Alabama is certainly not used to this.
For the first time in the playoff era, Nick Saban's team is pressed against a fogged-up window and left out in the cold.
For only the third time in the past 11 seasons, Alabama enters the postseason unable to compete for a national championship. The Tide lost more than one regular-season game for the first time since 2010, which means that for just the third time in Saban's historic tenure, Bama isn't participating in a New Year's Six bowl game (instead facing No. 14 Michigan on Jan. 1 in the Vrbo Citrus Bowl).
"Losing two games at Bama feels like you lost six," an SEC assistant said.
That's the monster Saban has created at Alabama, which would consume most coaches. But Saban embraces it and has been known to halfway-joke about it. Hall of Fame coach Steve Spurrier shared an exchange he once had with Saban.
"I told him he won't retire until he loses three games in a season," Spurrier told ESPN. "He told me, 'If I ever lose three games around here again, they might kill me.'
"I think he was joking, but I'm not sure."
Alabama's 48-45 loss to Auburn in a bizarre Iron Bowl effectively eliminated the Tide from playoff contention. The defeat also set off a new round of proclamations that Saban's dynasty is over and the program has started to slip. The truth: Alabama won 10 games with two losses by a combined eight points, and did so after losing its best defensive player (linebacker Dylan Moses) before the season, and Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a devastating hip injury two weeks before the Iron Bowl. If Tagovailoa had been healthy all season -- he played against LSU less than three weeks after tightrope ankle surgery -- perhaps Alabama would have kept its playoff streak alive.
But Alabama's failure -- by Saban's standards, this season certainly qualifies -- exposes some questions about the program: What happened to Alabama's signature defense? How has the constant turnover on Saban's staff impacted the team? What's next, given the uncertainty around Tagovailoa and a number of expected departures to the NFL? We surveyed coaches about Alabama and where the program goes from here.
What happened to the signature defense?
Alabama entered the fall ranked No. 2 in the polls and had one of the Heisman favorites in Tagovailoa. But there were some potential concerns, especially about a defense that had allowed 106 points and 1,443 yards (6.8 yards per play) in the final three games last season.
Coaches scouting the Tide noted that the defense, for years Saban's signature unit at Alabama, seemed to be lacking something.
Saban told ESPN in early August that Alabama's expected youth on defense would put a premium on staying healthy, especially at linebacker. Weeks later, Moses, a preseason All-America candidate and No. 13 on Mel Kiper's preseason Big Board for the 2020 draft, suffered a season-ending ACL tear in practice. Alabama already had lost senior Joshua McMillon, a projected starter next to Moses at linebacker, to a knee injury earlier in camp.
"Injuries crushed them," a Power 5 coordinator said. "They had a national title team. Just got hurt."
The Tide ended up starting six freshmen on defense, most in the FBS, including full-time linebacker starters Shane Lee and Christian Harris. Two years ago, Alabama overcame myriad injuries at linebacker, squeaked into the CFP and won the national title. But this season's injury toll, especially losing Moses, impacted areas like run defense, where Alabama ranks 36th in yards per game allowed and 43rd in yards per rush allowed.
"Average to below-average at linebacker," a Power 5 offensive coordinator described Alabama.
A Power 5 coach added: "It's tough to play with young linebackers. But you also look at their roster, and they haven't had as many of those dominant difference-makers up front. That's where they separated themselves from everybody else."
Alabama is tied for 45th nationally in sacks (29) and tied for 61st in tackles for loss (72), ranking sixth in the SEC in both categories. The Tide still produced two first-team All-SEC defenders -- linebacker Anfernee Jennings and safety Xavier McKinney -- and three more on the second team, but this season showed that even Alabama isn't immune to the impact of injuries.
"They're not choking people out on defense," an SEC assistant said. "They're a little notch down right now than what they traditionally have been. Saban would probably say that."
To be fair, Alabama also became less reliant on its defense, recognizing the incredible potential of Tagovailoa and the offense. Even with Tagovailoa's injuries this fall, the Tide eclipsed 500 yards in all but three games and had 448 yards or more in all but one contest. Tagovailoa and backup Mac Jones combined for 44 touchdown passes and only six interceptions.
The new Alabama formula proved productive and successful, but some coaches wonder if the Tide left something behind in the offensive philosophy shift.
"They've recruited so many elite athletes that they've lost some of their toughness on that side of the ball," a Power 5 coach said. "Their offense is really, really good. But remember, they've gotten into some really big games ... where they lit it up, but then they weren't able to run the ball like they used to."
An ever-changing coaching staff
Coaches still have great respect for Alabama's talent and Saban's coaching. But the issue most often highlighted as a concern, even before the season, is Alabama's ever-changing coaching staff.
Half of Saban's on-field staff of assistants from the 2018 team did not return, including the two primary coordinators, Mike Locksley and Tosh Lupoi, as well as quarterbacks coach Dan Enos and receivers coach Josh Gattis. Saban lost both of his coordinators from the 2017 team, Brian Daboll and Jeremy Pruitt, as well as defensive backs coach Derrick Ansley (now Tennessee's defensive coordinator) and defensive line coach Karl Dunbar.
"A revolving door," an SEC coordinator said.
Alabama's staff shuffling stands in stark contrast to its primary competitor, Clemson, which kept all three of its coordinators through a historic five-year run until co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott was hired earlier this month as South Florida's head coach.
"I don't know if Nick forces it or it's just the way it is," an SEC coordinator said. "After a couple years, they're like, 'I need to get moving.' The way he does it, everybody comes in, they have to follow his terminology, his deal. That way, it's not as much of a transition for the players. But it's still a transition, no matter what, the way they approach it, how they get coached, that kind of stuff."
Any coach who arrives in Tuscaloosa falls in line with The Saban Way. Saban has benefited from keeping strength coach Scott Cochran and head athletic trainer Jeff Allen on staff, but in recent years he also has lost longtime assistants to other schools or had them move into off-field roles.
"The one thing he's always had on his staff is his rocks, at least one or two on the field, coaches who know him and have been with him like Kirby Smart or Bobby Williams or Kevin Steele or Burton Burns," a Power 5 coach said. "He's lost some of those guys, and that's going to hurt any coach."
Saban has expressed frustration, at least privately, about not wanting to be in the business of running a "football coaches academy," where guys come in for a year or two and then bolt because they get promotions at other schools, often times schools Alabama ends up playing. But promising coaches know that adding the Saban experience on their résumé puts them on the fast track for better jobs. Of the 18 on-field assistants who left in the past four seasons, seven are FBS head coaches and six left for NFL positions (Sarkisian left Alabama for the Atlanta Falcons, only to return two years later).
Some coaches think the staff changes -- and also the types of coaches coming in and out -- have impacted Alabama's recruiting and roster composition.
"The recruiting rankings are one thing, but actually signing the best players [to fit your system] are another," a Power 5 coordinator said. "So when you have that [staff] turnover, you have guys signing stars, not signing players. You're always going to be top three in recruiting and always going to have great players, but you're now signing the stars. You know you're not coaching them.
"You're not signing the best players. You're signing the highest-ranked players."
Alabama's 2020 recruiting class trails only Clemson's in ESPN's national rankings. The Tide had ESPN's top-ranked class in 2019 and occupied the top spot in five out of six years between 2012 and 2017. They've also increasingly become more national, signing top players out of California, the Washington, D.C.-Baltimore area, Florida and New Jersey.
The Tide still lure strong players from within the state or from neighboring states like Georgia, but the roster demographics are shifting. Saban built the program largely with homegrown defenders. Since the 2011 NFL draft, Alabama has had 14 defensive linemen or linebackers selected in the first or second round. Ten were in-state products, and all but one came from the Southeast.
"Their recruiting has been different than when he first got there, and part of that is going all over the country and signing players because they're Alabama and they can," a Power 5 coach said. "But you don't know as much about those players, don't know their toughness, don't know their competitive spirit."
What does the future hold?
Take a look back at Tua Tagovailoa's best moments at Alabama and see what the No. 5 pick in the 2020 NFL draft will bring to South Beach.
Saban is always thinking ahead. When Alabama reaches the national title game, he stews about how it costs him time on the recruiting trail. After not reaching the CFP for the first time, he'll want to turn the page quickly.
What does that mean for the staff? Coaches think Saban is pleased with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, who maintained production this season. Neither Sarkisian nor defensive coordinator Pete Golding gained serious interest for head-coaching opportunities this year, so there's a good chance Alabama returns both coordinators for the first time since 2015 (Smart, Lane Kiffin).
There could still be changes, but likely not a major staff overhaul.
"It almost happens naturally every year, and it's been so quiet over there, it makes you nervous," an SEC coordinator joked.
Tagovailoa's health and status loom large for 2020, as the quarterback still hasn't announced whether he'll enter the NFL draft or return to Alabama. The offense could change significantly without Tagovailoa, a record-setting passer who masterfully executed RPOs and kept defenses on their heels. Top receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III are likely off to the NFL.
"I don't think [Saban] will ever leave the passing game completely because you have to be able to score big in today's game," an SEC coach said. "But I do think he will start taking more pressure off the defense by running the ball a little bit more and slowing it down a little bit more."
Saban has shown the ability to make corrections. After the dip in 2010, he led Alabama to consecutive national titles. After missing the BCS title game in 2013, Alabama reached the playoff the following year and won a championship in 2015. The Tide have never gone three seasons without a national title under Saban.
But a return to the top isn't a guarantee.
"The teams that could be elite in the conference are finally gaining momentum," an SEC coordinator said. "Saban had his run when Georgia was down, Florida didn't have an elite recruiter and LSU was an absolute cluster for five years. Now you have Georgia and LSU recruiting at an elite level."
The climb seems steeper and more treacherous this time, but Saban, even at 68, will do everything possible to prevent Alabama from slipping again.