Deep breath, Cincinnati fans. Deep breath.
There's no way to sugarcoat this one, as undefeated Cincinnati is now No. 9, behind three two-loss teams: No. 6 Iowa State, No. 7 Florida and No. 8 Georgia.
Ouch.
After losing to an unranked LSU team that entered the game 3-5, Florida dropped from sixth place to ... seventh. The SEC East champs have two wins against teams above .500 (5-4 Mizzou and 7-2 Georgia). Cincinnati, which hasn't played since Nov. 21 because its past two games were canceled because of COVID-19 issues, has four. That doesn't seem to make a difference to the selection committee, and with only one game remaining, these rankings felt like a knockout blow to any hope Cincinnati might have had of earning that fourth spot with the help of some chaos above.
The top five teams remained the same for the fourth straight rankings, with No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Notre Dame being close to locks to remain in the top four on Selection Day, even if they lose their respective conference championship games on Saturday.
If No. 3 Clemson wins the ACC title and No. 4 Ohio State beats No. 14 Northwestern in the Big Ten championship game, it's quite possible that the selection committee's top four will remain the same in some order on Selection Day.
If Notre Dame wins, though, that fourth spot could be a great debate. If Clemson and Ohio State both lose, it could get really interesting. And so we turn to the proverbial "bubble."
If the fourth spot becomes a question, who's in?
No. 5 Texas A&M
The case for the Aggies: They played a difficult, nine-game schedule that included a win over SEC East champ Florida, with their only loss coming to the No. 1 team in the country. According to ESPN's strength of record metric, the average Top 25 team would have just a 17% chance to achieve the same 7-1 record as the Aggies.
The case against the Aggies: They didn't win the SEC West, and the last time they faced Alabama, it wasn't pretty. In fact, the Crimson Tide's 52-24 win wasn't really competitive. Texas A&M has defeated only two teams with winning records (Florida at 8-2 and Auburn at 6-4). Overall, the Aggies' victories came against opponents that have a combined record of 25-42.
The committee doesn't consider potential rematches in semifinals when ranking teams, but the thought of Alabama manhandling Texas A&M again might be the least appealing option from a fan's perspective.
Is a top-four path realistic? Completely. It's clear that the committee likes the Aggies, but they're going to need some help to sneak in. A Clemson loss just might do it.
No. 6 Iowa State
The case for the Cyclones: They will have played an 11-game schedule that could include a Big 12 championship win over the No. 10 Sooners, and it's clear that the Cyclones have improved substantially since they lost the season opener to No. 19 Louisiana. They also have four wins against teams over .500, including two versus CFP Top 25 teams: Oklahoma and No. 20 Texas. If Iowa State wins the Big 12, it will have won six straight games, the same number that Ohio State has played all season.
The case against the Cyclones: They have two losses. Yes, they were both to ranked opponents -- Louisiana and No. 21 Oklahoma State -- but they lost by 17 points at home to the CFP's No. 19 team.
Is a top-four path realistic?: It's not impossible, but a lot has to happen. Iowa State first has to beat Oklahoma, and it needs Clemson and/or Ohio State to lose. The Cyclones also need to be impressive enough in their win -- or have Texas A&M be unimpressive enough in its game against Tennessee -- to jump the No. 5 Aggies.
No. 7 Florida
The case for the Gators: They still have a chance to beat Alabama and win the SEC, and the SEC champion has never been left out of the playoff. Because the Gators dropped only one spot after a bad loss, it isn't inconceivable that a two-loss team could get into the playoff for the first time.
The case against the Gators: That was a bad loss to LSU. Florida's wins have come against teams with a combined 28-46 record.
Is a top-four path realistic?: Yes, but it would take an unlikely result (such as the Gators beating the Tide) and a controversial decision. It's a possibility only because the committee kept the Gators within range in spite of the LSU loss.
No. 9 Cincinnati
The case for the Bearcats: They are No. 7 in the country in defensive efficiency and have held their AAC opponents to 15 points per game -- in a conference in which teams have averaged 31.2 points. The Bearcats' defense has allowed only 13 touchdowns in eight games, the fewest of any team with eight or more games. The only undefeated teams remaining that have played at least eight games are Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Alabama and Coastal Carolina.
The Bearcats have the chance to punctuate their résumé with a triumph against No. 23 Tulsa in the AAC championship game. According to ESPN's strength of record metric, it's slightly more difficult for the average Top 25 team to achieve Cincy's 8-0 record than Clemson's 9-1 record.
The case against the Bearcats: No wins against Power 5 opponents and one FCS win (Austin Peay).
Is a top-four path realistic?: Not anymore. Regardless of who wins the Big 12, the champion will either stay ahead of the Bearcats (No. 6 Iowa State) or jump them (No. 10 Oklahoma), based on what we've seen from the committee so far.
No. 13 USC
The case for the Trojans: They have the same 5-0 record as Ohio State, and ESPN's strength of record metric says it was slightly more difficult to achieve. They still have a chance to add the Pac-12 title to their résumé.
The case against the Trojans: Southern California isn't going to face a ranked opponent in its title game, as Oregon isn't a CFP Top 25 team. The Trojans will finish the season without any wins against ranked opponents. While USC and Ohio State are both undefeated, the Buckeyes have spent nearly two-thirds of their game time leading by double digits, compared to just more than a quarter for USC.
Is a top-four path realistic?: Not this year. A win against an unranked Oregon team isn't going to catapult the No. 13 team from good to great -- or into the top four.