As Ryan McGee wrote, college football is a game of inches, and in no season was that more true than this one. Michigan, LSU, Louisville and others can look back on this season and wonder how different the outcome would have been if one or two season-defining plays had gone the other way.
Ultimately, those teams lost a number of key games and did not have the résumés worthy of competing for a title. But does one inch here or there really change how strong a team is going forward?
With the College Football Playoff semifinals three days away, we couldn't help but wonder which non-semifinal team would have had the best chance to win it all -- in other words, what could have been if one or two plays went the other way.
Below is a ranking of the eight teams most likely to win the championship if they had merely made the playoff. In order to craft the list, we utilized FPI's playoff projections to run each non-playoff team through the bracket as the No. 4 seed. The percentages below refer to each team's chance to win the championship if it had replaced Washington as the fourth team in the field, meaning it would have faced Alabama in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and then the winner of Ohio State-Clemson in the national title game.
1. Michigan: 20 percent chance to win it all
Penn State was probably the "most deserving" team left out of the playoff, but by most measures, Michigan was the "best" non-playoff participant. The Wolverines rank in the top three in nearly every power rating, including ESPN's Football Power Index, Sagarin's predictor ratings and Football Outsiders S&P+ ratings. Everyone knows that Michigan has an elite defense, but what makes it dangerous is balance; the Wolverines are the only team that ranks in the top 10 in FPI's offensive, defensive and special teams projections, and their overall speed and talent rivals that of the other playoff teams. Would that have been enough to beat Alabama? We won't ever know for sure, but FPI would give Michigan about a 40 percent chance to knock off the defending champs in the Peach Bowl, which is a higher percentage than Washington currently has (32 percent) in FPI's playoff projections.
2. Louisville: 12 percent chance to win it all
Obviously, Louisville's chance to win the title begins with Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, who is the type of game-changing quarterback that can single-handedly take over a game (just ask Florida State). He also is the type of dual-threat, mobile QB that has historically given Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide problems. Sure, Jackson and the rest of the Cardinals ended the season on a skid, but with a month to figure out their issues, they could look more like the team that began the season on a tear than the one that finished it in a slump. The rest of the Cardinals should not be overlooked, either. Louisville has speedy receivers on the outside and a defense that ranks ninth in FPI's defensive projections. FPI would give the Cardinals have a 30 percent chance to beat Alabama in the Peach Bowl and about a 44 percent chance to beat Ohio State or Clemson in the title game.
3. LSU: 11 percent chance to win it all
With four losses in 11 games, LSU is a tough team to defend in FPI's projections, but it's important to look beyond a team's record when rating a team's true strength. After all, the Tigers were one second away from beating Auburn, 1 yard from knocking off Florida and one field goal from downing Wisconsin. They also entered the fourth quarter tied with Alabama and held the Tide about 30 points below their season average. LSU's offense remains a major question, but with or without a healthy Leonard Fournette, there are few teams that have more NFL-caliber talent than the Tigers.
4. Florida State: 11 percent chance to win it all
Like LSU, Florida State was probably stronger than its record indicated this season. The Seminoles certainly have lingering issues on the offensive line, but with Dalvin Cook and Deondre Francois, they have a top-three projected offense. Their defense also improved as the season progressed and can get after the quarterback as well as any unit in the country. One underlying reason for the Seminoles' projection is the game sites of the playoff. Florida State would have to travel about 230 miles to the Georgia Dome for the semifinal game and 200 miles to Raymond James Stadium for the national championship game. Distance traveled matters and could have been one factor that gave the Seminoles an advantage if they had made the playoff field.
5. Oklahoma: 10 percent chance to win it all
Few teams finished the season as strongly as Oklahoma, which completed the regular season with nine straight wins. Many will point to the Sooners' two early nonconference losses, but their improvement offensively should not go unnoticed. Behind Heisman finalists Baker Mayfield and Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma finished first in offensive efficiency and Total QBR. The Sooners' defense and performance in big games remain questions, but their offense would at least give them a chance against the nation's elite. For reference, FPI would give Oklahoma a 35 percent chance to beat Ohio State in a potential national title game if the two programs met in a rematch of their regular-season game.
6. Auburn: 9 percent chance to win it all
Admittedly, this is the biggest head-scratcher on the list. Auburn lost four games this season, and unlike LSU's near-victories, a few of the losses weren't close. What does FPI see in the Tigers? First, their defense can keep them in games. Auburn finished 12th in defensive efficiency and held nine of its 12 opponents, including Clemson, LSU and Arkansas, to fewer than 20 points. Auburn would also have the benefit of a short travel distance to both of its playoff sites, which is worth a few points in the overall playoff projections (though Alabama would have a similar distance to the semifinals). Auburn lost by 18 points to the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, so it's hard to imagine things going the other way. In a one-game, single-elimination format, however, the Tigers should not be completely overlooked.
7. USC: 7 percent chance to win it all
The final two teams on this list, USC and Penn State, come with a quick caveat. FPI's projections are based on season-long performances, because that has proved to be more predictive. If FPI were to weigh recent games more heavily, both teams would probably rank higher on the list. USC finished the season with eight straight wins by an average margin of 19.8 points per game. Since the start of October, only Alabama had a higher average game score than the Trojans (game score is a stat that accounts for quality of the opponent, location of the matchup and how well a team controlled the game). USC has all the tools -- an efficient quarterback, stingy defense and talent at the skill positions -- to make a deep playoff run. FPI still has questions about how its defense began the season, so it would give USC about a 7 percent chance to win it all as the No. 4 seed.
8. Penn State: 6 percent chance to win it all
Like USC, Penn State entered playoff selection on a long winning streak. During their nine-game streak, the Nittany Lions showed the ability to grind out tough games and blow out lesser opponents. They rank eighth in average game score since the start of October and have shown the capability to beat top teams (even in a fluky way) such as Ohio State and Wisconsin. Still, FPI would give Penn State the lowest chance of any team on this list (21 percent) to beat Alabama in the Peach Bowl and a mere 6 percent chance to win the two games needed for the title. The Nittany Lions have proved doubters wrong all year, so maybe the Big Ten champs could have made a playoff run similar to the 2014 Buckeyes.
The eight teams listed above will not be competing for a national title, but that doesn't mean we can't wonder, "What could have been?"