The college coaching carousel likely will not start spinning for a few more months, but it's never too early to prepare candidate lists.
As usual, the number of names below will eclipse the amount of head-coaching vacancies in this year's cycle. Last year featured 27 changes, which impacted all 10 conferences and two FBS independents (UMass and Liberty). This year figures to be lighter, lacking many genuine Power 5 hot-seat situations -- and among that group, only two truly premier jobs in USC and Auburn. But anyone who follows the carousel knows not to be shocked by anything. Exhibit A: Kliff Kingsbury.
Speaking of Kingsbury, his performance with the Arizona Cardinals could shape this year's cycle, as more NFL teams could look to hire college coaches.
I went heavy on categorization in this year's candidate list, as there seems to be distinct tiers for both Group of 5 coaches and Power 5 coordinators looking to move up. A reminder: This is not a "best" coordinators list but rather one that assesses the likeliest coordinators to land head-coaching jobs for 2020. I surveyed multiple industry sources to review names but also to get a reasonable number of realistic candidates.
Power 5 coaches who could make moves
Matt Campbell, Iowa State: Other than Lincoln Riley, Campbell is generating the most buzz in the industry right now. NFL teams are watching him, and any major college vacancy should gauge his interest after consecutive eight-win seasons that include three wins over top-10 opponents. Campbell, 39, loves Iowa State, which is picked to finish third in the Big 12, and he would only leave for a job where he could compete for national championships. The Ohio native would be a natural fit the next time Notre Dame or Michigan has an opening.
Mark Stoops, Kentucky: Stoops, 52, is proof of what happens when a Power 5 school sticks with a good coach rather than caving to pressure for change. He led Kentucky to 10 wins in his sixth season at the school, after winning no more than seven games in the previous five. Kentucky's loyalty and a $4 million salary could keep Stoops in Lexington for the foreseeable future. He might want one more shot at a bigger job, though, especially if Kentucky continues to challenge in the SEC East.
Dino Babers, Syracuse: Babers, 58, last fall led Syracuse to its first 10-win season in 17 years. The Orange are one of the only ACC teams to challenge Clemson, a testament to the changes Babers has engineered at one of the tougher Power 5 jobs in the country. His dynamic personality and geographic diversity -- San Diego native; assistant or head coach in four of five power conferences; three head-coaching stops in three different states -- make him appealing. Ohio State had Babers on its list of Urban Meyer replacements, and Southern California should seriously consider him if it makes a change. One key will be whether Babers comes close to last year's success.
P.J. Fleck, Minnesota: Fleck, 38, is showing he can deliver results along with program branding. His second Minnesota team finished strong, ending a 14-game losing streak to rival Wisconsin and thumping Georgia Tech in the Quick Lane Bowl. If a young Golden Gophers team meets elevated expectations this fall, Fleck's stock will continue to rise. He might not be a fit everywhere, but his energy and ability to connect with players are undeniable. Other than one year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Fleck's experience is in the Big Ten and MAC, but his profile is big enough that he could be appealing in other regions.
Mike Leach, Washington State: Leach, 58, made his name at Texas Tech, but he has done arguably his best work over the past four seasons with Wazzu, which is 37-15 since 2015. Few FBS coaches have a stronger track record with quarterbacks -- Gardner Minshew became the latest -- and Leach has complemented his teams with better defenses lately. He has a unique personality and doesn't fit everywhere, but after the Tennessee dalliance, he could have one more big move left.
Barry Odom, Missouri: Odom, 42, likely doesn't get enough credit for stabilizing his alma mater after a very difficult time for the university. The Tigers have recorded consecutive bowl appearances and .500 records in SEC play. Although Odom's background is on defense, his recent teams have flexed offensively, which always appeals to athletic directors. Odom won't leave Missouri for any job, but he could have some appealing options if he delivers another strong season.
Justin Wilcox, California: Wilcox, 42, is only 12-13 at Cal, but his success in transforming the Bears' defense from among the Pac-12's worst to among the Pac-12's best -- after a strong season as Wisconsin's defensive coordinator -- has generated interest from other Power 5 schools. If Cal takes another step forward this fall, Wilcox should get calls and could fit in the Big Ten, even after spending most of his career on the West Coast.
Dave Clawson, Wake Forest: Clawson, 52, has recorded three consecutive winning seasons -- and bowl victories -- at one of the tougher Power 5 jobs. A recent contract extension through 2026 means he likely could finish his career in Winston-Salem, but one more jump also is possible. Clawson is a proven program builder who could elevate another one in the right situation, especially a school at which academics are prioritized.
Jeff Brohm, Purdue: Brohm, 48, likely is staying put after turning down hometown school and alma mater Louisville and receiving a new contract at Purdue that will pay him $36.8 million during the next seven years. But his profile -- dynamic and experienced offensive playcaller, strong recruiter -- makes him attractive to just about any Power 5 school seeking a coach. His buyout ($3.75 million) didn't change in the new deal, which could have some schools making a run at him.
James Franklin, Penn State: Franklin, 47, is mainly here because of one potential vacancy: USC. If the Trojans job opens, many in the industry expect him to be a top candidate, along with Babers, Meyer and others. Franklin is 45-21 at Penn State with a Big Ten title but wants to compete for national championships at a place completely invested in doing so. He would owe PSU only $1 million to leave this season.
Power 5 coaches who could jump to the NFL
Matt Rhule, Baylor: Rhule, 44, has interviewed for NFL jobs the past two seasons, and he made a strong impression. A move to the NFL seems inevitable, even though Rhule has spent all but one season coaching in college. He has Baylor on a good trajectory in just two years, after consecutive 10-win seasons at Temple. If the Jacksonville Jaguars need a coach, Rhule likely would be at the top of the list, given his relationship with executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin. Although the NFL seems like Rhule's next stop, Penn State also would target him if Franklin moves on. Rhule played linebacker at PSU.
Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma: Riley, 35, should be on the radar for any NFL team seeking new leadership. He has groomed the past two No. 1 overall draft picks in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, both of whom won the Heisman Trophy at Oklahoma. Although he has never coached in the NFL, Riley's offense has never been more appealing at the pro level. Riley has one of the best jobs in college football, and he is 24-4 at Oklahoma, with two CFP appearances. But if certain NFL teams come calling, especially the Dallas Cowboys, he might consider a jump.
Brian Kelly, Notre Dame: Kelly, 57, is entering his 10th year at Notre Dame, which has recorded consecutive seasons with double-digit wins for the first time since a three-year run from 1991 to 1993. The program's turnaround since 2016 is impressive, and Kelly could be thinking more about cementing his legacy at Notre Dame than starting over in the NFL. But the right situation could tempt him to take a shot at the pros after interviewing with the Philadelphia Eagles following the 2012 season.
Dan Mullen, Florida: Mullen, 47, is a career college coach who landed his dream job and has Florida trending upward in the SEC East. He also is a proven quarterback developer whose offense recently has become more appealing for pro teams. While it's not likely he leaves Gainesville, the chance to simply coach ball and avoid recruiting -- never his favorite thing -- could be enticing.
Matt Campbell, Iowa State: Campbell might soon have a decision between waiting out top college jobs at a place he likes or entertaining a move to the NFL. Campbell likes recruiting and development, and managing pro egos could turn him off, especially since he has never coached outside the college game. But NFL teams are aware of him, and his profile as a younger, offensive-minded coach fits what the league wants right now.
Jim Harbaugh, Michigan: Harbaugh, 55, will occupy a spot in this category until he actually leaves Michigan (or ends his career there). There are annual NFL inquiries for a man who led the San Francisco 49ers to a 44-19-1 record, three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl bid. If Harbaugh departs Michigan without beating Ohio State or winning the Big Ten, his legacy would be damaged. But if neither of those things happen this fall, he might look differently at an NFL reboot.
Group of 5 coaches who can move up (Tier 1)
Seth Littrell, North Texas: Littrell, 41, will be mentioned for most, if not all, Power 5 vacancies, especially if North Texas produces a third straight strong season. Littrell is a natural fit for the Big 12, which might not have any openings this year, but he also held coordinator stints in the Pac-12 (Arizona), Big Ten (Indiana) and ACC (North Carolina). After interviewing at Kansas State last year, Littrell should have options again. A $1.8 million buyout to leave North Texas could be a small obstacle.
Luke Fickell, Cincinnati: Fickell, 45, coached Cincinnati to 11 wins and a Top 25 finish in just his second season. He received serious interest from West Virginia but opted to remain at Cincinnati, which should be among the best Group of 5 teams this season. Considered a top recruiter for years, Fickell is proving himself as a program leader and should get interest for most Power 5 vacancies, especially in the Big Ten and ACC. His buyout at Cincinnati drops from $2.5 million to $2 million on Jan. 1.
Mike Norvell, Memphis: Norvell, 37, enters his fourth year at Memphis with a 26-14 record. Some are surprised he is still there, and 2019 feels like the right time for him to make a move, especially with athletic director Tom Bowen no longer in place. Norvell has some regional diversity as a Texas native who coached both in the Pac-12 (Arizona State) and ACC (Pitt) under Todd Graham. He needs the right opportunity but seems more than ready to lead a Power 5 program.
Bryan Harsin, Boise State: Harsin, 42, is another candidate with a sparkling record (52-15) who somewhat surprisingly hasn't left for a bigger role, despite being in a great job. He has had Power 5 opportunities and should continue to receive them if Boise State maintains its performance. Other than USC, there might not be an attractive option in the region, but Harsin could enter the mix for jobs in the South.
Other Group of 5 coaches to watch
Jason Candle, Toledo: Candle, 39, leads off the second wave of Group of 5 coaches with a 28-13 record at Toledo. His stock cooled a bit last season, as Toledo slipped from 11 wins to seven, but a strong rebound this fall would put him in the mix for potential Power 5 vacancies such as Boston College. Although Candle is from Ohio and has spent his entire career in the state, he would fit in other regions.
Jeff Monken, Army: Monken, 52, is one of the most intriguing candidates on the list. His work at Army, 29-10 the past three seasons, is spectacular and resonates nationally. Although Monken has won at both Army and Georgia Southern with an offense based around the triple option, he is open to more conventional schemes. The Peoria, Illinois, native would be a great choice if Illinois has an opening, and other Power 5 schools also should consider him.
Blake Anderson, Arkansas State: Anderson, 50, has demonstrated consistency at Arkansas State, winning seven to nine games per season with three division titles (outright or shared). He lacks signature Power 5 wins or a campaign with double-digit victories, but he has been involved for more prominent positions. Scott Satterfield (Appalachian State to Louisville) and Neal Brown (Troy to West Virginia) proved that Sun Belt coaches can vault to the Power 5. Anderson would seem to be the next in line.
Lane Kiffin, Florida Atlantic: The Lane Train slowed considerably in 2018, but Kiffin, 44, remains a fascinating option if he delivers a big year in Boca Raton this fall. Kiffin certainly isn't for everybody, and it will take the right athletic director and situation for things to work. His playcalling acumen and recruiting ability remain very appealing, though, and he could provide an immediate boost for lagging programs.
Bill Clark, UAB: No one questions the masterful job Clark, 51, has done at UAB, which is 19-8 since returning from its program hiatus. The question is whether a guy who has spent all but one year coaching in the state of Alabama would excel in another state or region. Then again, he might not need to. Several industry sources have mentioned Clark as a candidate at Auburn if Gus Malzahn is out. UAB to AUB is a big jump, but one Clark might be able to make.
Nick Rolovich, Hawai'i : Who's the next Mike Leach in terms of personality quirks and offensive proficiency? It might be Rolovich, 40, who has brought an Elvis impersonator to Mountain West media days and wore a hunting knife during a game against Nevada. He also knows how to do more with less, a requirement at Hawai'i, which has reached bowls in two of the past three seasons. Rolovich might need a Pac-12 job to open, but he could soon move up to the Power 5.
Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech: Holtz, 55, is among several older Conference USA coaches -- Marshall's Doc Holliday (62) and Middle Tennessee's Rick Stockstill (61) are others -- who probably don't get enough credit for their consistency. Since 2014, Holtz has averaged 8.4 wins, with five straight bowl victories. Holtz, who also had good runs at East Carolina and Connecticut, might have one more move left. A Power 5 school seeking experience and steadiness could look his way.
Lance Leipold, Buffalo: After an incredible run at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater -- six national titles, a 109-6 record -- Leipold, 55, is showing he can get it done in the FBS, as well. Last fall, he led Buffalo to 10 wins and the MAC East Division title, just two years after the Bulls finished 2-10. Leipold might not be the biggest name, but anyone who studies his profile -- former assistant for Tom Osborne and Barry Alvarez, head-coaching record of 132-33 -- could quickly become interested.
Billy Napier, Louisiana: Napier, 40, led Louisiana to a Sun Belt West Division title in his first year as a head coach. Although he needs a strong follow-up in Year 2, he could move up faster than many younger head coaches because of his unique profile. He worked for both Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban and gained Pac-12 experience as Arizona State's offensive coordinator in 2017. Another division title -- Louisiana is the preseason favorite in the West -- could get Napier traction for bigger jobs.
Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan: Creighton, 50, has stabilized one of the worst programs in the FBS, taking Eastern Michigan to bowls in two of the past three seasons. A head coach since 1997, Creighton has done very good work at off-the-radar programs. His name might not resonate yet, but he should get attention for bigger jobs, perhaps in the AAC, with a good season in Ypsilanti.
Power 5 coordinators to watch (Tier 1)
Mike Elko, Texas A&M: Elko, 42, enters 2019 as the coordinator likeliest to land a strong Group of 5 or Power 5 job in the upcoming cycle. Temple pursued him last year, but he opted to remain at Texas A&M for a second season. The Penn graduate and New Jersey native would fit well in the ACC, Big Ten or AAC, especially at schools with strong academic profiles.
Tony Elliott, Clemson: It's incredible that the offensive playcaller for Clemson's run of two national championships and four CFP appearances isn't leading his own program by now. Elliott, 39, keeps a lower profile than most and has been selective about pursuing jobs. He didn't get a look at Georgia Tech last year, which surprised some in the industry, and could feel a bit more urgency to make a move in the upcoming cycle.
Jimmy Lake, Washington: Lake occupies a great role with the Huskies but has had head-coaching looks at the college level, as well as NFL coordinator interest. The 42-year-old is an excellent recruiter and a dynamic personality, which matters more for defensive coordinators seeking head-coaching jobs. He would be in the mix for most Pac-12 vacancies and also could look at the right opportunity in the Mountain West, which figures to have several vacancies this year.
Brent Venables, Clemson: Venables, 48, will continue to receive head-coaching interest as arguably the nation's premier defensive coordinator. But he also is nearing a career stage when a move to head coach must happen sooner than later. Not many career defensive assistants land their first head-coaching jobs in their 50s. Venables has spent his entire career at three programs -- Kansas State, Oklahoma and Clemson -- but could fit at many places in the South, Southeast or Midwest.
Alex Grinch, Oklahoma: Grinch, 39, enters a situation that can catapult his stock, which already is pretty high after his work as Washington State's defensive coordinator. If Grinch boosts Oklahoma's woeful defense to respectability or better, he becomes even more desirable as a head-coaching candidate. Grinch is Gary Pinkel's nephew and an alum of coaching factory Mount Union, so the pedigree is strong. He also has regional diversity after working on both coasts and in three Power 5 leagues.
Dave Aranda, LSU: Aranda's coaching acumen is unquestioned throughout college football and the NFL, where he has had coordinator interest. The uncertainty is both his desire to be a head coach and his viability as a more reserved personality, which hurts defensive coaches more than their offensive counterparts. But Aranda, 42, had interest in Utah State's vacancy last year and could be a smart choice for upcoming Mountain West, Pac-12 or even Big Ten openings.
Other Power 5 coordinators to watch
Don Brown, Michigan: Brown, 64, has increased his national profile at Michigan, turning out strong defenses the past two seasons. He easily could finish his career in Ann Arbor but might want another chance to lead a program. Brown never really entered the mix at Maryland last year but would make sense at UConn if the school parts ways with Randy Edsall after this season.
Jeff Scott, Clemson: Scott, 38, is part of the coordinator triumvirate that has remained with Clemson during its historic run. Although he isn't the primary offensive playcaller, he has generated head-coaching interest and likely will again after the 2019 season. Scott might be more motivated than Elliott to run his own program but also can be selective. A good Group of 5 job, especially in the South or Southeast, could be the right landing spot for Scott.
Graham Harrell, USC: Harrell, 34, might be the most-watched new coordinator in the country, especially during the first half of the season. His work with the Trojans' offense will be a factor in how the school proceeds with head coach Clay Helton. A former Texas Tech quarterback from the Leach coaching tree, Harrell quickly built a strong reputation. He will be a top candidate at North Texas whenever Littrell departs and will gain other interest if he upgrades USC.
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin: Leonhard, 36, is another compelling candidate because he doesn't have to leave Wisconsin, the only place he intended to coach. He drew FBS coordinator and NFL interest a year ago, and while his stock isn't quite as high, a bounce-back season from Wisconsin would change things. Leonhard has the personality to be a head coach but won't leave a great situation at his alma mater unless something really good comes along.
Josh Gattis, Michigan: Gattis, 35, enters his first playcalling gig with incredible hype and expectations. If Michigan becomes more consistently productive on offense, especially in the passing game, and makes a Big Ten/CFP run, Gattis quickly could generate head-coaching interest. He is a strong recruiter who has worked at major programs. Playcalling proficiency is the final piece to his profile.
Danny Gonzales, Arizona State: Gonzales, 43, has made a strong impression in his first Power 5 coordinator gig after a good run under Rocky Long at San Diego State and New Mexico. Gonzales should be at the top of New Mexico's list if and when it makes a change but also could hold out for other vacancies in the Mountain West or elsewhere.
James Coley, Georgia: Jim Chaney's departure to Tennessee puts Coley, 46, in a position to shape the next phase of his career. As Georgia's offensive playcaller, Coley could play a significant role in helping the Bulldogs take the next step -- their first national title since 1980. If successful, Coley should attract head-coaching interest. He is very regional with only two coaching stops outside of his native Florida, but he boasts a strong reputation as a recruiter.
Clark Lea, Notre Dame: Lea, 37, enters just his second year as a coordinator, but his impressive start and personality are gaining industry attention. He has a lot of similarities to Elko, his mentor, and brings a mature, cerebral approach that works at academically oriented programs such as Notre Dame. If the Fighting Irish's defense continues to ascend, Lea could be an interesting option for certain schools.
Steve Sarkisian, Alabama: There might not be a higher-profile coordinator post in the sport, and Mike Locksley's move to Maryland last year shows that coaches can improve their image under Saban. That's the hope for Sarkisian, 45, who begins his second stint in Tuscaloosa. Sarkisian has a bigger hurdle than most after the way things ended at USC, but if he helps Alabama to a national title and Tua Tagovailoa to a Heisman Trophy, the view could shift dramatically.
Chip Long, Notre Dame: A young and fiery coordinator, Long, 36, has helped Notre Dame to a 22-4 record since his arrival. He brings an edge to the offense, especially up front, and has freed up coach Brian Kelly to be more of a CEO. An Alabama native, Long has worked in the Pac-12 (Arizona State), Big Ten (Illinois), AAC (Memphis) and at other stops. Long might need another year or two under Kelly but would be an option for top Group of 5 jobs and possibly some in the Power 5, including Illinois.
Brent Pry, Penn State: Pry, 49, is a talented coordinator at a high-profile program who could generate some Group of 5 head-coaching interest with a strong 2019 season. Not many defensive assistants in their 50s become first-time FBS head coaches, so there's some urgency for Pry, who has been on Franklin's staff since 2011 but has had several other stops in the South and Southeast.
Others to watch
Bret Bielema, New England Patriots: Bielema, 49, has settled into NFL life and might want to stay there. But his college coaching credentials remain strong, despite how things ended at Arkansas. He is a recognizable personality who could be seen differently after two years on Bill Belichick's staff.
Bo Pelini, Youngstown State: Pelini, 51, is happy in his hometown but also is nearing his next move, which could be an NFL coordinator gig or possibly a return to lead an FBS program. His 67-27 record at Nebraska -- nine or 10 wins each season -- still stands out. Although Youngstown State has slipped since reaching the FCS title game in 2016, a rebound season will boost interest in Pelini.
Todd Graham: Graham, 54, wouldn't be on every athletic director's short list, but he would be an attractive choice at certain spots. He has only three losing seasons out of 12 (four different spots), five seasons of 10 or more wins and a growing coaching tree that includes Mike Norvell and others. If Tulsa makes a change, could it look to bring back a guy who went 36-17 at the school?
Butch Jones, Alabama: Jones, 51, could be the latest to test how a coaching profile changes after time with Saban at Alabama. Like Graham, Jones wouldn't be a fit everywhere, and some will be concerned about how things ended at Tennessee. But Jones can recruit, and his success at Central Michigan and Cincinnati could intrigue certain Group of 5 programs.