We are in the midst of something special this college football season. The top two schools in every poll this year, Clemson and Alabama, return the two best quarterbacks in the country. Both quarterbacks have already won national titles and neither is even a senior yet.
Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence are going to go down as two of the most prolific quarterbacks in college football history. Though Lawrence came out on top in their lone matchup last January, let's turn to the vast Pro Football Focus database to determine which signal-caller we'd rather have this upcoming season and the professional outlook for each QB.
The grades
The first thing that jumped out when researching this duo was just how dominant both quarterbacks have been in the PFF grading system. Tagovailoa's 90.7 passing grade as a sophomore is the second best we've ever seen from a quarterback in his second season of college football (Mason Rudolph's 91.9 in 2015 ranks first). Lawrence's 90.6 passing grade as a true freshman is even more unheard of and blows away every other freshman season we've graded. The next-closest single season was an 81.5 passing grade by Texas Tech quarterback Alan Bowman this past season.
These two quarterbacks not only were consistent over the course of the season but showed the ability to take over games, as well. Tagovailoa had five separate games with elite passing grades over 90.0, and Lawrence did so in two of his last four games of the season. There were only 97 such games in all of college football last season and the duo combined for seven of them.
The stats
It's no surprise to find their stats are pretty good, too. Tagovailoa led the country in passer rating at 137.5, and Lawrence finished a "lowly" fifth at 111.4 (pick it up, dude). Though there is no denying that both were surrounded with a bevy of offensive weapons at their disposal, it's not as if they were racking up "fake" yards on screens and underneath throws. Tagovailoa had the 10th-highest percentage of his attempts targeted past the first-down markers, and Lawrence ranked 12th (out of 56 qualifying starting QBs).
These were NFL-level throws both were making consistently. Their ability to consistently hit throws in the intermediate area of the field (10-20 yards) is what separated them from the pack in college football. Tagovailoa had 15 touchdowns compared to only one interception on intermediate throws, and Lawrence had 12 touchdowns and zero picks. They ranked third and 13th, respectively, in terms of yards per attempt on said throws. There wasn't an area of the field that either were unable to attack at an elite level.
The traits
Traits are often thought of as abilities that won't show up on any stat sheet. At PFF, we respectfully disagree. Rather, we'd argue if that's the case, then your stat sheet simply isn't comprehensive enough. After tracking the width, depth, route, targeted player, time to throw, dropback type, separation, coverage type, read and ball location of every throw in college football last season, we have a pretty good handle on the traits that make both so special.
For Tagovailoa, it's his ball placement. His escapability and pocket presence are legit NFL traits, but what he did from an accuracy standpoint was special. Even with the fastest receiving corps in the country, Tagovailoa still hit his receivers with what we deemed as perfect ball placement more frequently than any other quarterback in the country.
In fact, 22.1% of his attempts were charted as such -- a figure that blows away last year's first-round quarterbacks, Kyler Murray (18.3%), Daniel Jones (16.4%) and Dwayne Haskins (11.4%). And that's not Tagovailoa racking up fake numbers on screens. If you limit it to throws of only 10-plus yards down the field, the gap remains. He had perfect placement 27.6% of the time compared to 23.4% for Murray, 23.7% for Jones and 19.2% for Haskins.
Though Tagovailoa's accuracy is his defining trait, Lawrence's is ... well ... everything. He has a stronger arm than most starting quarterbacks in the NFL. He navigates pockets like a quarterback who was drafted in 1999, not born in 1999 -- taking all of 13 sacks last year. He's completely unfazed by pressure and had a 101.2 passer rating when under pressure last season.
If we have to choose one trait, though, it's how absurdly fast he dissects a defense and works through progressions. Lawrence might as well be a walking whiteboard with his decision-making ability. Forget freshman mistakes, Lawrence doesn't make any mistakes with the football. His five turnover-worthy plays (throws deemed to be put in harm's way, even if they're not intercepted) were the fewest of any starting quarterback in college football last year.
Tagovailoa had 12, No. 1 draft pick Murray had nine and Baker Mayfield had 13 before he was drafted first overall. And the scary thing is, unless he's the only quarterback in college football history who peaked as a passer in his freshman year, Lawrence's decision-making is only going to get better.
The verdict
As good as Tagovailoa is, and could be, it's really not even close when comparing the two. Tagovailoa is the No. 1 player on our preseason 2020 draft board and still pales in comparison to the Clemson sophomore. Lawrence is different from anything we've ever seen at the college football level. True freshmen are never good at quarterback, yet there isn't a single area that goes into passing a football at which Lawrence wasn't already arguably the best in college football by the end of the year. He's a robot put on this earth to play the quarterback position.
Forget "Tank for Tua." If you're an NFL GM in need of a quarterback, you should do everything in your power to go 0-16 in the 2020 season. Lawrence is that special.