The College Football Playoff semifinals always bring tremendous excitement, at least until the ball is kicked.
In terms of competitiveness and drama, the semis have largely been duds. Of the 12 CFP semifinals played, only three have been decided by single digits and eight have been decided by 17 points or more. We've never seen two legitimately competitive semifinals in the same year.
Will the trend end Friday? Probably not.
It's possible No. 3 Ohio State challenges No. 2 Clemson, a team the Buckeyes largely outplayed in last year's semifinal before falling in the closing minutes. Fourth-seeded Notre Dame holds the best win in college football this season, over then-No. 1 Clemson on Nov. 7, and believes it has closed the gap with teams like top-ranked Alabama, which it faces in the relocated Rose Bowl.
But most observers, including coaches who have faced the top four teams, think Friday's semifinals will produce the national championship game pairing that has defined the CFP era.
"You'll see Alabama and Clemson," an SEC assistant said.
I spoke to coaches to help break down the two semifinal matchups and some of the keys to each game.
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One: No. 1 Alabama (11-0) vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (10-1)
Details: 4 p.m. ET Friday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on ESPN/ESPN App
Line: Alabama by 19.5
Last meeting: Alabama beat Notre Dame 42-14 in the BCS national title game Jan. 7, 2013
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said Monday he doesn't understand the narrative about his team needing to prove itself on the CFP stage. The Fighting Irish have won 86% of their games since 2017, trailing only Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State in win percentage.
But they have plenty of nonbelievers entering Friday's matchup, including the oddsmakers in Las Vegas and plenty of coaches.
"No, no shot, not after what Clemson did to them," an SEC coach said, referring to Notre Dame's 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game.
"If DeVonta [Smith], Mac [Jones] and Najee [Harris] get hurt, they might have a chance," an FBS offensive coordinator said.
In surveying coaches, I tried to figure out the victory path for Notre Dame to upset Alabama. Many pointed to Notre Dame's signature unit, an offensive line filled with experience and talent. After the BCS title game loss to Alabama in 2013, which revealed a massive gap between Notre Dame and the nation's elite, Kelly and his staff started to prioritize the line of scrimmage and made gains there.
Notre Dame had three offensive linemen become top-10 NFL draft picks between 2016 and 2018. Left tackle Liam Eichenberg and left guard Aaron Banks are both among the top six players at their respective positions for the 2021 draft, according to ESPN's Mel Kiper.
"They're solid at every single position, maybe the best offensive line in college football, and they play to their strengths," an ACC coach said.
Notre Dame's strength also corresponds to its primary pathway to victory against Alabama, an offense no team has been able to slow down. The Irish rank seventh nationally in average possession time (33:57). They've had the possession-time advantage in all but one game and have held the ball for more than nine minutes seven times in the fourth quarter. The Irish also rank 13th nationally in lowest percentage of three-and-outs (19.5%).
"They're going to have to move the ball methodically, use the clock methodically and steal some possessions," an ACC coach said. "You can't give Alabama all those possessions. They're too explosive."
An ACC offensive coordinator said of Notre Dame: "They try to give you two possessions per quarter." But even if the Irish limit Alabama's chances, they could have a tough time keeping up on the scoreboard. Alabama has scored touchdowns on more than half of its drives (68 of 129).
"They're going to score every time they touch it," an SEC coach said.
Kelly joked that Notre Dame won't employ the "Princeton four corners offense" Friday, and the Irish actually don't have to change their ball-control approach at all.
"We can't come into this game and change who we are, but the nice part about it is that's kind of been our DNA this year, so we'll need to continue to do that, " Kelly said. "We can't be three-and-out, we want to hold onto the football."
Notre Dame will run the ball with Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree, and force Alabama's linebackers to worry about tight ends Michael Mayer (35 receptions) and Tommy Tremble (19 receptions). Mayer, Tremble and Brock Wright, a sound blocker, form a tight end group "as good as anybody's in college football," an ACC coach said.
"Ian Book's not going to light you up," another ACC coach said. "He's going to run around and he plays with his feet and throws the ball down the field. Where Notre Dame is different is their run game and their tight ends are so damn good, their O-line's so damn good, and their running back."
Book's athleticism jumps out to coaches, but they say the quarterback must also attack Alabama from within the pocket, even when pressured. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees said Book doesn't need to do "anything heroic," he just needs to string together positive plays and make good decisions within the scheme.
An SEC offensive assistant called Alabama "more vulnerable defensively than they've ever been," so coaches expect Notre Dame to have scoring opportunities. The Tide boast standouts such as cornerback Patrick Surtain II and linebackers Dylan Moses and Will Anderson Jr., but they're somewhat ordinary up front, which could favor Notre Dame and its running game.
"They don't have that special guy," an SEC offensive line coach said. "They used to always have a couple special guys on the D-line that you're just like, 'Wow, that dude's really good.'"
Defensive line might be the only area where Alabama doesn't wow coaches. There's no weakness on offense, as Alabama ranks first or second nationally in yards per play, third-down conversion rate, scoring and QBR.
"All the receivers are unbelievably dynamic, the quarterback is really efficient, really good, and the O-line's really good and the running back is special," an SEC assistant said. "No one's even put a dent in them, really."
Even after losing Jaylen Waddle to injury, Smith has produced incredible numbers, positioning himself to possibly be the first wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy since Desmond Howard in 1991.
"He's extremely gifted," an SEC defensive coordinator said. "I would have thought people would have done a slightly better job of double-teaming him. It doesn't seem like everybody feels the need to do that. You see he's winning one-on-one matchups."
Coaches said the Irish will need to use safeties Kyle Hamilton and Shaun Crawford to help cover Smith, who averages 15.4 yards per reception with 17 touchdowns. As Kelly noted, removing a box defender to assist with Smith makes it harder to stop Harris, who played his best down the stretch.
Coaches were very complimentary of Notre Dame's defense, which ranked in the top 25 in most categories, including sixth in third-down conversion percentage (29.2%).
"Notre Dame's just so damn disciplined," an ACC offensive coordinator said. "Their guys are going to be exactly where they're supposed to be all the time. If you are going to score on them, you've got to earn it."
Another ACC coordinator said Notre Dame defensive coordinator Clark Lea, the new head man at Vanderbilt, "does as good of a job as anybody in the country protecting his talent level." However, the coach said Notre Dame's secondary isn't filled with elite talent, and if Alabama can isolate defensive backs in coverage, it should have success.
Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, the Butkus Award winner, will be essential to Notre Dame slowing Harris. Owusu-Koramoah was brilliant in Notre Dame's win over Clemson, recording 2.5 tackles for loss and stripping the ball from Clemson's Travis Etienne and returning it for a 23-yard touchdown. The Irish limited Etienne to 28 rushing yards on 18 carries that night, but had a much harder time stopping him in the ACC championship (12 carries, 124 yards).
"He's as good of a player as I've seen in 10 years," an ACC coach said of Owusu-Koramoah. "He plays the game the right way, he's physical, he's violent, he can cover, he can hit, he's really good out on the edge."
Notre Dame ultimately must find ways to pressure Jones and force a turnover or two. Although the Irish will be among the stronger defenses Alabama has faced, no team has shown it can stop all of the Tide's threats.
"Alabama just has more talent than anybody in America by far," a Power 5 coordinator said. "They lost their No. 1 wideout [Waddle] and their second wideout [Smith] is going to be a top-20 pick and may win the Heisman. Their first four wideouts are all probably top 15 in the country.
"The talent level is just out the roof."
Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Clemson (10-1) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (6-0)
Details: 8 p.m. ET Friday at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, on ESPN/ESPN App
Line: Clemson by 7.5
Last meeting: Clemson beat Ohio State 29-23 at the CFP semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 28, 2019
Both teams won their conference championship games to earn return trips to the CFP, but they looked different in the process. Clemson flexed against Notre Dame, while Ohio State slogged through the Big Ten championship, overcoming Justin Fields' two interceptions before pulling away late against Northwestern thanks to a record-setting performance from running back Trey Sermon (331 rushing yards, two touchdowns).
While most don't expect a repeat of the 2016 CFP semifinal -- when Clemson blanked Ohio State 31-0 -- a Buckeyes team playing only their seventh game and still figuring out some things must deliver their best performance to push Clemson.
"Justin's going to have to play really well," a Power 5 coach said of Fields, who had his worst game as a Buckeye (12-of-27 passing, 114 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions) against Northwestern. "They cannot turn the ball over. If you turn the ball over against Clemson, you're going to get killed."
Ohio State committed the only two turnovers in last year's game and lost despite holding edges in first downs (28-21), total yards (516-417) and possession time (33:27-26:33). The Buckeyes dominated the first half but settled for field goals three times after entering Clemson's red zone.
"They ran it so well, and then they'd get down in the red zone and start throwing it," an SEC assistant said of Ohio State. "Why not just run it in and score a touchdown?"
Red zone touchdown rate again looms large Friday, as Ohio State has converted on only 61.8% of its opportunities (21-of-34) this season, which ranks 66th nationally. Clemson ranks 26th in denying red zone touchdowns. Notre Dame reached Clemson territory on each of its first three possessions in the ACC title game, but came away with three total points.
ACC coaches seemed lukewarm on Clemson's defense most of the year, pointing to the youth up front and the lack of overall star power. But the unit got healthier and better as the season went on, culminating in the ACC title game, when Clemson stifled Notre Dame's running game and recorded six sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
"Schematically, they do a ton of stuff," an ACC coach said. "Their package is much more extensive. Those young guys are ridiculously good players. The scheme, there are so many things coming from so many different angles."
Ohio State's response to Clemson begins with a smooth playcalling operation. Coach Ryan Day on Monday hinted at Clemson's penchant for stealing signals, saying of defensive coordinator Brent Venables, "Seems to always know exactly what the other team is doing in terms of the plays that they're running and seems to call the right defense into that play a lot. And why that is? I don't really know." Fields must play cleaner than he did against Northwestern and Indiana, two elite-level defenses that collected all five of his interceptions this season.
Fortunately for the Buckeyes, their offense should be near full strength as top wideout Chris Olave is set to return after missing the Big Ten title game. Olave and Garrett Wilson have combined for 62% of the team's receptions and more than 75% of the receiving yards. Three offensive line starters who missed a Dec. 5 game at Michigan State returned against Northwestern. And Fields said a thumb injury to his throwing hand will be fine by Friday's kickoff.
"The big question is Justin's thumb," a Big Ten coach said. "You've got to worry about both [wide receivers] on the field now. Now, they've got more balance when Olave's back, and he can take the top off the defense, and he'll be highly motivated in this game based on what happened last year."
The emergence of Sermon, a transfer from Oklahoma, also is promising behind an offensive line that Big Ten coaches love. He rushed for 443 yards on 39 carries in his past two games after not eclipsing 68 yards in his first four games as a Buckeye. Sermon and Master Teague III, who rushed for 169 yards and two scores against Indiana, provide Ohio State multiple rushing options alongside Fields (4.1 YPC).
Clemson's defense ranks fifth nationally in yards per rush (2.79 YPC) and second in sacks (44), which Fields struggles to avoid.
"Clemson's really good up front," an ACC coach said. "Notre Dame runs the ball really well and they were able to stop the run in that last game. They were able to keep Book in the pocket."
Trevor Lawrence's running (107 yards) and late-game heroics propelled Clemson last year, as the Tigers overcame a below-average offensive performance overall. The Tigers quarterback is coming off of his most complete performance this season -- 322 passing yards, 90 rushing yards, three total touchdowns against Notre Dame -- and forms what coaches consider the nation's best backfield tandem.
"The combination of Trevor and Etienne is really, really, really hard to defend," an ACC coach said. "[Ohio State] will have to stop Trevor's run, but then you've got to stop Etienne out of the backfield. It's not just about Etienne as a running back. He's so dangerous because he's such a mismatch to linebackers, and the moment you put more DBs on the field, then he's going to kill you running the ball."
Wide receiver Amari Rodgers and Etienne are Clemson's most established pass-catchers, but coaches like wideout Cornell Powell (16.5 YPC) and tight end Braden Galloway (13.2 YPC), among others. Ohio State has a strong front seven, and tackles Haskell Garrett and Tommy Togiai have stood out to Big Ten coaches.
However, there's not as much praise for a secondary that limited Clemson's wide receivers in last year's game but lost Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall NFL draft pick, and others.
"The weak link is their back end," an FBS coach said.
Both defenses seem to be playing their best down the stretch -- Clemson allowed only 37 points total in its final three games, and Ohio State allowed just 22 points total in its final two contests. But coaches expect both offenses to perform well, especially if Ohio State's is closer to full strength.
"There's going to be a lot of points in that game," a Big Ten coach said. "It's going to come down to who makes the least amount of mistakes and who holds onto the football. I just think both offenses are really dynamic. Justin's going to have to play at a high level. Trevor will play at a high level.
"If they both do that, it will be an interesting game."