Like everything else in 2020, the Big Ten is just a little ... off.
Northwestern, a program that was 3-9 last season, is now undefeated and three wins away from likely facing Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields -- a Heisman Trophy hopeful who hadn't thrown an interception yet this season -- threw three on Saturday afternoon in the Buckeyes' 42-35 victory against No. 9 Indiana. And Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz -- who hadn't thrown an interception his career -- also had three on Saturday (and a fumble), accounting for four of the Badgers' five turnovers in a 17-7 loss to No. 19 Northwestern.
Those two consequential conference games revealed that while the Buckeyes are still the team to beat in the Big Ten, the Wildcats just might be capable of beating them. Both teams have three regular-season games remaining on the schedule and should be heavy favorites in each of them.
As the College Football Playoff selection committee meets in person on Monday in Grapevine, Texas, to prepare its first of five rankings, Ohio State is 4-0 and is still on target for a top-four finish, but it's clear the Buckeyes haven't hit their stride yet. It makes sense, considering they're only four games into the season, had one game canceled, and are playing in the midst of a pandemic.
The question is when -- and if -- they will put it all together.
"We've got a ways to go, but we've played four games and it's almost Thanksgiving," coach Ryan Day said. "It's very, very bizarre. There's just so much that has gone into this season that these kids have been through. To the average person they don't quite get that part of it. They wouldn't understand. When you're in an environment like this, when there's no fans and you have to bring your own energy, it's just a different dynamic. That's why you're seeing so much strange things that have gone on this year. I'm not making excuses, I'm calling it for what it is."
In the Big Ten West, Northwestern has built upon its defensive identity and stifled the Badgers on Saturday, handing them their first loss during a tumultuous season in which they have seen two games canceled. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Northwestern now has a 96% chance to reach the Big Ten championship game.
With the exception of revealing Ohio State's top challenger in the league, Week 12 did little to change the playoff picture. Undefeated No. 1 Alabama cruised to a 63-3 victory against Kentucky, No. 2 Notre Dame had a bye, and No. 4 Clemson didn't play Florida State because a player who was on the plane to Tallahassee was positive for COVID-19. No. 6 Florida, No. 7 Cincinnati, No. 8 BYU and No. 11 Oregon also won.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, No. 3 Ohio State increased its playoff chances to 64%, but it was hardly a flawless performance. There were Fields' three interceptions, and he was sacked five times. There were the holes in the secondary, which Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix Jr. exposed for a career-high 491 yards and five touchdowns.
After beating three straight Big Ten opponents with a combined record of 2-11, Ohio State was finally tested by a surging Indiana team. The Hoosiers trailed by as many as four touchdowns, but still pushed the Buckeyes through the fourth quarter. It was the second straight game in which Ohio State watched a commanding lead dissipate. Against Rutgers, Ohio State led 35-3 at halftime and was outscored 24-14 in the second half.
"We have to keep the foot on the pedal and just finish them," Fields said.
Day agreed, saying he is "a long way from pleased," while also acknowledging that "to be 4-0, first place in the Big Ten East, big, big deal."
"We have to keep growing and get better and learn to adapt to this environment," Day said, "and it seems to me like whatever the reason is, the last two weeks we haven't been able to finish that."
They have only three more weeks to figure it out.
It's time to take Cincinnati seriously
The Bearcats went on the road and won the most difficult game remaining on their regular-season schedule, a 36-33 win at UCF, boosting their playoff chances to 28% according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. For Cincinnati to garner true top-four consideration from the selection committee, though, it needs to run the table and win the American Athletic Conference -- which is a strong possibility -- but it also needs some chaos above.
It's not entirely far-fetched, as three of those teams -- No. 4 Clemson, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 6 Florida -- each already has one loss. A big boost would be Notre Dame beating Clemson again to win the ACC title, and Alabama beating Florida to win the SEC.
The Bearcats end the season with back-to-back trips to Temple next week and to Tulsa on Dec. 12. Independent of all other results, Cincinnati would have a 50% chance (third best) to make the CFP if it wins the AAC, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
What Saturday's Tallahassee turnaround means for Clemson
File this under 2020: Clemson got on a plane, flew to Tallahassee, learned upon arrival that a player who was on the plane tested positive for COVID-19, shipped him back alone, and then the rest of the team eventually followed after Florida State's medical team advised against playing the noon game.
So when are the Tigers going to play?
"There are issues associated with rescheduling that will be discussed with the ACC in the coming week," Clemson athletic director Dan Radakovich told ESPN on Saturday evening.
Bottom line: It doesn't matter if they don't play. If Clemson finishes as a one-loss ACC champion, the selection committee isn't going to keep the Tigers out of the top four because they didn't play a 2-6 Florida State team. Just like it won't keep Alabama out of the top four if the Tide doesn't find a date to play 3-3 LSU.
If Clemson-FSU is rescheduled for Dec. 12, it matters only because Clemson and Notre Dame will both be playing makeup games the week before the ACC championship game instead of the Tigers resting and watching the Irish play Wake Forest.
BYU still needs a résumé booster
While Cincinnati was playing a thriller at UCF, BYU was steamrolling North Alabama in a 66-14 snoozer. With Boise State no longer ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, BYU doesn't have any wins against currently ranked opponents, and it's unlikely that changes in Tuesday's CFP ranking.
The question is if the Cougars can add one.
BYU isn't scheduled to play again until its Dec. 12 regular-season finale against San Diego State -- plenty of time to add another game if they can find an opponent. It can't be just anyone, though. If possible, athletic director Tom Holmoe needs to try to line up a Pac-12 opponent, as the conference announced it would allow its teams to schedule a nonconference foe if that team can meet Pac-12 COVID-19 protocols, including once-weekly polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests and daily antigen testing for each day of close-contact athletic activity.
A BYU spokesperson told ESPN on Thursday, "BYU remains open to exploring options to add football games this season with schools from any conference playing nonleague games, including the Pac-12, and will evaluate week to week."
If a Pac-12 team doesn't work, BYU should aim to schedule a top Group of 5 team -- ideally a Marshall, or Coastal Carolina or Louisiana. It's still going to be difficult to overcome Cincinnati's strength of schedule, but it could at least give the Cougars further consideration for a New Year's Six bowl bid.
Oregon is still hanging on
Oregon is 3-0 after its 38-35 win against UCLA, but it was closer than expected considering the Bruins were without starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who missed the game because of contact tracing.
Much like Ohio State, Oregon is still early in its season and hasn't reached its full potential -- but it also has only three games remaining. As the Pac-12's highest-ranked team, the Ducks are the league's best shot at a semifinal spot right now, and if they finish as an undefeated conference champion, the committee would absolutely consider them. They have to start looking the part, though -- quickly.
Ohio State just beat a top-10 team, while Oregon probably won't have that opportunity.
Too little, too late for the Sooners and the Big 12
With Oklahoma's victory against Oklahoma State, the Big 12 is now guaranteed to have a two-loss conference champion, likely eliminating it from the College Football Playoff. The ACC (Notre Dame), the SEC (Alabama), the Pac-12 (USC and Oregon) and the Big Ten (Ohio State, Northwestern) all have undefeated teams remaining, while undefeated Cincinnati and BYU could also make a stronger case than the Big 12 champion if they finish undefeated. The Big 12's best teams are also still behind one-loss contenders Clemson, Texas A&M and Florida.