Normally, we spend the weeks before the college football season asking coaches to dish about fun, hot-button topics around the sport. In last year's Confidential, coaches debated Tua vs. Trevor, how Jalen Hurts would fare at Oklahoma and Urban Meyer's coaching future.
But this season isn't a normal one, and the coronavirus pandemic has shaped all of our conversations with coaches. We've talked more about testing and contact tracing than quarterback competitions or new coordinators. While everyone is thrilled to see games kicking off, the biggest questions still relate to COVID-19 management.
"It's your biggest opponent," a Group of 5 coordinator said, "and you have to treat it that way."
We're doing so with this year's topics:
Which teams are best set up to handle the potential loss of key players, or even an entire position group, because of COVID-19 protocols?
What highly ranked teams could be in real trouble? Who are the coaches best equipped to make the right adjustments throughout the fall?
Which teams could make their College Football Playoff debuts in a season with a lot of unusual elements?
We asked these questions and others to FBS head coaches and assistants in conferences set to play this fall. We granted anonymity so they could speak freely.
Here's a look at what they said.
Which top teams are set up best and worst to handle the COVID-19 restrictions?
Top teams felt the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as soon as they returned to campus for workouts in June. LSU and Clemson, the teams that met for the national title on Jan. 13, both dealt with large outbreaks right away. Many teams paused workouts and then preseason practices. Tennessee, TCU and Auburn have recently dealt with large chunks of their rosters in quarantine, either because of positive tests or contact-tracing rules.
The season likely will bring more of the same, at least until reliable, rapid testing is in place around the country.
"There's no doubt that the same ones that we all mention for the playoff every year are going to be in better shape than the rest of us because they've got more players," a Power 5 head coach said. "I'm having to cross-train five guys, six guys just to make it through a game because we have a lot hurt or a lot sick. Alabama and Georgia and Clemson aren't worried about that."
Not surprisingly, the same group of teams excel in recruiting rankings, which coaches said could carry greater weight this season because more young players might be thrust into key roles right away. Clemson, Georgia, Alabama and LSU occupied the top four lines of ESPN's 2020 recruiting rankings.
Texas A&M, Auburn, Florida, Texas and Oklahoma also appear in the top 10, along with Ohio State, which had its fall season postponed.
"There aren't many ready-made players out there, and the teams that get them -- the Clemsons, Alabamas, Oklahomas -- will have a greater advantage than ever this year," a Power 5 head coach said. "What happened clearly favors the most talented teams. ... The developmental programs will be hit hard because we lose five months of that development.
"Again, go look at the teams that get the freshmen who are ready to come in and play. That will be more valuable than ever this year."
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Several coaches noted the different roster realities around the country after a spring and summer of facing the pandemic. Some teams already have had many players test positive for the virus and recover, which could make them exempt from testing for up to three months.
The contact-tracing piece could wipe out entire positions, leading many coaches to wonder whether everybody will operate by the same guidelines when it comes to contact tracing.
"I can tell you right now that the definition of what constitutes a close contact to somebody who's tested positive is going to vary from team to team," a Power 5 coach said. "That part of it is not going to be the same for everybody."
Coaches said that while 2020 will test every team's overall depth, the line positions on both sides of the ball and quarterback will be especially essential. They also said teams with established schemes and coordinators have an edge, giving even the inexperienced players a greater level of comfort.
A former Power 5 head coach told ESPN that Clemson and Alabama both project as teams that should handle the unique challenges of 2020, but he gives an edge to Clemson.
"You survive in this environment a lot better if you lose your quarterback and players at key positions if you're playing Wake Forest and NC State and Boston College," the former coach said. "But if you're playing Auburn and LSU and A&M, hell no. You're in trouble."
Not surprisingly, coaches aren't optimistic about teams led by first-year coaches in 2020.
"They don't even know their team," a Power 5 head coach said. "You're asking the kids to do things that are abnormal for them. If they trust you, they're going to do it. If they don't trust you, 'We don't want to practice today, I'm opting out.'"
Defending national champion LSU has been hit hard by opt-outs, losing wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, the 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner, as well as four others, including promising defensive lineman Tyler Shelvin.
It's not just LSU either.
"Any of the elite teams with playoff hopes that maybe get off to a rough start could have challenges keeping their players with high NFL grades engaged," a Power 5 coach said. "Remember, kids can opt out at any point in the season. I think that's probably going to be the new norm going forward."
Which coaches will best navigate the challenges of a season during the pandemic?
Coaches are creatures of routine -- down to the minute -- and they don't like surprises.
Many are watching how the sport's most prominent coaches, Clemson's Dabo Swinney and Alabama's Nick Saban, manage a season unlike any other. Clemson and Alabama enter the season ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.
"The guys who are positive people by nature, a guy like Dabo Swinney, will handle it fine," a Power 5 offensive coordinator told ESPN. "You've got to realize going into it that things aren't going to be perfect and there are going to be some setbacks. Dabo is one of those guys who will manage that well. Now, somebody who's more high-strung and tightly wired and lets stuff affect them more than they should could be in trouble, and there's probably a lot of us out there like that."
Saban fits into the high-strung category and runs Alabama's program with unparalleled structure. But coaches point out that Saban's success largely stems from his ability to adjust, especially amid adversity. Alabama hasn't lost to an unranked team since Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa in 2007.
"Anybody who's played for or coached with him will tell you that he's at his best after a loss and not all gloom and doom," a Power 5 coach said. "He's always teaching and talking about, 'This is where we need to get better and how we're going to do it.' Where he's unbearable is after a win, because he never wants anybody to get comfortable.
"The older guys, Saban, Les Miles, we've been through 9/11 [terrorist attacks], we've been through lots of injuries, we've been through protests before, we've been through hurricanes, we've been through delay of games for three hours because of lightning," a veteran head coach said. "The more experiences you've had with uncertain things, the better you handle this.
"We're all creatures of routine. The ones that have had the routines the longest are the ones that are going to handle this the best."
Many coaches who spoke to ESPN stressed staff continuity as especially important in making daily or weekly adjustments.
"It's going to come down to your veteran strength coaches, really, guys who can walk into the head coach's office and say, 'Hey, look, we need to pull back or we need to ramp up,' and the head coach listens," a Power 5 coordinator said. "[If] you've got a young head coach and a young strength coach, that may be a recipe for miscalculation."
Coaches said the key is maintaining as much normalcy as possible while not being blind to the emotional realities of 2020. Players are facing the pandemic and are coming off a summer filled with social justice initiatives.
One coach said he isn't going to yell at players this season and that he has told his staff to be mindful of the unknowns in what he described as "a little bit of an exhibition season."
"At some point, the kids are going to be like, 'Is it really worth it?'" the coach said. "This is a year that there's going to be different emotions, different concerns, different anxieties. As coaches, we better not create our own problems."
Which teams could make their CFP debut during a quirky season?
Since the College Football Playoff launched before the 2014 season, 17 of the 24 spots have been occupied by four teams -- Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State. But the four have never made the CFP in the same season, a trend that will continue this year after the Big Ten's postponement.
The odd circumstances around the 2020 season, from the pandemic determining player availability to the absence of significant nonleague games, could create opportunities for potential playoff newcomers. Some coaches aren't so sure, though.
"It's going to be harder," a Power 5 head coach said. "I think we see the same old, same old, because they've got better players and they've got more depth. This does not seem like a Cinderella year."
Another Power 5 coach noted that the schedule models -- conference-only or conference games plus one -- increase the difficulty.
"The way the SEC set it up, there is no way an underdog is going to beat five Top 25 teams," he said.
What's more, several coaches said they are going to know less about their teams going into the first game this season than ever before, especially in the physical parts of the game such as blocking, tackling and those areas where development and repetition are paramount.
"It could be pretty sketchy early on, because you're just not going to know as much about a lot of the players who haven't played, and you're also not getting those two or three gimme games early in the year where you can put some of those kids in and find out," a Power 5 coach said. "You're jumping right into it."
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Two teams that coaches are monitoring for potential CFP breakthroughs are Florida and Texas. Both are led by veteran quarterbacks -- Kyle Trask (UF) and Sam Ehlinger (UT) -- and offensive-minded coaches. Dan Mullen has led the Gators to Peach and Orange Bowl championships in his first two years, while Tom Herman guided Texas to a Sugar Bowl title two years ago, before a disappointing 2019 season.
Both must also overcome rivals -- Georgia and Oklahoma -- widely projected to make the CFP field.
"Dan is really good the more he's been with a quarterback, and [Trask] understands that system," a Power 5 head coach said. "I think Florida has a big-time shot to get there this year, although their third game at Texas A&M will tell us a lot about them."
Mullen has also kept veteran defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, a finalist for the Mississippi State head-coaching job this past offseason. Grantham turned down the Cincinnati Bengals' defensive coordinator job two years ago.
"The teams who have continuity from last year to this year in regards to their coaching staffs and not having to learn a lot of new schemes and things like that, those are the teams best equipped to handle this year," a Power 5 offensive coordinator told ESPN. "That's Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, all of the usual suspects; but Florida's in that group too."
Herman overhauled his staff after an 8-5 season in 2019, replacing both coordinators and four other assistants. Chris Ash, who served alongside Herman as Urban Meyer's coordinators when Ohio State won the 2014 national title, takes over the Longhorns' defense. Mike Yurcich, a former Oklahoma State offensive coordinator who helped Justin Fields' development last fall as Ohio State's quarterbacks coach, will oversee Ehlinger and the offense.
A Power 5 coach described Ash's scheme as "completely different" from what Texas used under Todd Orlando, who regularly took chances with playcalls. Although the Longhorns have plenty of options in the secondary, "up front, they're not extremely talented," the coach said.
Most coaches don't project playoff candidates from the ACC other than Clemson (five straight appearances) or Notre Dame (one appearance). The SEC's playoff pool could include Texas A&M and Auburn, while Oklahoma State, with a dynamic offense, could be a fringe candidate in the Big 12. All five of those teams would be first-time playoff entrants.
"I don't think you'll have a surprise," a Power 5 coach said, "because I don't think a surprise is going to be able to consistently beat 10 teams."