For the past three months, we've discussed and debated which teams will make the College Football Playoff. With the field set, the conversation shifts from "Who's in?" to "Who's gonna win?" With the help of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) we'll break down and project the current four-team playoff field. We'll begin with each of the two national semifinals and move on the most likely College Football Playoff National Championship matchups. Does anyone have a chance to knock Alabama from the top? Let's take a look.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 4 Washington Huskies
FPI projection: Alabama, 68 percent chance to win
FPI favors the Crimson Tide by about 7 points against the Pac-12 champion Huskies. Alabama has dominated its recent competition, but the Tide haven't faced a team as balanced (top 10 offensive and defensive projection) and explosive as Washington all season. One other factor impacting FPI's projection is proximity to the Peach Bowl, which is played in Atlanta. FPI accounts for distance traveled, and Washington is traveling nearly 2,000 more miles than the Crimson Tide.
Alabama wins if: Its defense keeps doing what it's been doing. The Tide's defense is adding 22 points per game to their net scoring margin, the highest total by a team in the last decade by nearly four points. They are allowing an FBS-leading 0.8 points per drive and 3.9 yards per play, so it could be a long day for Washington's top-tier offense.
Washington wins if: It wins the turnover battle. Washington has forced more turnovers (33) and has the best turnover margin (plus-21) of any team in the country. As Florida can attest, Alabama can convert turnovers into points quickly, so avoiding the big mistake and likely forcing a few turnovers over its own will be essential to Washington's success. It sounds simple and obvious but cannot be emphasized enough.
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
No. 2 Clemson Tigers vs No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes
FPI projection: Ohio State, 55 percent chance to win
FPI favors the Buckeyes by about 2 points in the Fiesta Bowl, but this is projected to be one of the closest games of bowl season. Both teams have top-12 projected offenses and defenses, but Ohio State's defense is expected to be the strongest unit of them all.
Clemson wins if: It protects the football. Again, it sounds obvious, but Clemson has a plus-4.5 scoring margin in the four games (Troy, Louisville, NC State and Pitt) it has turned the ball over at least three times and a plus-29.4 margin in the nine games it turned the ball over fewer than three times. Deshaun Watson has the second-most interceptions of any player since the start of last season.
Ohio State wins if: It gets Curtis Samuel involved. Samuel is averaging a Power 5-high 9.8 yards per touch and has found the end zone 15 times. Some of Ohio State's closest games (Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan) were when Samuel had fewer than 12 touches.
College Football Playoff National Championship
FPI projections: Alabama 42 percent, Ohio State 26 percent, Clemson 19 percent, Washington 13 percent
FPI gives the Crimson Tide a 42 percent chance to win their second straight title and fifth in the past eight years. A few weeks ago we broke down why Alabama isn't a lock to win it all in the eyes of FPI, and playoff structure and offensive questions still loom large in the projections.
The most likely national title game (38 percent chance) features No. 1 Alabama facing off with No. 2 Ohio State in a rematch of the 2015 Sugar Bowl. Ohio State shocked the Crimson Tide in that game without J.T. Barrett, so a rematch of Urban Meyer and Nick Saban with Barrett healthy should be one for the ages. Meyer and Saban would meet with a combined eight national titles, the most all-time by opposing coaches in a bowl game.
There is also a 31 percent chance that we will see a rematch of last year's national title game between Alabama and Clemson. That game caused Saban to pronounce Deshaun Watson "the best player in college football since Cam Newton" after Watson accounted for 478 total yards, the most ever in a national championship game.
No matter who wins the national title, the third edition of the College Football Playoff will feature three teams trying to catch up and pass Alabama.