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College football bowl projections and analysis: Final predictions before selection day

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Saban thanks media for 'yummy' rat poison (0:23)

Nick Saban praises the media for putting out positive rat poison for the Crimson Tide. (0:23)

The college football regular season is over and now it's time for bowl season. With the conclusion of the conference championship games Saturday, it's time for a final edition of bowl projections before the official matchups are revealed on Sunday.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Alabama

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Alabama

Playoff breakdown

Schlabach: Just when many thought Alabama's playoff chances were dead, Nick Saban clobbered another former assistant coach and spoiled Georgia's hopes of an unbeaten season. The Tide's dominant 41-24 victory against the Bulldogs in the SEC championship game should assure them of the No. 1 seed in the playoff, after they came into the weekend perhaps wondering if they'd even end up in the top four. Georgia's loss shouldn't knock it out of the playoff, but it'll probably slip to No. 3, behind Alabama and Big Ten champion Michigan. UGA coach Kirby Smart is going to spend the next few weeks dissecting what went wrong against Alabama (again) and how to fix it if the teams end up playing again in the CFP national championship in Indianapolis on Jan. 10. Cincinnati will become the first team from a Group of 5 league to crash the CFP party after taking down Houston 35-20 in the AAC title game to finish 13-0. There's absolutely no way the selection committee can leave the Bearcats out now. They'll probably be the No. 4 seed.

Bonagura: In the end, it was pretty straightforward. Alabama, by virtue of its impressive win against Georgia in the SEC championship, will likely be the top-ranked team when the committee releases its final rankings. The reality, though, is that the rankings don't really matter. It's about matchups and the committee is not going to have Alabama and Georgia play again in a semifinal. With that understood, it will be Alabama against Cincinnati and Michigan against Georgia. If someone wanted to make the case Michigan should be the No. 1 and Georgia the No. 4, let them. It makes no difference.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pitt vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Notre Dame

Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Michigan State

Bowl game we're most excited to see: I'm really looking forward to seeing Notre Dame take the field after being abandoned by Brian Kelly for his new Bayou adventure. For Kelly's replacement, Marcus Freeman, to get to make his head coaching debut in a New Year's Six bowl game means there should be plenty of motivation to have a solid showing in an era where even these types of high-profile games can turn stale. If it does end up being Oklahoma State, it means there will be two teams excited about the stage. -- Bonagura

Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One Venture X
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Utah

Bowl game we're most excited to see: Besides the CFP semifinals, the Rose Bowl might be pretty intriguing. The Utes have already twice defeated Oregon, the team that beat the Buckeyes at the Horseshoe on Sept. 11, by a combined score of 76-17. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham hasn't gotten nearly enough credit this year for keeping the Utes focused after the tragic deaths of star running back Ty Jordan last December and his good friend Aaron Lowe in September. The Utes went 10-3 and will play in their first Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One Venture X. -- Schlabach

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Ole Miss


Bowl season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Liberty vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall

Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida vs. North Carolina
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Central Michigan

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: San Diego State vs. Army
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. UTSA
Schlabach: BYU vs. LSU

Team most disappointed with its spot: BYU. The Cougars were on the cusp of a New Year's Six bowl spot, but they didn't get enough results to go in their favor down the stretch. A matchup with UTSA would be one of the most appealing matchups of the bowl season, but the idea of playing in the Independence Bowl just doesn't compare to a New Year's Six game. It's even worse knowing their rival -- who they beat -- will be in the Granddaddy of Them All. -- Bonagura

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia State vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oregon State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. Utah State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. UAB
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. UTSA

Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Marshall

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Boise State

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. North Texas
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. UTEP

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Air Force vs. Houston
Schlabach: Air Force vs. SMU

Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Florida vs. UCF

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Memphis vs. Hawaii
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Hawaii

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTEP vs. Kent State
Schlabach: Ball State vs. Georgia State

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wyoming vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Tulsa vs. Northern Illinois

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Virginia vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Virginia vs. East Carolina

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: LSU vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Louisville

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: SMU vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Auburn

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox

Bonagura: NC State vs. UCLA
Schlabach: NC State vs. UCLA

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Texas Tech

Dec. 29

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boston College vs. UCF
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Houston

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Purdue
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Penn State

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Clemson

Team most disappointed with its spot: After making six consecutive appearances in the playoff, anything short of playing in another semifinal was going to be disappointing for Clemson. The Tigers started 2-2, but then won seven of their final eight games, including a 30-0 shutout of rival South Carolina in the regular-season finale. Still, Tigers fans might have travel fatigue after going to the playoff so many times, so even a trip to Orlando, Florida, might not be too enticing. -- Schlabach

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Oregon

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. South Carolina

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tennessee vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Tennessee vs. Purdue

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Arkansas

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Miami vs. Washington State

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Nevada vs. Ball State
Schlabach: Nevada vs. Kent State

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Kentucky

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Texas A&M vs. Iowa

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD, on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Mississippi State

Bowl TBA
Bonagura:
Western Kentucky vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Wyoming