As a smiling Trevor Lawrence celebrated with his teammates on Jan. 7 after a 44-16 domination of Alabama at Levi's Stadium for the College Football Playoff National Championship, faces began to droop around the rest of college football.
Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers aren't going anywhere. In fact, it would be a mini surprise if Lawrence doesn't win at least one more national title before he leaves for the NFL two or three years from now. Though Alabama's dynasty has largely been defined by defenders and running backs, Clemson's emerging dynasty likely will be defined by two quarterbacks: Deshaun Watson and Lawrence.
With the return of the Future Power Rankings taking a look at the quarterback position, it's no surprise which team tops the list. Creating these rankings involves examining the next three seasons -- 2019, 2020 and 2021 -- and identifying which teams project best in certain areas. Thanks to draft departures, transfers, coaching changes, emerging performers, recruiting bonanzas and others factors, the current list looks quite different from its predecessor. I place a premium on proven players already on the roster but also consider incoming recruits. I also only evaluate players currently connected to teams, so though it's fun to speculate about future quarterback transfers, they're not part of this evaluation.
Let's get started.
1. Clemson Tigers
2018 ranking: 2
Returning starter: Trevor Lawrence
Scouting the Tigers: Lawrence's generational talent and eligibility situation made Clemson a very easy choice. Having become the first true freshman to lead his team to a national tile since 1985, the 6-foot-6 Lawrence is just getting started with the Tigers. He will enter his sophomore year among the favorites to win the Heisman. Though it's highly unlikely he carries Clemson through the entire three years, two years of Lawrence and one of another heralded recruit or transfer gives Clemson the premier quarterback situation in the country. Perhaps the only drawback is depth, although Chase Brice has three years of eligibility left and Clemson signed ESPN 300 pocket passer Taisun Phommachanh in the 2019 class.
2. Oklahoma Sooners
2018 ranking: 8
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Sooners: With Kyler Murray off to the NFL, OU technically doesn't have a returning starter or a backup familiar with the offense, as Austin Kendall transferred to West Virginia. But the outlook in Norman remains extremely promising. Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts, the 2017 SEC offensive player of the year, will lead the Sooners this fall. Although Hurts played behind Tua Tagovailoa in 2018, he showed obvious improvement in rallying Alabama past Georgia in the SEC title game. He also will allow young quarterbacks Tanner Mordecai and Spencer Rattler another year to develop. Rattler, ESPN's top-rated dual-threat QB and No. 29 overall player in the 2019 class, is pegged as OU's quarterback of the future and should thrive in Lincoln Riley's offense. No college coach has gotten more out of his quarterbacks early in his career than Riley at OU.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
2018 ranking: 3
Returning starter: Tua Tagovailoa
Scouting the Crimson Tide: If someone could guarantee Tagovailoa plays two more seasons, and the Tide actually retain an offensive coordinator (Steve Sarkisian) through 2020, a case could be made for them in the top spot. Alabama knows it will get one more year of Tua, the Heisman frontrunner for much of 2018, who finished with 3,966 pass yards, 43 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Tua then might turn things over to his younger brother, Taulia, the No. 5 dual-threat quarterback in the 2019. Mac Jones is also in the mix, and Alabama also signed ESPN 300 pocket passer Paul Tyson in the most recent class. One thing working against the Tide is their revolving door of offensive playcallers, especially when compared to Clemson and Oklahoma.
4. Georgia Bulldogs
2018 ranking: 1
Returning starter: Jake Fromm
Scouting the Bulldogs: Georgia's quarterback situation might not sparkle as much as it did a year ago, but the Bulldogs are still on very solid footing, at least in the short-term. Plus, how realistic was it that both Fromm and Justin Fields would remain in Athens together long-term? Fromm built on an excellent freshman season with even better numbers as a sophomore, completing 67.3 percent of his passes with 30 touchdowns and six interceptions. If he continues to ascend, Georgia should have an excellent chance to overcome its final hurdle and win its first national title since 1980. Fromm also would be a strong candidate to enter the 2020 NFL draft, leaving Georgia with a bit of uncertainty. Georgia flipped four-star quarterback Dwan Mathis from Ohio State in the 2019 class, but the key is whom it lands in 2020 -- either in recruiting or through the transfer portal.
5. Stanford Cardinal
2018 ranking: 6
Returning starter: K.J. Costello
Scouting the Cardinal: Stanford has some areas to upgrade before it challenges for the Pac-12 title again, but quarterback isn't one of them. Costello returns for his third season as the Cardinal's primary starter after recording the second-highest totals in team history for passing yards (3,540) and 300-yard passing games (7) last season. He has two years of eligibility left but will be a redshirt junior in 2019 and a likely candidate to go to the NFL draft if he builds on his 2018 production. Stanford also is seemingly set up well after Costello departs. Davis Mills, ESPN's No. 2 pocket passer and No. 61 overall recruit in the 2017 class, has three years of eligibility left and will enter his third year in the program this fall. Jack West, ESPN's No. 7 pocket passer in the 2018 class, begins his second season with the Cardinal.
6. Texas Longhorns
2018 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Sam Ehlinger
Scouting the Longhorns: A year ago, Texas didn't deserve to be ranked, as mediocre to poor quarterback play had defined the previous decade in Austin. But coach Tom Herman is a proven quarterback guru, and he showed it with Ehlinger, who made obvious strides as a sophomore. As Texas' primary quarterback, Ehlinger's completion percentage climbed more than seven points. He more than doubled his touchdown passes total (25 from 11), and his 16 rushing touchdowns broke Vince Young's single-season team record. Texas will get at least one and likely two more seasons of Ehlinger. The depth took a hit as Shane Buechele and Cameron Rising both transferred, although Casey Thompson, an ESPN 300 recruit in the 2018 class, remains as a possible successor. Texas also signed Roschon Johnson, ESPN's No. 3 dual-threat quarterback in the 2019 class, and has a commitment from ESPN 300 prospect Hudson Card for 2020.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
2018 ranking: 7
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Buckeyes: Ohio State expected to get more than one starting season out of Dwayne Haskins. Fifty touchdown passes and 4,831 yards later, Haskins unsurprisingly left for the NFL. The good news: if record-setting quarterback seasons are the norm under new Buckeyes boss Ryan Day, the program will be just fine. Day turns his attention to Justin Fields, immediately eligible for Ohio State after transferring from Georgia. Fields was ESPN's No. 1 overall recruit in 2018 -- one spot ahead of Clemson's Lawrence -- but couldn't unseat Fromm in Athens. Ohio State will get Fields for at least two seasons. Matthew Baldwin has been solid behind the scenes, and ESPN 300 quarterback Jack Miller arrives in 2020.
8. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2018 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Adrian Martinez
Scouting the Huskers: Quarterback situations change quickly in college football, and Nebraska's transformed in 2018, thanks to Martinez. As a true freshman, he set Nebraska's single-season total offense record by averaging 295.1 yards per game. His completion percentage (64.6) ranked No. 2 in team history, and he recorded 2,617 pass yards, 629 rush yards and 25 touchdowns. Martinez should continue to blossom under coach Scott Frost, and he has at least two more years at the helm of Nebraska's offense. He could quarterback the Huskers through the entire evaluation period as a national awards candidate. Nebraska has some insurance on its roster with Andrew Bunch and Noah Vedral, and just signed Luke McCaffrey, ESPN's No. 4 dual-threat quarterback in the 2019 class.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2018 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Ian Book
Scouting the Fighting Irish: Notre Dame is another team that entered 2018 with a murky outlook at quarterback and emerged with a brighter one, thanks in large part to a bold switch in late September. Book, an unheralded three-star recruit, emerged as an accurate and efficient passer. He completed 68.2 percent of his attempts for 2,628 yards and 19 touchdowns in nine starts. The Irish will almost certainly have Book for two more seasons as the starter. They also can turn to Phil Jurkovec, an ESPN 300 recruit in the 2018 class who has four years of eligibility left. Notre Dame is set to add another ESPN 300 quarterback, Drew Pyne, in the 2020 class, so there are some solid options after Book, as coordinator Chip Long puts more of his stamp on the offense.
10. Oregon Ducks
2018 ranking: 13
Returning starter: Justin Herbert
Scouting the Ducks: If this were a one-year projection, Oregon would have an argument to be No. 1. Herbert certainly seemed headed to the NFL at this time last year, but the local product will stick around Eugene as a senior and likely improve his draft stock. He received little help from his receivers in 2018, but Oregon will have more depth and added three ESPN 300 wideouts in its decorated 2019 class. The question is what happens with the offense after Herbert moves on. Tyler Shough, an ESPN 300 recruit in 2018, will have three seasons of eligibility left after this season. Oregon also added three-star Cale Millen in its most recent class, and likely will be looking for another quarterback to add more depth to the room.
11. Washington Huskies
2018 ranking: 4
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Huskies: Jake Browning statistically regressed during his final two seasons as Washington's starter after passing for 3,430 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2016. Has Chris Petersen lost his quarterback touch? It's highly unlikely, but we'll learn a lot during the next three seasons as Petersen works with more naturally gifted QBs. Georgia transfer Jacob Eason, ESPN's top-rated pocket passer and No. 13 overall player in the 2016 class, is eligible and back in his home state. If Eason blossoms under Petersen, Washington's offense should start putting up familiar numbers again. If not, the Huskies seemingly have insurance with sophomore Jake Haener and redshirt freshmen Jacob Sirmon and Colson Yankoff, ESPN's Nos. 2 and 4 pocket passers, respectively, in the 2018 class. Quarterback depth is clearly a strength for Washington going forward.
12. Michigan Wolverines
2018 ranking: 21
Returning starter: Shea Patterson
Scouting the Wolverines: The outlook here is certainly better than it was a year ago, as Patterson delivered a strong first season with Michigan (2,600 pass yards, 22 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 149.8 rating). Michigan needs more from the passing game, though, and hopes new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis can better feature the downfield game. Patterson will depart after the 2019 season, at which point Michigan would need its recruiting and development to pay off. Dylan McCaffrey, ESPN's No. 6 pocket passer in the 2017 class, is positioned to take over from Patterson. Joe Milton, an ESPN 300 quarterback in the 2018 class, provides Gattis and coach Jim Harbaugh another option.
13. Texas A&M Aggies
2018 ranking: 25
Returning starter: Kellen Mond
Scouting the Aggies: A year after squeaking into the rankings, Texas A&M's quarterback forecast looks much better. Mond showed clear improvement in his first season under coach Jimbo Fisher -- his second as a starter -- and racked up 3,107 pass yards, 474 rush yards and 31 total touchdowns. He has two years of eligibility left. The Aggies unsurprisingly lost Nick Starkel to transfer, but they have another option in redshirt freshman James Foster, an ESPN 300 prospect in 2018. Texas A&M also added four-star pocket passer Zach Calzada in the 2019 class. Calzada has enrolled early and could move up the depth chart quickly, possibly succeeding Mond in 2021.
14. Penn State Nittany Lions
2018 ranking: 5
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Nittany Lions: Trace McSorley will be missed in Happy Valley after a career filled with victories and team records. But Penn State seems positioned well for the next few seasons. Tommy Stevens eschewed the transfer trend to remain at PSU, where he has appeared in 23 games with more career rush yards (506) than pass yards (304). Stevens will enter spring practice as QB1, but he will need to beat out Sean Clifford, ESPN's No. 3 pocket passer and No. 80 overall player in the 2018 class. Clifford has three seasons of eligibility left. Penn State added to its quarterback depth in the most recent class with ESPN 300 dual-threat prospect Michael Johnson Jr.
15. Iowa State Cyclones
2018 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Brock Purdy
Scouting the Cyclones: After going through four different quarterbacks in his first two-plus seasons as ISU coach, Matt Campbell found his QB of the future midway through last fall. Purdy, the first freshman quarterback to start for the Cyclones since 1995, produced a record-setting season that included a 6-1 record in Big 12 play. He set a team record for single-season completion percentage (66.4) and finished fourth nationally in yards per completion (15.4). Although Purdy will miss top target Hakeem Butler, he should continue to grow under Campbell and has three years of eligibility left. Iowa State simply needs to supplement around Purdy. Re-al Mitchell enters his second year, and Iowa State signed 6-foot-6 dual threat Easton Dean in the 2019 class, in addition to securing a commitment from three-star Aidan Bouman for 2020.
16. Florida Gators
2018 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Feleipe Franks
Scouting the Gators: Few around the sport are surprised that Dan Mullen has quickly brightened the quarterback outlook in Gainesville. Franks made obvious strides under Mullen in 2018, passing for 1,019 yards more than he had the previous season and improving his touchdown-to-interception ratio from 9-8 to 24-6. The third-year junior could cover Florida at quarterback through the 2020 season. Kyle Trask provides some experience and insurance, but Mullen's work with Emory Jones, ESPN's No. 5 dual-threat quarterback and No. 59 overall player in the 2018 class, will be particularly interesting. Jones still has four years of eligibility left, as he appeared in only four games last season. Florida also added ESPN 300 prospect Jalon Jones in the 2019 class.
17. Arizona Wildcats
2018 ranking: 9
Returning starter: Khalil Tate
Scouting the Wildcats: Year 1 of Kevin Sumlin's tenure as coach didn't bring the expected results with Tate. Tate's rushing total dropped from a record 1,411 in 2017 to just 224 last year. He struggled with injuries and a new offensive scheme, although his overall passing numbers -- 2,530 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions -- weren't bad. The good news is, he returns for his final season and should build on a strong closing stretch (15 touchdown passes in the final four games). There's some depth behind him with Rhett Rodriguez, Kevin Doyle and Jamarye Joiner. Doyle was Arizona's highest-rated recruit in 2018, and Sumlin's recruiting talent showed this year as he landed four-star pocket passer Grant Gunnell, a Houston native who had originally committed to the coach when he was at Texas A&M.
18. USC Trojans
2018 ranking: 23
Returning starter: J.T. Daniels
Scouting the Trojans: There's a lot of doom and gloom around Clay Helton's program right now, but the quarterback outlook could quickly change USC's fortunes. Sure, Daniels wasn't Trevor Lawrence last year, but he showed snippets of why he arrived with such acclaim. If new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell further develops Daniels, who has three seasons of eligibility left, the Trojans should feel confident about their passing game, as there's enough talent at wide receiver. Jack Sears and Matt Fink have been in the program for a while and will back up Daniels, and USC added four-star pocket passer Kedon Slovis in the 2019 class. The Trojans also have a commitment from Bryce Young, ESPN's top-rated dual-threat quarterback and No. 51 overall player in the 2020 class. Like Daniels and other USC quarterbacks, Young comes from prep powerhouse Mater Dei High School.
19. Houston Cougars
2018 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: D'Eriq King
Scouting the Cougars: New coach Dana Holgorsen inherits an excellent short-term situation with King, a Maxwell Award semifinalist who passed for 2,982 yards and 36 touchdowns, while rushing for 674 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. Clayton Tune provides some insurance after appearing in five games (starting two after King suffered a knee injury). Tune has three years of eligibility left. It will be fascinating to see the first quarterback who Holgorsen pursues and ultimately lands, whether it's through traditional high school recruiting or the transfer portal. He had tremendous success with Florida transfer Will Grier at West Virginia. Houston also has a long history of productive quarterbacks and a coach who knows how to develop them.
20. Utah State Aggies
2018 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Jordan Love
Scouting the Aggies: If you're surprised to see Utah State in the rankings, you haven't seen Love play. He propelled the Aggies to an 11-win season and a No. 22 final ranking in 2018, setting five team records, including pass yards (3,567) and pass touchdowns (32). Love has two years of eligibility left, so the outlook would change significantly if he enters the NFL draft in 2020. But assuming Love remains with Utah State through the 2020 season, the Aggies should be in great shape. The key is how coach Gary Andersen and offensive coordinator Mike Sanford prepare for life after Love. Utah State signed three-star pocket passer Josh Calvin in the 2019 class.
21. Auburn Tigers
2018 ranking: 11
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Tigers: Coach Gus Malzahn reclaims the offensive playcalling duties as he enters a critical season on the Plains. Malzahn has produced strong offenses at Auburn, but must show he can develop a quarterback he recruited after success with transfers Cam Newton, Nick Marshall and most recently Jarrett Stidham. Malik Willis backed up Stidham the past two seasons but will be challenged by Joey Gatewood and Bo Nix, who both have more recruiting fanfare. The 6-foot-5 Gatewood was ESPN's No. 3 dual-threat quarterback and No. 36 overall player in the 2018 class. He struggled in Auburn's 2018 A-Day spring game but has had a full year to develop. Nix, ESPN's No. 2 pocket passer and No. 23 overall player, has enrolled early and could fast-track his way to the top job early in his career.
22. Washington State Cougars
2018 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Cougars: I owe Gardner Minshew a lifetime of apologies -- or at least a few mustache trimmers -- for not including the WSU QB in last year's list. The reality is, as long as Mike Leach coaches the Cougars, the quarterback situation in Pullman should scare the rest of the Pac-12. Washington State once again dipped into the transfer portal for a productive player in Gage Gubrud, a national awards candidate at Eastern Washington who started 28 games and passed for 9,984 yards and 87 touchdowns. Gubrud joins veterans Trey Tinsley and Anthony Gordon for the 2019 competition, and Washington State also has some younger options for the following years, like redshirt freshman Cammon Cooper and true freshman Gunner Cruz.
23. Baylor Bears
2018 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Charlie Brewer
Scouting the Bears: Baylor's inclusion may surprise some, but not those who have watched Brewer's development during his first two collegiate seasons. After winning Big 12 co-offensive freshman of the year honors in 2017, Brewer eclipsed 3,000 pass yards last fall with 19 touchdowns, while adding 375 rush yards and seven more scores. He performed well for much of Big 12 play and should be poised for even more production during his final two seasons. Brewer almost certainly is a four-year player, but Baylor has other options like Gerry Bohanon, an ESPN 300 selection in the 2018 class and the nation's No. 10 dual-threat quarterback. Baylor also just signed Jacob Zeno, ESPN's No. 8 pocket passer in the 2019 class.
24. Miami Hurricanes
2018 ranking: 18
Returning starter: N'Kosi Perry (partial season)
Scouting the Hurricanes: After Clemson, the ACC has a significant drop-off in its quarterback forecast. And Miami certainly didn't do much last season to generate confidence. But there are reasons for optimism, as new coach Manny Diaz scored a coup by hiring Alabama assistant Dan Enos as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Enos will work with several highly recruited players, including Perry, ESPN's No. 3 dual-threat quarterback and No. 84 overall player in the 2017 class, and Jarren Williams, ESPN's No. 6 dual-threat QB and No. 106 overall player in the 2018 class. Miami also adds Ohio State transfer Tate Martell, who ranked a few spots behind Perry in ESPN's 2017 class rankings. The big question is whether Martell gets a waiver to play this fall or will have to wait until 2020. But Miami has options, and, after last year, can't get much worse at this position.
25. UCF Knights
2018 ranking: 10
Returning starter: Darriel Mack Jr. (partial season)
Scouting the Knights: Few quarterback situations on this list changed more dramatically since late November than UCF's. Awards candidate McKenzie Milton suffered a catastrophic knee injury that has required multiple surgeries. Milton, who has one season of eligibility left, almost certainly wouldn't return until 2020. Redshirt freshman Darriel Mack showed some promise as a dual threat and will have three years of eligibility left. UCF also added graduate transfer Brandon Wimbush, who started for Notre Dame in 2017 and at the start of the 2018 season. Wimbush is a dynamic athlete who could fit better in coach Josh Heupel's offense as he plays his final season this fall.