Kiper & McShay: Biggest NFL draft risers, and who needs to surge

ESPN NFL draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay answer three questions at the midway point of the college football season, taking a closer look at prospects who have come out of nowhere and guys who need to improve quickly.

They also pick out 2019 prospects rising up draft boards and give their picks for under-the-radar prospects to keep an eye on, the College Football Playoff and CFP MVP.

Answering questions at midseason

Which prospect has risen the most on your board so far?

Kiper: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama. He was on my radar after starting Bama's final two games last season, but he has risen all the way to No. 13 on my updated Big Board after a fantastic start to 2018. The 6-foot-2, 194-pound Thompson is a natural playmaker (two interceptions, five pass breakups this season) with great range, and he can tackle, an underrated but necessary skill for defenders entering the league.

Now, Thompson is only a third-year sophomore with just a handful of starts for the Crimson Tide, so he could still come back to school in 2019. But he might already be the best free safety in this class -- if he enters the draft. Alabama has breezed through its schedule so far, but it travels to Baton Rouge in three weeks, and I can't wait to see how Thompson and a loaded defense fares against LSU.

McShay: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama. He has outplayed his highly touted teammates Raekwon Davis and Isaiah Buggs on the Alabama defensive line this season. Coming into the campaign, the third-year sophomore was barely on my radar, but he has been fantastic for the Crimson Tide, and the buzz around him has been building.

Through seven games, the 6-foot-4, 295-pound lineman has 7.5 TFL and 1.5 sacks, along with 8 quarterback hurries. He's doing a great job with his hands at the line, too. Williams is playing like a potential future first-round pick.

Which prospect needs a second-half surge?

Kiper: Bryce Love, RB, Stanford. There were two concerns about Love as an NFL prospect entering the season. Would his body hold up behind a worse offensive line, and would Stanford get him more involved in the passing game to show off his versatility? Those questions get a resounding "no" so far, as the 5-foot-10, 202-pound Love has struggled to stay on the field due to injuries, and he hasn't looked like his explosive self when he has played. Plus, he has six catches and hasn't been a receiving target.

The 2017 Heisman runner-up needs to get healthy to get back in the first-round range. We knew he didn't have the versatility as former Cardinal star Christian McCaffrey, but he's still a great runner when at his best. I want to see him get healthy before the all-star bowl games in January and NFL combine in March. I have him as a Day 2 pick right now.

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BC stops NC State in red zone with interception

Boston College's Zach Allen makes the Eagles' 9th interception of the season to halt an NC State drive.

McShay: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri. I was low on Lock coming into the season, giving him just a third-round grade, but I got excited about his early play. In his first two games of the season, he showed a lot more poise and pocket presence, throwing eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in wins over UT Martin and Wyoming. Not bad for a guy learning to play a pro-style brand of QB for the first time in his life, including playcalling verbiage, protections and pre-snap reads of defensive structures.

But the past three games have not gone well, as he's thrown five interceptions and only one touchdown. Against Georgia, Lock didn't necessarily play poorly -- his receivers let him down in a big way -- but there were body language issues and frustration was obviously setting in. South Carolina was the most concerning of the three straight losses because his poor decision-making in the second half cost Missouri the game. This past weekend, Lock and the Tigers were simply overmatched versus Alabama but he also made some critical red-flag errors.

He's an attractive project with a huge arm, size (6-foot-4, 225 pounds) and athleticism, but I would struggle to invest a first- or second-round pick on Lock at this point. Missouri has some key matchups against Kentucky and Florida over the next three weeks.

Who's the under-the-radar potential first-rounder for 2019 that you'll be watching closely the rest of the way?

Kiper: Brian Burns, DE, Florida State. OK, Florida State isn't usually a school I'd say is off the radar for the NFL draft, but the Seminoles are not a good team this season. People need to watch them for Burns, who could be an elite NFL pass-rusher. He can bend the edge as well as any player in this class, and he already has seven sacks this season. With a lean 6-foot-5, 235-pound frame, Burns is still growing. But he's one of the best pure outside pass-rushers in this class, and he could be a top-10 pick, depending on his combine workout.

McShay: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State. Last season at this time, we didn't know much about Haskins. Now the third-year sophomore is emerging as one of the purest pocket passers in college football, completing 72 percent of his passes this season for 2,331 yards through seven games. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound quarterback is not overly mobile -- just 30 rushes for 49 yards this year -- and I wasn't particularly excited by his play in the Penn State game, Ohio State's biggest test to date. But I'm left really impressed by his touch, timing and ball placement.

A couple of scouts I've talked to say there's buzz in Columbus that Haskins might consider leaving after this season. I'm not saying he should -- history says he shouldn't -- and I'm certainly not saying he's a first-round pick, but as far as interesting prospects to watch during the second half of the season go, Haskins fits the description.

Prospects on the rise

These are the 2019 NFL draft prospects moving up boards:

Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama

Wow, this dude can run. A junior from New Orleans, Smith had two catches for 123 yards two weeks ago against Arkansas, including a touchdown. On just 17 receptions this season, the 6-foot-4, 241-pound tight end has 334 yards for a 19.6 average. He wasn't on the radar in the preseason, but if he enters the 2019 draft, he'd be one of the first tight ends off the board. He can be a tough matchup in today's pass-happy NFL, especially in multiple-TE sets. -- McShay

Zach Allen, DE, Boston College

The word I'd use to describe Allen: consistent. He doesn't have poor performances. He consistently plays well, beating tackles with rip and swim moves on the edge, and beating guards with push when moved inside in BC's 4-3 defense. Allen had three tackles for loss, a sack and blocked a field goal in the win over Louisville on Saturday, and he's up to 11 TFL and 4.5 sacks this season after having 15.5 TFL and 6 sacks in 2017. He is solid as a rock and extremely versatile, which is a big reason why he's rising. At 6-foot-5, 285 pounds, I see Allen as a 4-3 end in the NFL, and teams always have a need for pass-rushers who can play the run. -- Kiper

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Almost famous under-the-radar prospects

Keep an eye on these potential Day 2 or Day 3 picks:

Jesper Horsted, WR, Princeton

The Tigers are 5-0, and they have two pass-catching prospects in Horsted and Stephen Carlson. Both had monster days in the blowout of Brown on Saturday, as Horsted caught 13 passes for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns while Carlson put up a line of 8-127-1. Horsted, who is also a center fielder on the Princeton baseball team, already has 8 touchdowns this season after catching 92 passes for 1,226 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2017. At 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, he is a matchup problem for Ivy League defensive backs, and he has great body control and good hands. Horsted is likely a Day 3 pick, but I want to see an official 40-yard dash time before projecting a round. -- Kiper

Kyle Phillips, DE, Tennessee

In Saturday's win against Auburn, Phillips led the Vols with nine tackles while also recording half a sack and forcing a fumble. Alontae Taylor recovered the fumble for a touchdown to give the Volunteers a 27-17 lead late in the third quarter. Phillips certainly has an NFL frame at 6-foot-4 and 264 pounds with excellent length. He can play on the inside and outside and is strong one-on-one. There are flashes of him getting off blocks, and he chases the run and the passer with above-average effort. However, he has limited upside as a pure pass rusher. With just average athleticism, it gets ugly when he plays high and he tends to get overwhelmed by double teams. I see Phillips as a Day 3 pick. -- McShay

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College Football's Most Valuable Players

These aren't our picks for the Heisman Trophy winner. These are the MVPs of CFB.

Kiper's top three:

1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: He still leads FBS in Total QBR (97.4), and he still hasn't thrown an interception. Now, let's hope Tagovailoa's knee injury isn't serious.

2. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma: Sitting right behind Tagovailoa in Total QBR is Murray, whose 96.9 rating is more than 10 points better than the No. 3 quarterback (Appalachian State's Zac Thomas).

3. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State: Haskins, who ranks No. 4 in Total QBR (85.9), has back-to-back games with more than 400 passing yards, and he has 9 touchdown passes to 2 picks over that span.

McShay's top three:

1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: Tagovailoa threw two absolutely perfect deep balls in the first half on Saturday against Missouri, but looked tight in the second half. He overthrew two open targets and his stride didn't look the same before re-injuring his knee while sliding. No player has come close to his level of performance this year, but management of that knee injury will be critical during the second half of the season.

2. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State: It was a sloppy win over Minnesota, but Haskins and the Buckeyes still scored 30. He completed 75 percent of his throws and now has 28 touchdown passes this season.

3. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma: The Sooners need to rebound after the loss to Texas, but Murray's production has been fantastic. He has three games this season in which he was responsible for at least five touchdowns.

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If the College Football Playoff started today ...

Kiper's top four teams:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Notre Dame

McShay's top four teams:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Notre Dame