Alabama quarterback Bryce Young is the favorite to be named the best player in college football this Saturday night in New York City. The Heisman Trophy is fitting award, as Young was rated the top QB prospect in the 2020 class and the No. 5 overall player.
However, not all Heisman Trophy winners have had a college projection that accurate. We talk often about the unknown variables when evaluating a high volume of high school prospects based on their film and combine results. Heisman finalist Kenny Pickett was a three-star prospect and our 25th-rated pocket passer in the 2017 class. Our scouting report refers to him as "wiry and accurate."
In fact, the Heisman Trophy winners from the past decade represent a wide spectrum of projections, including one winner who didn't even hold a scholarship offer.
Here is how the past 10 Heisman Trophy winners were viewed as high school prospects.
2011: QB Robert Griffin III
Baylor
Class of 2008 ranking: three stars
Griffin was originally a Houston verbal commit to Art Briles coming out of the 2008 class but flipped when Briles took the Baylor job. A high three-star and 40th-ranked QB in the class who was dangerous as both a runner and passer, Griffin broke the state marks in the 110-meter hurdles (13.55) and the 300-meter hurdles (35.33). Griffin would go on to help rebuild and rebrand the Baylor Bears into a college football fixture. He became a four-year starter and completed 72% of his passes for 4,293 yards and 37 touchdowns in his Heisman season.
2012: QB Johnny Manziel
Texas A&M
Class of 2011 ranking: three stars
One of the more lightly recruited players to win the Heisman Trophy, Manziel left the 2011 class as the 39th-ranked dual-threat QB with just a handful of offers, including Tulsa, Colorado State and Oregon. At the time, he was considered a better athlete than a pure passer. He would sign with Mike Sherman, but eventually play for Kevin Sumlin and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury in what became a transcendent 2012 redshirt freshman season. Statistically, Manziel actually had a better year in 2013, but beating Alabama and making eye-popping plays each week in 2012 made him the runaway Heisman winner.
2013: QB Jameis Winston
Florida State
Class of 2012 ranking: No. 14
One of the most highly sought-after quarterbacks and baseball players to come out of the South over the past 10 years, Winston was a bit raw as a passer but was a big play waiting to happen with his legs and arm strength. Winston was the 14th overall player in the 2012 ESPN 300 class and No. 1-ranked pocket passer. His incredible redshirt freshman campaign not only won him the Heisman Trophy but also the national championship. He threw 40 touchdowns and passed for over 4,000 yards in 2013 and eventually became the No. 1 overall pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2015 NFL draft.
2014: QB Marcus Mariota
Oregon
Class of 2011 ranking: two stars
Offered by virtually no one as a two-star prospect out of Hawai'i in the 2011 class, Mariota had good arm strength and verified 4.58 40 speed. He found the ultimate system at Oregon and developed into a prolific passer during his time in Eugene. He redshirted in 2011 only to go on to become a three-year starter and define the Chip Kelly era at Oregon. As a junior, he led his team to the College Football Playoff, throwing for 4,454 yards and 42 touchdown passes while also adding another 15 touchdowns on the ground, rushing for 770 yards. He threw only four interceptions. He was later drafted No. 2 overall by the Tennessee Titans in 2015.
2015: RB Derrick Henry
Alabama
Class of 2013 ranking: No. 9
Graded as the No. 9 overall prospect in the ESPN300 and No. 1 athlete in the 2013 class, Henry went on to prove many wrong -- including us -- by showing that he could indeed play running back at the next level. Despite rushing for over 12,000 yards, at 6-foot-3 and 245 pounds, the most logical projection at the time was that he'd be a better fit as an OLB or DE over time. He lightly contributed as a freshman and sophomore but exploded as a junior, helping lead Alabama to the national championship while running away with the Heisman Trophy. His prolific junior season saw him account for 2,219 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns.
2016: QB Lamar Jackson
Louisville
Class of 2015 ranking: three stars
A true diamond in the rough out of high school, Jackson was a high three-star dual-threat prospect who blossomed under the tutelage of Bobby Petrino at Louisville. A far better runner than passer, he was a grade 79 dual-threat QB and the 17th-ranked QB in the 2015 class. Petrino was one of few who recruited him purely as a QB. While his career was impressive for the Cardinals, it was the highlight-reel plays he made in 2016 that won him the Heisman. The leap over the Syracuse defender and running all over Florida State's defense were part of a spectacular sophomore campaign in which he accounted for 51 total touchdowns while throwing for 3,543 yards and rushing for an additional 1,571 yards.
2017: QB Baker Mayfield
Texas Tech/Oklahoma
Class of 2013 ranking: three stars
The ultimate dream come true. From walk-on to Heisman Trophy winner, Mayfield was the unlikeliest success story of the past 20 years of college football. The 69th-ranked QB in the 2013 class, Mayfield had redeeming qualities as a passer, but we noted he was "poised and tough." Not only did he walk on at Texas Tech, but he walked on twice by later transferring to Oklahoma. An undersized late bloomer with minimal recruiting interest, Mayfield became the starter as a freshman at Texas Tech, battling with Davis Webb before transferring to Oklahoma, where he would lead the Sooners to three consecutive outstanding offensive seasons. He had a magical season in 2017, completing 70% of his passes for 4,627 yards and 43 touchdowns.
2018: QB Kyler Murray
Texas A&M/Oklahoma
Class of 2015 ranking: No. 13
The path might not have been what most expected, but the end result sure was. The No. 1-ranked QB out of the 2015 class, Murray originally signed with Texas A&M before transferring and sitting out at Oklahoma in 2016. He was arguably one of the greatest quarterbacks in Texas high school history with a 42-0 record and over 14,000 total yards. He played sparingly in 2017 behind Mayfield and became a one-year starter in 2018, winning the Heisman Trophy and becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. His final year in college was nothing short of sensational. He accounted for 54 total touchdowns while throwing for 4,361 yards and rushing for 1,000 yards in 2018.
2019: QB Joe Burrow
Ohio State/LSU
Class of 2015 ranking: No. 298
Burrow was another unlikely success story. A late add to Ohio State's recruiting class in 2015 after being ranked No. 298, he was true late bloomer with high upside. We saw the frame, mobility, arm strength and poise, but not on an elite level. Burrow battled with Dwayne Haskins for the starting quarterback job in Columbus before transferring to LSU, where he became a two-year starter for the Tigers. His junior season was adequately productive, but certainly no indicator of what was to come in 2019. The combination of offensive coordinator Joe Brady and Burrow proved to be a lethal duo that led to not only a Heisman Trophy, but also a national championship. His numbers were staggering and arguably the best ever. He completed 76% of his passes for an astounding 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns.
2020: WR DeVonta Smith
Alabama
Class of 2017 ranking: No. 227
As a sophomore in high school, Smith showed up to a camp weighing about 130 pounds. Five years later, he was an entirely different player (although he didn't weigh that much more). He was a four-star player and rated as the 227th player in the 2017 ESPN 300. His electric speed was one of the things that separated him in his scouting report. He wasn't an immediate-impact contributor in Tuscaloosa, but slowly developed into a go-to target. His junior and senior seasons were terrific, when he racked up 1,256 and 1,856 receiving yards, respectively. As a senior, he hauled in 23 touchdown passes and dazzled as a route runner who made plays after the catch.
2021: QB Bryce Young
Alabama
Class of 2018 ranking: No. 5
Bryce Young will go down as one of the best high school football prospects we have evaluated. Each time we saw a Mater Dei game, we came away more impressed with his physical and mental skill set. He consistently dominated the top competition in the country and did so with rare ease. Young beat teams with his arm if they stacked the box or would elude them running through the second level if defenses spread out to cover the pass. The top ranked dual-threat and No. 1 overall QB finished his high school career with 13,250 passing yards and 152 passing touchdowns to go along with 1,084 rushing yards and 26 more scores and accounted for 178 total touchdowns in high school. The five-star from California broke out as a sophomore after backing up NFL first rounder Mac Jones. He set Alabama single-season marks for passing yards (4,872) and touchdowns (47) in his Heisman campaign and is the only quarterback in Alabama history to throw for 3,000-plus yards in two seasons.
2022: QB Caleb Williams
USC
Class of 2021 ranking: No. 16
The No. 1 dual-threat and No. 3 overall QB behind Quinn Ewers and Sam Huard, Williams had the most physical gifts in the class running a 4.57 40 with elite arm talent. His season at Gonzaga College in Washington, D.C. was cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but he showed enough skill and production as a junior (1,770 yards passing and 838 on the ground) to warrant a high projection and he signed with Oklahoma. After a breakout freshman campaign in which he replaced QB Spencer Rattler mid-season, Williams followed Lincoln Riley to USC and had an historic Heisman season. He threw for over 4,500 yards and 42 scores with just 5 interceptions.