The 2018 college football coaching carousel is shaping up as one where the supply (strong Group of 5 candidates) significantly outweighs the demand (open Power 5 jobs).
The low number of vacancies is expected. The other part of the equation, meanwhile, is a bit surprising. This has been an excellent season for Group of 5 coaches. As Week 11 kicks off, the Group of 5 has 18 teams with seven or more wins, just two less than the Power 5. While undefeated UCF justifiably owns the spotlight, seven other Group of 5 teams are 9-1 or 8-2, including the Knights' next opponent, No. 24 Cincinnati (9-1).
It sets up an interesting internal debate for Power 5 schools on the fence about their coaches: Do we make a move this year and capitalize on the strong candidate pool, or wait and possibly compete with more suitors in 2019?
So far, only three Power 5 schools -- Louisville, Maryland and Kansas -- have announced changes. We'll soon know if others join them. I surveyed several industry sources this week to identify the 12 likeliest top Group of 5 candidates to lead Power 5 programs in 2019.
1. Neal Brown, Troy
Age: 38
2018 record: 8-2
Overall record at school: 33-15
Overall record as head coach: 33-15 (four seasons)
I've written it before, but it bears repeating: Since 2016, only four FBS coaches have won more than 80 percent of their games. Three are named Saban, Swinney and Meyer. The fourth is Brown, who has Troy positioned for a third consecutive 10-win season and possibly back-to-back Sun Belt titles. This season might be his greatest achievement. Troy went through significant roster attrition after 2017, and then injuries and suspensions/dismissals hit the Trojans' offensive skill group the past few weeks. "Our guys have responded," Brown said this week. "Through the process of having success over the last two years, that's carried over. ... They never blinked. They didn't question anything that they were doing. They believed in each other. They believed in the systems we had in place."
2. Bryan Harsin, Boise State
Age: 42
2018 record: 8-2
Overall record at school: 50-14
Overall record as head coach: 57-19 (six seasons)
Harsin somewhat quietly is putting together another strong season at his alma mater. Last Friday's come-from-behind win over Fresno State keeps Boise State very much alive in the Mountain West race. Harsin has won at least nine games in each of his previous four seasons and 10 or more three times. He has turned down several Power 5 opportunities, and it would take something really appealing for him to leave Boise State. He could be intrigued if a job like Colorado opened up, even though another former Broncos coach, Dan Hawkins, made the move to Boulder and it didn't work out. Harsin's buyout is only $500,000 if he leaves by Jan. 10, an advantage should he move to a Power 5 job.
3. Mike Norvell, Memphis
Age: 37
2018 record: 6-4
Overall record at school: 24-12
Overall record as head coach: 24-12 (three seasons)
The 2018 season hasn't gone quite as planned, which hurts Norvell's stock a little. But his overall profile -- young, offensive-minded, 18 wins in first two seasons as a head coach -- remains very strong. Although Norvell seemingly had more landing spots in last year's coaching cycle, he could be an interesting candidate at a place like Louisville or Purdue, which would want to maintain its offensive success if Jeff Brohm departs. If North Carolina opens, athletic director Bubba Cunningham knows Norvell from their time at Tulsa together. Norvell's immediate appeal would be enhanced if Memphis beats SMU (road) and Houston (home) to finish 8-4. His buyout to leave Memphis remains a reasonable $500,000.
4. Scott Satterfield, Appalachian State
Age: 45
2018 record: 7-2
Overall record at school: 48-24
Overall record as head coach: 48-24 (six seasons)
It feels like Satterfield should get way more credit for what he has accomplished at his alma mater. He took over as coach the year before Appalachian State transitioned to the FBS and, since the move, boasts a record of 44-16 with two league titles, three bowl victories and several strong performances against Power 5 teams. Satterfield is seen as more regional than others on this list, which might limit him, but an ACC job like North Carolina or even Louisville would make sense. Another Sun Belt title -- and a win over Troy's Brown next week -- would enhance Satterfield's profile even more. Like others, he also has a low buyout to leave ($425,000).
5. Jason Candle, Toledo
Age: 39
2018 record: 5-5
Overall record at school: 26-12
Overall record as head coach: 26-12 (three seasons)
There are parallels between Candle and Norvell. Like Memphis, Toledo hasn't had a great season after losing a star quarterback and other key pieces, but Candle's overall profile, highlighted by last season's MAC championship, makes him an appealing candidate. As Iowa State coach Matt Campbell sees his stock soar, the connections between him and Candle -- also a Mount Union product, also an offensive-minded coach who succeeded Campbell at Toledo and took the program even further than Campbell did -- enhance Candle's potential candidacy. Candle could be a good fit if Purdue loses Brohm, or perhaps at a place like Kansas or North Carolina.
6. Jeff Tedford, Fresno State
Age: 57
2018 record: 8-2
Overall record at school: 18-6
Overall record as head coach: 100-63 (13 seasons)
Few coaches on this list have a more impressive overall profile. Tedford is the only coach to have sustained success at Cal in the modern era (44-15 between 2004 and 2008). His work at Fresno State is nothing short of remarkable, as a team that went 1-11 in 2016 has won 75 percent of its games since he took over. The Bulldogs are among the most balanced teams in the country this season. Tedford is an older coach with a contract that could easily allow him to finish his career at his alma mater. His deal also includes a $1.5 million buyout. But Tedford has shown he can turn around downtrodden programs and win in a Power 5 league. Colorado could intrigue him, and other Power 5 schools looking for a steady hand could call him.
7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo
Age: 54
2018 record: 9-2
Overall record at school: 22-25
Overall record as head coach: 131-31 (12 seasons)
No coach on this list has enhanced his profile more this season, and perhaps no coach attracts more curiosity because of his unique career path. Leipold's overall record will get any athletic director's attention, but 109 of those victories came at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater, where Leipold won six national titles, reached seven national title games and lost only six games. After a 7-17 start at Buffalo, Leipold got the team bowl-eligible in 2017 (the Bulls were snubbed) before the breakthrough this fall. "Last year ... whether it be wins or losses, even the close losses, were definitely ones that you can say you learn and grow from," Leipold said. "Our players gained confidence from that season ... to see how close they really were. And now they've been able to put that to benefit this year." Industry insiders love what Leipold has done. Would Kansas let the fact Turner Gill also came from Buffalo prevent a push for Leipold? It shouldn't.
8. Seth Littrell, North Texas
Age: 40
2018 record: 7-3
Overall record at school: 21-16
Overall record as head coach: 21-16 (three seasons)
Littrell entered the season as a hot name and remains on the radar for certain jobs despite North Texas splitting its past six games. Although Littrell seems best suited for the Big 12 -- he played at Oklahoma and started his coaching career at Kansas and Texas Tech -- the 40-year-old has worked in the Pac-12 (Arizona), Big Ten (Indiana) and ACC (North Carolina). He would be a good fit at Kansas and brings a track record of exciting offense and quarterback play. Littrell also might bring along talented coordinator Graham Harrell. His contract could be a stumbling block, as he would reportedly owe North Texas $1.68 million if he leaves after this season.
9. Bill Clark, UAB
Age: 50
2018 record: 9-1
Overall record at school: 23-12
Overall record as college head coach: 34-16 (four seasons)
Everyone around the sport is in awe of what Clark is doing at UAB, which returned to competition last fall following a two-year hiatus. Not only did the Blazers win right away, but Clark now has the team positioned for its first-ever 10-win season and a possible Conference USA championship. "We're dealing with young men so it's a constant of, 'Let's be in the moment,'" Clark told me last month. "'Let's remember what we worked for.'" Any school facing unique circumstances in rebuilding a program would be wise to consider Clark. The only possible drawback here, according to industry sources, is that Clark has spent all but three years of his 29-year coaching career at high schools or colleges within Alabama. His ability to succeed in a new region could give some schools pause.
10. Matt Wells, Utah State
Age: 45
2018 record: 9-1
Overall record at school: 43-33
Overall record as college head coach: 43-33 (six seasons)
Wells went from hot candidate after a 19-9 start at Utah State to hot-seat candidate after going 9-16 the previous two seasons. But his stock is back up -- way up -- as Utah State puts together one of its greatest seasons ever. After a 7-point loss at Michigan State in the opener, the Aggies have won nine straight, tying a team record, and can set a new mark with a 10th victory this week against struggling Colorado State. Wells played quarterback at Utah State and has spent much of his career in the region, but he's from Oklahoma and held jobs at Louisville and Navy. He could be an interesting candidate for Kansas, Louisville and possibly Colorado. If he leaves after the season, Utah State would be owed $800,000.
11. Luke Fickell, Cincinnati
Age: 45
2018 record: 9-1
Overall record at school: 13-9
Overall record as head coach: 19-16 (three seasons)
It will be interesting to see how Fickell is viewed in this cycle. Some schools might want to see whether he can follow up an impressive Year 2 at Cincinnati with another in 2019. Others might make their move immediately, recognizing that Fickell has been a fairly big name for some time because of his successful tenure as an Ohio State assistant. His one-year stint as the Buckeyes' head coach after Jim Tressel's resignation in 2011 unfairly hurt his chances for a permanent job, which makes this season at Cincinnati even more validating. Fickell is an exceptional recruiter and could fit at Louisville, Kansas or Purdue, as long as the Boilers were willing to hire a defense-oriented coach. His buyout could be an obstacle. Cincinnati would be owed $3 million if he leaves before. Dec. 31 and $2.5 million if he leaves after.
12. Charlie Strong, USF
Age: 58
2018 record: 7-3
Overall record at school: 17-5
Overall record as head coach: 70-42 (nine seasons)
Strong remains an appealing candidate because he has led Power 5 programs, remains an elite recruiter (especially in talent-rich Florida) and connects well with players. He has an impressive-looking record at USF, although a deeper dive shows a lack of signature wins. Strong still has opportunities for some this season, as USF visits Temple this week before hosting No. 11 UCF next Friday. If the Bulls win those two and their bowl game, Strong would record his fourth season of 10 or more wins in his past seven as a head coach. Would Louisville bring him back for a second go-round if it can't land Brohm? It seems unlikely but you never know. Maryland also could be a good landing spot for Strong, who could stabilize the program.
Others to watch
Several promising Group of 5 coaches didn't make this list -- some are still really early in their tenures -- but they're still worth mentioning: Louisiana Tech's Skip Holtz (underappreciated with a 45-31 record in Ruston); UCF's Josh Heupel (9-0 in his first season); Temple's Geoff Collins (13-10 in two seasons with the Owls); Eastern Michigan's Chris Creighton (Eagles are bowl-eligible for the second time in three seasons); Nevada's Jay Norvell (6-4 in second season); Arkansas State's Blake Anderson (37-24 overall, no losing seasons) and FIU's Butch Davis (15-8 since his return to college coaching). If a school is open to a unique scheme, Army's Jeff Monken (26-10 since 2016; 70-44 overall as a head coach) and Tulane's Willie Fritz (168-89 as a college coach) are both good options.