Two years ago, Matt Luke landed his dream job as Ole Miss' permanent head coach after an emotional upset of Mississippi State in Starkville. This year, just four days after Ole Miss' rally against the Bulldogs fell short, thanks to an embarrassing penalty and a missed extra point, Luke is surprisingly out as Rebels coach.
A very active Sunday on the college coaching carousel ended with a shocker. Luke was expected back for a third season, despite consecutive losing records. He helped his alma mater through a difficult period of NCAA sanctions following Hugh Freeze's departure. Ole Miss only recently removed the interim tag from athletic director Keith Carter, who gave strong initial support for Luke and the program's future.
The lesson here: Never underestimate the significance of the Egg Bowl. Luke finishes 15-21 in three seasons with the Rebels.
Ole Miss hopes to restore the winning and recruiting success it enjoyed under Hugh Freeze without the looming shadow of potential NCAA violations. It will be interesting to see how coaches and their agents view this job. Freeze, Houston Nutt, David Cutcliffe, Tommy Tuberville and Billy Brewer all recorded at least two seasons of eight or more wins at Ole Miss, but none consistently contended for SEC titles.
Although Luke had great institutional knowledge of Ole Miss, he lacked head-coaching experience and likely would not have been a candidate anywhere else. Ole Miss likely will target sitting head coaches who can recruit the area (both high schools and junior colleges) and compete against programs with greater resources in college football's toughest division. Although Luke brought in two coordinators with Power 5 head-coaching experience this season in Rich Rodriguez and Mike MacIntyre, we don't expect Ole Miss to look internally.
Fortunately, the potential candidate pool provides some interesting options. Here's a closer look.
The candidates
Memphis coach Mike Norvell: His name is being mentioned for almost every Power 5 vacancy, and this increasingly looks like the year when Norvell moves up. He has led Memphis to three consecutive AAC West division titles and a 37-15 overall record. The Tigers host Cincinnati this week in the conference title game. Norvell, 38, is an elite playcaller with an exciting offense who has recruited Mississippi/Tennessee/Arkansas -- as well as other regions -- and would put together a strong staff. The big question is his interest in the job, given that he will likely have other options.
Louisiana-Lafayette coach Billy Napier: Here's another young, offensive-minded coach who has proven himself right away in his first job. Napier is 17-9 at ULL, with two Sun Belt West Division championships. He has strong ties to the Southeast and the SEC, as the son of a Georgia high school coach who spent five years on the Alabama staff and had a five-year run at Clemson. The 40-year-old projects as a future SEC coach, and Ole Miss could be the first to land him.
Florida Atlantic coach Lane Kiffin: Suddenly, the Lane Train is rolling again. After dipping to 5-7 in 2018, Florida Atlantic will play for its second Conference USA title in three years under Kiffin this week. The key question is whether Ole Miss sees Kiffin as a risk after the way the Freeze tenure ended. (Kiffin's brother, Chris, was penalized for NCAA violations while coaching at Ole Miss.) Kiffin, 44, is a proven playcaller who would energize Ole Miss' recruiting efforts. He knows the SEC well from his time at Tennessee and Alabama and would immediately bring attention to the program.
UAB coach Bill Clark: Even without NCAA sanctions, Ole Miss faces some inherent challenges, and who better to deal with those than Clark? He shepherded UAB through a two-year hiatus and has gone 28-11 with two Conference USA West division titles since the program resumed competition. There are only a few Power 5 programs that make sense for Clark, 51, a longtime high school coach who has spent only one year coaching outside the state of Alabama. But Ole Miss could be a very good fit.
Appalachian State coach Eliah Drinkwitz: He hasn't been a head coach as long as Norvell or even Napier, but he boasts a similar profile. Drinkwitz, 36, has Power 5 offensive coordinator experience and knows the area after attending college in Arkansas and working under Gus Malzahn at both Auburn and Arkansas State. He entered a great program with Appalachain State but has enhanced it with two Power 5 wins (North Carolina, South Carolina) in his first year.
Indiana coach Tom Allen: The lowest-paid coach in the Big Ten is due a restructured contract after guiding Indiana to its first eight-win season since 1993 (bowl game still to come). If Indiana drags its feet, Ole Miss could be a tempting option for Allen. He spent three seasons as the Rebels' linebackers coach and special-teams coordinator after a year at Arkansas State. Allen, 49, can recruit Florida and other areas in the SEC footprint. He also understands the challenge of winning at a have-not program in a loaded division.
Tulane coach Willie Fritz: Although I think Fritz is a better fit at Missouri, he could gain traction for the Rebels job. He's a proven coach who won at Georgia Southern and has guided Tulane to consecutive bowl appearances. A poor finish to the regular season might hurt Fritz's chances, but the 59-year-old has won everywhere he has been. He also knows the junior college scene very well from his time at Blinn College (Texas) and elsewhere.
Washington State coach Mike Leach: He might be better suited for the Arkansas job, but he could be an outside-the-box option for Ole Miss. Leach, 58, has shown that he can win at some of the tougher Power 5 jobs and could thrive at a place with Ole Miss' resources and access to talent. The SEC is increasingly becoming a pass-heavy, offense-driven league, which favors Leach's approach. Recruiting and the staff Leach would compile are the big questions here.
Texas analyst Larry Fedora: It went downhill quickly for Fedora at North Carolina, but he led the Tar Heels to the ACC Championship game and reached bowl games in his first nine seasons as a head coach. Plus, he knows the state from his time at Southern Miss, where he went 34-19 with a Conference USA championship in 2011. Fedora, 57, provides experience and local knowledge that could be a boost for Ole Miss after the past two seasons.
Recommendation: Billy Napier
Norvell also would be a good choice, but he could be aiming a bit higher. Napier checks the boxes Ole Miss needs, providing a strong offensive scheme, the ability to recruit and knowledge of the SEC West from his time with Nick Saban at Alabama. Someone in the league is going to hire him soon, and Ole Miss would be smart to be at the front of the line.