We recently outlined the college football teams that have done more with less on the recruiting trail, determining which teams turned underrated recruits into stars.
It's only natural we look at the opposite and analyze which teams did less with more, meaning which programs signed the most ESPN 300 prospects but did not get the full potential out of those recruits.
For this exercise, we looked at 14 teams that signed the most ESPN 300 recruits from the 2015, 2016 and 2017 classes. We did not include players who are still on the roster, players who opted out of this season or players who medically retired when analyzing what has happened in the top-300 recruits' careers.
To look at which programs haven't been able to get the most out of their top prospects, we looked at the number of players selected in the draft, first-team all-conference and consensus All-American selections, as well as the number of recruits who transferred or left the program for whatever reason.
It's one thing to land a ton of ESPN 300 recruits on signing day, but it's another to bring out the most out of those prospects.
Here's a look at which teams did the least with the most.
NFL draft selections
This category is pretty self-explanatory: The ESPN 300 commitments from the 2015 to 2017 classes who were selected in the NFL draft.
We are looking at the percentage of ESPN 300 prospects that are eligible to be drafted. Any players who are currently enrolled on the team were not counted in the total number of ESPN 300 commitments for that team.
Some of the prospects from the 2016 and 2017 classes are in their fifth and fourth years, respectively, so not all of them have finished their college careers.
Here are the percentages of eligible ESPN 300 commitments to get drafted for each team:
Auburn 8.6% (2)
Tennessee 11.1% (2)
Florida State 14.8% (4)
Oklahoma 22.2% (4)
Texas 23% (6)
USC 30% (9)
Michigan 33.3% (9)
Georgia 33.3% (11)
LSU 37.1% (13)
Alabama 37.8% (14)
Clemson 40% (10)
Ohio State 44.8% (13)
Miami 47.3% (9)
Auburn had a total of 23 ESPN 300 signees that were eligible to be counted in these statistics and had only two players drafted from these three classes. There are still quite a few players on the roster from the 2017 class, so this number could go up, but as it stands, Auburn has the lowest percentage of ESPN 300 players drafted.
Tennessee had 18 eligible players for this exercise and also had two players drafted. The Vols don't have many players still on the roster from these classes, so that number likely won't improve much. It should be noted Tennessee had 12 ESPN 300 signees in the 2016 and 2017 classes combined and 13 in 2015.
Florida State had the sixth most ESPN 300 signees within this time frame and had the third worst NFL draft percentage (4/27).
Conversely, Miami had 19 ESPN 300 eligible signees, and nine of them were drafted to the NFL. Ohio State (13/29) and Clemson (10/25) were also two of the more successful programs.
First-team all-conference selections
This category was a little bit harder to compare because it's not technically based on the same criteria. There are different talent levels in different conferences, so this category is looking only at first-team all-conference players to try to make it more meaningful.
Here are the percentages of players from each class who became first-team all-conference selections from the 2015 to 2017 classes:
Tennessee 0% (0)
Oklahoma 5.5% (1)
Florida State 7.4% (2)
Miami 10.5% (2)
Texas 11.5% (3)
Georgia 15.15% (5)
Auburn 17.3% (4)
LSU 20% (7)
USC 23.3% (7)
Alabama 24.3% (9)
Michigan 29.6% (8)
Ohio State 31% (9)
Clemson 44% (11)
Tennessee's number speaks for itself: None of their ESPN 300 signees in this period became first-team All-SEC players. To Tennessee's defense, having the fewest number of ESPN 300 signees is going to lend itself to having a lower chance of players panning out, but it didn't have any out of the 18 eligible players.
Oklahoma also had 18 eligible players but had one player selected as first-team all-conference. Florida State had two selections from 27 players, Texas had three selections from 26 players and Georgia had five from 33.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Clemson had only 25 eligible players and still had 11 first-team all-conference players. Ohio State had nine selections from 29 players and Michigan had eight selections from 27.
All-America selections
Similar to the all-conference selections, we limited this to just consensus All-America players. This is about who did the least with most and a consensus All-American is a clear-cut look at a player and his accomplishments.
Here are the percentages of All-American selections for each team:
Miami 0% (0)
Tennessee 0% (0)
Florida State 0% (0)
USC 0% (0)
Michigan 3.7% (1)
Texas 3.8% (1)
Auburn 4.3% (1)
Oklahoma 5.5% (1)
Georgia 6% (2)
Ohio State 6.8% (2)
LSU 11.4% (4)
Clemson 16% (4)
Alabama 18.9% (7)
There were bound to be a lot of teams without players in this category because there aren't many consensus All-Americans each season. However, it does indicate separation between the top teams and the bottom ones. It's worth noting Alabama and LSU each had one player who was selected twice in two separate years, so they were each counted as two entries given how difficult that is to accomplish.
There were four teams with no selections, yet Alabama had seven, Clemson had four from its 25 players, LSU had four from its 35 players and both Ohio State and Georgia had two each. There isn't much separation from the Buckeyes and Dawgs and the next four teams as each had one selection.
This is an interesting category because these players are playing at the highest level, and while it's difficult to get a large number of players in this category, it shows who is getting the most out of its top recruits.
Five-star recruits
We also looked at five-star signees and how they fared for each team. There were 44 prospects rated five stars from 2015 to 2017, but not every team signed a five-star prospect, so that won't ultimately be factored in to who has done the least with the most.
Auburn signed three prospects ranked as five stars from 2015 to 2017 and had two NFL draft picks out of it (running back Kerryon Johnson and defensive tackle Derrick Brown). The other, Byron Cowart, ended up transferring.
Georgia signed five, but Robert Beal is still on the roster, so he does not count toward this exercise. Out of the four players left, Trenton Thompson went undrafted and Deangelo Gibbs transferred. Offensive lineman Isaiah Wilson was a first-round draft pick and tight end Isaac Nauta was taken in the seventh round.
USC had Iman Marshall sign and turned him into a fourth-round pick. LSU's Kevin Toliver went undrafted, while Michigan's Rashan Gary was a first-round selection.
Florida State had five recruits ranked as five-stars that count for our stats, and that excludes Marvin Wilson and Joshua Kaindoh, who are both still on the roster. Among those players who do count, though, George Campbell transferred, Levonta Taylor went undrafted, Josh Sweat was drafted in the fourth-round, while Derwin James was a first-round pick.
The Buckeyes had three five-stars with Torrance Gibson transferring, but both Jeff Okudah and Nick Bosa became first-round draft picks.
Clemson had undrafted offensive lineman Mitch Hyatt, who had a lot of accolades in college, as well as first-round selection Dexter Lawrence.
Three of the five five-star prospects Alabama signed in this period are still on the Crimson Tide roster (Najee Harris, Alex Leatherwood, Dylan Moses). The other two, Kendall Sheffield and Blake Barnett, transferred.
Tennessee signed Trey Smith, but he is still playing and doesn't count.
Transfers
Players transferring is part of the collegiate landscape now, but it also needs to be taken into account when talking about which teams have gotten the most out of their ESPN 300 signees. We are including players who transferred, were dismissed from the team or left the team before their eligibility was up.
Here are the percentages of ESPN 300 recruits from 2015 to 2017 who did not finish their career with the teams they signed with:
Oklahoma 72.2% (13)
Michigan 62.9% (17)
Texas 61.5% (16)
Florida State 59.2% (16)
USC 53.3% (16)
Auburn 52.1% (12)
Alabama 51.3% (19)
Ohio State 44.8% (13)
LSU 40% (14)
Georgia 39.3% (13)
Tennessee 33.3% (6)
Clemson 28% (7)
Miami 26.3% (5)
These numbers are pretty staggering to look at. Of Oklahoma's 18 signees eligible for this exercise, 13 did not finish their career with the Sooners -- five from the 2017 class and four from the 2015 and 2016 classes. Medical retirements weren't included in this category because that can't be controlled.
Michigan's number is high as well. The Wolverines had nine of their 11 players from the 2017 class transfer or leave and seven of the 13 from the 2016 leave, meaning only eight of the 23 eligible ESPN 300 prospects from those classes finished at Michigan.
All of these numbers are pretty shocking, considering the best percentage is 26.3%. They help illustrate the fact that there's more to recruiting than just landing ESPN 300 prospects, getting them to campus and unleashing them on the field. The chances that those recruits will finish their career at the school they signed with aren't very high outside of a few schools.
It should be noted that these are the schools that signed the most ESPN 300 recruits in these three classes, and they're also schools that consistently sign a lot of talent. That means new prospects are coming in each class and the competition level is high.
Who did the least with the most?
Based on all the numbers, a few schools stand out with low grades.
Florida State is in the bottom five statistically for every single category. The Seminoles had the third worst draft percentage, all-conference and all-American players, and were No. 4 in the percentage of transfers it has seen from its ESPN 300 prospects.
It's no surprise given the product on the field, but it does present a picture of the struggles in Tallahassee and why Mike Norvell was brought in.
Tennessee ranks in the bottom five for each category except for the number of transfers or dismissals, where the Vols had the third-best percentage, indicating players weren't leaving as much as other places. The problem is they weren't being developed into the top players in college football, which is what we're trying to measure here.
Oklahoma, surprisingly, is in the bottom five for each category except for All-Americans, where the Sooners had one of their 18 signees become an All-American. Their high transfer total is a big reason they ranked so low in other categories. After all, teams can't get production out of players who aren't on the team.
It should also be noted that seven of the 13 players who left were defensive recruits, which is another partial explanation for Oklahoma's defensive performance the past few seasons.
Texas is also in the bottom five for each category but one. Similar to Oklahoma, the only category the Longhorns are not in the bottom five is All-Americans, where Texas had one of its 26 eligible players selected as a consensus All-American.
Texas was fifth worst for drafted players (six), fifth worst for first-team all-conference players (three) and third worst for number of players to transfer or leave the program (16). Of those 16 players, nine came from the 2016 class, five of which were defensive recruits.
These numbers don't tell the whole story, but they do help show which schools are landing ESPN 300 recruits but not capitalizing on the potential from those prospects, and just how hard it really is to build a team.
Stars matter and rankings matter when it comes to predicting talent on teams, but evaluations need to be right with how players fit in the locker room, how they can be developed and ultimately what they can do for that team.
Coaches can't just go out and land every top-ranked prospect in the class and expect that to be enough. Building a team and managing a roster requires a lot more than just signing star players, and that shows with these numbers.