Rivalry Week is traditionally a make-or-break moment in the college football season. Amid some of the sport's most recognizable and thrilling matchups, we see division titles clinched, title chances destroyed and coaches losing games that get them fired.
The year 2020 has to be different in every possible way, though, and Rivalry Week isn't quite its normal self. The division races and title shots and fired coaches are still very much in play, but a lot of the key matchups aren't.
But after Friday saw Oregon State outlast Oregon in a fog-filled 41-38 triumph and Notre Dame turn it on in the second half against North Carolina, we have an always-vital Iron Bowl and an always-lively Egg Bowl still on the dance card.
That doesn't mean they aren't huge, though! Let's talk about some of the bigger storylines I'm following this week.
All times Eastern.
Count the big plays in Pitt-Clemson
Pitt at No. 3 Clemson (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App)
Compare these defenses.
Success rate allowed: Clemson second, Pitt 15th
Three-and-out percentage: Clemson fourth, Pitt 20th
Havoc rate*: Clemson second, Pitt 20th
Marginal explosiveness: Clemson 101st, Pitt 123rd
Blitz-down big-play rate: Clemson 81st, Pitt 84th
Pitt's defense has basically been a slightly discount-brand Clemson this season. Both force the issue, push teams behind schedule and give up the occasional dam-busting big play.
This has resulted in a decent amount of volatility. In eight games, Clemson has allowed 4.7 or fewer yards per play five times and 5.6 or more twice, only once falling in between. In nine Pitt games, meanwhile, the Panthers have allowed 4.5 or fewer five times and 5.2 or more three times.
It probably goes without saying that Clemson's offense is better than Pitt's. Much, much better, in fact. But big plays insert randomness into the equation, and while the Panthers have been pretty inefficient, they do pack a big-play punch in the passing game, where DJ Turner, Taysir Mack and Jared Wayne have combined for 66 catches at 15.1 yards per catch. If Pitt is able to create a few explosions, that might allow the Panthers to hang around. But if the game is determined by consistency and efficiency or if Clemson is matching them in the big-play department, the Panthers don't stand much of a chance.
Both Notre Dame and Clemson entered the weekend with work to do. The Fighting Irish escaped Chapel Hill with a victory, but volatility could make this one worth monitoring, just in case.
Count 'em in the Iron Bowl too
No. 22 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
In 2019's Iron Bowl, Alabama outgained Auburn by 161 yards but fell via a combination of two pick-sixes and some red zone failures. That isn't the most sustainable pathway to victory for Auburn, but if the Tigers are going to pull another upset, it'll probably require something similar.
Auburn has spent most of 2020 in "just figure out how to get by" mode. The Tigers eked out tight, controversial victories over Arkansas and Ole Miss. And they managed to beat Tennessee by 13 despite getting outgained. How? With the same win-the-explosions recipe from last season's Iron Bowl. They scored on a 54-yard touchdown pass from Bo Nix to Anthony Schwartz in the second quarter and a 100-yard Smoke Monday pick-six in the third. (The Tigers actually scored as many touchdowns on Tennessee's four red zone trips as Tennessee did.)
As with Pitt-Clemson, a good, old-fashioned efficiency battle is going to favor Bama. The Crimson Tide are second in success rate on offense and 22nd on defense; Auburn is 40th on O and 87th on D. The Tigers aren't nearly as disruptive as we're used to seeing, relying heavily on freshman linebacker Colby Wooden for both sacks and run stuffs. But the safety corps of Monday, Christian Tutt and Jamien Sherwood is solid. Auburn still prevents big plays as well as usual, and the Tigers still rush the passer well in obvious pass situations.
They prevent big plays against mortal offenses, anyway.
Alabama is No. 1 in offensive SP+, combining absurd efficiency with even more absurd big-play capabilities. DeVonta Smith has become maybe the best go-to receiver in the country in the absence of the injured Jaylen Waddle, and John Metchie III has almost perfectly replicated Waddle's explosiveness with 21.4 yards per catch. Against Kentucky, quarterback and Heisman Trophy front-runner Mac Jones found a new weapon: sophomore tight end Jahleel Billingsley, who caught three balls for 78 yards.
The main story this season will obviously be the absence of Nick Saban, quarantining at home with the coronavirus. But on the field, any chance Auburn has comes down to somehow snuffing out deep balls, creating a couple of big plays and once again winning the red zone. It probably won't work, but it's a recipe the Tigers know pretty well, at least.
Is this the new Georgia offense?
No. 9 Georgia at South Carolina (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network/ESPN App)
In Georgia's losses to Alabama and Florida, quarterbacks Stetson Bennett and D'Wan Mathis combined to complete just 10 of 39 passes thrown at least 10 yards downfield, with three touchdowns to five interceptions. The best opponents on the schedule didn't even slightly respect Bennett's arm, and he couldn't punish them for it.
That whole time, JT Daniels was on the bench. The media weren't exactly privy to coach Kirby Smart's thought process regarding that. There were rumors of Daniels' continued struggles to move past knee injuries. And after Bennett had bailed Smart's Bulldogs out in the season opener against Arkansas, maybe Smart was feeling a bit of loyalty to the former walk-on, giving him a chance to be the guy in charge. Whatever the reasoning, we do know this: Daniels played last Saturday against Mississippi State, and he was incredible.
Passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield by UGA QBs:
Bennett/Mathis vs. Alabama and Florida: 10-for-39 (26%), 282 yards (7.2 yards per pass), 3 TDs, 5 INTs
Bennett/Mathis vs. four other opponents: 26-for-46 (57%), 549 yards (11.9 yards per pass), 3 TDs, 1 INT
Daniels vs. Mississippi State: 11-for-15 (73%), 303 yards (20.2 yards per pass), 3 TDs, 0 INT
Dang.
Daniels completed a 49-yard pass to Jermaine Burton (48 in the air) in the second quarter, a 48-yard touchdown to Burton (44 in the air) in the third and a 40-yard score to Kearis Jackson (all in the air) in the fourth. The Dawgs had completed seven passes of 30-plus yards in six games, then completed five in one.
Is Mississippi State's defense good? Not really. The Bulldogs are 66th in defensive SP+. But they are 36th in marginal explosiveness, and that's after getting torched by UGA. Nobody else was doing this to them.
It's too late for Georgia in 2020. The Dawgs aren't going to play for the national title, and considering Florida would need to lose two of three to Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU for it to happen, they aren't playing for the SEC title, either. This will go down as a disappointing season for a Georgia program with increasingly high expectations.
If Daniels keeps this up, though, this might also go down as the year in which Smart found his breakthrough quarterback. From K.J. Costello to Joe Milton, we have overreacted constantly to single-game, or even single-half, quarterback performances. Maybe we'll put Daniels in the same bucket soon. But he is a former blue-chipper who looked pretty solid as a true freshman in 2019, and if he's the guy to unlock the raw ability in the Georgia receiving corps, then our expectations of Georgia in 2021 could change drastically in the weeks to come.
Now, since I've jinxed basically every team and player I've said nice things about in recent months, congratulations in advance to South Carolina for picking off Daniels four times and pulling a huge upset.
Someone won't lose Penn State-Michigan!
Penn State at Michigan (Saturday, noon, ABC/ESPN App)
Michigan and Penn State's combined records at the time of their recent games:
2015: 15-4
2016: 5-1
2017: 11-1
2018: 13-3
2019: 11-1
2020: 2-8
I'm not sure what the more damning tidbit is for these two powerful-until-recently programs: that they've lost five games to SP+ top-50 teams by an average of 18 points or that they're only 2-3 against teams outside the top 50.
Penn State fell into huge holes against both No. 56 Nebraska and No. 71 Maryland and couldn't dig out of them, while Michigan pummeled No. 51 Minnesota but lost to No. 79 Michigan State at home and needed overtime to win at No. 104 Rutgers. That Penn State and Michigan are still top-40 teams in SP+ is purely a product of preseason projections still being a part of the ratings; without them, they'd both be in the 60s.
Penn State lost what it thought were going to be its two best players (linebacker Micah Parsons, running back Journey Brown) in the preseason. Its maybe third-best player, tight end Pat Freiermuth, is done for the season. The Nittany Lions are young in all the wrong places; their quarterback situation has disintegrated; and while their defense mostly looks the part in the second half of games, it's gotten torched in four consecutive first halves for some reason.
Michigan, meanwhile, has a mostly new offensive line that has struggled mightily, a run game and pass rush that are mostly nonexistent and a secondary that can't play the aggressive coverage required of it. How the Wolverines got here from a talent and execution perspective will require a full offseason autopsy. But ... one of these teams will get a win in Ann Arbor. Either Michigan will battle its way back to .500 or Penn State, already 0-5 for the first time ever, will avoid going 0-6 for the first time ever.
That's literally something.
Rivalry Week playlist
It's gluttony week whether you're with family or not, so here are some more games, in addition to the six listed previously, that you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. Time to binge.
Early Saturday
Maryland at No. 12 Indiana (noon, ESPN2/ESPN App). Maryland's feisty offense put up 80 points in its two games before a two-week hiatus. If Indiana is at all hung over after the Ohio State game, this one's trouble.
Kent State at Buffalo (noon, CBS Sports Network). Honestly, I'm almost as excited about this one as any other on the docket. Both teams are 3-0, and both have absolutely dynamite -- and polar-opposite -- offenses.
Saturday afternoon
Colorado at No. 18 USC (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN App). USC didn't wait until the last minute of the game to look good against Utah, but 2-0 Colorado might become your Pac-12 South favorite with an upset.
Mississippi State at Ole Miss (4 p.m., SEC Network). Yeah, you're watching the Egg Bowl. You don't need me to give you a reason.
Saturday evening
LSU at No. 5 Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App). A&M finally jumps back into the title race after a couple of weeks off. Can the Aggies run the table in these final four weeks?
Late Saturday
Nevada at Hawai'i (11 p.m., Spectrum Sports). Nevada is 5-0, and it survived a doozy against San Diego State last week, but the Wolf Pack now has to go out to the islands to play in the late, late-night slot.