You no longer have to feign excitement about the College Football Playoff selections, the New Year's Six bowl pairings or the entire rundown of bowl matchups.
The most exciting part of the first Sunday in December is here: my instant bowl predictions for all 44 games over the next five weeks.
There might have been a time when I dreaded doing these, especially amid all the news in the sport. But as the years have gone on, I have warmed to this exercise, mainly because I've improved at it. Indeed, last year's truncated bowl quick picks produced a 18-8 record, coming off my 32-9 bonanza in 2019. Sure, there were some off-base forecasts (Louisiana Tech over Georgia Southern, Houston over Hawai'i), but also some strong ones (Oklahoma State over Miami with close score predictions).
I'm even getting a few emails from people wagering on my picks (not recommended).
The easy part about my predictions is that they're straight up, and are made before most point spreads are listed. The challenge here is the timing, both the expediency of making picks and not fully knowing about player opt-outs, coaching changes and other factors that will impact the matchups. As always, motivation level is a big part of the assessment.
With those disclaimers out of the way, the time has arrived.
Ready, set, bowl!
All times Eastern.
College Football Playoff
CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Jim Harbaugh's mission to build Michigan into a team that would truly reflect his personality took longer than expected, but it has happened. The Wolverines will make their CFP debut against a team that largely resembles them. Like Michigan with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, Georgia boasts elite defensive linemen such as Jordan Davis. Both teams are built around multiple rushing options, talented tight end play and unheralded but effective quarterbacks in Cade McNamara (Michigan) and Stetson Bennett IV (Georgia). Will Georgia consider a QB change after Bennett's struggles in the SEC title game? Coach Kirby Smart must guard against an Alabama hangover, or Georgia's four-decades-long national title drought will add another painful year. Michigan played its best football down the stretch and will outlast Georgia in a defensive struggle behind two Hutchinson-forced turnovers.
Prediction: Michigan 24, Georgia 21
Result: Georgia 34, Michigan 11
CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Cincinnati's reward for its historic CFP appearance is an Alabama team finally hitting its stride behind likely Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young at quarterback. The Bearcats won't be intimidated, though, as they showed against Georgia in last year's Peach Bowl. Quarterback Desmond Ridder will have some success stretching the field, and "Sauce" Gardner, Coby Bryant and Cincinnati's defense give the team a chance against a John Metchie-less Alabama receiving corps. But Young will prove to be the difference, especially in the second half, and will hit some deep shots to put Alabama in front for good.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Cincinnati 27
Result: Alabama 27, Cincinnati 6
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T: Michigan Wolverines vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Who could have imagined before the season that Michigan would play not one but two championship games at Lucas Oil Stadium? The first CFP national title game in the Midwest will feature an incredible atmosphere and two of the most recognizable coaches in all of football. Michigan will need to replicate its Ohio State game plan, dominating the line of scrimmage and limiting deep passes from Alabama's Bryce Young, ideally with pressure from Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. But Young isn't going to be stopped this season and will find enough holes in the Michigan secondary. The Wolverines won't generate enough in the run game and their quarterbacks will make a few too many mistakes to take down the Tide. Alabama will repeat as national champion for the second time under coach Nick Saban, who further solidifies his status as the best to ever walk the college sideline.
Prediction: Alabama 33, Michigan 21
Result: Georgia 33, Alabama 18
Results
Dec. 17
Bahamas Bowl: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Toledo Rockets
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
After several heartbreaking losses early this season, especially at Notre Dame, Toledo steadied itself late to win four of its final five contests. Both teams are driven by defense, but Toledo seemingly has an edge with three first-team All-MAC selections, led by dynamic pass-rusher Jamal Hines (10 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, 8 pass breakups). Safety Gregory Grate Jr. and an opportunistic Middle Tennessee defense (17 interceptions, tied for third nationally) will keep this game close, but Toledo standout running back Bryant Koback rushes for two second-half touchdowns and the Rockets prevail.
Prediction: Toledo 31, Middle Tennessee 23
Result: Middle Tennessee 31, Toledo 24
Cure Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
NIU lived on the edge for much of the season, winning seven games by a single score. Then, the Huskies absolutely dominated high-powered Kent State in the MAC title game, storming out to a 24-3 lead and prevailing 41-23. Coastal Carolina has been the more complete team for much of the season, but the Chanticleers also suffered close losses to Appalachian State and Georgia State. I love what coach Thomas Hammock is doing at his alma mater, but quarterback Grayson McCall, wide receiver Jaivon Heiligh and tight end Isaiah Likely will be too much as a senior-laden Chants team pulls away.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 38, Northern Illinois 21
Result: Coastal Carolina 47, Northern Illinois 41
Dec. 18
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
The Conference USA and Sun Belt runners-up meet up in a matchup that simply oozes offense. If you haven't seen Western Kentucky quarterback Bailey Zappe, wide receiver Jerreth Sterns and the Hilltoppers, don't miss this chance. Appalachian State can score in bunches, too, as Duke transfer Chase Brice has 3,020 pass yards and 23 touchdowns. The Mountaineers are a much more balanced team, too, and a defense ranked No. 16 in efficiency makes several key stops. Coordinator Frank Ponce's offense surges and Appalachian State keeps its all-time bowl record perfect.
Prediction: Appalachian State 48, Western Kentucky 35
Result: Western Kentucky 59, Appalachian State 38
Cricket Celebration Bowl: South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Jackson State Tigers
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
There's simply no way I'm picking against Coach Prime in Atlanta. Deion Sanders will lead a surging Jackson State team, which won its final nine games -- six by double digits -- after a 2-1 start. Not surprisingly, Sanders has Jackson State's defense playing at an extremely high level. Linebacker James Houston IV is a playmaking machine -- 14.5 sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss, 7 forced fumbles -- and will make things tough for South Carolina State, along with a young secondary featuring Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig and Shilo Sanders. South Carolina State (24.4 points per game) will need to find some offense or this one will get ugly.
Prediction: Jackson State 30, South Carolina State 17
Result: South Carolina State 31, Jackson State 10
New Mexico Bowl: UTEP Miners vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Fresno State is the far superior team, but the Bulldogs have lost their head coach (Kalen DeBoer) to Washington and their star quarterback (Jake Haener) to the transfer portal. How they respond for a bowl game will shape how things play out in Albuquerque, as UTEP certainly will be more excited to show up. The Miners appear in their first bowl since 2014. Ultimately, Fresno State will lean on a defense that allowed just 16 points in the final two games and shut out Wyoming last month. Look for linemen David Perales and Kevin Atkins to apply pressure, and safety Evan Williams to make plays in the back end against quarterback Gavin Hardison and UTEP.
Prediction: Fresno State 34, UTEP 20
Result: Fresno State 31, UTEP 24
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: UAB Blazers vs. BYU Cougars
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
BYU soon will be able to enjoy higher-profile bowl placements as a Big 12 member, but the Cougars will be in Shreveport to face an always-tricky UAB team coached by Bill Clark. The big question for the Cougars will be motivation, as they can still post their second consecutive 11-win season. BYU is a more mature team than most, and will find a way to grind out a victory behind bruising sophomore running back Tyler Allgeier, who has been excellent down the stretch. Allgeier rumbles for two second-half touchdowns and the Cougars finish 11-2.
Prediction: BYU 35, UAB 23
Result: UAB 31, BYU 28
LendingTree Bowl: Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Liberty Flames
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
Both teams come in at 7-5 but are feeling different about their seasons. Eastern Michigan won three of its final five games to reach its third bowl in six seasons under Chris Creighton, among the nation's most underrated coaches. Liberty ended the season with three double-digit losses, although coach Hugh Freeze still got a sweet new contract. If Flames standout quarterback Malik Willis plays, he'll be a handful for an EMU defense that had some struggles against the pass this season. I like the Eagles' motivation level more, though, and Creighton's teams have shown they can win in different ways. EMU with the upset.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 38, Liberty 35
Result: Liberty 56, Eastern Michigan 20
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl: Utah State Aggies vs. Oregon State Beavers
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
The Beavers are bowling for the first time under coach Jonathan Smith, and the first time overall since the 2013 season. Oregon State has a signature win over Pac-12 champion Utah but didn't finish the season nearly as well as Utah State, which thumped San Diego State to win its first Mountain West title since 2012. Other than a no-show against Wyoming, coach Blake Anderson's Aggies team played very complete football down the stretch. Oregon State's defense isn't reliable enough to get my pick here, as I like Logan Bonner (3,560 pass yards, 36 touchdowns) and Deven Thompkins (96 receptions for 1,589 yards) to have big days in L.A.
Prediction: Utah State 39, Oregon State 35
Result: Utah State 24, Oregon State 13
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
Louisiana will be without Billy Napier, as he has moved on to his new duties at Florida. But new Ragin' Cajuns coach Michael Desormeaux should provide a smooth transition, especially given his deep roots with the program. Desormeaux will make his head-coaching debut before a likely partisan crowd in nearby New Orleans, as a senior-laden Louisiana team aims for its 12th win. Marshall had a solid first season under coach Charles Huff, especially on defense, but too many factors favor the Ragin' Cajuns in this one. Both defenses show out, but Louisiana pass-rusher Chauncey Manac (10.5 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss) and his team record win No. 12.
Prediction: Louisiana 26, Marshall 20
Result: Louisiana 36, Marshall 21
Dec. 20
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Both of these teams looked done by midseason, especially Old Dominion, which then rallied to win its final five games. Monarchs quarterback Hayden Wolff played much better down the stretch but will face a tricky Tulsa defense, coordinated by Joseph Gillespie, which played well in the second half of the season. The game likely comes down to which Davis Brin shows up for Tulsa, as the quarterback has six games with multiple interceptions. Old Dominion doesn't force many takeaways, though, and Tulsa comes off its best win of the season over SMU. Philip Montgomery's team wins a close one.
Prediction: Tulsa 34, Old Dominion 31
Result: Tulsa 30, Old Dominion 17
Dec. 21
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
You can bet Wyoming defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel will study the game plan Northern Illinois used to slow down MAC Player of the Year Dustin Crum and the Kent State offense in the league title game. Wyoming's defense has shown up more often than not this season, but the offense has been much less consistent other than in a win over Utah State. I like the location for Wyoming, but Crum and the Golden Flashes will be motivated to record their second consecutive bowl victory. Kent State finds enough offense to win this one.
Prediction: Kent State 33, Wyoming 26
Result: Wyoming 52, Kent State 38
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl: UTSA Roadrunners vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
Jeff Traylor's amazing Roadrunners try to cap a dream season and finish 13-1, following a Conference USA championship Friday. The motivation and location strongly favor UTSA, which should bring a large contingent of fans from San Antonio to Frisco. San Diego State, meanwhile, must travel to Texas after a disheartening performance against Utah State in the Mountain West championship game. The Aztecs are excellent on defense and boast a solid run game led by Greg Bell. But his 1,400-yard counterpart at UTSA, Sincere McCormick, and the Roadrunners won't be denied in this one. Meep meep!
Prediction: UTSA 35, San Diego State 30
Result: San Diego State 38, UTSA 24
Dec. 22
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Missouri Tigers vs. Army Black Knights
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
If this matchup had happened midseason, Missouri seemingly wouldn't have had much of a chance. The Tigers' run defense was beyond dreadful, leading to a change on the defensive staff. But Missouri improved significantly against the run later on, holding both South Carolina and Florida to less than 100 yards on the ground. Army will provide a big test, though, as the Knights rank second nationally in rushing (301.2 yards per game). Other than the Wake Forest loss, Army's defense has been solid, although Missouri is capable of attacking in multiple ways. Coach Jeff Monken is 3-0 in Dallas-area bowl games, and gets another win.
Prediction: Army 32, Missouri 28
Result: Army 24, Missouri 22
Dec. 23
Frisco Football Classic: North Texas Mean Green vs. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
A new bowl! How exciting. North Texas will be thrilled to participate after saving its season -- and most likely coach Seth Littrell's job -- with five consecutive wins to close the season, capped by a 45-23 triumph against previously unbeaten UTSA. The Mean Green's defense really stepped up, as did the run game behind Ikaika Ragsdale and DeAndre Torrey. Miami also has been solid on defense, led by first-team All-MAC honorees Kameron Butler and Ivan Pace Jr. Expect a competitive matchup won in the final minute by a North Texas field goal.
Prediction: North Texas 31, Miami (Ohio) 29
Result: Miami (Ohio) 27, North Texas 14
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Florida Gators
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
In July, the teams finally got a series on the books beginning in 2024, but the bowl gods can't wait that long. Knights coach Gus Malzahn and his players will be amped up to face the Gators, who likely won't share the same motivation level after struggling to finish 6-6. UCF won five of its final six games and played very well on defense, but the stretch came against the bottom of the AAC. Plus, quarterback Dillon Gabriel entered the transfer portal. Still, it's hard to look at Florida and not see a team ready to move on to 2022 and the Billy Napier era in Gainesville. I'm going with the Gators, but if this were a confidence pool, I'd rank this 1.
Prediction: Florida 37, UCF 30
Result: UCF 29, Florida 17
Dec. 25
Camellia Bowl: Georgia State Panthers vs. Ball State Cardinals
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
After a 1-4 start that featured some ugly losses, Georgia State engineered a very impressive turnaround. The Panthers won six of their final seven games, losing only to Sun Belt champion Louisiana by four. First-team All-Sun Belt cornerback Antavious Lane (four interceptions) led the defense, and Georgia State ran the ball effectively with Jamyest Williams and Tucker Gregg. Ball State struggled in its MAC title defense, meanwhile, despite solid quarterback play from Drew Plitt. The location, team trajectory and potential motivation level point toward Georgia State, which records its third bowl win under coach Shawn Elliott.
Prediction: Georgia State 30, Ball State 21
Result: Georgia State 51, Ball State 20
Dec. 27
Quick Lane Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Ford Field (Detroit)
The combination of location and personnel availability strongly favors Western Michigan here. Nevada star quarterback Carson Strong, an NFL prospect, is weighing whether to play as he has battled a knee injury since high school. Strong could understandably skip the game, and coach Jay Norvell will be challenged to get his team amped up to play in Detroit two days after Christmas. Western Michigan beat ACC champion Pitt in September and comes off a win against MAC champion Northern Illinois last month. Although the Broncos were consistent in the second half of the season, their triple-threat combination of quarterback Kaleb Eleby, running back Sean Tyler and wide receiver Skyy Moore will show up in a big way in Motown.
Prediction: Western Michigan 38, Nevada 30
Result: Western Michigan 52, Nevada 24
Dec. 28
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl: Houston Cougars vs. Auburn Tigers
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Houston should win this game. The Cougars were much more consistent throughout the season. Doug Belk's defense nicely complemented the offense, and Houston has the nation's best returner on special teams in Marcus Jones. Coach Dana Holgorsen's bowl record concerns me, though, as he has dropped six of seven bowls since a dominant Orange Bowl triumph at West Virginia a decade ago. Auburn certainly looks ready to move on to 2022, and recently dumped offensive coordinator Mike Bobo. The location favors the Tigers, though, and their defense could certainly slow down Clayton Tune and the Cougars.
Prediction: Houston 26, Auburn 23
Result: Houston 17, Auburn 13
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Air Force Falcons vs. Louisville Cardinals
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Air Force has quietly put together a strong season, going 9-3 with single-digit losses to the top two Mountain West teams (Utah State and San Diego State) and Army. The Falcons also are a balanced team, showing they can win with defense (24-17 over Boise State) or with offensive prowess (41-39 over Nevada). Louisville got bowl eligible by beating weaker ACC opponents and outlasting UCF on a pick-six in the closing seconds. The trajectory for Scott Satterfield's program is not overly promising right now. Air Force should have a strong contingent of fans in Dallas, while I'm not sure how interested Louisville will be for this game.
Prediction: Air Force 36, Louisville 24
Result: Air Force 31, Louisville 28
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
Those bowl executives are a sneaky bunch, aren't they? Mississippi State coach Mike Leach faces his former team, where he built his national reputation with exciting offense and odd commentary. The Bulldogs and Red Raiders have similar records, but Mississippi State's profile is more impressive with wins over Texas A&M, NC State and Kentucky. After a tough loss in the Egg Bowl, Will Rogers responds with four touchdown passes as Leach doesn't hold back much against a transitioning Texas Tech squad. Leach improves to 9-8 in bowls.
Prediction: Mississippi State 38, Texas Tech 20
Result: Texas Tech 34, Mississippi State 7
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl: UCLA Bruins vs. NC State Wolfpack
Petco Park (San Diego)
Canceled, COVID-19
UCLA has made only one previous Holiday Bowl appearance (2012), which is one more than NC State. The Bruins didn't produce the breakthrough season that they hoped for in Year 4 under Chip Kelly, but they finished with three straight wins and can record their first bowl victory since 2015. The location certainly favors UCLA, as NC State will be traveling across the country, but the matchup leans toward the Wolfpack, who boast a significantly better defense than the Bruins. NC State should be able to make enough stops against Zach Charbonnet and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I don't see UCLA keeping Wolfpack quarterback Devin Leary (3,433 pass yards, 35 touchdowns) in check. Leary throws four touchdowns and NC State wins.
Prediction: NC State 41, UCLA 35
Result: Game canceled, COVID-19
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Chase Field (Phoenix)
Both teams have veteran quarterbacks in Tanner Morgan (Minnesota) and Jarret Doege but really lean on their run games and defenses to win. Minnesota overcame several key injuries at running back to win six of its final eight games, including the regular-season finale against Wisconsin. The Gophers are stout along the line of scrimmage and often play well away from home, while West Virginia's big wins (Iowa State, Virginia Tech) came in Morgantown. Boye Mafe and the Gophers' defense rise up, and Minnesota controls tempo to grind out a win in the desert.
Prediction: Minnesota 27, West Virginia 19
Result: Minnesota 18, West Virginia 6
Dec. 29
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Maryland Terrapins vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Yankee Stadium (New York)
The teams meet for the first time since 2013, and for the first time ever in postseason play. Maryland dropped six of eight games after a 4-0 start, and could generate offense against only two of the weaker teams it faced (Indiana and Rutgers). Virginia Tech has been through a coaching change, but has a better defense under coordinator Justin Hamilton, and an offense capable of hurting Maryland on the ground (190.8 rush yards per game). Neither team is overly inspiring here, but Virginia Tech gets enough from linebacker Dax Hollifield and the defense to end a turbulent season on a good note.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Maryland 20
Result: Maryland 54, Virginia Tech 10
Cheez-It Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
After six straight CFP appearances, Clemson heads to the venerable Cheez-It Bowl. Motivation level will be a big topic heading into the matchup, as both teams entered the season with much loftier goals. Clemson will have a new defensive playcaller for the first time in a decade as Brent Venables moves on to Oklahoma. Offensive coordinator Tony Elliott also remains a candidate for ACC head-coaching vacancies. Iowa State still has its coach in Matt Campbell, and will lean on veteran quarterback Brock Purdy to find holes in a talented Clemson defense. Opt-outs could be a storyline for both teams, and I have a hard time seeing Clemson performing anywhere near its peak level for this one.
Prediction: Iowa State 27, Clemson 20
Result: Clemson 20, Iowa State 13
Valero Alamo Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Alamodome (San Antonio)
Amid all the bowl predictions fun, I took a break to watch coaches Mario Cristobal and Bob Stoops on a Zoom call for the Alamo Bowl. Cristobal, the subject of Miami rumors all weekend, looked understandably uncomfortable, while Stoops seemed completely at ease. He's still ticked off about Oklahoma's controversial loss to Oregon in 2006, and hilariously ended the call by wishing Cristobal luck on the recruiting trail. Oregon was blown out twice in its last three games. The Ducks are beat up on both sides of the ball and could be disinterested for this matchup after spending most of the season in CFP contention. Big Game Bob wins a not-so-big game in his return to the Sooners' sideline.
Prediction: Oklahoma 35, Oregon 24
Result: Oklahoma 47, Oregon 32
Dec. 30
Duke's Mayo Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
The Carolina schools meet for the third straight time in Charlotte, a good midpoint to encourage attendance by both fan bases. South Carolina fans likely will be a bit more visible and excited, as first-year coach Shane Beamer impressively got a limited roster to six wins. North Carolina has been maddeningly inconsistent, all the way to the regular-season finale at NC State, where the Tar Heels blew a 30-21 lead in the final 2:12. Will a more motivated South Carolina team be able to overcome the talent disparity? I think Beamer's bunch plays hard, and North Carolina could have a slew of opt-outs, including quarterback Sam Howell. I'm hearing Howell will play, so I'm going with the Heels.
Prediction: North Carolina 38, South Carolina 28
Result: South Carolina 38, North Carolina 21
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
This is a tough draw for Purdue, which will face a road-like atmosphere in Nashville. Tennessee went only 7-5, but first-year coach Josh Heupel energized the offense and the fan base. Then again, Purdue won't be intimidated after recording two wins against teams ranked in the top four in Iowa (road) and Michigan State (home). Quarterbacks Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) and Aidan O'Connell (Purdue) both are capable of putting up big numbers. The key for Purdue is whether NFL-bound stars David Bell and George Karlaftis will play. If both opt out, it's hard to see the Boilers keeping pace with Hooker, wide receiver Cedric Tillman and the Vols.
Prediction: Tennessee 37, Purdue 26
Result: Purdue 48, Tennessee 45 (OT)
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Michigan State Spartans vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
This will be fun, as Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi faces the program he helped elevate to the CFP as defensive coordinator from 2007 to 2014. Despite Narduzzi's defensive roots, this matchup should be all about the offenses, which boast national awards candidates such as Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III. MSU's pass defense has been a real problem, as Ohio State and others exposed, and Pickett should have a big performance in his final college game. Expect plenty of points in Atlanta but a few more stops on the Panthers' side. Narduzzi will have a huge smile walking off the field.
Prediction: Pitt 45, Michigan State 38
Result: Michigan State 31, Pitt 21
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
Both teams certainly entered the season with loftier goals, but both also should be excited to be in Las Vegas to close out the year. Wisconsin should have a strong contingent of fans, and Vegas is a short trip for most ASU fans. The Sun Devils got a boost with the return of quarterback Jayden Daniels for the 2022 season, but they will face a linebacker-loaded Wisconsin defense that ranks No. 2 nationally in efficiency. The key will be whether Wisconsin controls tempo with Braelon Allen and the run game and doesn't put quarterback Graham Mertz in difficult situations, or ASU gets its own ground game going. Ultimately, Wisconsin's defense will be the difference in a close one.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Arizona State 23
Result: Wisconsin 20, Arizona State 13
Dec. 31
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
Don't write off the somewhat rare 5-7 bowl participant, as five of six teams with that record won their bowls after the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Rutgers certainly will be as ready to play as possible after replacing Texas A&M, but this is all about Wake Forest and its chance to finish a record-setting season with a win. The Demon Deacons offense is a real pain to prepare for, especially on relatively short notice. Rutgers doesn't have the offensive sizzle to keep up with Sam Hartman and Wake Forest, which pulls away in the second half.
Prediction: Wake Forest 38, Rutgers 21
Result: Wake Forest 38, Rutgers 10
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Washington State Cougars vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
Both teams come in hot. Washington State won six of its final eight regular-season games, capping things off with its most lopsided Apple Cup win ever. Central Michigan won six of its final seven games, with the lone loss coming by a single point to Northern Illinois. Both teams can score in bunches, and I expect strong games from quarterbacks Daniel Richardson (CMU) and Jayden de Laura (Washington State). But WSU's defense will be the difference in this one, making a few key fourth-quarter stops.
Prediction: Washington State 33, Central Michigan 26
Result: Central Michigan 24, Washington State 21
Jan. 1
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
I keep coming back to the enthusiasm around Notre Dame after Marcus Freeman's hiring, plus the disappointment on the Oklahoma State side after the Big 12 championship game loss, which likely cost the Pokes their first CFP spot. Oklahoma State boasts an exceptional defense and has faced a tougher schedule than Notre Dame. But the Irish played complete, dominant football down the stretch and have a more reliable offense than Oklahoma State. Notre Dame's recent record in top bowl games isn't good, but a new era is dawning in South Bend, and it begins with a win in Freeman's head-coaching debut.
Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Oklahoma State 17
Result: Oklahoma State 37, Notre Dame 35
Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One Venture X: Utah Utes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Utah will try to mimic Michigan's brilliant game plan against the Buckeyes, as the Utes and Wolverines are similarly constructed. Kyle Whittingham's team surged down the stretch and twice bullied Oregon at the line of scrimmage. Ohio State poses a much tougher task, especially with a passing game that, unlike Oregon's, can truly stress the Utes' secondary. Utah could be the more motivated team, too, appearing in its first Rose Bowl, while Ohio State had set its sights on a third straight CFP appearance. But the Buckeyes typically rise up well in bowls, and quarterback C.J. Stroud will look to make a statement before a 2022 season when the team returns to the national title mix. Utah takes an early lead, but Ohio State pulls away in the second half behind Stroud, running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Utah 26
Result: Ohio State 48, Utah 45
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Baylor Bears vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App
Both teams will be excited to be in New Orleans. Baylor was in the Sugar Bowl in 2020 and Ole Miss last made the trip for the 2016 game. Coach Dave Aranda's Bears came on strong to win the Big 12 championship, while Ole Miss beat Texas A&M and Mississippi State during an impressive stretch run. Both teams have nice balance, too, as Ole Miss' defense improved a lot late in the season. I'm going to assume quarterback Matt Corral plays for the Rebels. Aranda has faced coach Lane Kiffin before, and should have his talented defense ready to go. This will be one of the bowl season's best games, but I like Ole Miss to cap off a historic season with its 11th win.
Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Baylor 25
Result: Baylor 21, Ole Miss 7
Outback Bowl: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Both teams are senior-laden, and the opt-out factor could loom large heading into the game. Penn State already has lost primary defensive coordinator Brent Pry to Virginia Tech, and co-defensive coordinator Anthony Poindexter is a prime candidate to become Virginia's next head coach. The Lions' defense has been their hallmark, along with a passing game featuring Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington. Both teams played tough schedules and while Arkansas has the best win (Texas A&M), Penn State beat a common opponent in Auburn, which thumped the Hogs 38-23. Arkansas played better down the stretch and gets the edge with a much more balanced offense led by quarterback KJ Jefferson.
Prediction: Arkansas 31, Penn State 27
Result: Arkansas 24, Penn State 10
Vrbo Citrus Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Former Iowa defensive back Mark Stoops will lead Kentucky against his alma mater in a game that will feature the two defenses. Iowa leads the nation in interceptions (24), and faces a quarterback in Kentucky's Will Levis who has been picked off 12 times. Kentucky's defense isn't as opportunistic but cracks down nicely against the run (3.8 yards per carry). Iowa's offensive struggles aren't going away, and the Hawkeyes will need their defense and special teams to rise up in Orlando. Expect a tight, somewhat ugly game that Iowa wins on a pick-six.
Prediction: Iowa 21, Kentucky 19
Result: Kentucky 20, Iowa 17
Jan. 4
Texas Bowl: LSU Tigers vs. Kansas State Wildcats
NRG Stadium (Houston)
There have been coaching changes on both sides, more dramatically at LSU, but Kansas State recently fired offensive coordinator Courtney Messingham. Former Wildcats star Collin Klein will call offensive plays against LSU, which played well on defense during the last month of the regular season. Not surprisingly, LSU's interest level and personnel situation likely will shape the game's outcome. Kansas State has been inconsistent -- three wins, three losses, four wins, two losses -- but wants to send off its seniors with a bowl win. Wildcats pass-rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah (11 sacks, six forced fumbles) and the defense prove to be the difference in this one.
Prediction: Kansas State 25, LSU 22
Result: Kansas State 42, LSU 20