Oklahoma and Texas head into the season as the favorites in the Big 12, and both have national title aspirations.
But there are other talented teams the Sooners and Longhorns can't afford to look past.
We project where each team in the conference will finish.
T-1. Oklahoma Sooners
Last year on my summer radio show tour, I felt pretty confident saying, "Kyler Murray is a solid quarterback with starting experience, but no way can he match Baker Mayfield's remarkable 2017 numbers" (4,627 yards, 71% completion, 43 touchdowns, 6 interceptions). Well, Murray did just that, passing for 4,361 yards, completing 69 percent of his passes with 42 TDs and 7 INTs, and adding 1,001 rush yards. Oklahoma has eight starters back on defense, so it will be much improved.
T-1. Texas Longhorns
Texas made my surprise team list last year, and I had the Longhorns as a preseason top-10 team. It did not look good after a loss to Maryland in the opener, after a close win against Tulsa the following week or when trailing USC 14-3 in Week 3. But the Longhorns turned it around to reach the Big 12 title game and beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl to finish No. 9 in the polls. This year, they are less experienced (just eight returning starters) but arguably have more talent. Sam Ehlinger, who threw for 3,292 yards, 25 TDs and 5 picks a season ago, is a Heisman contender -- and Texas is a contender for the national championship.
3. TCU Horned Frogs
TCU might have had more injuries than any team in the country last season and needed to win its final three games to avoid a losing season. The offense brings back seven starters, including top rusher Sewo Olonilua (635 yards, 2 TDs), top receiver Jalen Reagor (1,061 yards, 9 TDs) and all five starters on the offensive line. Head coach Gary Patterson is the king of bounce-back seasons, and even though the Horned Frogs are only No. 85 on my experience chart, he will have the Frogs contending for the top defense in the Big 12 and the Big 12 title.
4. Iowa State Cyclones
From 1979 to 2016, Iowa State had exactly one year with eight or more wins. Matt Campbell won only three games in his first year but now has back-to-back eight-win seasons and the Cyclones' first two winning seasons in Big 12 play. Campbell has his best team yet at Iowa State this season, despite losing a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver, as 16 starters return. The Cyclones also get both Texas and TCU at home this season. They might have the conference's best defense and are legitimate contenders to play in the Big 12 title game.
5. Baylor Bears
At Temple, Matt Rhule went from two wins to six wins to double-digit wins in his first three years. At Baylor, he went from one win to seven wins and is out to take the next step in Year 3. This team could enter November as a contender in the Big 12, though it has a tough three-game stretch of TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas to begin the final month of the regular season. Fifteen starters return, including quarterback Charlie Brewer and leading tackler Clay Johnston (99 tackles in 2018). I believe this is the best team Rhule has had at Baylor.
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Last year was a crazy one for the Cowboys. They knocked off four ranked teams at home but also lost as the favorites to five unranked teams. They go from No. 119 on my experience chart to No. 53, so they are stronger, but they need to replace leading rusher Justice Hill. However, they return leading receiver Tylan Wallace (1,491 yards in 2018) and four starters on the offensive line. Before last season, Oklahoma State had produced three straight 10-win seasons, and it probably will not need to rely on a bowl upset to avoid a losing season this year.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech had four losses by nine points or fewer last season and missed out on a bowl by one game. The Red Raiders fired Kliff Kingsbury, who ended up getting the head-coaching job with the Arizona Cardinals. New head coach Matt Wells took Utah State from 6-7 in 2017 to 11-2 last season. Quarterback Alan Bowman adapted well to the new offense in the spring, but Tech must replace its top two receivers, who combined for 2,214 yards. The Big 12 schedule flips every year, and every odd-numbered year Texas Tech has made a bowl, which I expect to happen this year.
8. Kansas State Wildcats
It's tough to replace a legend in Bill Snyder, but new head coach Chris Klieman won four FCS national titles the past five years at North Dakota State and inherits my No. 4-rated defense in the Big 12. Klieman also inherits the top-rated special-teams unit and an offense that I expect to put up significantly better numbers than the 345 yards and 22.5 points per game it averaged in 2018. Kansas State was outgained by 67 yards per game in Big 12 play last season, so the Wildcats have some ground to make up. Even so, they would have been in a bowl game in 2018 if not for a blown 17-point fourth-quarter lead against Iowa State in the season finale.
9. West Virginia Mountaineers
A 59-56 loss to Oklahoma in the season finale kept West Virginia, which got as high as No. 6 in the rankings last year, out of the Big 12 title game. This year, the Mountaineers are No. 119 on my experience chart, as they have to replace a third-round NFL draft pick at quarterback and their top four receivers. West Virginia also has a new head coach, Neal Brown, who is putting in a new offense and defense. Brown went 4-9 his first year at Troy before posting three straight double-digit-win seasons. West Virginia is still capable of getting to a bowl, but this looks like a rebuilding year.
10. Kansas Jayhawks
Les Miles takes over and breathes new life and enthusiasm into a program that has not won more than three games since 2009. Kansas did make some strides last season with three wins, matching its total the three previous seasons combined. There is talent here, but Kansas is still waiting to see if Pooka Williams Jr. (1,125 rush yards, suspended in December) will return. Regardless, the Jayhawks should improve under Miles. Kansas was outgained by 121 yards per game in Big 12 play last year and still has a lot of ground to make up, with just 10 returning starters in 2019.