After a 2021 season in which underdogs had their fourth straight profitable season (52.6%), the 2022 season begins with underdogs again being the story. Ten teams are listed as home underdogs, the most in a single Week 1 in the Super Bowl era.
Since the 1970 merger, home underdogs have covered 54.2% of the time, including 56.4% in the last 10 seasons. Divisional home underdogs have done even better, going 13-2-1 ATS in the past 10 seasons in Week 1, including 10-5-1 outright.
Last season, underdogs had their best opening week since 1999, going 12-4 ATS. They had a winning outright record (9-7), the first time that had happened since 1983.
One of the most notable underdogs is the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills. It's just the fifth time that the reigning Super Bowl champion has been a home underdog in Week 1. The previous four went 4-0 ATS. The Bills enter the season as Super Bowl favorites, making it just the second time in the past 40 seasons that the reigning champion will face the preseason favorite in Week 1 (2013: Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos).
The favorite has flipped in two games (Bills-Rams, Browns-Panthers). Notable Week 1 line movements:
Panthers from +4.5 to -2.5 vs Browns
Rams from -1 to +2.5 vs Bills
Broncos from -3.5 to -6 at Seahawks
Commanders from -4.5 to -3 vs Jaguars
Ravens from -4 to -7 at Jets
Saints from -3 to -5.5 at Falcons
Chiefs from -3 to -4.5 at Cardinals
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams, Thursday at 7:20 ET
The Rams are 5-0 outright and ATS in Week 1 under Sean McVay.
The Rams are the sixth reigning Super Bowl champion since 2000 to be an underdog in their season opener the following season. The previous five went 4-1 outright and ATS. The last Super Bowl champion to be an underdog in Week 1 was the 2018 Philadelphia Eagles (beat the Falcons as 1-point home underdogs).
The Rams are the fifth reigning Super Bowl champion to be home underdogs in Week 1 the following season (2018 Eagles, 2016 Broncos, 2002 Patriots, 1983 Washington). The previous four are 4-0 ATS, and the last three won the game outright.
Since 2009, Week 1 home underdogs in prime-time games are 12-4 ATS. Underdogs are 5-1 outright and ATS in the last six opening Thursday games.
Sean McVay is 1-3 outright and ATS as a home underdog. All four games went over the total.
Josh Allen is 19-9-1 ATS on the road in his career in the regular season.
Josh Allen is 11-4-1 ATS in nonconference games.
Josh Allen is 13-6-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 in regular-season games.
The Rams opened as one-point favorites when this line was first released.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders (-3), Sunday at 1 ET
Jacksonville has lost 17 straight road games outright. This is the fourth road game since that streak began where it has not been an underdog of at least 3.5 points. It is 0-3 ATS in the previous three instances.
Washington is 4-8 ATS as a favorite since 2018 and 3-4 ATS as a favorite under Ron Rivera.
The Jaguars were 5-12 ATS last season, tied with the Panthers for the worst mark in the NFL. Jacksonville was 0-5 ATS in nonconference games last season.
Washington is 1-5 ATS in September games under Ron Rivera (0-3 ATS last season).
The Commanders opened as 4.5-point favorites when this line was first released.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 ET
The Lions' past 11 Week 1 games have gone over the total.
The past eight Eagles-Lions meetings have gone over the total (since 2007).
The Lions were 10-3 ATS last season when getting at least four points and 1-3 ATS in all other games.
The Lions were 6-2 ATS at home last season (all as an underdog).
The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites when this line was first released.
Indianapolis Colts (-8) at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 ET
Since 2008, the Colts are 1-12-1 ATS in Week 1 games (2-12 outright). They have lost eight straight Week 1 games outright.
Since 2002, all six teams to be at least 7.5-point home underdogs in their season openers covered the spread.
The Colts are 9-2 ATS against the Texans since 2007.
Home underdogs in divisional games are 13-2-1 ATS in Week 1 in the last 10 seasons (10-5-1 straight up). Since 2009, divisional home underdogs are 19-5-1 ATS in Week 1. Over the last five seasons, they are 5-0 ATS and 4-0-1 outright, including the Texans beating the Jaguars as 3-point home underdogs last season.
The Colts are 8-4 ATS as road favorites under Frank Reich (6-2 ATS since 2020).
The Colts opened as 7.5-point favorites when this line was first released.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-2.5), Sunday at 1 ET
The Panthers are 3-8 outright and ATS as favorites under Matt Rhule with five straight losses. They are 1-6 outright and ATS as home favorites under Rhule.
Last season, Carolina went 2-12 ATS and outright in its past 14 games, and it went 0-7 outright and ATS in its past seven games. Overall, the Panthers were 5-12 ATS last season, tied with the Jaguars for the worst mark in the NFL.
The Browns are 0-16-1 outright in Week 1 games since 2005. They are 5-11-1 ATS in that span, though they have covered in three of the past five seasons.
Baker Mayfield is 10-20-1 ATS in his career as a favorite (20-11 outright).
The Browns opened as 4.5-point favorites when this line was first released.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3), Sunday at 1 ET
Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0 outright and ATS against the Patriots (the teams' past three meetings). Bill Belichick has not lost four straight games vs single opponent since becoming Patriots head coach in 2000.
Unders are 8-4 in New England's past 12 season openers, including 4-0 in the past four.
Since 2017, the Dolphins are 10-3-1 ATS as home favorites.
This is just the fourth time since 2004 that the Dolphins have been favored over the Patriots (2020, 2013, 2008). The last time the Dolphins were at least 2.5-point favorites over the Patriots was in 2003.
The Patriots are 7-8 ATS as underdogs since Tom Brady retired. Overall, Bill Belichick is 55-30-1 ATS as an underdog with the Patriots.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET
Lamar Jackson is 16-8-2 ATS in his career on the road.
John Harbaugh is 10-4 ATS in Week 1 games (5-1 ATS last six seasons).
The Jets have lost 12 straight September games, going 1-11 ATS in that span. They are 0-6 ATS in September in the past two seasons. Last year, all three September Jets games went at least 10 points under the total.
The Jets are 12-21 ATS over the last two seasons, tied with the Jaguars for the worst mark in the NFL (6-11 ATS last season).
Since 2001, home underdogs of at least seven points are 9-2 ATS in Week 1.
The Ravens opened as four-point favorites when this line was first released.
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 ET
The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in Week 1 over the past six seasons.
The Falcons were 0-4 ATS as home underdogs last season.
The Saints are 35-14 ATS on the road since 2016, 24-9 ATS since 2018 and 18-7 ATS since 2019.
The Saints have covered four of the past five meetings and 15 of the past 23 meetings. The Saints have also won and covered the past four meetings in Atlanta.
Home underdogs in divisional games are 13-2-1 ATS in Week 1 in the past 10 seasons (10-5-1 straight up). Since 2009, divisional home underdogs are 19-5-1 ATS in Week 1. Over the past five seasons, they are 5-0 ATS and 4-0-1 outright.
The Saints opened as three-point favorites when this line was first released.
San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 ET
The Bears were 0-5 ATS as home underdogs last season and 3-10 ATS overall as underdogs.
The 49ers covered their final five games and 10 of their last 12 games last season.
Since 2001, home underdogs of at least seven points are 9-2 ATS in Week 1.
The 49ers opened as 6.5-point favorites when this line was first released.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5), Sunday at 1 ET
The Steelers were also 6.5-point road underdogs in Week 1 last season, upsetting the Bills, 23-16.
The Bengals have not been favored by at least six points against the Steelers since 2013.
The Bengals won and covered both meetings last season, and they have covered three straight meetings.
Since 2018, the Steelers are 19-7-1 ATS as a regular-season underdog.
Steelers road games are 38-17-1 to the under since 2015.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3), Sunday at 4:25 ET
The Chargers are 7-1-2 ATS in their past 10 Week 1 games (covered three straight). The Raiders are 3-0 ATS in their past three Week 1 games.
The Chargers' last nine September games have gone under the total.
The Chargers' final six games last season all went over the total.
The Chargers opened as four-point favorites when this line was first released.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 ET
The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS in Week 1 games under Kliff Kingsbury. They are 17-7 ATS in September/October games under Kingsbury. They are 12-2 ATS in September/October games as an underdog under Kingsbury, going 9-4-1 outright. They are 9-0 ATS as an underdog of five or fewer points in that span, going 8-0-1 outright.
The Chiefs were 0-3 ATS in September last season.
Patrick Mahomes is 20-12-1 ATS on the road in his career.
The Cardinals are the second team since 2000 to be at least a four-point home underdog in Week 1 following a playoff appearance, joining the 2007 Jets, who lost 38-14 as 6.5-point home underdogs against the Patriots.
The Chiefs opened as three-point favorites when this line was first released.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:25 ET
The Packers are 32-17 ATS in the regular season under Matt LaFleur, the best mark of any team since 2019.
The past four meetings all went over the total.
Since 2016, the Vikings are 7-3 ATS as home underdogs, including a 31-3 win over the Packers last season as 1.5-point home underdogs.
Home underdogs in divisional games are 13-2-1 ATS in Week 1 in the past 10 seasons (10-5-1 straight up). Since 2009, divisional home underdogs are 19-5-1 ATS in Week 1. Over the past five seasons, they are 5-0 ATS and 4-0-1 outright.
This line opened at pick'em when first released.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (-5.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET
The Giants are 0-6 in September games in the past two seasons (2-4 ATS). Since 2016, the Giants are 6-13-1 ATS in September, and in the past 10 seasons, they are 10-20-1 ATS in September.
The Giants are 0-5 outright and ATS in their past five Week 1 games.
The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their past six games as an underdog.
Mike Vrabel is 6-10 ATS when laying at least five points.
The Titans opened as 6.5-point favorites when this line was first released.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:20 ET
The Cowboys were 13-4 ATS last regular season, the best mark in the NFL, including 11-1 ATS in conference games. They covered their first seven games last season, including in Week 1 as 9-point underdogs against the Buccaneers.
Tom Brady is 2-5-1 ATS in his past eight Week 1 games (0-2 ATS with Buccaneers).
Tom Brady is 1-10 ATS in his past 11 regular-season prime-time games (1-8 ATS with Buccaneers).
Dak Prescott is 15-9-1 ATS as a regular-season underdog, including 5-2-1 ATS as a home underdog. Since 2018, the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs (including non-Prescott starts).
Since 2009, Week 1 home underdogs in prime-time games are 12-4 ATS.
The Buccaneers opened as three-point favorites when this line was first released.
Denver Broncos (-6) at Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 ET (ESPN)
The Seahawks are 17-7 as home underdogs under Pete Carroll, including 14-3 ATS when getting at least three points. Overall, Pete Carroll is 48-31-2 ATS as an underdog.
Russell Wilson was 4-10 ATS in his last 10 road games with the Seahawks.
Since 2009, Week 1 home underdogs in prime-time games are 12-4 ATS.
Ten of the past 12 Monday games last season went under the total including playoffs. Road favorites were 2-7 ATS on Monday Night Football last season.
The Broncos were 3.5-point favorites when this line was first released.