The College Football Playoff debate could get very tricky, or it might just fix itself.
When Saturday's game between Big Ten rivals Michigan and Ohio State was canceled Tuesday, it became clear that the Buckeyes will need some help in meeting the conference's benchmark of six games to be eligible to play in the conference championship game.
Or, the Big Ten can change its rule.
If Ohio State doesn't play Saturday (there is still a possibility; keep reading) and the six-game minimum doesn't change, Indiana and Northwestern will play in the Big Ten championship game on Dec. 19 (noon ET). Here are the three most realistic available possibilities still swirling around the Buckeyes and how each would impact their College Football Playoff chances ahead of Tuesday night's latest rankings reveal (ESPN and ESPN App, 7 p.m. ET):
Ohio State can find another available conference opponent to play on Saturday
Back in November, the Big Ten presidents and chancellors approved a rule that if two Big Ten teams are available because their opponents had to cancel their respective games, those two teams could play each other if both schools agree to it by 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Within an hour after the news broke that The Game was canceled, Purdue issued a statement that it canceled practice Tuesday "to evaluate the results of recent COVID-19 testing."
Purdue is scheduled to play rival Indiana on Saturday. If Ohio State and Indiana are both available and the schools agree, they can play each other even though they played on Nov. 21 -- a 42-35 Ohio State win. It's also possible the Big Ten can shuffle its schedule around, possibly allowing for Ohio State to make up its game against Maryland that was canceled on Nov. 14. That would mean Indiana would have to play Rutgers. Of course, all of the above means it would take willingness and coordination from those athletic directors and coaches to switch opponents.
Of course, BYU and Coastal Carolina have now set the bar 2,000 miles high for scheduling adjustments.
If the Big Ten can be flexible enough to do the same pending Purdue's misfortune, Ohio State would be right back in the conference title game with a great shot at holding on to the No. 4 spot without a rule change.
The Big Ten athletic directors can change the eligibility rule
Sources have told ESPN that the 14 Big Ten athletic directors are meeting Wednesday and will discuss changing the six-game rule so Ohio State can play in the conference title game with a 5-0 record.
If Ohio State finds another opponent, this won't be necessary -- and just because they're talking about it doesn't mean they will all agree to it.
"If we don't quite get the games we need to get in the championship game, I think that needs to be looked at hard, just like anybody else in the conference," Ohio State coach Ryan Day said Tuesday before knowing the Michigan game was canceled. "There's no easy solution in times like this. I know those guys are going to come together and take a hard look at it and make sure it was the right decision."
It was a decision originally made by the athletic directors, with input from the league's head coaches, and administrators of the Big Ten's conference championship game.
Ohio State can finish 6-0 without a title
This would occur if Ohio State doesn't find another conference opponent for Saturday, and/or the eligibility rule doesn't change. Every team in the Big Ten has one more game in Champions Week (Dec. 18-19). If the Buckeyes are matched up against a respectable opponent like Iowa, it would give them one more important opportunity to impress the selection committee.
How it could all play out with the College Football Playoff selection committee
There would be a stark difference in the committee meeting room between discussing a 7-0 Ohio State team that beat Northwestern in the Big Ten championship game and a 6-0 Buckeyes team without a conference title.
Unlike in "normal" years, there are no marquee nonconference games to help compensate for a lack of a conference title. There is no September win against Oregon or Oklahoma. Ohio State's best wins would be against Indiana (keep an eye on Tuesday night's rankings to see if the Hoosiers become a top-10 win for the Buckeyes) and whomever they play during Champions Week.
That could be a problem if Florida beats Alabama and the SEC gets two teams in, and Clemson beats Notre Dame, also giving the ACC a strong case for two teams. It could also be tricky if Ohio State becomes a debate with Texas A&M, as they would both be (and have been) compared in a similar way, especially without a conference title. And no, Ohio State can't play Texas A&M this weekend in a BYU-Coastal style contest, even though the Aggies had their game against Ole Miss canceled. League rules won't allow nonconference games, and both teams might prefer to take their chances with their current slate rather than risk a loss.
While the College Football Playoff does not require a minimum number of games played to qualify for semifinals, conference titles are one tiebreaker the selection committee uses to help evaluate comparable teams.
"In our evaluation, there's head-to-head, there's common opponents, there's strength of schedule," selection committee chair Gary Barta said last week. "If a team does or doesn't play in a conference championship, that certainly is one less criteria we can evaluate. It's not the only one, but one less we have available to us."
If the football gods grace Ohio State with a 7-0 record and a Big Ten title, Notre Dame could be the team in trouble. If Florida beats Alabama (setting up 1. Florida and 2. Alabama), Clemson beats Notre Dame (for No. 3 Clemson), and Ohio State finishes 7-0 with a Big Ten title ...?
The Irish are back where they were as an independent: hoping they've done enough to impress the selection committee without a conference championship. The Irish are usually the X factor in the CFP; but this year, the Buckeyes have earned the distinction. As long as the rest of Ohio State's season remains a question, so does the No. 4 spot.