, there he is. Harmon attempted 11 tackles per game but missed only 12 tackles all season. If the Spartans' front can be as disruptive as it was last year, Harmon will end up with another prolific season.
C Alama Uluave, San Diego State. There are some inexperienced lines in this division, but the 6-2, 305-pound Uluave should remain a rock for the run-heavy Aztecs, as should returning tackle Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson (6-6, 320).
S Tyson Williams, Nevada. The West doesn't return a ton of proven secondary talent, but Williams could be in line for a big breakthrough. As the Wolf Pack's No. 3 safety, he combined four run stuffs with seven passes defensed (three INTs, four passes broken up). He generated pressure on one third of his blitzes, and when isolated in coverage, he forced an incompletion 24% of the time. Those are huge numbers.
Anniversaries
In 1977, 45 years ago, San Diego State destroyed Bobby Bowden's Florida State Seminoles on the way to a 10-1 finish and No. 16 final ranking. This was the last year of an incredible 12-year run that saw the Aztecs enjoy eight zero- or one-loss seasons under first Don Coryell, then Claude Gilbert. They went on a 30-1-1 run, moved up to Division 1, won 36 games in four years, lost Coryell to the NFL, then went 45-8-2 under Gilbert. If the proposed 12-team College Football Playoff had been in place in the 1970s, SDSU would have made multiple appearances.
Unfortunately, this incredible run would come to an end after 1977. Aiming to recruit more four-year students instead of transfers and JUCO players, Gilbert went just 16-18 from 1978-80, and the school controversially fired him. It would take an awfully long time to recover: While Gilbert would go on to win a pair of Big West titles at San Jose State in the 1980s, the Aztecs would bowl just three times, with zero nine-win seasons, from 1978 to 2009.
In 1992, 30 years ago, Nevada went 7-5 in its first FBS season. Having ushered the program back up to the top level of the sport, head coach Chris Ault retired to focus on his job as athletic director. He returned just one year later, won 18 games in two years, and retired again ... only to return again in 2004, revolutionize the sport with his Pistol formation, introduce the world to Colin Kaepernick and finally quit for good in 2012.
In 2007, 15 years ago, Hawai'i unleashed a 12-0 regular season and qualified for the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. The Rainbow Warriors would get pummeled in New Orleans, but it only slightly dampened a season that featured 4,343 passing yards from Colt Brennan, wins over Boise State and Washington and a program-best No. 19 finish in the AP poll.
In 2012, 10 years ago, San Jose State surged in the WAC. The Spartans had gone a combined 8-29 over the previous three seasons and had bowled only once in the previous 21 years, but under third-year head coach Mike MacIntyre (now at FIU) they leaped to 11-2, finishing ranked for the first time. They joined the MWC the next season and won their first conference title in their new league in 2020.
In 2017, five years ago, Jeff Tedford took over at Fresno State for the first time. The Bulldogs immediately flipped from 1-11 to 10-4. Tedford doesn't have nearly as much rebuilding work to do this time around.