A lot can happen in college football between now and the start of the season in August -- and for that matter between now and when I release my annual preview in May. However, I thought I would take an early look at teams that appear poised to increase or decrease their win totals from 2013.
Here's a look at two teams that had great seasons in 2013 but are projected to decline in 2014, and three teams with winning records in 2013 that are poised to rise next season.
Falling
Louisville Cardinals
2013 record: 12-1
It was all laid out for the Cardinals in 2013 as they welcomed back projected top-five NFL draft pick Teddy Bridgewater, returned 10 starters on defense and had a schedule tailor-made for an undefeated season. Their only blemish ended up being a blown 28-7 third-quarter lead against UCF, but they still finished 12-1 with a rout of the Miami Hurricanes in the Russell Athletic Bowl. With back-to-back top-15 finishes, the Cardinals appeared to be a rising program, but things are about to change -- and not for the better.
In 2014, they will be without star quarterback Bridgewater, who despite having what many deemed a disappointing 2013 campaign, still completed 71 percent of his passes with a 31-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio. They also will not have coach Charlie Strong, who is off to Texas. If replacing their coach and quarterback wasn't enough, their schedule also will get exponentially tougher with a step up to ACC play. It includes home games against defending national champion Florida State and what should be a top-20 Miami team. Their road schedule includes trips to Clemson and Notre Dame. After a combined 23-3 record the past two seasons, the Cardinals could be in store for at least four losses this fall.
Missouri Tigers
2013 record: 12-2
Missouri was coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2012, and while I projected them to be much improved in 2013, the Tigers exceeded everyone's expectations with an SEC East title, a top-five finish in the AP and coaches' polls, and the No. 8 spot in the BCS standings. While the Tigers were clearly a dominant team -- 11 of their 12 wins came by double digits -- 2014 figures to be a much tougher road, especially with expected improvement by both Florida and Georgia in the SEC East.
The Tigers lose quarterback James Franklin, and while backup Maty Mauk played well in Franklin's absence this past season, he does not have Franklin's mobility. On the defensive side, the Tigers will have to replace their best player at each level in defensive end Michael Sam, linebacker Andrew Wilson and cornerback E.J. Gaines. While they do avoid Alabama and Auburn from the SEC West, they will have to travel to both Florida and South Carolina in SEC East play. With a tougher schedule and several key departures, I predict the Tigers will take a step back and not finish among the top 10 teams in 2014.
Rising
Georgia Bulldogs
2013 record: 8-5
In the first week of October, the 4-1 Bulldogs had SEC and BCS title aspirations, but several injuries to their elite skill-position players saw them split their remaining eight games and finish just 8-5. While the injuries did not bode well for them in 2013, it did give several players a jump-start to 2014. That includes quarterback Hutson Mason, who played much of the last three games when the SEC's all-time leading passer, Aaron Murray, was sidelined for the year by a torn ACL. Mason played well in wins over Kentucky and Georgia Tech, and threw for 300-plus yards in Georgia's bowl game. Also returning in 2014 is running back Todd Gurley, who despite missing three games with an ankle injury nearly topped 1,000 yards for the second consecutive season. Fellow RB Keith Marshall, who was a freshman sensation along with Gurley in 2012, missed most of 2013 and should be ready to go this fall. The same can be said for the Bulldogs' best wide receiver, Malcolm Mitchell, who also missed most of last season.
The defense in 2013 was very inexperienced and returned only three starters. After allowing 400-plus yards in four of its first five games, the D allowed only two more 400-plus-yard games in the final eight contests. In 2014, the Bulldogs will field one of the most experienced defenses in college football and could have as many as 10 returning starters. They host an inexperienced Clemson team in the opener and then have two weeks to prep for South Carolina. The Bulldogs should then be favored in at least eight of their next 10 games and are poised for a return to double-digit wins, like they had in 2011 and 2012.
Michigan Wolverines
2013 record: 7-6
I pegged the Wolverines for this article last year (to be much improved), but by the time May came around, they had lost linebacker Jake Ryan for the first half of the season, and I projected them lower than just about every other preseason publication. After a 5-0 start, the Wolverines limped to a 7-6 finish, and coach Brady Hoke is starting to feel some heat in Ann Arbor. The 2014 season looks just as daunting on the surface, as the Wolverines have road trips to Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State, and they lose arguably their best player in offensive tackle Taylor Lewan, a projected first-round NFL draft pick.
However, the Wolverines will be in much better shape at nearly every single position outside of wide receiver. That starts with the return of quarterback Devin Gardner. He will get pushed by the highly touted Shane Morris, who started Michigan's bowl game. Running back Derrick Green was ranked as one of the top backs in the country coming out of high school, and after struggling early, he started to show some of his talent at the end of 2013.
On the other side of the ball, after ranking as one of the best in the country in 2011 and 2012, the defense took a step back, but figures to be improved this fall, thanks to having a healthy Ryan for all of the season. Outside of the three tough road trips mentioned earlier, the Wolverines should be favored in their remaining nine games, as they avoid both Wisconsin and Nebraska out of the Big Ten West. After two straight disappointing campaigns, I expect the Wolverines to get to at least nine wins in 2014 (for only the second time in the past six years).
Miami Hurricanes
2013 record: 9-4
On Nov. 1, the Hurricanes were unbeaten at 7-0 and their No. 7 ranking was their highest spot in nearly a decade. But starting with a blowout loss to Florida State, the Hurricanes limped to a 9-4 finish and did not receive a single vote in the final AP Top 25 poll. However, things are looking up in 2014 as coach Al Golden continues to rebuild the program, which will be one year further removed from its two-year bowl ban and the possible NCAA sanctions hanging over it.
While the Hurricanes will lose quarterback Stephen Morris, he had a sub-par 2013 season, and the new quarterback will be surrounded by some elite skill-position talent. It was no coincidence that Miami's season started to slide when running back Duke Johnson was injured, but he should be ready to go in 2014, along with wide receiver Phillip Dorsett and freshman All-American Stacy Coley. While the defense struggled down the stretch, it still was much improved from 2012's unit. All-ACC linebacker Denzel Perryman returns, and Golden has done a nice job of recruiting on that side of the ball. The schedule features a tough nonconference road trip to Nebraska, but outside of a home game against Florida State, the Hurricanes should be favored in at least nine of their other 10 games, giving them a great shot of achieving their first double-digit win season since 2003.