Could any team in the 2015 field have won the 2014 College Football Playoff?
It is a question that obviously will never be answered on the field, and certainly none of the teams in the 2015 playoff field need to give a second thought about preparing to face Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston. And why should they? Ohio State ran roughshod through the CFP last season from the No. 4 spot, and if there are any comparisons to be made from last season to this, each team in the mix of the 2015 College Football Playoff field should hope to emulate the Buckeyes. Are any of them equipped to do so?
We compared the stats of each of this season's playoff contenders with the pre-playoff stats of last year's Buckeyes to find out:
Alabama Crimson Tide: More likely than Buckeyes to run through last year's field
Alabama's most significant edge over the 2014 Buckeyes is on the defensive side of the ball. The Crimson Tide defense has excelled in two key areas to keep opponents off the scoreboard, better than the other 2015 playoff contenders and better than the Alabama defense that ultimately couldn't shut down Ezekiel Elliott in the Sugar Bowl last season. Alabama is allowing a touchdown on only 9.3 percent of opponents' non-garbage drives, the only team in the past two years to keep that category under 10 percent. Only 17.4 percent of opponent drives cross Alabama's 30-yard line, also the lowest rate in the nation this season.
Another strength Ohio State brought to the table last year that only Alabama can match is that the Crimson Tide have frequently played like a championship team already. We measure single-game opponent adjusted efficiency, and Alabama has had seven 90th percentile victories this season. That's equal to Ohio State, Oregon and Alabama last year coming into the playoff and more than Clemson (5), Oklahoma (4), Michigan State (3) and last season's Florida State (2). Combined with the best defense of that group of eight teams, Alabama is a strong candidate to claim this season's (and if it had the opportunity, last season's) championship.
Clemson Tigers: Equally likely as Buckeyes to run through last year's field
The Tigers have had an efficient offense this season and have been as explosive as any team in the playoff field. A little more than 20 percent of Clemson's offensive non-garbage drives this season have averaged at least 10 yards per play, the 17th-best percentage in the nation. Ohio State's offense last season was even more explosive (24 percent averaged at least 10 yards per play) and was more efficient as well. The Buckeyes averaged 3.6 points per drive last season heading into the playoff, 0.8 points per drive better than the Tigers to date this year.
Ohio State's defense was strong as well (1.5 points per drive), but Clemson has been even better. The Tigers lead the nation in first-down rate, allowing a first down or touchdown on only 58 percent of opponent drives. They also rank first in stopping opponents from generating methodical drives -- only 4 percent of opponent drives last at least 10 plays. Our numbers suggest that the 2015 Tigers and 2014 Buckeyes are about equal in terms of overall strength.
Oklahoma Sooners: Less likely than Buckeyes to run through last year's field
Oklahoma is the No. 4 seed and might be a popular pick to claim the title, having just finished an impressive November run into the playoffs. Our numbers like the Sooners' chances in 2015 but wouldn't like their chances if they sneaked into last year's field.
The Sooners have the most efficient offense of the 2015 playoff field, but they're not on the same plane as Ohio State was heading into the 2014 postseason. Oklahoma has earned 56 percent of available yards measured from starting field position to the end zone this season -- very good, but merely equal to Alabama's offensive efficiency last season and well behind Ohio State (64 percent) and Oregon (68 percent) in 2014. At times the Sooners can pressure opposing defenses, but they haven't been as consistently dominant as the best teams in last year's field. Oklahoma ranks second nationally this year and is the best of the 2015 playoff teams in stringing together consecutive-possession wins (stops on defense, scores on defense), but they would rank fourth among last year's playoff field in that category.
Michigan State Spartans: Less likely than Buckeyes to run through last year's field
The Spartans have proved to be as resilient and tough down the stretch as any college football team this season by winning all three of their marquee Big Ten matchups in the final minutes or seconds of the game. They've also capitalized on turnovers better than any team in the nation this year, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive turnover percentage (7.2 percent of drives) and defensive turnover percentage (17.7 percent of opponent drives). They have earned more value off turnovers than any team in this year's field, but that might not be enough. Oregon was even better going into last season's playoff in turning turnovers into points, which the Ducks did in both the semifinal and championship games.
Where Michigan State is most vulnerable is on special teams, which might sound counterintuitive because those units ultimately helped the Spartans get to this point with a huge game-winning play against Michigan and a field goal for the win against Ohio State. But over the course of the season, the Spartans are costing themselves more value on special teams than any other team among the eight in last year's or this year's field, and eventually that will catch up to them in a big spot. The Buckeyes had one of the best punting units in the nation last season to create favorable field position advantages, and Michigan State's punt unit has been one of the worst this year.