Ohio State has reentered the 2020 college football season ... as the national championship favorite, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Back in May when we first released our model's preseason projections, the Buckeyes trailed Clemson in title chances by a significant margin. But a lot has happened since May. The Big Ten and Pac-12 dropped out, schedules were altered, some divisions nixed and, eventually, games were played. The landscape shifted, and so too did the odds.
FPI now considers Ohio State the best team in college football, going forward. And it gives the Buckeyes a 26% chance to win it all, followed closely by Alabama at 23% and Clemson at 21%.
So, how did that all happen?
The first change actually wasn't related to the pandemic at all. It was when a spinal injury prematurely ended Tigers star receiver Justyn Ross' season. Between May and September, Clemson's FPI rating dropped two points per game -- largely attributed to losing Ross.
Once games began, Clemson's rating dropped further. Because while the Tigers won their games against Wake Forest and The Citadel handily, FPI ratings movement is all about performance against expectation. And in both cases, FPI expected Clemson to win by more. As a result, Clemson is now considered the third-best team in college football, behind two teams that haven't played -- Ohio State and Alabama.
To be fair to Clemson: Against The Citadel, Trevor Lawrence attempted just nine pass attempts before the Tigers -- who did not score in the second half -- took their foot off the gas. That was not full-strength Clemson for four quarters by any stretch. This is not a new factor in FPI, but right now it (likely) disproportionately affects Clemson -- so it's a fair question to ask if the Tigers are being a little underrated right now. (For those wondering why FPI counts garbage time, the answer is that in a sport with as small of a sample as college football, we'd hate to throw out any data, even if it reflects the abilities of backups).
There were other considerations for the Tigers, but they appear not to have been major factors. Clemson's game against Notre Dame is now an ACC game, but because of the lack of divisions, it is unlikely to affect the Tigers' chances of reaching the ACC championship game. Losing would be a big deal -- Clemson has only about a 1-in-3 chance to reach the playoff as a 1-loss ACC champion -- but that has always been true this season, and the Tigers were always playing Notre Dame.
For Ohio State: The Buckeyes no longer have Oregon or Iowa on their schedule. That works both ways. On one hand, Ohio State has an easier path to going undefeated, and indeed, the Buckeyes' chances of reaching the Big Ten championship game have gone up since May with the elimination of the Iowa game.
On the other: By playing an easier schedule -- with the loss of the Oregon game and fewer overall games -- their margin for error is diminished. In simulations in which Ohio State is a one-loss conference champion, it has only a 45% chance to reach the playoff.
Don't forget, a one-loss champion Ohio State would be just 8-1. The selection committee would have to reconcile that record with teams from other conferences that played one, two or three more contests than the Buckeyes. Fortunately, translating resumes across a differing number of games is a talent of Strength of Record.
On the graphic below we can see the chance for an average top-25 team to go either undefeated or earn just one loss against each of these top teams' schedules entering their possible conference championship games. Going undefeated against Clemson's 11-game schedule would be more impressive than doing so against Ohio State's eight-game slate. And in fact, going undefeated against Ohio State's schedule is only barely more difficult than going 9-1 against Alabama's.
Ultimately, what are the benefits and costs of the Buckeyes' schedule? It basically evens out. Ohio State had a 64% chance to reach the playoff when we first introduced our projections, and a 68% chance now (the lack of a Pac-12 obviously helps, too). Clemson (68%) is, coincidentally, just as likely to reach the playoff as OSU, and Alabama (65%) -- with its harder schedule -- is just a few percentage points behind. But because Justin Fields and the Buckeyes are just as likely as anyone to reach the postseason and are considered slightly better than everyone, they have the best chance to win it all -- even if by a slim margin.
Lauren Poe contributed to this story.